538 Prediction Table

Invipai

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It's interesting what I saw posted on another thread, that Swansea fans are starting to get frustrated that they haven't rotated players much and they're starting to look really tired. From the sounds of it their 1-0 wins over Forest and Coventry were pretty fortunate, in that they turned a 0-0 into a 1-0. That luck may not hold out for too long though, especially considering they have two extra games to play compared to the rest of us.

Underlying numbers do not back up Swansea at all...however there does come a point where it ceases to matter if they can hold out for long enough. We just have to hope that the schedule does catch up to them and we can take advantage.

Odds wouldn't change much yesterday though, we were much fancied in that game so the model wouldn't deviate much after our win.
 

Bee(h)Iver

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It's interesting what I saw posted on another thread, that Swansea fans are starting to get frustrated that they haven't rotated players much and they're starting to look really tired. From the sounds of it their 1-0 wins over Forest and Coventry were pretty fortunate, in that they turned a 0-0 into a 1-0. That luck may not hold out for too long though, especially considering they have two extra games to play compared to the rest of us.

Underlying numbers do not back up Swansea at all...however there does come a point where it ceases to matter if they can hold out for long enough. We just have to hope that the schedule does catch up to them and we can take advantage.

Odds wouldn't change much yesterday though, we were much fancied in that game so the model wouldn't deviate much after our win.
Their 2 extra games are both on the road too, and they have been better grinding out results at home rather than away so. They haven't even set a date yet for the Sheffield Wed. game so fixture congestion will play a big part. I've always thought that towards the end of the season points on the board matter more than games in hand and I still believe that if we can put a run of results together we'll stay ahead of them.
 

mhead bee

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It's interesting what I saw posted on another thread, that Swansea fans are starting to get frustrated that they haven't rotated players much and they're starting to look really tired. From the sounds of it their 1-0 wins over Forest and Coventry were pretty fortunate, in that they turned a 0-0 into a 1-0. That luck may not hold out for too long though, especially considering they have two extra games to play compared to the rest of us.

Underlying numbers do not back up Swansea at all...however there does come a point where it ceases to matter if they can hold out for long enough. We just have to hope that the schedule does catch up to them and we can take advantage.

Odds wouldn't change much yesterday though, we were much fancied in that game so the model wouldn't deviate much after our win.

We need to keep the pressure on them, we all know from personal experience how pressure affects you. We were absolutely caning it last year, smashing everyone and looking unstoppable but as soon it was in our own hands we crumbled.
 

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Swansea haven't had there bad run yet. It will come. We need to get out of the next few weeks in tact as we will be so much stronger at the end of the season when players come back.
 

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Swansea haven't had there bad run yet. It will come. We need to get out of the next few weeks in tact as we will be so much stronger at the end of the season when players come back.
Next two games are crucial. We cant really slip up in either but 4 points would be a good return.
 

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I don't get the point of this table at all. We were cruising to promotion a few weeks back according to that table, then we lost three games on the trot and it had shown no signs of that happening, whats so good about it?
 

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I don't get the point of this table at all. We were cruising to promotion a few weeks back according to that table, then we lost three games on the trot and it had shown no signs of that happening, whats so good about it?
....yep....it's all mystic meg type speculation....so if you are a fan of mystic meg....it's feckin right up your alley....anyways....538 are just your run of the mill bookie.
 

Invipai

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It's a prediction table using underlying numbers, however it's clear that the model doesn't rate Swansea too highly. Their xG doesn't have them anywhere near as high as second.

We're much less likely to get promoted now, but they still think it's just about more likely than the others. They predict there will only be a point or two in it now, while a few weeks ago they had us getting promoted by about 7 points.
 

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I don't get the point of this table at all. We were cruising to promotion a few weeks back according to that table, then we lost three games on the trot and it had shown no signs of that happening, whats so good about it?
Completely agree. It's about as much use as those 'Football Pools Predictor' computer programs from years ago. They're based on current form. On a good run? Your chances of promotion go up. Suffer a defeat or two? Your chances go down. No **** Sherlock! Might as well ask for Mark Lawrenson's opinion.
 

