Expectations for Season 20/21

[clactonbee]

One defeat in the last 8 games is decent and 3 of the draws were against top 8 clubs, so maybe we are getting too downbeat.
Of course we have got to start winning more games but that should happen when all the players are back to full fitness. Our performances have been poor compared to other seasons but we cant suddenly become a poor side surely.
Keep the faith.

 

[badgerbee]

League Cup Winners.....

 

[Gazza Bee]

Need to sort out the left sided hole and pray Bryan finds some form or this will be a midtable season IMHO

 

[Wise old Bee]

My seasonal predictions usually include the forlorn hope that we might have some sort of cup run so I am on track so far. Of course it would be this, particular, season, wouldn't it? Just as we missed the POs and probably seeing us play in front of our biggest crowd ever so we could be deprived of seeing Brentford's run to Carabao glory. Balls.

 

[BuzzWord]

This season so far, after 12 games, we have 17 pts ; 11th place
LWDLWWLDWDDD .... 5 pts off top 6 (3 teams on 22 pts)

Ok yesterday's performance was a let down; our expectancy has come to be high & armchair viewing makes it all the more frustrating .... this season already it seems we've suffered more injuries than the whole of last season ..... but I remain positive

After all, last season at this stage we had amassed 15 pts
& the previous 5 years (in reverse) - 18 pts ; 12 pts ; 18 pts ; 14 pts ; 18 pts
None have been great starts ..... & yes we all know this season will be relentless; tougher than before ..... & that goes for all teams

Keep the faith! Top 6. COYBs

 

[LingfieldBee]

This season so far, after 12 games, we have 17 pts ; 11th place
LWDLWWLDWDDD .... 5 pts off top 6 (3 teams on 22 pts)

Ok yesterday's performance was a let down; our expectancy has come to be high & armchair viewing makes it all the more frustrating .... this season already it seems we've suffered more injuries than the whole of last season ..... but I remain positive

After all, last season at this stage we had amassed 15 pts
& the previous 5 years (in reverse) - 18 pts ; 12 pts ; 18 pts ; 14 pts ; 18 pts
None have been great starts ..... & yes we all know this season will be relentless; tougher than before ..... & that goes for all teams

Keep the faith! Top 6. COYBs

This for me says it all, we find it hard for whatever reason to get going. I think we're come good again like normal, and although some don't like it the squad rotation will pay off in the mid and late season . There has been a hell of a lot of football played in a short space. It will catch up on some squads.

Top 6 yes.

 

[grutter]

This for me says it all, we find it hard for whatever reason to get going. I think we're come good again like normal, and although some don't like it the squad rotation will pay off in the mid and late season . There has been a hell of a lot of football played in a short space. It will catch up on some squads.

Top 6 yes.

Agree with the first bit and also agree we'll improve. However, I think the only 'genuine' squad rotation (i.e. rotate to keep everyone fresh) we've seen is for the league cup, which has gone well. The changes to the first team in the league have generally been enforced by injuries and a lack of midfield quality. Without injury Raya, Pinnock, Henry, Mbeumo, Toney, Dasilva and Norgaard would have been ever present, I think. A bit of rotation for Dalsgaard, but not much. That's 8 players. The only genuine rotation has been through midfield/wingers with Marcondes, Jensen, Janelt, Canos & Ghoddos. TF doesn't really know his best combination of these and and least 3 haven't shown the form needed to command a more regular place. I think it's shown that the depth in our squad hasn't got the quality many thought it might have. I think Ghoddos will improve if Frank can work out what to do with him and he can improve his fitness. Janelt will improve further. I think the only way we'll see Canos & Marcondes improve is if everyone around them improve. We need players who stand out, even when things around them aren't going well. Those 2 guys and maybe Ghoddos (too early to be sure) aren't those players.

