• Remember 6pm Kick Off today. On iFollow or Sky (Arena Channel)

Expectations for Season 20/21

AB

Well-known member
Joined
12 Apr 2000
Messages
11,651
Reaction score
1,571
Location
'Sunny' Leeds
Easy there.. That takes us to 99 points. 2 per game would be 86 which will be about the cut off this year.
Our current points per game would take us to 77 points over the season. Most will agree we probably ought to have picked up another 4-5 points at least so far. Just adding that to our current average for the remainder would take us to 81-82. Things are so close this season that could even be enough. Kicking on and improving second half of the season by more than that, as we usually do, puts us well on target for top 2.
 
OP
I

Indian Bee

Active member
Joined
10 Feb 2001
Messages
9,010
Reaction score
1,703
Location
Manhattan
I noted last week 6 points from our next 4 games I would take. We already got 4 points from our first 2.
 

Isleworth_Bee

Well-known member
Joined
18 Jan 2005
Messages
22,662
Reaction score
1,247
Location
Basingstoke
No one to fear in this league. Will be interesting to see where we stand after weve played B'muff. Top 6 should be the minimum.
 
OP
I

Indian Bee

Active member
Joined
10 Feb 2001
Messages
9,010
Reaction score
1,703
Location
Manhattan
Before the Watford game noted if we get 6 points from our next 4 I would take it. So to get 7 points from 3 is impressive.

After 21 games last year we had 33 points - so already 5 points ahead.

We are 3rd top scorers and pleasing to see other players now scoring.

All in all, looking promising.
 
OP
I

Indian Bee

Active member
Joined
10 Feb 2001
Messages
9,010
Reaction score
1,703
Location
Manhattan
Very much top 2. To be unbeaten in December and get 10 points from our last 4 games, is truly remarkable.
 

badgerbee

Mafeking Avenue........gets you there!!!!
Joined
28 Jan 2008
Messages
15,465
Reaction score
1,475
Location
Langport, Somerset
What a tremendous effort in December!!!
Played 9, won 6, drawn 3!!!
Second in the league and into the semi final of the League Cup!!!
That was a huge effort tonight, and it will take the same on Saturday to get a result against Bristol City, particularly with one day’s less rest than them, and the schedule we’ve had.
Dreamland would be winning our next 2 games ( o_O ) and then we can take a breath playing a ‘B’ team v Boro in the FA Cup, before ’going again’ at Reading on 16th Jan.......
YOU REDSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!
 

Isleworth_Bee

Well-known member
Joined
18 Jan 2005
Messages
22,662
Reaction score
1,247
Location
Basingstoke
Still sticking with top 6. Some strong teams in and around us. A few additions in jan and anything is possible. No one to fear this year.
 

hardybee

Member
Joined
27 Jan 2011
Messages
686
Reaction score
155
I think top 6 but becoming quietly confident of going that little bit further than last season. I honestly thought last season was our best shot at it and wouldn’t get one again for a while especially the inevitability of losing key players. Well done to us for keeping the majority of the squad together, adding some quality with Toney and Janelt.
 

Oceanbee

Active member
Joined
7 Sep 2013
Messages
2,280
Reaction score
833
Whilst browsing Amazon this morning, I noticed this.

I had to check my calendar to make sure I hadn’t slept through until 5.00pm on 8th May 2021, after the final match, away at Bristol City! 😊⚽🐝


1609577189283.jpeg
 
OP
I

Indian Bee

Active member
Joined
10 Feb 2001
Messages
9,010
Reaction score
1,703
Location
Manhattan
Took us 30 games last year to reach the number of points we have currently.

All looking good and as TF noted quite rightly recently there is no Leeds in the league this year. Top 2 is on. Win home and pick up points away is the key. I firmly believe 12 wins and a couple of draws from our remaining 21 games will see us home. Let's hope.

6 points ahead of Bournemouth and ahead of Watford with a game in hand.
 
OP
I

Indian Bee

Active member
Joined
10 Feb 2001
Messages
9,010
Reaction score
1,703
Location
Manhattan
Two tough away games ahead. I’ll take 2 draws right now and anything else will be a bonus.
 