AB

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Completely agree. It's about as much use as those 'Football Pools Predictor' computer programs from years ago. They're based on current form. On a good run? Your chances of promotion go up. Suffer a defeat or two? Your chances go down. No **** Sherlock! Might as well ask for Mark Lawrenson's opinion.
I think the modelling is a bit more sophisticated than recent form.
 

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Completely agree. It's about as much use as those 'Football Pools Predictor' computer programs from years ago. They're based on current form. On a good run? Your chances of promotion go up. Suffer a defeat or two? Your chances go down. No **** Sherlock! Might as well ask for Mark Lawrenson's opinion.
erm .... no
 

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It would be rude not to post this. Second on their model, though of course we still have lost Henry, and I don't know whether that's factored in or not. Watford now third most likely, although I've still yet to be really convinced by them... They did look better today though, and apparently have played better since a change of formation to 4-3-3.

They give us a 57% chance of making the top two.

Screenshot 2021-02-27 at 17.38.09.png
 
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It would be rude not to post this. Second on their model, though of course we still have lost Henry, and I don't know whether that's factored in or not. Watford now third most likely, although I've still yet to be really convinced by them... They did look better today though, and apparently have played better since a change of formation to 4-3-3.

They give us a 57% chance of making the top two.

View attachment 24322
We were level on SPI with Norwich at noon today. Interesting that we've managed to drop after that game.
 

Invipai

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Not doubting you, but where do you get your 57%? (I could be being thick)
On the actual page itself, you can move your curser under the 'Every position' tab with the red bars. It then tells you the likelihood of each one being the final outcome. Here it's 1st: 20%, 2nd: 37%.
 
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On the actual page itself, you can move your curser under the 'Every position' tab with the red bars. It then tells you the likelihood of each one being the final outcome. Here it's 1st: 20%, 2nd: 37%.
Let's compare with the GPG supercomputer before we validate this 🤣
 

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All just prediction models 😁 Though last year the two were comparable, whereas this year the GPG model seems to rate Swansea higher than the FiveThirtyEight version. Not sure what underlying numbers are used specifically though.
 

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Wycombe can now step up and have a major say in our season.

Norwich tomorrow, then Watford midweek.

Come on you #Chairboys....
 

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Their defensive numbers are now slightly worse than ours (on FTE's metrics) and their attacking numbers are far worse (equal to Middlesbrough). Several xG models tell a similar story. We've been waiting for the results to balance out to match, but they haven't up until this point.

Maybe with a tired squad we're starting to see signs of that...against Cov and Forest they were apparently pretty fortunate to win.
 

Mr Cynical

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Their defensive numbers are now slightly worse than ours (on FTE's metrics) and their attacking numbers are far worse (equal to Middlesbrough). Several xG models tell a similar story. We've been waiting for the results to balance out to match, but they haven't up until this point.

Maybe with a tired squad we're starting to see signs of that...against Cov and Forest they were apparently pretty fortunate to win.
A bit like Forest last year where it all came home to roost at the end of the season?
 

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That's my hope...although they've shown an excellent tendency to nick a goal and defend a lead. Their lack of rotation though is worrying their fans, and could be where the difference is made.
 

Nada Bee

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I’m still sticking with 92 points... (for now)

9-2-2 out of the last 13.

our six remaining home games are all winnable IMO. Say at worst we lose one. That leaves us needing 5-2-1 from our last 7 away games. Or 4-2-2 if we can win all of our home games.

Can we do it?

the gruelling fixing list is nearly over, Norwich then Rotherham then we have the luxury of six days off.

Watford could be above us by Easter but I think it’ll be decided in the last half dozen games.
 