 

[Indian Bee]

Something I hadn't realised until it was mentioned on Sky last night is that this is our best start to a season since 2013/14 and out best start since we got back up in the Championship. What we are doing better this year is if we can't win (and not playing well) then at least pick up a point. All to play for in this league. Now the big December test will come not just for us but all teams. I think come end of December we will have a clearer idea on whom in the league will be amongst the mix. Two wins in the bounce will do our confidence good going into December.

 

[wanderer paul]

Something I hadn't realised until it was mentioned on Sky last night is that this is our best start to a season since 2013/14 and out best start since we got back up in the Championship. What we are doing better this year is if we can't win (and not playing well) then at least pick up a point. All to play for in this league. Now the big December test will come not just for us but all teams. I think come end of December we will have a clearer idea on whom in the league will be amongst the mix. Two wins in the bounce will do our confidence good going into December.

Then you need to read this thread again....... it’s all there.....

Only Positive Comments Allowed

we are unbeaten in 5 league games and the only other team whom can say that is Norwich whom are top of the table.

griffinpark.org

 

[North London Bee]

I think we have to manage expectations.

We have lost our two best players, we had a shortened close season, there is a playoff hangover and we are faced with an exhausting schedule.

This season is about stamina, organisation, battling, defensive solidity, set pieces with the odd bit of inspiration from time to time.

I was guilty of posting that we had lost our tempo and fluidity in the first half but this was really unfair of me as we cannot expect the team to play with the flair and freedom of last season.

We will grind out our wins, get Norgaard and Roerslev back fairly soon and do a bt of strengthening in January.

We will be right up there at the end of the season.

 

[SH]

Interesting to look at the expected goal stats now we're a third of the way through the season (c/o Infogol):

xGF: 1.62/game (1.60 in 2019/20)
xGA: 0.81/game (0.83 in 2019/20)

Toney: 0.64/game
Forss: 0.75/game
Watkins: 0.51/game (2019/20)

Pretty impressive that both GF and GA are ahead of last season's average when, like many, it didn't seem to me that we'd moved out of second gear yet

 

[liverbee]

Growing with each match. I don't think we "need" to buy atm, as we have several coming through already, the "replacements" such as Ghoddos and the injured players coming back. Norgaard is the most exciting of these.
TF has also found how best to utilise our utility players, namely Canos and Fosu-Henry, and who knows who may get promoted as he makes the most of the five subs rule. We have benefitted already from being regarded as top contenders by receiving the extra time between matches (something else the older fan might have noticed).
That's not to say our recruitment staff and owner have not got any nice surprises up their sleeves. We are clearly a destination club for talent. Interesting and Good Times.

 

[amersfoort bee]

I still stick to my prediction from several months ago that we will be champions.

 

[Oceanbee]

I don’t recall us ever being just 2 points off the top position, at any stage last season or any previous Championship season after say 5 games and thereafter.

Correct?

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

A top 6 finish would be outstanding. I believe we will be in the mix for that. The top 10 IMO will be a lot tighter.

A couple of additions in Jan is a must and if we can get our wide players up to speed we will push top 2.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Fivethirtyeight.com promotion prediction this season vs last season

 

[shouldbee]

After seeing last nights scores it looks like (so far) that nobody will run away with it. Norwich losing 3-1 to Luton, just imagine if that had of been us, some on here would be calling for Thomas's head. We've got the best striker, the best LB and the best DM in the league plus the rest of the squad are all top class players. Nothing to fear, we can win this !

 

[nick logan]

A top 6 finish would be outstanding. I believe we will be in the mix for that. The top 10 IMO will be a lot tighter.

A couple of additions in Jan is a must and if we can get our wide players up to speed we will push top 2.

the absolute least we should expect is play offs , no way there are 5 better teams than us

 

[GP200]

the absolute least we should expect is play offs , no way there are 5 better teams than us

.............more sense spoken.............

