Form over the past 2 months

Status
Not open for further replies.
ladbroke

ladbroke

Well-known member
Joined
15 Jul 2006
Messages
18,255
Reaction score
6,062
Location
Arbroath, NE Scotland

Form over the past 2 months

2 months ago, Brentford were sitting 17th, having won just 2 of their opening 8 games. Fans were calling for Thomas Franks head, not just on here, but on Facebook and Twitter - even in the stands.
Not saying they were wrong, but probably a bit premature especially as we go through this every other season seemingly. Well, I can actually show you how we start...
The table on the 24th September for each of the years we've been in the Championship has us at:

2014: 14th (Pld 8, 11 pts) - final position (Pos 5, 78 pts)
2015: 17th (Pld 7, 8 pts) - final position (Pos 9, 65 pts)
2016: 9th (Pld 9, 14 pts) - final position (Pos 10, 64 pts)
2017: 20th (Pld 9, 7 pts) - final position (Pos 9, 69 pts)
2018: 7th (Pld 9, 15 pts) - final position (Pos 11, 64 pts)
2019: 17th (Pld 8, 8 pts) - ???

As you can see, 2016 and 2018 are the only seasons in the top half.
But also, they're also our worst finishes too! Only time not in single digits. Who knew that?

Here is the table as it looked on the 24th September 2019.
I have highlighted where we are, and the two far right columns will show you who we have played and how many points we took of them. The column in white shows how many points since this date the club has accumulated.

bees1.png

Here is the most recent table, taking into account todays 2-2 draw between Middlesbrough and Hull, complete with a further column showing who we've played and the points gained against them.

bees12.png

Finally, this table is the table as if the league started on the 24th September 2019. We all know we've had a good turnaround, but this shows just how good a turnaround it really has been. We're 2nd in this table,
Now look at Swansea, currently 6th in the league but a lowly 14th in the past 9 games.
How about QPR. They were riding in 5th on the 24th September. Without those first 8 games they'd be in 20th.

bees13.png

This midweek set of fixtures have Fulham playing Derby - both in form. Bristol City are away to WBA,
Nottingham Forest travel to former managers side QPR, who we both know can score and concede loads, whilst Swansea are away to inform Huddersfield.

Just 2 of those to lose, and us to win, will see us rise into the play offs!
 

Form over the past 2 months

Some good work there Ladbroke.

I think Blackburn away will really show us where we are at. Thin squad so a point or three would be very welcome.
 

Form over the past 2 months

Well done Ladbroke. I’m looking at the nine point gap to the top team on both dates.
 

Form over the past 2 months

ladbroke said:
Just 2 of those to lose, and us to win, will see us rise into the play offs!
Click to expand...
Great work,
Indeed, in fact just two failing to win, and us to win, will see us rise into the top 6
 

Form over the past 2 months

If we end up getting promoted this season the turning point will have been the 84th minute of the Millwall game.
 

Form over the past 2 months

Comparing results this season with those in the same fixtures last season also offers encouragement, showing a 7 point gain over 14 games. Only Millwall and West Brom have seen a bigger upturn.

Team Net

Millwall +11
West Brom + 9
Brentford + 7
Blackburn + 3
Nott'm Forest + 3
Swansea + 3
QPR + 1
Preston + 1
Wigan + 1
Bristol City + 1
Leeds 0
Hull 0
Reading - 3
Sheffield Weds - 3
Birmingham - 3
Derby - 5
Stoke - 5
Middlesbrough -12
 

Form over the past 2 months

What do you do with your spare time, Ladbroke?

Seriously though, great work. An interesting read and very encouraging. Thanks.
 

Form over the past 2 months

It certainly offers hope for encouragement, we are playing much better while keeping the goals out at the other end. Squad depth (especially with losing Canos, Niko and Valencia for significant periods) will likely come into the equation at some point, and could cause a stutter at some point. We'll either need to invest in January or bring back Forss to take the lead role a few times allowing Ollie to rotate with the other two (plus Dervisoglu as well to come in). All we can do is keep on scoring points and hope that they top two start to drop points. Statistically Leeds have been underperforming and WBA have been over performing...but we only need to catch one.

