How will/should LR and other stadiums open/reopen to fans? (3 Viewers)

Banana

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i haven’t read the report so no idea on the accuracy of the figures but think you may have slightly misinterpreted:

The 1 in 1 million chance of dying was once you have it. So of every million that get it one will die not one in every million of total population.
So even fewer than 56 people will catch it (on the basis one can only catch it once). We know that;s not true already!
 

Gee Bee

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42K have died how does that equate to 1 in 1 million?
 

beesbees_bfc

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i haven’t read the report so no idea on the accuracy of the figures but think you may have slightly misinterpreted:

The 1 in 1 million chance of dying was once you have it. So of every million that get it one will die.
So even fewer than 56 people will catch it (on the basis one can only catch it once). We know that;s not true already!
No idea, just interpreting the stat not defending its validity
 

Banana

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No idea, just interpreting the stat not defending its validity
You cannot be interpreting it correctly. Thats the point.

42,000 have died in the UK
If the chances of dying after catching it were 1 in 1,000,000 then the population of the UK would have to be 42 BILLION and everyone would have had caught Covid.
 

AB

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So even fewer than 56 people will catch it (on the basis one can only catch it once). We know that;s not true already!
Is it proven that it can definitely only be caught once and thereafter immunity to reinfection persists?
 

marvelous007

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You cannot be interpreting it correctly. Thats the point.

42,000 have died in the UK
If the chances of dying after catching it were 1 in 1,000,000 then the population of the UK would have to be 42 BILLION and everyone would have had caught Covid.
Of course, every death is one too many. But how many people die in road traffic accidents, liver or kidney failure, cancer or heart attacks in the UK but we don't stop driving, crossing the road, take aways, smoking or drinking alohol..eed t start putting this into perspective and not shut down many industries. The depression caused by this covid will kill
 

Banana

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Of course, every death is one too many. But how many people die in road traffic accidents, liver or kidney failure, cancer or heart attacks in the UK but we don't stop driving, crossing the road, take aways, smoking or drinking alohol..eed t start putting this into perspective and not shut down many industries. The depression caused by this covid will kill
I GIVE IN.
 

beesbees_bfc

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You cannot be interpreting it correctly. Thats the point.

42,000 have died in the UK
If the chances of dying after catching it were 1 in 1,000,000 then the population of the UK would have to be 42 BILLION and everyone would have had caught Covid.
fair enough
 

mhead bee

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All of what you say may well be true but unfortunately we're at the mercy of the UK Government which may not take the same view.

My sense is that this week's announcement is the start, not the end of further restrictions and we're very likely to see winter curfews etc. All of this will make the return to stadiums less likely. The Govt is being led by the likes of Fergusson and Chris Whitty who are encouraging it to take a very cautious approach.

My own feeling is that we may well have gone a full 12 months without seeing a live game before we're allowed back in.

That is not what the govt said yesterday, they stated the exact the opposite. This is purely to stop the uplift in cases and NOT the lead in to further restrictions. Nothing is set in stone obviously but they certainly seem to want to continue coming out.

Realistically we have gone from recommending meetings of 6 to enforcing it, it is not really some massive step change as far as I can see.

if you look for bad news you will find it, if you look for the positives you will also find it.
 

Griffingreen

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Of course, every death is one too many. But how many people die in road traffic accidents, liver or kidney failure, cancer or heart attacks in the UK but we don't stop driving, crossing the road, take aways, smoking or drinking alohol..eed t start putting this into perspective and not shut down many industries. The depression caused by this covid will kill
Those deaths are on top of covid, how may choices of death do you want. Can you imagine the death rate if no lockdown or precautions were in place?
 

mhead bee

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You cannot be interpreting it correctly. Thats the point.

42,000 have died in the UK
If the chances of dying after catching it were 1 in 1,000,000 then the population of the UK would have to be 42 BILLION and everyone would have had caught Covid.
I think the chap is basing it on today's stats and the chances of dying from it now not what happened at the peak. One of the things he says is we are comparing positive tests today against positive tests at the peak when the total tests were much lower. Positive tests as a % against total tests would be far more representative. Had we been testing 200,000 a day at the peak the postive tests could have been much higher.