 

[shepperton bee]

The prediction game in the championship is always dangerous but especially so in the current Covid fixture frenzy ! A couple of injuries to the wrong players can knock any team out of its stride , losing Rico and Mbuemo right now on top of Noorgard would really hurt us , especially Rico . But with average luck with injuries I genuinely think top 2 is what we can realistically aim for . We may not be quite as expansive or entertaining as last season but we finally seem to have learnt how to grind out results when not on top of our game . Last season we lost so many games 1-0 where we were the better team , yet conversely dished out a lot of real hammerings both home and away , when on top we loved taking the pi££ , flat track bullies maybe . The 0-0 draws we’ve had would be unheard of last season but maybe aren’t always such bad results , spreading the goals more evenly is also a good thing , we all enjoyed 7 v Luton but god how we could have used 2 or 3 of those at strategic times !! Let’s not panic when we do lose as inevitably some will , form is temporary but class is permanent and I think we have enough about us to be top 2 this time round , it’s the only way we’re going up let’s be honest we all know we’re never going to succeed in the playoffs!!!

 

[Les Beeavinu]

the absolute least we should expect is play offs , no way there are 5 better teams than us

Spot on.

 

[Indian Bee]

I am the most optimistic supporter but sadly after seeing the last two home games I can honestly think that this time next year we will be in the same division less half our top 4/5 players. Finally all those f***ers that slagged off Said during the preseason in how we would be better off without him - just eat your words now. Despite his tippy tally football he created so much and scored so much. We can’t replace a £30m player.

 

[hardybee]

I am the most optimistic supporter but sadly after seeing the last two home games I can honestly think that this time next year we will be in the same division less half our top 4/5 players. Finally all those ****ers that slagged off Said during the preseason in how we would be better off without him - just eat your words now. Despite his tippy tally football he created so much and scored so much. We can’t replace a £30m player.

I agree, the team misses him so much. Can’t replace £30m player, but we could of tried

 

[Twickenhamben]

This is the season.... it’s a poor league with no outstanding team.
If we don’t go up then we will inevitably lose Raya, Rico, Pinnock, likely Jannson, Da Silva, possibly Noorgaard and I suspect Toney (he’s Premier bound). That’s a hell of a rebuild.

 

[Invipai]

Top 6. Not top 2. I don't think we're as good as at least three other teams, but we're probably good enough to make the playoffs.

If we do go up I'd question whether we'd stay up though, something I didn't worry about much last year.

 

[Indian Bee]

This is the season.... it’s a poor league with no outstanding team.
If we don’t go up then we will inevitably lose Raya, Rico, Pinnock, likely Jannson, Da Silva, possibly Noorgaard and I suspect Toney (he’s Premier bound). That’s a hell of a rebuild.

This is exactly the season. We have been poor all season except IMO Sheffield Wednesday away and to a lesser degree Luton away. We have drawn 5 of our last 6 home games. Not great. But we are still there challenging. There is already high interest in Toney and Henry .....if we ain’t challenging top 2 come jan be hard to resist any big offers.

 

[rebus]

My pre-season expectation of some Brentford fans being ungrateful bitches is on track.

 

[Banana]

Fivethirtyeight.com promotion prediction this season vs last season

View attachment 23302

Is this your own creation ?

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Is this your own creation ?

My graph using the numbers from fivethirtyeight.com so I thought I had better put their name on it

 

[Banana]

My graph using the numbers from fivethirtyeight.com so I thought I had better put their name on it

My question was, is that graph available on 538 today, or have you made a note of the changing data over time?

 

[Hungerford Bee]

My question was, is that graph available on 538 today, or have you made a note of the changing data over time?

I keep a record over time - for instance here is this season's progression.