OP
I

Indian Bee

Active member
Joined
10 Feb 2001
Messages
9,010
Reaction score
1,703
Location
Manhattan
I am really starting to believe. I thought we played ok and well at times in the first 10-15 games of the season but we were also scrapping points where not played well which is always a good sign. The turning point for me was our first half performance against Watford and also our away performance at Cardiff. We were excellent in both those games. We were putting in good performances whilst winning.

The game against Swansea although we somehow drew when a 4-0 scoreline would have done justice really made me realise how good we really are. Cooper knows deep down we are far superior than them. When I look at Swansea (yes repeated them twice as I really don't like them) they have how many on loan - 3-4 players at least.

This team has been built from the moment after our first season back in the Championship. Getting the DoFs in and thereafter each season building for the next season. We lose players and it has been frustrating but at huge profit. This is where Warnock doesn't get it - our success in the recruitment area over the last 4-5 years has resulted in the fact we can afford to buy Toney.

Honestly believe we will be crowned Champions at home to Watford.
 

JasonBee

Underrated member
Joined
13 Apr 2000
Messages
1,043
Reaction score
6
IB we never beat Watford!

We’ve now shown we are good enough to finish top 2 over half a season. There is always a dark horse who can put a winning run together and spoil any party. My biggest fear is injuries. hope Lady Luck is on our side.
 

taxi driver

Active member
Joined
26 Jul 2005
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
389
Location
Staines
IB we never beat Watford!

We’ve now shown we are good enough to finish top 2 over half a season. There is always a dark horse who can put a winning run together and spoil any party. My biggest fear is injuries. hope Lady Luck is on our side.
keep Ivan Toney fit and I believe we are unstoppable 👍
 
OP
I

Indian Bee

Active member
Joined
10 Feb 2001
Messages
9,010
Reaction score
1,703
Location
Manhattan
IB we never beat Watford!

We’ve now shown we are good enough to finish top 2 over half a season. There is always a dark horse who can put a winning run together and spoil any party. My biggest fear is injuries. hope Lady Luck is on our side.
Mate - this is the new Brentford we all beat them.

Fear is injuries but we have coped so far with injuries to key players this season. Have faith.
 

AB

Well-known member
Joined
12 Apr 2000
Messages
11,651
Reaction score
1,571
Location
'Sunny' Leeds
I am really starting to believe. I thought we played ok and well at times in the first 10-15 games of the season but we were also scrapping points where not played well which is always a good sign. The turning point for me was our first half performance against Watford and also our away performance at Cardiff. We were excellent in both those games. We were putting in good performances whilst winning.

The game against Swansea although we somehow drew when a 4-0 scoreline would have done justice really made me realise how good we really are. Cooper knows deep down we are far superior than them. When I look at Swansea (yes repeated them twice as I really don't like them) they have how many on loan - 3-4 players at least.

This team has been built from the moment after our first season back in the Championship. Getting the DoFs in and thereafter each season building for the next season. We lose players and it has been frustrating but at huge profit. This is where Warnock doesn't get it - our success in the recruitment area over the last 4-5 years has resulted in the fact we can afford to buy Toney.

Honestly believe we will be crowned Champions at home to Watford.
I called getting the Champions trophy at home to Watford ages ago - hopefully, possibly, in front of a crowd.

I think Warnock does get it really, he certainly seemed to when he was between jobs. But his perspective when in work is that of a manager who lives or dies at a club by getting them promoted within a season or maybe two and spending whatever budget he is given with that sole aim in mind. It is necessarily short term and at his age, why would he big up a more long term club strategy which would not support him in doing what he does best? What happens at his clubs after he's moved on doesn't matter to him.
 

BFC1997

Active member
Joined
12 Feb 2011
Messages
8,793
Reaction score
726
Location
Osterley
Well without wanting to jinx anything playoffs are pretty much nailed on now. We could average 1 point per game (literally half of our PPG so far) and finish on 73 points. That’s probably not far off the total needed for 6th!

The question is can we expect to keep up the challenge for the title/top two and automatic promotion.

Much depends on how strong Swansea, Norwich, and maybe Reading and Watford are for the rest of the season. If any of them are capable of a run similar to our own after the restart last season it will be a close run thing.

But the underlying stats are in our favour.

We currently have:

Highest PPG in the league
Most goals for
Best goal difference
Fewest defeats
Highest xG

We are also one win short of Norwich, who have the most, but with a game in hand.