I can't help but keep noticing Middlesbrough when looking down those tables...what the hell are they doing. The wrong man may have been put in the managerial hot seat me thinks...
 

Form over the past 2 months

We played 4 of the top 6 sides away, and none of them at home yet....

However December & New Years Day will be a telling month with WBA (A), Fulham (H) and Swansea (H). Plus Bristol City (A), Sheff Wed (A) and Millwall (A) also all in the top half.
 

Form over the past 2 months

johndub said:
What do you do with your spare time, Ladbroke?

Seriously though, great work. An interesting read and very encouraging. Thanks.
Click to expand...

This lol.

I have a lot of spare time at the moment and having moved north of the border, finding things to do, people to see, is hard - especially with little money.
Currently staying back at my mums whilst saving for my own place.
 

Form over the past 2 months

Invipai said:
I can't help but keep noticing Middlesbrough when looking down those tables...what the hell are they doing. The wrong man may have been put in the managerial hot seat me thinks...
Click to expand...

They went with the safe, cheap, option as I understand they have genuinely ran out of money. No longer parachute payments, the money has effectively dried up for them. They could well end up like Charlton and drop down and may even yo yo before returning like Sheffield United.
 

Form over the past 2 months

Updated to include Blackburn game tonight - this time I have done the league table as of today and the points won. I have differentiated between home and away games.
After todays defeat at Blackburn, we are averaging 1.5 points per game - home and way.
Keep that up and we shall achieve 69 points.

points.png
 

Form over the past 2 months

Interesting to notice how consistent the form tables are. You can look at the 6,8,10 or 12 game table and its the same 4 teams - Leeds, WBA, Fulham, Bees. Only the order of top 2 and 3,4 change.
 

Form over the past 2 months

ladbroke said:
Updated to include Blackburn game tonight - this time I have done the league table as of today and the points won. I have differentiated between home and away games.
After todays defeat at Blackburn, we are averaging 1.5 points per game - home and way.
Keep that up and we shall achieve 69 points.

View attachment 20844
Click to expand...

Not keep it up as we’ll end up about 10th.
Win at home and draw away and we average two points a game giving us 84 points and guaranteed play off and a shout of automatic
 

Form over the past 2 months

sonofabee said:
Not keep it up as we’ll end up about 10th.
Win at home and draw away and we average two points a game giving us 84 points and guaranteed play off and a shout of automatic
Click to expand...

I don’t think we’re going to draw many, other than perhaps converting some more of those “xG win but actually 1-0 loss” games. We’ve won more away than home and perhaps our approach is better suited to away games now as home teams are a little less likely to park the bus. I think we’re most likely to keep up a pattern of win 2 lose 1, which averages at 2 points a game and sees us on 84 points. The peppering of narrow defeats also gives weaker opponents a little hope that trying to win rather than just hold out for a draw is worthwhile. Which might help us, particularly if we can get the first goal.
 

Form over the past 2 months

Updated for the weekend.
Added new stats for what we've achieved against teams in groups of 6, top and bottom half.....

After Luton.png
 

Form over the past 2 months

ladbroke said:
Updated for the weekend.
Added new stats for what we've achieved against teams in groups of 6, top and bottom half.....

View attachment 20850
Click to expand...

Thanks for the above. Top, top, work.

Left side figures. Top half, next 7 games if we average 0.7 ( 5 points ) we will be back lower mid table. Sure the powers that be are very much aware.
 

Form over the past 2 months

Can I humbly point out that 4 point out of 3 games (Top 6) is 0.25 rather than 0.3 :D

I told you, more decimal places! :sueme:
 

Form over the past 2 months

Banana said:
Can I humbly point out that 4 point out of 3 games (Top 6) is 0.25 rather than 0.3 :D

I told you, more decimal places! :sueme:
Click to expand...