I am not completely sure how he is working it out but he is much cleverer than me. Lets say 65M in the UK, 2000 positive cases, that is 0.0000307 of the population will get it a positive test. Obviously that would only stack up if 65M were tested so he must be using some other algorithm to get 44 out of every million. He also says 1 in every 100 who gets a positive test die.
 

mhead bee

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Of course, every death is one too many. But how many people die in road traffic accidents, liver or kidney failure, cancer or heart attacks in the UK but we don't stop driving, crossing the road, take aways, smoking or drinking alohol..eed t start putting this into perspective and not shut down many industries. The depression caused by this covid will kill

As I posted just above, the bloke is working on probability relating to todays stats from ONS which of course are directly influenced by the partial lockdown and social distancing.

The issue with your point is if someone dies in a car crash, the ambulance driver, the police who attend and the morgue assistant don't also die from a car crash when they come into contact.
 

rebus

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Of course, every death is one too many. But how many people die in road traffic accidents, liver or kidney failure, cancer or heart attacks in the UK but we don't stop driving, crossing the road, take aways, smoking or drinking alohol..eed t start putting this into perspective and not shut down many industries. The depression caused by this covid will kill
You can’t catch a road death. Or by catch it by drinking alcohol. This is a preventable virus if we all adhere to the guidelines. If we don’t socially distance, this virus will be with us for months if not years to come.
 

Ealing Bee

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"You can’t catch a road death. Or by catch it by drinking alcohol. This is a preventable virus if we all adhere to the guidelines. If we don’t socially distance, this virus will be with us for months if not years to come."

Plus the fact that it's not an Either/Or: Covid-19 is an additional risk to car accident, kidney failure or your parachute not opening.
 

FJBee

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Of course, every death is one too many. But how many people die in road traffic accidents, liver or kidney failure, cancer or heart attacks in the UK but we don't stop driving, crossing the road, take aways, smoking or drinking alohol..eed t start putting this into perspective and not shut down many industries. The depression caused by this covid will kill
We do stop people driving if they don't do it responsibly and end up killing people. Similarly if a take away restaurant poisons a bunch of people.

Unfortunately with a virus we can't do the same thing and only lock down ****s who are more likely to spread it through their lack of care.
 
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Guildford Bee

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I think the chap is basing it on today's stats and the chances of dying from it now not what happened at the peak. One of the things he says is we are comparing positive tests today against positive tests at the peak when the total tests were much lower. Positive tests as a % against total tests would be far more representative. Had we been testing 200,000 a day at the peak the postive tests could have been much higher.

I am not completely sure how he is working it out but he is much cleverer than me. Lets say 65M in the UK, 2000 positive cases, that is 0.0000307 of the population will get it a positive test. Obviously that would only stack up if 65M were tested so he must be using some other algorithm to get 44 out of every million. He also says 1 in every 100 who gets a positive test die.
Random testing - of those without symptoms - has show cases of the virus have been rising since August.


This from The Times

"The React-1 study invites a random sample of people aged five and over to send in swabs that are tested for the virus, and has results from more than 300,000 volunteers.

The latest round of the study covers August 22 to September 7 and estimates that 13 people per 10,000 were infected in England, compared with 4 per 10,000 between July 24 and August 11."

I'd be very surprised if the restrictions announced this week are enough to prevent a resurgence
 

jlove

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You've got 50 years to have a tour of Lionel Road
Let loose the dogs...
Club email said:
As a Premium Seat Member, we are looking forward to inviting you to an exclusive stadium tour when Government guidelines allow.
 

Oceanbee

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All of what you say may well be true but unfortunately we're at the mercy of the UK Government which may not take the same view.

My sense is that this week's announcement is the start, not the end of further restrictions and we're very likely to see winter curfews etc. All of this will make the return to stadiums less likely. The Govt is being led by the likes of Fergusson and Chris Whitty who are encouraging it to take a very cautious approach.

My own feeling is that we may well have gone a full 12 months without seeing a live game before we're allowed back in.
I thought Prof. Neil Ferguson was the adviser who failed to keep his trouser zip lockdowned, and resigned. Hypocritical idiot.
He is also the guy who forecast 500,000 dying from this virus.

Probably distracted by the figure of his mistress spread across a sheet, instead of the figure on his spreadsheet.
 