 

[badgerbee]

Probably stating the obvious here, but still think it needs saying. More than any other season, there really is minimal value in trying to judge how "well" we're currently doing (as opposed to playing), in terms of where we'll finish.
I honestly think the true reflection on squad ability/depth/tactics/rotation/player management/coaching/substitutions/signings etc. will only be able to be judged on the final day. i.e. Based on which 3 teams go up.
At the moment we've got absolutely no idea whether our rivals are running their squads into the ground/are making poor long term decisions/have got players to bring back in/who they might sign etc. all of which are more crucial than ever in a unique year.
If we come up short in May, then fair enough we can look back and reflect on whether we did as much as we could to be successful. Particularly bearing in mind how tight the league is; at the moment, and even for the next few months, we have no idea whether what we're doing is genius or garbage........Or somewhere in between.......

 

[jlove]

... there really is minimal value in trying to judge how "well" we're currently doing (as opposed to playing), in terms of where we'll finish...

Yeah... but someone's to blame for the bad run we're on and the poor football being played, surely?

 

[Bigbee]

Yeah... but someone's to blame for the bad run we're on and the poor football being played, surely?

maybe and stop calling him Shirley

 

[badgerbee]

Yeah... but someone's to blame for the bad run we're on and the poor football being played, surely?

Presume the fishing rod smiley is missing here?

 

[ruislip bee]

there you go!

 

[nick logan]

there you go!

Thought i was going to have to rev up the

 

[The Pipe]

This season is different to any other post war. Don’t bother a great deal with the football on the box but do dip in from time to time and my main conclusion is that nobody is playing scintillating football and that games are generally being won by the teams that make the fewest mistakes in every division

I love reading our updates thread ( especially when I know the result) and am amazed at some of the comments I read and the totally unreasonable expectations, eg we should easily be beating Forrest etc. Think people don’t understand the mental fatigue that effects players and the problems for Thomas in trying to put out teams with players that are feeling both mentally and physically fit.

ultimately the teams with the biggest depth of squad will rise to the top of their league. Posters are calling for new faces in Jan and we may see some, however we cannot just Chuck money at players as our Income and Expenditure statement at present must look horrendous

Not expecting a marauding second half to the season but do expect us to continue grinding results. We won’t be in the top 2 positions ( unless we get some considerable luck) but fully expect us to be in the top 6 again

 

[Indian Bee]

If anyone offered me 6 points from the next 4 league games I'll take it now.

 

[liverbee]

Probably stating the obvious here, but still think it needs saying. More than any other season, there really is minimal value in trying to judge how "well" we're currently doing (as opposed to playing), in terms of where we'll finish.
I honestly think the true reflection on squad ability/depth/tactics/rotation/player management/coaching/substitutions/signings etc. will only be able to be judged on the final day. i.e. Based on which 3 teams go up.
At the moment we've got absolutely no idea whether our rivals are running their squads into the ground/are making poor long term decisions/have got players to bring back in/who they might sign etc. all of which are more crucial than ever in a unique year.
If we come up short in May, then fair enough we can look back and reflect on whether we did as much as we could to be successful. Particularly bearing in mind how tight the league is; at the moment, and even for the next few months, we have no idea whether what we're doing is genius or garbage........Or somewhere in between.......

Which shows how one little defeat against Fulham can totally skew a person's view of the world. It's as if we had never been through Crewe, Stoke, Yeovil, even Port Vale, Sheffield Wednesday , Donny, Chester and several others.
We are made of sterner stuff. Going up, I reckon. Irresistibly.

 

[mhead bee]

If anyone offered me 6 points from the next 4 league games I'll take it now.

A lot of teams are playing conservative football this year, lack of pressing and longer balls, the ones who aren't will run out of steam by Feb. I expect us to beat Reading and get draws in the other two, 6 points would be immense.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

This season is different to any other post war. Don’t bother a great deal with the football on the box but do dip in from time to time and my main conclusion is that nobody is playing scintillating football and that games are generally being won by the teams that make the fewest mistakes in every division

I love reading our updates thread ( especially when I know the result) and am amazed at some of the comments I read and the totally unreasonable expectations, eg we should easily be beating Forrest etc. Think people don’t understand the mental fatigue that effects players and the problems for Thomas in trying to put out teams with players that are feeling both mentally and physically fit.

ultimately the teams with the biggest depth of squad will rise to the top of their league. Posters are calling for new faces in Jan and we may see some, however we cannot just Chuck money at players as our Income and Expenditure statement at present must look horrendous

Not expecting a marauding second half to the season but do expect us to continue grinding results. We won’t be in the top 2 positions ( unless we get some considerable luck) but fully expect us to be in the top 6 again

Bournemouth look pretty good to me.

