FiveThirtyEight Predicted Table 2021/2

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The FiveThirtyEight predicted table has been updated for the new season, and currently has us to finish 4th from bottom, on 38 points.

We seem to have dropped a few SPI points over the close season from 67.0 to 63.3

Obviously it's of questionable accuracy before a ball is kicked, but will be interesting to see how this changes over the next few weeks...

FiveThirtyEight.PNG
 

BFC1997

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After two games we’ve moved up to 14th in their predicted table:

690C801D-26C4-44D3-AABA-6CEB96E5E42F.jpeg
 

Invipai

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I was taking a look at this the other day! Surprised it has our defence so low, although you can imagine better teams than Palace or Arsenal scoring against us. 24% chance of relegation...probably not too bad realistically, hopefully we can decrease it though....
 

Jay Bee

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Infogol have us 10th (not surprising given our xG supremacy in the first two games):

View attachment 27256
Is that just based on two weeks of data?

Five Thirty Eight at least assess every team with a defensive and attacking rating and calculate likely match outcomes as a result...and that is certainly based on a much longer period...hence them having us 17th after 0 games.
 
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Encouraging that we appear to be moving up in their model, but still... very early days.

Obviously we all want to aim higher than just survival, but it would be unwise to ignore a model that currently sees us relegated 1 in 4 simulations.

I think this does demonstrate what a tough league we're in, and even within that, what a tough portion of the league we're in.
 

SH

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Is that just based on two weeks of data?

Five Thirty Eight at least assess every team with a defensive and attacking rating and calculate likely match outcomes as a result...and that is certainly based on a much longer period...hence them having us 17th after 0 games.

Yes and, of course, any "modelling" built on either two games or our performance in the Championship is worth precisely the paper it's written on. The bookies' odds for a top half finish are interesting (c/o Bet365). We've crept up their list already (to 15th):

Screenshot 2021-08-24 at 10.36.02.png

But, to put it another way, they think it's all to play for from 12th-20th. For me, the interesting one's Brighton. All the forecasters are getting excited about their xG last season (+17 more than actual) and their two results to date. The game on 11th September should give a good idea of where we're at.
 

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It's not made up, but it obviously has limited data to play with. I usually only start looking at it from Jan onwards. Either way it's probably fairly accurate...good start but there's still a danger of going down... 75% chance of survival is good though.

If the table ended up finishing like how they're currently predicting, there would only be a couple of surprises in there.
 

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It’s so early still, but the prediction table (whilst likely not close to being accurate on exact final position for most teams) will now give a good indication as to the kind of “clusters” of teams within the league and where ambitions should lie.

0A4C312D-52C1-4AF5-A2E5-6F808F7F89F0.jpeg

From the above it would suggest that in the PL this season you’ve got:

- A top four that is miles ahead of everyone else; City, Liverpool, Chelsea, United

- A group of six further teams that should make up the rest of the top ten and that will be aiming for the 5th, 6th and 7th spots for European football; Spurs, Everton, West Ham, Leicester, Brighton, Arsenal.

- Three sides that are likely too good to go down but probably won’t join that push for Europe; Wolves, Villa, Leeds

- A bottom seven that will purely have ambitions of consolidation before worrying about anything else; Palace, Southampton, Brentford, Burnley, Newcastle, Watford, Norwich

Not to say the picture can’t change but it’s nice to see a picture emerge that doesn’t have us cut adrift at the bottom.

Shows how tough our next five league games are now though, with no-one in our own tranche of the division to play until after then and after the next international break.
 

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Believe and be brave, children! I was surprised to read at the weekend that it took until January for Brighton to win 3 games last season. They (obviously) survived….

Of course last season didn't start until mid September but nevertheless it took until the 19th match, the half way point, for Brighton to collect their third victory yet in that time they were never once in the bottom three. Overall they won 9 times on their way to 41 points and a very comfortable 16th place. In fact thanks to the general uselessness of Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United just 29 points would have been enough for survival last year. Sadly I think that's an unusually low threshold.
 

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Of course last season didn't start until mid September but nevertheless it took until the 19th match, the half way point, for Brighton to collect their third victory yet in that time they were never once in the bottom three. Overall they won 9 times on their way to 41 points and a very comfortable 16th place. In fact thanks to the general uselessness of Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United just 29 points would have been enough for survival last year. Sadly I think that's an unusually low threshold.
Yes, it’s looking a much harder PL than last season and a much easier Championship.
 

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Last season Burnley finished 17th with 39 points, and everyone else finished with over 40 points. For us to stay up we need at least one of those clubs to drop below us, which means either we finish with over 40 points or one of them has a worse season this time around. Brighton obviously aren't going to do it, which leaves a few candidates left.

I believe that we will stay up (I can certainly see us finishing above Burnley and Newcastle) but we will have to get used to longer runs without a win than we're used to. If we can push above either Southampton or Palace I'll be comfortable.
 

