Banana
Very, very seldomly incorrect
Well, well, well if the last weekend's matches prove anything, it's that you can't prove anything in this league. We retained our automatic promotion spot despite a reversal to Coventry (our 3rd defeat in a row) chiefly because Swansea (who we were noted are (still) in a false position) conceded a remarkable 4 goals at Huddersfield. That's over 25% of the goals that they had conceded for the entire season before kick-off. I'm not sure that's ever happened before when over halfway through the season, it would be like us shifting 9 goals this coming Wednesday versus Wednesday to match such a fantastic feat.
Elsewhere Bournemouth tripped up at QPR, Blackburn lost to Forest, and Reading lost a home to Middlesbrough. Only Watford and Norwich collected 3 points by a single goal, although, to be fair and having watched the highlights, it is clear that Norwich dominated the xG race. So the top 6 teams only managed to pocket 6 of 18 points going, the result of this is that the teams challenging to join them in the play-off spots have drawn closer.
So, onto Round 32.
What to say about us? It's deja vu all over again as we encounter one of those all too common unexplainable dips in form that last several matches. Add into that the expected absences from Toney and Rico (as well as Norgaard, Pontus, Marcondes), and we can probably thank the fixture compiler that we are at home to Sheffield Wednesday a team that are 23rd in the Justice League with the least threatening attack (according to 538). Wednesday will also be without Liam Shaw who picked-up two yellow cards in two minutes at the weekend. I don't know how much they will miss Shaw but last week the 19 year-old signed a pre-contract deal with Celtic and a quick google has such superlatives as "meteoric rise", "mighty impressive", "most exciting prospect" - hopefully they are all true and he will be greatly missed. On our side it seems unlikely that we will see anyone returning from injury so this is a major test for a weakened home side. 538 have us a whopping 65% to win, but given what you and I know on the injury front I would wager the true odds aren't as good as that. Finally, it is worth noting that SWFC beat Bournemouth a couple of weeks ago - but not sure if that is anything to be concerned about given AFC's run of form this month.
Norwich visit Birmingham, a team whose only win in their last 6 was their most recent outing over 10-man Sheffield Wednesday (see above). I'm not sure there's much to be said about this one. Norwich has rather convincingly won their last 3 by an aggregate score of 7-1. This after a blip in which they only collected 2 points from 9 (it happens to the best of us!). Needless to say I am as confident as Watford not getting a penalty this week. But as we learnt from the last round, it doesn't work like that in this league.
Swansea are at home to Coventry. We all know what Coventry can do, and we all know that Swansea aren't *that* good. 538 gives the home team an even chance of winning, and I am sure that I speak for every Brentford fan when noting that can be interpreted as that there's 50% chance of them dropping at least two points. Always look on the bright side!
Meanwhile Watford travel to Blackburn - a team that were noted to be majorly underperforming earlier in the season but whose Justice League position has now slipped into the bottom half. It's always a non-straightforward outing to Ewood Park, but I suppose the normal soft penalty kick or lucky double deflection will see home the Hornets. Saying that, Watford are, again, back on form having won the last three having only gained 2 points from 9 from the immediately preceding 3 matches (another Top 6 team that had a wobble). Blackburn are on a run of 4 consecutive defeats, but each by only a single goal. Their latest at Forest being one where (again) they won the xG race. No gimmes for Watford here in for sure.
Further down the play-off spots Reading travel to Wycombe for what I suppose could be termed a local derby. Two teams struggling for form at the moment, and one that shouldn't be that relevant to us.
Finally, in probably the tie of the round, Bournemouth host Cardiff. 6th v 7th in the League, 6th v 7th in the Justice League, and 14th v 1st in the Form Table. Cardiff have won their last 5 match with a goal difference of +11. Meanwhile AFC have rather imploded after that solid start. Needless to say, it's not on TV.
Middlesbrough, Stoke and Barnsley are all in the play-off race now with Stoke and Barnsley facing each other on Wednesday too.
An interesting set of fixtures, which should see some upsets, so we all know what that means...
Elsewhere Bournemouth tripped up at QPR, Blackburn lost to Forest, and Reading lost a home to Middlesbrough. Only Watford and Norwich collected 3 points by a single goal, although, to be fair and having watched the highlights, it is clear that Norwich dominated the xG race. So the top 6 teams only managed to pocket 6 of 18 points going, the result of this is that the teams challenging to join them in the play-off spots have drawn closer.
So, onto Round 32.
What to say about us? It's deja vu all over again as we encounter one of those all too common unexplainable dips in form that last several matches. Add into that the expected absences from Toney and Rico (as well as Norgaard, Pontus, Marcondes), and we can probably thank the fixture compiler that we are at home to Sheffield Wednesday a team that are 23rd in the Justice League with the least threatening attack (according to 538). Wednesday will also be without Liam Shaw who picked-up two yellow cards in two minutes at the weekend. I don't know how much they will miss Shaw but last week the 19 year-old signed a pre-contract deal with Celtic and a quick google has such superlatives as "meteoric rise", "mighty impressive", "most exciting prospect" - hopefully they are all true and he will be greatly missed. On our side it seems unlikely that we will see anyone returning from injury so this is a major test for a weakened home side. 538 have us a whopping 65% to win, but given what you and I know on the injury front I would wager the true odds aren't as good as that. Finally, it is worth noting that SWFC beat Bournemouth a couple of weeks ago - but not sure if that is anything to be concerned about given AFC's run of form this month.
Norwich visit Birmingham, a team whose only win in their last 6 was their most recent outing over 10-man Sheffield Wednesday (see above). I'm not sure there's much to be said about this one. Norwich has rather convincingly won their last 3 by an aggregate score of 7-1. This after a blip in which they only collected 2 points from 9 (it happens to the best of us!). Needless to say I am as confident as Watford not getting a penalty this week. But as we learnt from the last round, it doesn't work like that in this league.
Swansea are at home to Coventry. We all know what Coventry can do, and we all know that Swansea aren't *that* good. 538 gives the home team an even chance of winning, and I am sure that I speak for every Brentford fan when noting that can be interpreted as that there's 50% chance of them dropping at least two points. Always look on the bright side!
Meanwhile Watford travel to Blackburn - a team that were noted to be majorly underperforming earlier in the season but whose Justice League position has now slipped into the bottom half. It's always a non-straightforward outing to Ewood Park, but I suppose the normal soft penalty kick or lucky double deflection will see home the Hornets. Saying that, Watford are, again, back on form having won the last three having only gained 2 points from 9 from the immediately preceding 3 matches (another Top 6 team that had a wobble). Blackburn are on a run of 4 consecutive defeats, but each by only a single goal. Their latest at Forest being one where (again) they won the xG race. No gimmes for Watford here in for sure.
Further down the play-off spots Reading travel to Wycombe for what I suppose could be termed a local derby. Two teams struggling for form at the moment, and one that shouldn't be that relevant to us.
Finally, in probably the tie of the round, Bournemouth host Cardiff. 6th v 7th in the League, 6th v 7th in the Justice League, and 14th v 1st in the Form Table. Cardiff have won their last 5 match with a goal difference of +11. Meanwhile AFC have rather imploded after that solid start. Needless to say, it's not on TV.
Middlesbrough, Stoke and Barnsley are all in the play-off race now with Stoke and Barnsley facing each other on Wednesday too.
An interesting set of fixtures, which should see some upsets, so we all know what that means...
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