my best mate is a Forest fan. Since we showed interest in him I've been watching and getting regular reports on his performance. Kid looks like a player and my mate reckons he is integral to Forest. My valuation is based on the fact he is quality, young, English and has serious potential. Out of interest, what is your estimate of his current value?
Unlikely Brennan Johnson (Forest winger)
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sonofabee
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I genuinely don’t know, not seen him apart from the match on TV vs Arsenal, it was a genuine question as obvious you have seen more of him.
I trust that we won’t pay more than we believe he’s worth and we definitely won’t get into a bidding war. FWIW, I’m desperate for us to bring in someone in midfield who is fast and pacy and can go past players and give us an attacking threat.
He looks the real deal. He was not at his best v Arsenal. I think he would be a great addition to our team.
sonofabee
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Thanks
Is he winger or an attacking midfielder? If the former where is he going to play In our formation? And there is no way that I can see us abandoning 3 centre half’s in the premier league.
I’ve only ever seen him play on the TV against Arsenal. Based on that, I have no opinion on him as a player. Looking on line, he has played 25 times in the Championship In total. We obviously have great recruitment but to break our transfer record for that profile looks surprising.
I’ve only ever seen him play on the TV against Arsenal. Based on that, I have no opinion on him as a player. Looking on line, he has played 25 times in the Championship In total. We obviously have great recruitment but to break our transfer record for that profile looks surprising.
Emma Raducanu hadn't played much "top flight" tennis before she hit it big. Sometimes it happens. I've got no idea if this lad is worthy of that analogy, but you definitely can't rule out his worth solely based by he's only played 25 Championship games.
fencer/bee
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And she was out FIRST round in her very next tournament. But I get where your going.
You heard wrong then. There's no way we will end up with £50m profit unless we win the league and are on TV 50 times. Oh and win the FA Cup too.
AB
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Some players will burst onto the scene and become stars overnight and stay that way. Foden, Saka, Rooney, Owen, Beckham etc etc etc. Many others have huge potential which for various reasons never quite materialises or burns brightly for a short period and is never recaptured.
Nobody knows whether Raducanu will be winning Grand Slams regularly over the next decade, might just bump around on the Tour creditably without getting near another major final or decide in a couple of years that the strains of touring and playing tournament are too much stress (see her withdrawal from Wimbledon) and instead go off and become a mathematician (she managed an A* in A level Maths last summer while playing a bit of tennis!).
Johnson might be a Rooney or Foden who will tear up the PL. Or he might not. Even with all the stats in the world we don’t know. So it comes down to how big a bet on him somebody is willing to make. Will Forest gamble on holding him unless they get £15-20m? Will we gamble on meeting that price? Will he kick on to be worth that and more or will one of us (or another club) get left holding a player who ends up a McEachran of unfulfilled promise? It’s easier for Forest to gamble this way, if Johnson doesn’t progress with them they don’t lose much from a player who cost them nothing. If another club with limited resources, like us, gambles and loses, they’ll have spent Toney+Maupay+Benrahma+Watkins+Mbeumo to get less than one of those players. I’m glad it’s not my job to make that bet or my money that’s at stake!
fencer/bee
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Ohhh that Ramus telling me porkies again. Gggrrrrrr
andyrew
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Like Josh Dasilva or???
andyrew
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Emma would probably be more affordable?
She did hit it big. Looks like reality bites a bit now though (still an unbelievable achievement).
Agreed that the past isn’t always an indicator of the future. Normally a key indicator though!
jlove
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So, the conclusion is that it's worth the gamble paying a vast amount for Johnson on the basis we may get one good match out of him?
sonofabee
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You’re spot on but realistically Josh is how far off from being fit to start and influence games? We have no width or pace in the current midfield?
Bee(h)Iver
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I could see us moving to 3-4-3 in future seasons, but to do that you need top class WBs and 2 very mobile midfielders who are very good on the ball. At the moment we have 1 of each, with Rico and Norgaard. Vitaly will improve, and hopefully JDS will fit right in at PL level but we still need to fill that RWB spot.
So maybe Johnson doesn’t fit at this moment, but would be ideal in a 3 man attack if we fill the other positions.
taxi driver
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I suggest we pay good money for him and turn him into the next Marcondes or Ghoddos.
Then again.....
mhead bee
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Maybe we should sign him then.
Agree the first bit, second bit re other clubs not snapping him up, I often ask myself the same question about Toney
Again, 100% agree on first part, re the second part, we do not have to become a yo yo club to continue doing what we have done for 10 years. We will be fine with the squad we have.
Next season another 3-4 Janet’s, Ajer’s and wissa’s and we will gradually chip away at the premier league ,
Lets enjoy the process.
rebus
On my final warning
Loving the keyboard scouts on here. Reminds me of B Block in Braemar Road in the old days with their footballing “insight” on matchdays.
mhead bee
Well-known member
I don’t think many doubt his ability but is he worth smashing out transfer record for? we could get all four of the next wissa, janelt, canos and a BM for that,
King Bee
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Except we are no longer in the Champ pleading poverty hence why premiums have gone up. Forest are doing exactly what we did with Mepham…
As a former B Block resident, I hope you are referring to the incessant moaning about Sawyers, Woods and Karleigh rather than my incredibly astute observations!
rebus
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I think I’ve just proved my point.TheHairdresser
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....and look how that turned out.