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Last season Burnley finished 17th with 39 points, and everyone else finished with over 40 points. For us to stay up we need at least one of those clubs to drop below us, which means either we finish with over 40 points or one of them has a worse season this time around. Brighton obviously aren't going to do it, which leaves a few candidates left.

I believe that we will stay up (I can certainly see us finishing above Burnley and Newcastle) but we will have to get used to longer runs without a win than we're used to. If we can push above either Southampton or Palace I'll be comfortable.
That’s an interesting take on it and a very fair summary. However you could equally argue that Burnley only actually needed 30 points for survival and that some of the extant teams this season may indeed find it harder to pick up points against others (hopefully including us) than last time around. It’s also a fact that the average number of points for Prem safety in the last 10 seasons has been 35 and never once, in that period, higher than 38. But anyway I enjoyed your post and (like 538 for now) agree that we’ll be safe / better than safe.
 

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We've crept above Palace, Southampton, and Leeds in their predictions now. Chances of relegation at 15% now down from 23%, just shows what a win like that can do!

1632133346590.png
 

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- Three sides that are likely too good to go down but probably won’t join that push for Europe; Wolves, Villa, Leeds
say it ain't so :(
If Carlsberg did relegation trios :sorted:

A week on from your comment and Leeds now rated 2% more likely to go down than us.
Weren't loads of their fans declaring they would enjoy relegating us on the last day of the season?
Oh please, irony gods, please please please...
 

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We’ve crept up again.

Can’t take anything for granted and we know these things can change fast.

But great to see us make a positive early impression on the league. Just got to keep it up now!

631259E4-E8FA-47DD-AE31-272DBC71CC5A.jpeg
 

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Not surprisingly I think we will be fine.

WIth the excpetion of Wolves and Palace (14th and 15th) all the other games have been against those in the current top 10.


Obviously not losing to those bottom 5 teams will be key, starting with Burnley. I alos think we might change our tactics against Burnley
 

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It's funny that 538 reduced / adjusted Brentford's SPI rating during the close season as it has now regained all of it's previous value with interest. I think we closed last season on 67.0, it was reduced to 63.3 and is now at 68.8 (52nd in global ranking - our highest ever)
 

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It's funny that 538 reduced / adjusted Brentford's SPI rating during the close season as it has now regained all of it's previous value with interest. I think we closed last season on 67.0, it was reduced to 63.3 and is now at 68.8 (52nd in global ranking - our highest ever)
Maybe on the basis of having lost Dalsgaard, Marcondes and Daniels without yet replacing? Squad is now obviously stronger and game by game we’re generating more positive player strength data
 

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Maybe on the basis of having lost Dalsgaard, Marcondes and Daniels without yet replacing? Squad is now obviously stronger and game by game we’re generating more positive player strength data
Fair point but by the time it was adjusted at the start of the season we had a few new players too that should have been reflected in that score.
 

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Here’s the Infogol one (xG-based) for comparison purposes. On xG we should be two places higher to date, and they forecast a 14th place finish:

5A17BF98-1F35-40FC-B1D5-4ED3DB3CDA46.jpeg
 

BFC1997

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According to these guys now, we are pretty much equally as likely to make the Champions League as we are to be relegated!

Think that’s pushing it a bit personally. The picture can change rapidly and we can’t get complacent. But again, great to see us continue to make an impression at this level.

9421794C-12E5-4D45-A96D-F3E58A4E1A62.jpeg
 

Jay Bee

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According to these guys now, we are pretty much equally as likely to make the Champions League as we are to be relegated!

Think that’s pushing it a bit personally. The picture can change rapidly and we can’t get complacent. But again, great to see us continue to make an impression at this level.

View attachment 27912
Interesting stats. 94% chance of survival at this stage sounds good to me.

Someone in the other thread -the survival progress thread - had plotted a graph of survival chances after 4 games (where the % chance of relegation is > 10%) - by that criteria we wouldn't even feature on that graph now.
Predicted a higher finish than Leicester and Wolves too who have been comfortably in that 5th-7th bracket in recent seasons.
 

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I've already had two people mention "second season syndrome" to me.

Give it a rest, our first season is 7 games old and they're already telling me to worry about relegation next season... :banghead::ROFLMAO:
 

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I've equally seen a fair amount of 'they'll go down next season'. They also said we'd go down this season... with our recruitment I would trust us to build well, rather than spunk £20m on a player like Brewster while not signing a player to provide him any service. 'Second season syndrome' happens to teams who aren't good enough, but their determination and bravery pushes them to earn enough results the first year, while then struggling once teams know how to play against them. We have genuine quality and can compete at this level, we're no worse than most of the teams we're facing.

6% chance of relegation is pretty damn good at this stage! That's nearly saying we'd only get relegated 1 in 20 times! That graph probably is a fair table based on teams performances so far!
 