Banana

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Suspect it will be a while before normal mask-less, high-occupancy stadiums. This from the BMJ....

1599869320131.png
 

Oceanbee

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Hopefully it wont come to that. I have just read an article by Tim Harford the Undercover Economist and he has been studying the stats from the ONS.

Currently the chances of catching Covid in England is 44 in 1 million, the chances of dying from covid is 1 in 1 million, the general chances of dying of other causes is also 1 in 1 million. Statistically you are more likely to die taking a bath or skiing apparently (not my study or words before I get accused of pretending to be an expert again.).

Just another viewpoint I suppose.

However it is caveated that if it spreads again then obviously things could change so follow the rules and we will be in GP before you know it.
I’m not sure those figures by this Harford guy are correct.

The facts are that 1 in 100 people die every year in the UK from something, whether a car crash or cancer.

1 in 400 die from cancer every year, whereas for Covid-19 the statistic is for this year 1 in 1500 people.

In fact, about 95% of people who will die this year, will die from anything else you can name except COVID-19.

The other fact is that the older you get, the more chance you have of dying!

And on that happy note, it’s back to football.
 

Ealing Bee

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Prof. Neil Ferguson... ...is ...the guy who forecast 500,000 dying from this virus.
Don't think he did.

He outlined a number of possible outcomes, the worst of which was that if nothing was done to suppress the virus, then 500,000 people could die before herd immunity kicked in and the virus faded.

In other words, a worst case scenario rather than a forecast.

(Though you're quite right about the "hypocritical idiot" bit)
 
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Guildford Bee

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From The Times


The number of fans allowed into sports events after October 1 may be restricted to between 1,000 and 2,500 if the government decides the coronavirus infection rate is too high to allow stadiums to be up to one-third full.

Senior figures in football have told The Times that there have been talks over resorting to such a plan if the original timescale has to be changed, although such a limit would be strongly opposed by Premier League clubs, who claim that safe measures are already in place for a larger-scale return of fans.

The option is one of several that are set to be discussed this week at a meeting of sports leaders with Oliver Dowden, the secretary of state for digital, culture, media and sport.


Allowing a much-reduced number of spectators would ease fears about the risk of transmission of the virus on public transport and in pubs before and after matches. It would also provide much-needed ticket money for League One and League Two clubs.
Whitehall insiders say there is still an aim to get as many fans as possible into stadiums from October 1, but that they will have to be guided by Public Health England. A decision must be taken soon as the RFU will need to start selling tickets for the autumn internationals at Twickenham, as will the FA for England matches at Wembley.

The Premier League clubs responded angrily to the government announcing last week that pilot events would be limited to 1,000 supporters, and said they would not take part in any such test events until more fans are allowed. Before the announcement, up to 2,500 people were allowed into such test events.
The English Football League (EFL) intends to push ahead with pilot events, however, with QPR v Middlesbrough on September 26 being one of the games at which 1,000 fans could be present.
An EFL source said: “We are more than happy to continue with the pilots and, if we cannot have stadiums a quarter full or a half full after October 1, most of our clubs would say some fans are better than nothing. In fact, if we could have 2,500 or more that would work very well for a lot of the smaller clubs.”
 

nocoat

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I’m not sure those figures by this Harford guy are correct.

The facts are that 1 in 100 people die every year in the UK from something, whether a car crash or cancer.
.

I’m not sure those figures by this Oceanbee guy are correct 😂

surely the implication by that is the average age on death is 100?
 

Mattingly Bee

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The club is giving former players from 10 plus years ago and their colleagues tours around the new stadium while the rest of us get nothing. Another example of the club treating the old hard core support with contempt.
 

Banana

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The club is giving former players from 10 plus years ago and their colleagues tours around the new stadium while the rest of us get nothing. Another example of the club treating the old hard core support with contempt.
Really? How many? All of them?
 

mhead bee

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42K have died how does that equate to 1 in 1 million?
The guy who wrote it to my understanding, is not working out how likely you are to have caught it over a 6 month period period, he is calculating the chances of you catching or dying from it as of the morning he worked it out.

I think he was simply working out when you leave the house today there is a 1 in a million chance you will die and a 1 in 2M chance you will die from Covid.