We also have fifth best defence in the league. Of late we have conceded a few soft goals, and it’s a bit of a concern, but the in perspective the record is okay, considering the context of our attacking output and the fact that Jansson and Norgaard have been injured for so much of the season.
 

horshambees

Active member
Joined
7 Nov 2010
Messages
9,626
Reaction score
332
Location
Warnham,West Sussex
Thanks for the like, did you put it in your diary back in October?

"Sarcastically like GABS' post the moment we get into the top 2" 😂👍🏻
I went looking for it, my post that is not yours, tbh,and then I remembered your reaction and reply,but I stick by what I said.
Is your reaction still the same?
Surely it has changed.
The waft of optimism is around in February whereas the pessimistic Gabs of October is confined to the dustbin of yesterday?

There's another one out there where I said 46 games is a marathon not a sprint after the defeat to Stoke City.
Pace yourself properly and you can be in the mix at the end.
 

GABS

Active member
Joined
17 Apr 2000
Messages
7,324
Reaction score
276
I went looking for it, my post that is not yours, tbh,and then I remembered your reaction and reply,but I stick by what I said.
Is your reaction still the same?
Surely it has changed.
The waft of optimism is around in February whereas the pessimistic Gabs of October is confined to the dustbin of yesterday?

There's another one out there where I said 46 games is a marathon not a sprint after the defeat to Stoke City.
Pace yourself properly and you can be in the mix at the end.
We all hope we get promoted and I'll be keeping my ST when I move to Ireland later this year 👍🏻
 

finsbury_bee

Active member
Joined
12 Aug 2006
Messages
1,670
Reaction score
57
Location
Henley on Thames
Big game on Wednesday. A win and we go top, increase our lead over Swansea and Reading, and then we head into a run of fixtures against bottom half teams where we could start to stretch the gap over the chasing pack.
 

Wise old Bee

El Viejo Zorro Plateado
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
8,718
Reaction score
474
Location
Sudbury Hill
At the start of the season I predicted a top six finish and we would face Colin's Middlesborough in the POs. I fervently hope I am wrong here. It is common to speak of teams having a bad run, perhaps we had ours early in the season? We may well drop points, obviously, but can't see a really bad run over a sustained period happening. I am basically scared all the same but pray we have shaken off the little old Brentford, pub on each corner, serial croakers image. The new ground and unreal nature of this season might be helping us in this respect.
 

A Real Mysteron

Active member
Joined
13 Apr 2009
Messages
8,144
Reaction score
1,252
I don’t have access to all the stats, but from memory we have have only lost 5 league games “behind closed doors” so the lack of fans seems to be helping us.
No fans back until next season please.
 

filmyfan

Active member
Joined
29 Mar 2006
Messages
1,262
Reaction score
43
Location
Citizen of Nowhere
I don’t have access to all the stats, but from memory we have have only lost 5 league games “behind closed doors” so the lack of fans seems to be helping us.
No fans back until next season please.
I think in BCD games the cream rises to the top - in that without crowds some of the crazy tackles and "getting stuck in" you see with the crowds screaming etc is not seen - thus the teams of lesser quality struggle more.

I maybe wrong of course but it seems like that.
 
Last edited:

Untouchable

Once called a bastard by a Judge
Joined
5 May 2014
Messages
3,303
Reaction score
2,795
Our last 10 league games have given the following results:

P10
W8
D2
L0
Points 26

Which is better than the last 10 league games of last season where our results were:

P10
W8
D0
L2
Points 24

We’ve shown we are capable of going on lengthy runs where we are unbeatable and pick up a significant number of points.

The post lockdown winning run was obviously not a fluke.

Now the momentum is with us, we are not playing catch up and we live rent free in the head of every Swansea fan.