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I've equally seen a fair amount of 'they'll go down next season'. They also said we'd go down this season... with our recruitment I would trust us to build well, rather than spunk £20m on a player like Brewster while not signing a player to provide him any service. 'Second season syndrome' happens to teams who aren't good enough, but their determination and bravery pushes them to earn enough results the first year, while then struggling once teams know how to play against them. We have genuine quality and can compete at this level, we're no worse than most of the teams we're facing.
You're not wrong in what you say, but maybe we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in discussing next season?

I'll be delighted if we can just manage another 12 points from our next 7 games, to take us through to December:

Chelsea (H) - 0 points
Leicester (H) - 1 point
Burnley (A) - 1 point
Norwich (H) - 3 points
Newcastle (A) - 3 points
Everton (H) - 3 points
Spurs (A) - 1 point

Maybe swap rounnd the Leicester and Everton results(?), but either way, that would make another 3 x wins, 3 x draws and 1 x defeat, same as from the opening seven games.
 

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I would be willing to bet at least £1 that Phil and Rasmus are already planning for Yr2 scenarios.
No doubt they will be formulating plans for next season: Plan A if we stay up and Plan B if we go back down again.

But that doesn't mean they'll take their attention away from the next few games in hand either.

I know he's seen as a bit of a dinosaur, but Sam Allardyce always used to divide the season up into blocks of six games at a time, declining to look beyond that when it came to surveying the fixture list.

Sounds sensible to me.
 

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You're not wrong in what you say, but maybe we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in discussing next season?

I'll be delighted if we can just manage another 12 points from our next 7 games, to take us through to December:

Chelsea (H) - 0 points
Leicester (H) - 1 point
Burnley (A) - 1 point
Norwich (H) - 3 points
Newcastle (A) - 3 points
Everton (H) - 3 points
Spurs (A) - 1 point

Maybe swap rounnd the Leicester and Everton results(?), but either way, that would make another 3 x wins, 3 x draws and 1 x defeat, same as from the opening seven games.
Maybe not Chelsea (though we’ll go at them and if we play as well as v Liverpool at least a point is possible) but all the others are eminently winnable. Ask yourself what Ivan and Thomas will think before each game and believe.
 

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Maybe not Chelsea (though we’ll go at them and if we play as well as v Liverpool at least a point is possible) but all the others are eminently winnable. Ask yourself what Ivan and Thomas will think before each game and believe.
Agree that taken in isolation, all the others are eminently winnable, which will be the basis on which TF will approach each one, I'm sure.

But that's a lot different from saying Bees will win all six in a row.

I think we can take 12 points, but if I'm quite honest, I'd happily take 10, or even 7 or 8, so long as the performances continued to be good and we didn't suffer any bad injuries.
 

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After everyone has played 8 games:

AAA8774B-61D4-43B1-8B97-09476D021446.jpeg

Perhaps somewhat of a positive, according to their rankings we have only played two sides expected to finish below us (Villa, Palace).

The other six games have been against sides expected to finish above us (Wolves, Brighton, Arsenal, West Ham, Chelsea, Liverpool)

Despite defeat their model reckons we are now MORE LIKELY to reach the Champions League than be relegated.
 

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This and the table/graph in the Survival League thread does suggest that a gap is beginning to open up to the 4 prime candidates for relegation
 

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This and the table/graph in the Survival League thread does suggest that a gap is beginning to open up to the 4 prime candidates for relegation

Someone will join them. My money is on palace, but might be Southampton or wolves or Leeds.
 

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You're not wrong in what you say, but maybe we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in discussing next season?

I'll be delighted if we can just manage another 12 points from our next 7 games, to take us through to December:

Chelsea (H) - 0 points
Leicester (H) - 1 point
Burnley (A) - 1 point
Norwich (H) - 3 points
Newcastle (A) - 3 points
Everton (H) - 3 points
Spurs (A) - 1 point

Maybe swap rounnd the Leicester and Everton results(?), but either way, that would make another 3 x wins, 3 x draws and 1 x defeat, same as from the opening seven games.

I think that’s stretching it a little. I’d be very happy with 10 points from those games. Very happy.
 

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I think 50/50 for Newcastle is overstating it a bit. Expect to see the lucre thrown at it in the next transfer window. No guarantee it will work but if the replacement for the dead man walking incumbent manager is any good…they should comfortably survive
 

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I'd love to know the depth of the calculations that goes into these prediction tables. I'm sure it's detailed and vast, but...

...to me, it basically seems to be every time a team wins a game, they move up the table and their % chance of finishing higher up goes up with it. Lose and the opposite happens. I reckon I can maintain a similarly accurate table without the need for the complicate algorithms.

Reminds me of the old football pools predictor programs for home computers 35 years ago. They were pretty useless too!
 

PhilE

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.to me, it basically seems to be every time a team wins a game, they move up the table and their % chance of finishing higher up goes up with it. Lose and the opposite happens
Not quite what happened to us on Saturday. We lost but our relegation chance went down and UCL chance went up. It's the performance that counts too.
 
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