Unlikely Brennan Johnson (Forest winger)

AB

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18m is cheap if he is worth 50m in the future.
That “if” is doing a lot of work. When people were complaining Maupay wasn’t even L2 standard they weren’t saying £1.6m was cheap for him. He did come good a season later but what if the critics were right?
 

Albee

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That “if” is doing a lot of work. When people were complaining Maupay wasn’t even L2 standard they weren’t saying £1.6m was cheap for him. He did come good a season later but what if the critics were right?
It's all speculative isn't it? The clubs model. Smartodds model. That's how MB has made his fortune.
 

TheHairdresser

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Because it’s clear in this case it won’t work. The closer we get to the end of the window the less time they have to replace him. If we think he’s worth it pay it, if not let’s go for someone else.
The risk isn't loaded completely on us as they'll probably bring in Wallace and Bowler way before the end of the this window anyway.

They still have a player who won't sign a new contract and will probably only have a summer window of opportunity to flog him and that may well be whilst planning for another season in the Championship.
 

Hippobee

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It's early days, don't panic. You obviously don't play poker....
Spot on.

They can take £15m now - cash in the bank for an unproven player at PL level. They don't have to...

Or they can wait until the summer. If Forest don't get promoted (likely), he will want away and will be worth less than £15m then, as his contract is 6 months closer to being up. If we don't get him, there will be other targets we are looking at.

As another poster mentioned, it will be interesting if they continue to play him this month. If they don't, expect a deal to be done. IMO - If we pay the £18m, it will be because we think he is worth that. Personally I don't, and think that money would be better spent elsewhere.
 

Fat Bee Slim

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The risk isn't loaded completely on us as they'll probably bring in Wallace and Bowler way before the end of the this window anyway.

Bowler? Not THE Josh Bowler? I've heard the lad is an absolute baller. Cheap too. Forget Johnson, we should go for him. Surely we can outbid Forest. Especially for such a player as Josh Bowler.
 

Rob-BEE

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I'll caveat this with the fact we're obviously excellent at handling transfers and we don't throw money at players for the sake of it, BUT....it strikes me as odd that we'd be trying to get him in now, given he's highly unlikely to make a tangible difference to our survival odds, and he may well be available for a better price in the Summer. That is unless we can get him for a fee that we think is good value, but I'm not convinced that's the case here. In the current market, anything substantially north of £10m feels like a lot for a 20 year old with 30 Championship appearances to his name.

I'd be surprised if this happens and if it does it'll be because Forest have caved at a lower-than-quoted price.
 

Doovster

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Whether the price is fair or not they’re clearly not going to budge. Either pay the 18 million or move on to someone else.
It's called a negotiation. We may well decide £18M is too much and move on or Forest might decide (Particularly if player wants move) that actually £15M is enough. It's not that different to buying a house is it. It ultimately depends on your budget and how much you really want it as to whether you're willing to pay asking price or not.
 

Beecareful

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I'll caveat this with the fact we're obviously excellent at handling transfers and we don't throw money at players for the sake of it, BUT....it strikes me as odd that we'd be trying to get him in now, given he's highly unlikely to make a tangible difference to our survival odds, and he may well be available for a better price in the Summer. That is unless we can get him for a fee that we think is good value, but I'm not convinced that's the case here. In the current market, anything substantially north of £10m feels like a lot for a 20 year old with 30 Championship appearances to his name.

I'd be surprised if this happens and if it does it'll be because Forest have caved at a lower-than-quoted price.
excellent post rob
 

AB

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I'll caveat this with the fact we're obviously excellent at handling transfers and we don't throw money at players for the sake of it, BUT....it strikes me as odd that we'd be trying to get him in now, given he's highly unlikely to make a tangible difference to our survival odds, and he may well be available for a better price in the Summer. That is unless we can get him for a fee that we think is good value, but I'm not convinced that's the case here. In the current market, anything substantially north of £10m feels like a lot for a 20 year old with 30 Championship appearances to his name.

I'd be surprised if this happens and if it does it'll be because Forest have caved at a lower-than-quoted price.
The price also seems high to me but whatever we pay I’ll trust the club to be happy with. I think the club is doing its usual thing of recruiting in advance rather than for immediate need. They may have taken the view we will be safe this season so have an advantage in getting next season’s recruitment and bedding in done early. And/or that if we go down we’ll be pushing hard to bounce straight back up so having a quality Championship player who’ll develop faster next season in that environment will help.
 

LingfieldBee

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I think the home grown status might be one of the reason we are attempting to push this throw. Young home grown talent is expensive and we might see this as a relatively "fair" price for HG talent. I know we are good on numbers for HG but it's a future investment into HG.
 

Isleworth_Bee

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I think the home grown status might be one of the reason we are attempting to push this throw. Young home grown talent is expensive and we might see this as a relatively "fair" price for HG talent. I know we are good on numbers for HG but it's a future investment into HG.

Who’s this HG guy you’re going on about 😉
 

jlove

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I'll caveat this with the fact we're obviously excellent at handling transfers and we don't throw money at players for the sake of it, BUT....it strikes me as odd that we'd be trying to get him in now, given he's highly unlikely to make a tangible difference to our survival odds, and he may well be available for a better price in the Summer. That is unless we can get him for a fee that we think is good value, but I'm not convinced that's the case here. In the current market, anything substantially north of £10m feels like a lot for a 20 year old with 30 Championship appearances to his name.

I'd be surprised if this happens and if it does it'll be because Forest have caved at a lower-than-quoted price.
I imagine we're in a position where we believe players like Johnson, Lewis-Potter and Mudryk will cost more in the summer but can be taken now to be inducted for first team productivity next season. Even if one of them is reeled in at our valuation, that may be fine but it's not the end of the world as we know it if not. There's probably other recruitment streams more focused on bolstering the squad this season, like Aaron Hickey.
 