King Bee
Former BU board member, working in pharma land
Indeed, but that’s the risk with every transfer…I trust our DOF and Head of Recruitment to get it right more often than most. If we do land Johnson, and I don’t know if we are, you know we have been tracking his progress for a while and have determined there’s value still left on the table.
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Account with a decent amount of followers saying we’ve gone up to 16 million, no clue about reliability.
Can't see us paying 18m for him
If we put a bid of 16 why wouldn’t we go up to 18 ?
AB
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And if 18, why not 20? If 20, why not 25?
The value factor will be very strict. If we do the maths and he is worth 17m at a maximum, we may not go for it. 18m is a hell of a lot of money for an unproven winger who only has a half a championship season
brentfordfc4ever
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Sometimes you have to pay for potential. Its a risk, but it will cost you for the players potential outcome. If the football world believes there a very high chance he will be a superstar, you'll pay well over the odds
AB
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True but there’s a point at which it becomes too much relative to the risk and return. Particularly when you look at who else we could get for the money. £18m is Ajer plus Toney- the record signings of the last two seasons, both of whom had both huge potential and delivered on the pitch from pretty much their first game. It is Wissa plus Onyeka, both of whom are more experienced at a much higher level than Johnson but after half a season are not fully up to the level consistently. It is Pontus plus Pinnock plus Raya plus Henry plus Canos. It is Mbeumo plus Benrahma plus Watkins plus Maupay plus Norgaard.
It is a huge gamble the club needs a very high % of success to make worthwhile. Johnson would need to be capable of becoming Foden or Saka good by the end of next season to be a good deal. Maybe he is. If we buy him at the prices being touted the club must think so.
I don’t think comparisons to players bought when we were a championship club are valid.
It is clear we are genuinely interested in Johnson, maybe a more reasonable fee can be reached in the summer, with I think one year left on his contract. This assumes Forest fail to get promoted. They may also try to offer him a new contract to protect the value of their asset if nothing else.
It is clear we are genuinely interested in Johnson, maybe a more reasonable fee can be reached in the summer, with I think one year left on his contract. This assumes Forest fail to get promoted. They may also try to offer him a new contract to protect the value of their asset if nothing else.
AB
Well-known member
They’re valid because those are all players who made the step up to the PL and fulfilled the potential they were bought for having. Having been bought in the Championship that potential was known to be a few seasons into the future. So if we’re buying potential in the PL for huge multiples of that, the base level the player offers now has to be higher and the end point even higher.
We cannot take a punt on breaking our transfer record for someone who delivers as little as Rhian Brewster and there’s absolutely nothing in Johnson’s history that screams out he is a better player. Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. If MB authorises the purchase, that’s good enough for me. Until and unless he does, it just looks like crazy money for someone who might be in L1 without ever having done much of note at PL level in a few years like Pritchard (far higher rated and with more achievement at similar age).
Hippobee
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That is an excellent analogy and comparison.
Pritchard lit up that division in 14/15 and for all the world looked like a player that could do well in the PL. As we know, that never happened and he is now in league 1.
Obviously, I haven't seen Johnson more than the odd game, but I don't read reports of him tearing up the division or looking a standout player - certainly he isn't streets above where Pritchard was in 14/15.
Paying for future potential is one thing, but there will be a line and valuation. In my opinion £15-20m is way past it, but what do I know?!
We are clearly in need of a good winger or two and better in midfield, but we are not desperate to throw money away.
I don't really believe the story not least because £16m seems a completely insane amount. Forest have the right to ask for whatever they want but I can't see us being interested at anywhere near that price point. He might be good but he is not Bellingham good is he and how much did Bellingham go for?
The links to Johnson in this window seem a bit tenuous and unlikely to me.
The links to Johnson in this window seem a bit tenuous and unlikely to me.
25-30 Bellingham I think
More than I thought but Bellingham was basically the best player in the league at 16 and wanted by the biggest clubs in Europe. Doesn't seem to be the case here.
andyrew
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I appreciate it’s a lot but it might not be where he is now as a player but what the club can do with him. 23 year old Bowen signed for West Ham 2 years ago for £20m. I think you always pay more when your a Prem team buying Championship players. As a Championship club you have more power financially than say buying a player from League 1 and 2. As we did when we sold Said, Ollie and Maupay. Looking back even Scott Hogan at the age of 24 went to villa in 2017 for £12m. If we got 20 year old Johnson for £16m I’d say it’s good business.
British talent means you pay a premium usually ..
If we can do the deal great. Clearly has talent to be nurtured
AB
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You’re comparing Johnson to Bowen who’d made 7 PL appearances, scored 52 Championship goals at a rate of nearly one every other game, was on 16 at this point in the season after 22 the one before and the loss of whom was so catastrophic that Hull went from play off contenders to relegation? Nope.
smiffy superbee
'The Lapidary' on Amazon.
jlove
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TheHairdresser
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I would hope for an initial £16/18m we'd acquire both a creative attacker and a quality RB with potential.
jlove
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That sort of money would buy us Keane Lewis-Potter from Hull, if we want promising talent from the football league.
I can’t see where we will play him if we stick to 3 at the back. We are screaming out for some creativity in midfield and a right back. I can’t help but feel the money would be better spent elsewhere but I will have faith in the club to make the right decisions. They know better then me.
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He played as an 8 in a midfield 3 with Lincoln last season
TheHairdresser
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No offence but playing more centrally in Lg I where you get more time in a passing side against teams who willfully give up the ball so frequently shouldn't be an indication of any potential a player has in that particular position at a much higher level of football (imo).