Wiki Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
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Untouchable
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SpiderBee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
Rude! Bet 365 : To finish Top 6 , Brentford 2/1 . To be relegated 20/1 . Assumes 5 % probability of being relegated and 50% chance of finishing Top 6 . I personally think the odds to be relegated offer far worse value than to finish Top 6 for the punter but would be fascinated to understand what jmf’s algorithms are predicting atm !
StevieSteve
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
If you click on Predicted in the above table, which we're led to believe is jmf-approved, then it's about 8.77%.
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
Using Opta's predicted points for each position, I thought we'd track our points versus the end goal.
At the moment we're on track for everything except a Top 4 position and relegation.....
At the moment we're on track for everything except a Top 4 position and relegation.....
westendbee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
Hull very much on course to be this season’s Sunderland
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
TorbayBee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
Watched the Hull game, they cannot go through the whole season hoping to hold out and grab a goal. In the end the EPL find you out if you just are not good enough.
Bee(h)Iver
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
Their new keeper has had a brilliant start to the season. But, as you say, it’ll all unravel very quickly if the defence starts to creak.
Untouchable
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
Write-up of the current Justice League on the Beeb:How Premier League teams have really started - according to expected goals
brentford born & bred
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
I would imagine our management are very content with progress so far and are very content during this international break, whilst at the same time looking for where additional small gains are possible.
jlove
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
It's a long international break... nevertheless quite interesting but the actual table does it for me.
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
You definitely have to take 5 game xG tables with a grain of salt, but it still backs up that we're doing the right thing.
We're probably performing at our expected levels although the method of points is probably on a different path than 'deserved'. The xG probably gives us Tottenham W, Leeds W, Sunderland L, Bournemouth L, Chelsea W, so 9 points. Whereas we got W, D, D, D, W to get to the same amount.
Most of that xG table lines roughly up with the eye test, although I'd put Newcastle higher and Forest and Man U a bit lower.
We're probably performing at our expected levels although the method of points is probably on a different path than 'deserved'. The xG probably gives us Tottenham W, Leeds W, Sunderland L, Bournemouth L, Chelsea W, so 9 points. Whereas we got W, D, D, D, W to get to the same amount.
Most of that xG table lines roughly up with the eye test, although I'd put Newcastle higher and Forest and Man U a bit lower.
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
We beat Sunderland 1.21 - 0.92 on non-penalty xG so that one was probably counted as a draw on the BBC link, and maybe a loss on the other Opta one that includes pens? (1.21 - 1.71)
Untouchable
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
Everyone's 6th match not taken into account yet
Jim Rourke
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Edmundo
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
I’m confused by the difference in Forest’s position in those two charts.
BFC1997
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
It’s relative to the quality of opponents faced I’m guessing
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week) 2026/27
The two tables measure different things.
Expected table = what Forest "deserved" from 6 games. It rebuilds the table from chance quality alone. Forest have created 10.3 xG and conceded 7.2, which would typically earn about 10.1 points, enough for 3rd. They have actually taken 5 points (1W 2D 3L), so on this view they have been unlucky.
Predicted table = where Forest will finish after 38 games. It starts from the 5 points already banked, then simulates the remaining 32 matches using Opta’s team strength ratings. Those ratings are largely built on longer-term form and the quality of opponents faced, not just the last six games’ xG.
So the model is effectively saying it does not believe six good xG games reflect Forest’s true level.
Opta doesn't run off of xG exclusively. As far as I know, Opta’s predictions run off its Power Rankings, a rating system driven mainly by results and opponent strength rather than xG. On that measure Forest have 1 win in 6, so the model sees a struggling team.
Early season shows too few games to override the model. xG needs roughly 15 to 20 matches before it reliably separates good teams from lucky ones.