Beecareful

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or
Can't we offer them Fosu as part of the package?
or one of our first team semi-regulars who has real value and quality but maybe not in our long term planning???? (but a step-up from Fosu in terms of a p/x)
 

bridport bee

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I'll caveat this with the fact we're obviously excellent at handling transfers and we don't throw money at players for the sake of it, BUT....it strikes me as odd that we'd be trying to get him in now, given he's highly unlikely to make a tangible difference to our survival odds, and he may well be available for a better price in the Summer. That is unless we can get him for a fee that we think is good value, but I'm not convinced that's the case here. In the current market, anything substantially north of £10m feels like a lot for a 20 year old with 30 Championship appearances to his name.

I'd be surprised if this happens and if it does it'll be because Forest have caved at a lower-than-quoted price.

Just thinking out loud here, maybe we feel that this window is our best chance to get him because his value is at an almost unreal premium?

When he's in the last 6 months of his contract he'll be so (relatively) cheap that bigger clubs will feel it's worth taking a punt on him and seeing how he develops with their coaching staff, but at his current value, they won't spend the money because he won't be anywhere near their current first team?

Maybe we are thinking we either pay over the odds now, or he goes to Monaco in the summer and there'll be nothing we can do about it.
 

JimmyP206

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I have no knowledge of the stats the recruitment team use, and I don't doubt that we will make the correct decision. But, in my not-ITK opinion, Keane Lewis-Potter seems much better value for money here, if the reports of them wanting 10m for him. Just an opinion but Mudryk and KL-P seem better value for me
 

Brentford77

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Original tweet is probably correct, reply is ludicrous.
Nothing correct about the first bit either. There are clubs that want to sell (we don't know if NF fall into that category) and the value of the option of waiting for a higher bid gets progressively lower as the close of the window draws near. So yes, in some cases you do need to go back several times and watch as the vendor bit by bit senses reality and reduces their expectations. But there is no guarantee the delta between the two can ultimately be bridged
 

Invipai

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Not sure the first tweet is correct. If we pay the other clubs valuation all the time, we'd always end up paying too much. We're known for being shrewd in the business, and that's not by paying whatever the other club would like. As with any business dealing, it's about finding an acceptable middle ground.
 
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T

TOXIC BEE

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Nothing correct about the first bit either. There are clubs that want to sell (we don't know if NF fall into that category) and the value of the option of waiting for a higher bid gets progressively lower as the close of the window draws near. So yes, in some cases you do need to go back several times and watch as the vendor bit by bit senses reality and reduces their expectations. But there is no guarantee the delta between the two can ultimately be bridged
It could come down yes, but in January I heavily doubt it will, as there’s less time for a replacement, so to be fair I do actually agree with him, if we’re not willing to pay it best thing would be to go for someone else.
 

hardybee

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The first part regarding the valuation is sort of true. My house is on the market, if someone offers me what I want for it I will sell. If they don’t go find another house.
If it was one of our players and West Ham were bidding Im sure we’d all be saying pay the fee or go elsewhere
 

jbee

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We will decide the upper limit of what the player is worth and try and negotiate as far below that as we can but probably not over. It is too easy to constantly convince yourself to go a little beyond your valuation, but doesn't seem a very Brentford thing to do.

The headlines and rumours on twitter at best give a very broad idea of what may be going on so it is ridiculous to draw conclusions from them about our negotiating strategy.
 

jlove

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The first part regarding the valuation is sort of true. My house is on the market, if someone offers me what I want for it I will sell. If they don’t go find another house.
If it was one of our players and West Ham were bidding Im sure we’d all be saying pay the fee or go elsewhere
The difference is that Phil Giles will be able to pull up a spreadsheet with multiple variables to derive the current market value and potential value over time driven by the chances of any of the variables being met. You won't find that on Zoopla.
 
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AB

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Yes this would be the incase but the end result will be if forest say they want 18m and we don’t agree he’s worth it we won’t be getting him. Unfortunately clubs won’t just accept what Phil Giles thinks he’s worth
And we won’t pay more than we think he’s worth. The point is they don’t know how much we’d go up to and we don’t know how much they’ll come down to. But Phil will know the former, have a better idea than any of us the latter and have persuasive arguments to help them bring their price within our range to make both feel they’ve got a good deal. Forest are talking so the gap is there to be closed (cf the ludicrous Sheff U tactic re Maupay).
 

hardybee

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And we won’t pay more than we think he’s worth. The point is they don’t know how much we’d go up to and we don’t know how much they’ll come down to. But Phil will know the former, have a better idea than any of us the latter and have persuasive arguments to help them bring their price within our range to make both feel they’ve got a good deal. Forest are talking so the gap is there to be closed (cf the ludicrous Sheff U tactic re Maupay).
Persuasive argument to help them bring their price within our range? So you think he can persuade Forest to sell him for less than what they value him at?

I honestly think if the shoe was on the other foot people would have a different opinion. Let’s sell Toney for less than we think he’s worth because the Leicester owner has a persuasive argument? I don’t think so and neither do Forest
 

andyrew

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If we don't show signs of reversing our recent run of defeats this young man may well decide that his future lies elsewhere.
 

Simon C

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If we don't show signs of reversing our recent run of defeats this young man may well decide that his future lies elsewhere.
Surely his chances of getting game time are increased in the Championship? I can't see anyone else making him a starter in the PL

If he has pace and can run in behind defenders then I can see why we are looking as we miss that off the bench. Wissa came on and played quarter back today for some reason
 
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