 

[Griffingreen]

A lot of teams are playing conservative football this year, lack of pressing and longer balls, the ones who aren't will run out of steam by Feb. I expect us to beat Reading and get draws in the other two, 6 points would be immense.

I like the suggestion of us playing "conservative" football, it does go a long way to explaining our change in playing style, that along with good use of substitutes will as you suggest help us from running out of steam later in the season.
I haven't kept a list, but there does seem to be a fair amount of reports of long term injuries that have occurred to other Championship players, which could already be down to the demands of the hectic schedule and again something we are working hard to prevent. Fingers crossed for the boys.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Alternative view of predictions from fivethirtyeight showing the change promotion chances for their current predicted top 10. Bournemouth = improving , Watford = decreasing since the start of the season. We are improvong slightly.

 

[KcBee]

With the division so tight and a gambler as an owner. I hope he rolls the dice in January, I think it is a weak championship and we haven't got going yet. A decent winger could be all that's missing in the jigsaw.

 

[AB]

With the division so tight and a gambler as an owner. I hope he rolls the dice in January, I think it is a weak championship and we haven't got going yet. A decent winger could be all that's missing in the jigsaw.

I think, with little or no exaggeration, there are few, if any people who want us to be promoted than our owner. If the last missing piece is available, he'll go and get it, just as he has done over the last ten or so years starting from a battered box held together with fraying, yellowing sellotape and more pieces missing than present.

 

[Wise old Bee]

It will be an interesting decision for the Directors of Football in January and, as KcBee says, will they throw the dice? I suspect they already have targets in mind if they decide that we should go for it but there is nothing they can do to influence Norwich and Bournemouth's results other than to keep the pressure on. If they do nothing then I think we will still reach the POs and we would just have to hope that we have acquired the necessary mental strength to succeed this time. The fact that we are a much harder team to beat this season gives some cause for optimism but whether we have the capability of chasing a game in a PO match is not certain. We could defend a lead with CN and VJ in the side comfortably enough.

 

[psg150]

It will be an interesting decision for the Directors of Football in January and, as KcBee says, will they throw the dice? I suspect they already have targets in mind if they decide that we should go for it but there is nothing they can do to influence Norwich and Bournemouth's results other than to keep the pressure on. If they do nothing then I think we will still reach the POs and we would just have to hope that we have acquired the necessary mental strength to succeed this time. The fact that we are a much harder team to beat this season gives some cause for optimism but whether we have the capability of chasing a game in a PO match is not certain. We could defend a lead with CN and VJ in the side comfortably enough.

We could beat them when we play them? That would certainly influence their results.. In Thomas's pre Watford interview hd said "If we keep doing the right things, then at some point, we'll get our chance" He cited the Leeds home game last season as an example, there are obvious others. I suspect this season, more than any other this is bang on. Be consistent, press on and take the opportunity when it comes. Because of the opposition we are playing, the next three leagye games present our first such opportunity. It won't be the last chance and 4/5 points from those games would be just fine but 3 wins would see us probably in the top two.

 

[JANORAK]

Unbeaten and 100 points...

Only 3 defeats so far (he writes hastily, before the weekend).
Need to kick on in the points department though. I make it about 2.5 per game required.....

 

[psg150]

Only 3 defeats so far (he writes hastily, before the weekend).
Need to kick on in the points department though. I make it about 2.5 per game required.....

Easy there.. That takes us to 99 points. 2 per game would be 86 which will be about the cut off this year.