IMHO, it’s time to believe.
 

jlove

Well-known member
Joined
17 Dec 2002
Messages
34,392
Reaction score
1,721
Location
Vaison-la-Romaine
Given the ability to recover from conceding an early goal, I'm quite confident we'll recover from a defeat. We need to target at least 32 points from 19 games, so as long as one defeat is not followed by another, I think we can just keep taking each game as it comes.
 

amersfoort bee

Active member
Joined
26 Jan 2003
Messages
1,886
Reaction score
207
Location
netherlands
I think we'll be harder to beat this season but the question will be whether we can score enough goals. I don't except Toney to weigh in with 20 + in his first season, others need to score minimum 10+. You don't need a prolific goal scorer, Leeds won the league without one. Top 6 is realistic, top 2 possible.
I think you were a bit wrong there. :)
 

jbee

Active member
Joined
22 Oct 2003
Messages
4,067
Reaction score
817
Location
Ealing
The biggest threat is injuries. Significant injuries to Toney, Henry, or one of the centre halves would be very difficult. Apart from that there is always the possibility of getting a run of really bad luck in games but I really believe now that we are the best team in this league.
 

Isleworth_Bee

Well-known member
Joined
18 Jan 2005
Messages
22,662
Reaction score
1,247
Location
Basingstoke
I said top 6............. Can we finish top 2? Of course we can. I would love to see the squad boosted by CN and PJ. Buckle in because we are in for a massive end to the season.
 

Frothybaby

Active member
Joined
3 Sep 2013
Messages
1,919
Reaction score
132
Though we have games against lower half teams after Wednesday those in top six don't have too tough games either. So dropped points will be clangers.
 

Bigbee

Well-known member
Joined
5 Apr 2000
Messages
28,313
Reaction score
418
Location
Crondall,Nr Farnham
The biggest threat is injuries. Significant injuries to Toney, Henry, or one of the centre halves would be very difficult. Apart from that there is always the possibility of getting a run of really bad luck in games but I really believe now that we are the best team in this league.
yep .despite Forss's potential hes no Toney ,without Toney I think we'd be f***ed
 

beesbees_bfc

Member
Joined
3 Jun 2008
Messages
968
Reaction score
396
yep .despite Forss's potential hes no Toney ,without Toney I think we'd be f***ed
Yep, Jbee is bang on, Toney, Henry or any of the centre backs (until Pontus is back or Winston Reid up to speed) would seriously reduce the threat and effectiveness of the team.
 

Jay Bee

Active member
Joined
24 Jan 2001
Messages
7,879
Reaction score
214
Location
London
I decided after the Bristol City game we had played everyone so this was a good time to ponder, what if we repeated all of our results from the first half of the season in the second half on the basis that we would only be asking to repeat something we've already achieved.

At that point the home straight was 20 games and the reverses were 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats. That would give us 90 points. Very rare that that is not enough points for top 2!

Since then we've improved our result against Middlesbrough (drew at home, won away) so are 2 points up on the deal...so far.
We've got our work cut out to maintain that because if you look at the next 5 games..

Reading a WON the home fixture
Barnsley h WON
QPR a WON
COVENTRY A WON
Sheff W WON
Stoke h LOST
Norwich a DREW

12 games to go after those seven. If we are even close to that par after that we are doing well e.g. even if we only got 12 points from these 7, vs 16 in the reverse fixtures, we would still be on course for 88 points.

If of interest after Norwich it's

Rotherham h WON
Blackburn a DREW
Derby a DREW
Forest h WON
Huddersfield a WON
Birmingham h LOST
Preston a LOST
Millwall h DREW
Cardiff h WON
Bournemouth h WON
Watford h DREW
Bristol city a WON

and no I do not want to end up needing 10 points from the last four :)
 

AB

Well-known member
Joined
12 Apr 2000
Messages
11,651
Reaction score
1,571
Location
'Sunny' Leeds
yep .despite Forss's potential hes no Toney ,without Toney I think we'd be f***ed
I hope and pray we don’t lose Toney for any matches but as we’re getting goals and assists from several others we could manage with Forss if needed and in him have much more as a fall back than we did last season when we really had no alternative to Watkins. Forss is very sharp as a central striker and opponents might well make the error of relaxing a bit against him feeling relieved not to have Toney on the pitch.
 

jlove

Well-known member
Joined
17 Dec 2002
Messages
34,392
Reaction score
1,721
Location
Vaison-la-Romaine
I hope and pray we don’t lose Toney for any matches but as we’re getting goals and assists from several others we could manage with Forss if needed and in him have much more as a fall back than we did last season when we really had no alternative to Watkins. Forss is very sharp as a central striker and opponents might well make the error of relaxing a bit against him feeling relieved not to have Toney on the pitch.
A bit of a butterfly effect but how many of those other goals and assists were enabled by Toney being on the pitch?
 

