There are a lot of things being done to speed up the research and trials which make the standard average time to develop not necessarily a helpful measure.No, but I used to work at the Glaxo research labs in Greenford and 10 years was the average time to develop a vaccine, after all the clinical trials and stuff and it hasn't changed much over the years. As I say in my opinion I reckon this can be shortened by everyone worldwide working on it, but it is very much a case of trial and error. Who knows they may get lucky early on, but even if they did proper clinical trials will taks some time, which is why I said I think 2 years will be about the quickest for a proper well tested vaccine.
Possibly the biggest one here is the sheer scale of research resource going in. I work for one of the biggest global Pharma companies and they pulled all their other R&D projects with relevant scientists/tech back in January to focus on Covid19 and to put in place the supply chain, manufacturing and distribution needed to distribute 1bn doses globally by the end of the first half of 2021. I understand from a friend who is a director of a health tech company they’ve been engaged by the NHS to have an online booking service ready to deal with 500k requests a day to support a vaccination programme in early December (though the kicker is that it’ll focus on over 80s first, then 70-80 and after that those with other underlying chronic health conditions, no plan currently to vaccinate the general population...).
But whatever, the reality is that reopening football grounds is right down the priority list.