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I’m still sticking with 92 points... (for now)

9-2-2 out of the last 13.

our six remaining home games are all winnable IMO. Say at worst we lose one. That leaves us needing 5-2-1 from our last 7 away games. Or 4-2-2 if we can win all of our home games.

Can we do it?

the gruelling fixing list is nearly over, Norwich then Rotherham then we have the luxury of six days off.

Watford could be above us by Easter but I think it’ll be decided in the last half dozen games.
I've just looked at our remaining fixtures:

Norwich (A)
Rotherham (H)
Blackburn (A)
Derby (A)
Forest (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Birmingham (H)
Preston (A)
Millwall (H)
Cardiff (A)
Bournemouth (A)
Watford (H)
Bristol (A)

It's probably the effect of those 3 defeats on the spin, but I looked at that and thought there's only one 'easy' game there (Rotherham), maybe Brum too. However, we all know not to take relegation threatened teams for granted after last year! There are a lot of sides in there that are currently hard to score against. We certainly can't give many of them a goal start and hope for 3 points.

It's going to come down to keeping some clean sheets in there and continue to rotate to avoid fatigue, by rotation, hoping for no more injuries, especially Toney. Norgaard coming back now (and Pontus) will be massive and it may just be that having Henry out will make us harder to score against.

If it went with the form book, then there's easily 24 points there, which I think would be enough. After Norwich, the next 6 games are ones you would expect us to win and I think if we can get anywhere near that, and put some daylight between 2nd & 3rd, it will build confidence again and take some pressure off. We certainly don't want to go into those last 3 games needing 6-7 points.
 

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Our last four games are against teams who could quite possibly be in the play off mix, so not easy games. But maybe we might get lucky and they'll be certain of a play off place when we come to play them and be resting key players in preparation.
 

mhead bee

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I've just looked at our remaining fixtures:

Norwich (A)
Rotherham (H)
Blackburn (A)
Derby (A)
Forest (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Birmingham (H)
Preston (A)
Millwall (H)
Cardiff (A)
Bournemouth (A)
Watford (H)
Bristol (A)

It's probably the effect of those 3 defeats on the spin, but I looked at that and thought there's only one 'easy' game there (Rotherham), maybe Brum too. However, we all know not to take relegation threatened teams for granted after last year! There are a lot of sides in there that are currently hard to score against. We certainly can't give many of them a goal start and hope for 3 points.

It's going to come down to keeping some clean sheets in there and continue to rotate to avoid fatigue, by rotation, hoping for no more injuries, especially Toney. Norgaard coming back now (and Pontus) will be massive and it may just be that having Henry out will make us harder to score against.

If it went with the form book, then there's easily 24 points there, which I think would be enough. After Norwich, the next 6 games are ones you would expect us to win and I think if we can get anywhere near that, and put some daylight between 2nd & 3rd, it will build confidence again and take some pressure off. We certainly don't want to go into those last 3 games needing 6-7 points.
Only 4 of those teams I would consider better than Stoke. 87 points is the average for second place over the last 10 years or so.

8 wins from 13 games gets us to 87 points.

No guarantees obviously and as long as we don’t sh*t the bed if we lose one.
 

upnorthbee

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I've just looked at our remaining fixtures:

Norwich (A)
Rotherham (H)
Blackburn (A)
Derby (A)
Forest (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Birmingham (H)
Preston (A)
Millwall (H)
Cardiff (A)
Bournemouth (A)
Watford (H)
Bristol (A)

It's probably the effect of those 3 defeats on the spin, but I looked at that and thought there's only one 'easy' game there (Rotherham), maybe Brum too. However, we all know not to take relegation threatened teams for granted after last year! There are a lot of sides in there that are currently hard to score against. We certainly can't give many of them a goal start and hope for 3 points.

It's going to come down to keeping some clean sheets in there and continue to rotate to avoid fatigue, by rotation, hoping for no more injuries, especially Toney. Norgaard coming back now (and Pontus) will be massive and it may just be that having Henry out will make us harder to score against.