He attributes the low numbers to the lock down etc but was trying to work out what the chances are of you catching it today which are extremely low due to the lockdown.
 

Isleworth_Bee

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From The Times


The number of fans allowed into sports events after October 1 may be restricted to between 1,000 and 2,500 if the government decides the coronavirus infection rate is too high to allow stadiums to be up to one-third full.

Senior figures in football have told The Times that there have been talks over resorting to such a plan if the original timescale has to be changed, although such a limit would be strongly opposed by Premier League clubs, who claim that safe measures are already in place for a larger-scale return of fans.

The option is one of several that are set to be discussed this week at a meeting of sports leaders with Oliver Dowden, the secretary of state for digital, culture, media and sport.


Allowing a much-reduced number of spectators would ease fears about the risk of transmission of the virus on public transport and in pubs before and after matches. It would also provide much-needed ticket money for League One and League Two clubs.
Whitehall insiders say there is still an aim to get as many fans as possible into stadiums from October 1, but that they will have to be guided by Public Health England. A decision must be taken soon as the RFU will need to start selling tickets for the autumn internationals at Twickenham, as will the FA for England matches at Wembley.

The Premier League clubs responded angrily to the government announcing last week that pilot events would be limited to 1,000 supporters, and said they would not take part in any such test events until more fans are allowed. Before the announcement, up to 2,500 people were allowed into such test events.
The English Football League (EFL) intends to push ahead with pilot events, however, with QPR v Middlesbrough on September 26 being one of the games at which 1,000 fans could be present.
An EFL source said: “We are more than happy to continue with the pilots and, if we cannot have stadiums a quarter full or a half full after October 1, most of our clubs would say some fans are better than nothing. In fact, if we could have 2,500 or more that would work very well for a lot of the smaller clubs.”
Watching a game in front of 1000 fans really doesnt sound that appealing.
 

AB

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The club is giving former players from 10 plus years ago and their colleagues tours around the new stadium while the rest of us get nothing. Another example of the club treating the old hard core support with contempt.
They can’t do right for doing wrong in some people’s eyes. It’s only a few weeks since there was a great wailing and gnashing of teeth about how fans shouldn’t need to have bid for Alex Rhodes’ GP display board to let him have it and that this was disrespectful of our history and the contribution of players like him.
 

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He attributes the low numbers to the lock down etc but was trying to work out what the chances are of you catching it today which are extremely low due to the lockdown.
Not any more.
 

mhead bee

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Random testing - of those without symptoms - has show cases of the virus have been rising since August.


This from The Times

"The React-1 study invites a random sample of people aged five and over to send in swabs that are tested for the virus, and has results from more than 300,000 volunteers.

The latest round of the study covers August 22 to September 7 and estimates that 13 people per 10,000 were infected in England, compared with 4 per 10,000 between July 24 and August 11."

I'd be very surprised if the restrictions announced this week are enough to prevent a resurgence

The cases have been rising, no question, but the deaths have been pretty much single figures since the beginning of August. On the 31st March there were 3250 new cases and 670 deaths, on the 11th September 3539 new cases and only 6 deaths.

If the deaths stay low like they have over the last 6 weeks or so I can see no further restrictions coming. The government are desperate to get the world back up and running. obviously things can change very quickly but as of this moment they are probably really happy how the lock down has worked even though they wee far too late to the game.

 
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Guildford Bee

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The cases have been rising, no question, but the deaths have been pretty much single figures since the beginning of August. On the 31st March there were 3250 new cases and 670 deaths, on the 11th September 3539 new cases and only 6 deaths.

If the deaths stay low like they have over the last 6 weeks or so I can see no further restrictions coming. The government are desperate to get the world back up and running. obviously things can change very quickly but as of this moment they are probably really happy how the lock down has worked even though they wee far too late to the game.

Unfortunately hospitalisations have risen in recent weeks and some increase in deaths will no doubt follow - nine yesterday, compared to three last Monday. That number is likely to continue to rise for a couple of weeks at least.
 

Oceanbee

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EFL saying just now that 1000 will be let into Championship matches - from this weekend?

Who will be our lucky 1000?

1 person in every 17th seat for us! Bring a loud hailer with you, or perhaps the club will issue them!