I'll update the next one to 2 decimal places...
Mind you, I didn't even put it to one. The spreadsheet did that itself lol
 

Form over the past 2 months

Interesting stats and I think it’s similar to other years. As FBS noted in jest we are flat track bullies. Pretty sure our first year up our record against the top six was woeful.

Will see if spending big money on players like Pontus will make us up our “big game mentality” over the next few weeks.
 

Form over the past 2 months

Most of those games against the top 6 were early on in the season though weren’t they? Before we really clicked? Next month will be a good indicator of where we are... haven’t seen anything so far to suggest there’s many teams we should be worried about...
 

Form over the past 2 months

Mr Cynical said:
Most of those games against the top 6 were early on in the season though weren’t they? Before we really clicked? Next month will be a good indicator of where we are... haven’t seen anything so far to suggest there’s many teams we should be worried about...
Click to expand...

Very good point. We were playing 3 Cb's and also the fitness of certain players looked off, plus a number of players hadn't acclimatised to the Championship. We're now playing a different formation, players like Norgaard look fitter and sharper, and players like Mbeumo look much sharper and used to Championship life. Add to that Oli looking every inch a centre forward and the back 4 and keeper looking like rocks, then we're a match for anyone now.
 

Form over the past 2 months

As Thomas Frank noted, in our past 11 games we have garnered 22 points - exactly two per game. The maths is easy: 27 games still to play at two points per game equals 54 points, which added to the 30 points already won means a grand end-of-season tally of 84 points.

84 points means the play-offs for sure and, depending on the form of the leaders, currently Leeds and West Brom, a fair chance of automatic promotion. So it all hangs on maintaining recent form. This in turn will depend, among other things, on avoiding further injuries and who can be brought in to strengthen the squad in January (assuming Canos and Valencia are out for most if not all of the remaining fixtures).

My own feeling is that the quality is there, that the players have gelled and found their rhythm, and that a steady accumulation of points at or near the two-points-per-game rate is possible. The December schedule, a run of seven games including several against our closest rivals, will provide the acid test. 14 points or more, and we're seriously in business. 10 points or fewer and we're set for top-10 respectability but little more.
 

Form over the past 2 months

Mr Cynical said:
Most of those games against the top 6 were early on in the season though weren’t they? Before we really clicked? Next month will be a good indicator of where we are... haven’t seen anything so far to suggest there’s many teams we should be worried about...
Click to expand...

We played Leeds in game 4, Preston game 7, Bristol City game 10 and Nottingham Forest game 11. After Nottingham Forest we then played Millwall and we know what has happened since.
 

Form over the past 2 months

After Sheffield Wednesday

Here is the updated data after Sheffield Wednesday match.

Current average points will put us on 69 for the season.
This is good enough for 9th the last 3 seasons - 5 off the play offs last season, 6 the year before and 11 off the year before that..

Between now and the end of the season, to achieve a points tally off 75, we need to to get, per game, 1.73 points. We have so far averaged 1.50 points.

We clearly do much better against the lower half - but we've also played most of them at home (7 home, 5 away).
We also have to bear in mind that we also fair better at home, with us losing just twice at home from 9, winning 4 and drawing 3.
Here is a betting statistic for you. We've not yet had a draw away from home in 11.

After Sheff Wed (A).png
 

Form over the past 2 months

Comparison over last six seasons......

8FC41DB6-0C6C-4C60-8B92-DFFA70E46E4E.jpg
 

Form over the past 2 months

As goals for are in the same ball park I guess better defending is going to be the difference that gets us to top 2?
 

Form over the past 2 months

No_sting_Bee said:
As goals for are in the same ball park I guess better defending is going to be the difference that gets us to top 2?
Click to expand...
That's usually the case. As long as we also have the squad to avoid the season petering out with exhaustion, like the 14-15 one, then the later seasons show us that we usually improve as the players really get their understanding clicking and we can rotate a bit.
 

Form over the past 2 months

...............looking good...............
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Share this page

Back
Top Bottom