If it went with the form book, then there's easily 24 points there, which I think would be enough. After Norwich, the next 6 games are ones you would expect us to win and I think if we can get anywhere near that, and put some daylight between 2nd & 3rd, it will build confidence again and take some pressure off. We certainly don't want to go into those last 3 games needing 6-7 points.
Ironically I thought the opposite, from Norwich downwards until Cardiff, all winnable games if we want to make top 2.
 

AB

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I've just looked at our remaining fixtures:

Norwich (A)
Rotherham (H)
Blackburn (A)
Derby (A)
Forest (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Birmingham (H)
Preston (A)
Millwall (H)
Cardiff (A)
Bournemouth (A)
Watford (H)
Bristol (A)

It's probably the effect of those 3 defeats on the spin, but I looked at that and thought there's only one 'easy' game there (Rotherham), maybe Brum too. However, we all know not to take relegation threatened teams for granted after last year! There are a lot of sides in there that are currently hard to score against. We certainly can't give many of them a goal start and hope for 3 points.

It's going to come down to keeping some clean sheets in there and continue to rotate to avoid fatigue, by rotation, hoping for no more injuries, especially Toney. Norgaard coming back now (and Pontus) will be massive and it may just be that having Henry out will make us harder to score against.

If it went with the form book, then there's easily 24 points there, which I think would be enough. After Norwich, the next 6 games are ones you would expect us to win and I think if we can get anywhere near that, and put some daylight between 2nd & 3rd, it will build confidence again and take some pressure off. We certainly don't want to go into those last 3 games needing 6-7 points.
There simply aren’t any easy games this season. Even the bottom 3 have given teams up the top real problems and middling clubs almost all have some decent players who are up to causing a shock. Teams trying to avoid the drop can often be harder to get a result against than ones aiming for promotion. Teams we think are harmlessly midtable may be pushing longer than we think (remember 15-16 to 18-19 when we didn’t give up hope until it was impossible). Just need to do what TF and the boys have done so far and approach each game at a time as one to go for a win in.
 

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Just to add, having looked at the table just now - there are 7 teams with a better defensive record than us - and we have to play them all in those 13 games!
 

AB

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Just to add, having looked at the table just now - there are 7 teams with a better defensive record than us - and we have to play them all in those 13 games!
SW had a better goals against tally before we played them. Until 3 games ago Swansea had conceded far fewer than us. It doesn’t mean that much when we’re by some margin top scorers too. We conceded fewer last season but lost many more games.
 

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They may have but they have yet to play this attacking, hard working Brentford team
That is the problem with this table it's based on the past. This season has proved to be difficult to predict because of the number of games played over a short time frame where tiredness and injuries are playing a significant part. It's a nice table to look at especially for us but I must say I take it with a pinch of salt.
 

Hippobee

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SW had a better goals against tally before we played them. Until 3 games ago Swansea had conceded far fewer than us. It doesn’t mean that much when we’re by some margin top scorers too. We conceded fewer last season but lost many more games.
All true. I just think it means there are not going to be many open games there & we'll have to work hard (like the 2nd half yesterday) to break teams down and vary tactics. There is a lot of 'anti-football' to look forward to with the likes of Derby, Forest, Brum, Cardiff, Millwall still to play.
 

badgerbee

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Just to add, having looked at the table just now - there are 7 teams with a better defensive record than us - and we have to play them all in those 13 games!
??
Swansea have a better defensive record than us. We haven't got to play them.....
 

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Any result anywhere else, that will help us on not only sustaining our 2nd place, but also climbing to the top, is now vital to us as the games run down.

So, with a nod to Stars in their Eyes - ✨

"Who are you going to be today, Oceanbee?”

"Today, Matthew, I’m going to be a Wycombe Wanderers supporter!”

I guess you have to dress accordingly for the occasion with a rock-star hairstyle, leather jacket, tight jeans (ouch!), Chelsea boots and possibly a guitar 🎸 for encouraging the team at half-time!
 

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