OrchardBee

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2020
Messages
78
Reaction score
65
Location
East Midlands
Whilst I realise that each season is unique (and that this one is especially unusual), it may be interesting, as context to our current performance, to look at the outcomes from the last ten championship seasons.
Figures below (with minor decimal rounding) are as follows:
Highest and lowest achieved (range)
Ten year average, expressed in points.
Ten year average, as percentage of potential points.

Champions 102 - 87 / 93 (67%)
Runners Up 93 - 79 / 88 (64%)
Third 89 - 77 / 84 (61%)
Fourth 85 - 75 / 80 (58%)
Fifth 81 - 72 / 76 (55%)
Sixth 80 - 68 / 74 (54%)

Thus last season, Leeds came top with 93 points (67%), which was bang on average for first.
We were third with 81 points (59%), which was slightly below average for third.

This season, we are currently overall on P 27, Pts 54 which = 67%.
Home form is currently P 14, Pts 29 which = 69%.
Away form is currently P 13, Pts 25 which = 64%.
 

AB

Well-known member
Joined
12 Apr 2000
Messages
11,651
Reaction score
1,571
Location
'Sunny' Leeds
A bit of a butterfly effect but how many of those other goals and assists were enabled by Toney being on the pitch?
Some/many, but given how we play as a team, it isn’t as if Forss wouldn’t also be doing many of the same things in terms of positioning. A comparison might be made with what happened when Hogan left and Vibe stepped into the central role or even when we lost Judge. In both cases the replacements weren’t as good on paper but were good enough to make the team still work and arguably (counterintuitively) work better by not being so reliant on the missing man’s personal skill beyond the straight team role. I hope we don’t get into the situation but I’m optimistic we’d get through it much better than some of our opponents might anticipate.
 

beesbees_bfc

Member
Joined
3 Jun 2008
Messages
968
Reaction score
396
Some/many, but given how we play as a team, it isn’t as if Forss wouldn’t also be doing many of the same things in terms of positioning. A comparison might be made with what happened when Hogan left and Vibe stepped into the central role or even when we lost Judge. In both cases the replacements weren’t as good on paper but were good enough to make the team still work and arguably (counterintuitively) work better by not being so reliant on the missing man’s personal skill beyond the straight team role. I hope we don’t get into the situation but I’m optimistic we’d get through it much better than some of our opponents might anticipate.
Don’t ageee unfortunately, whereas Forss is clearly a good finisher he’s a long way off providing the all round contribution Toney does. He’s not as strong, not as good in the air, not as good a first touch, not as quick and not as good at picking a pass.

None of which is meant as a criticism but Toney is exceptional and Forss is still learning and developing. For a start, Toney occupies multiple defenders, teams don’t need to do that for Forss.

Not saying we couldn’t get better again as a team in following seasons If he left but if he was suddenly injured, with current personnel and system, I think we’d be significantly weaker.
 

AB

Well-known member
Joined
12 Apr 2000
Messages
11,651
Reaction score
1,571
Location
'Sunny' Leeds
Don’t ageee unfortunately, whereas Forss is clearly a good finisher he’s a long way off providing the all round contribution Toney does. He’s not as strong, not as good in the air, not as good a first touch, not as quick and not as good at picking a pass.

None of which is meant as a criticism but Toney is exceptional and Forss is still learning and developing. For a start, Toney occupies multiple defenders, teams don’t need to do that for Forss.

Not saying we couldn’t get better again as a team in following seasons If he left but if he was suddenly injured, with current personnel and system, I think we’d be significantly weaker.
Of course we’d be significantly weaker. But we’d still be pretty strong and Forss would do a lot more than he’s being given credit for.
 

Wooburn Bee

Active member
Joined
22 Feb 2006
Messages
3,025
Reaction score
224
I don’t have access to all the stats, but from memory we have have only lost 5 league games “behind closed doors” so the lack of fans seems to be helping us.
No fans back until next season please.
I think it helps us away from home as we are the most technical team in division or close to it so opposition doesn’t get 12th man effect from crowd. Probably costs us a few points at home when the team does need lifting whether through pressure or fatigue or it just not coming off.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top Bottom