Plus, don’t know about anyone else, but I haven’t received a season ticket yet!
 

hobbsy

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EFL saying just now that 1000 will be let into Championship matches - from this weekend?

Who will be our lucky 1000?

Plus, don’t know about anyone else, but I haven’t received a season ticket yet!
Not every EFL match, some pilot ones
 

mhead bee

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EFL saying just now that 1000 will be let into Championship matches - from this weekend?

Who will be our lucky 1000?

1 person in every 17th seat for us! Bring a loud hailer with you, or perhaps the club will issue them!

Plus, don’t know about anyone else, but I haven’t received a season ticket yet!
A lottery would be the best way and people from the same household are lumped in together so if my ball is picked it has a 2 on it so only 998 tickets left etc.

The 1000 lucky fans are not in the lottery for the next game and this continues until everyone has seen a game. And then we start again with maybe more fans in the lottery if more are allowed in the ground.

When we get to 5500 fans then it goes to all fans seeing every other game.
 

mhead bee

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Unfortunately hospitalisations have risen in recent weeks and some increase in deaths will no doubt follow - nine yesterday, compared to three last Monday. That number is likely to continue to rise for a couple of weeks at least.
Fewer people are dying and also vulnerable people are isolating so that alone will stop anything like what happened a few months ago.

Are hospitalisations going up? I have seen nothing on that in the news so just googled it and all I see is a load of reports saying they are not going up. Where did you see it?

It does seem that the young are the ones Gerri f it but they are no affected so they are going to build up large number of immunity.

Going 3-9 death in a week is not any kind of indications really, it has been going from 0-10 and back down to 2 for the last 6 weeks or so.
 

beesbees_bfc

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A lottery would be the best way and people from the same household are lumped in together so if my ball is picked it has a 2 on it so only 998 tickets left etc.

The 1000 lucky fans are not in the lottery for the next game and this continues until everyone has seen a game. And then we start again with maybe more fans in the lottery if more are allowed in the ground.

When we get to 5500 fans then it goes to all fans seeing every other game.
What happens If down to the last ticket, just keep picking balls out until you get one with a 1 on it?
 

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Will be interesting to see which clubs take up this pilot offer. For many just having 1,000 fans just wont make financial sense. And obviously understand why we haven't choosen too. Club has enough to deal with IE ST holders right now than more added fan pressure.
 

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Not sure if this is the right forum, but interestingly London Irish are selling their season tickets at Lionel Road to commence on 29 September 2020 (although I note that their "home" game vs Bristol on 4 Oct is still listed as being played at The Stoop). Surely LI fans won't be in Lionel Road before us, will they??
 

MDW82

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As a post script, the Rugby Premiership 20/21 season does not in fact start until weekend of 20-22 November, so, answering my own question, it seems unlikely that LI fans will be in first. Sorry for setting any hares running.
 

Gazza Bee

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As a post script, the Rugby Premiership 20/21 season does not in fact start until weekend of 20-22 November, so, answering my own question, it seems unlikely that LI fans will be in first. Sorry for setting any hares running.
Been discussed before - they are playing at Stoop this season so Nov at the earliest at LR
 

wanderer paul

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Been discussed before - they are playing at Stoop this season so Nov at the earliest at LR
Yes. Completing season 2019/20 at The Stoop and should be starting season 2020/21 at Lionel Road.
 

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Crowd Pilots: EFL confirm 10 upcoming games will host fans - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54175545

Luton, Boro and Norwich are Championship games
Surprised that Luton has been chosen. Their ground is surrounded by housing, unlike many modern grounds sited on a retail park or industrial estate. And some of those houses are so close that it must be hard to maintain 2 metres social distance when the neighbours pop to the bathroom, never mind from your fellow fans!
 

Banana

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Surprised that Luton has been chosen. Their ground is surrounded by housing, unlike many modern grounds sited on a retail park or industrial estate. And some of those houses are so close that it must be hard to maintain 2 metres social distance when the neighbours pop to the bathroom, never mind from your fellow fans!
Norwich too. I heard that they can only get in 2 or 3,000 max due to the size and configuration of their concourses etc. So maybe they are picking the most challenging stadiums. Or maybe those clubs already had plans for such a small number of fans to attend...
 

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