Survival Progress League

Jay Bee

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Indeed, fixture list has been kind to us.
The fantasy football guys reckon we have the easiest run out of all 20 teams from weeks 2 to 5 - Palace - Villa - Brighton - Wolves.

A bit of a selective sample given that we then have Liverpool - West Ham - Chelsea - but an early opportunity to establish some form. Rather than do what Fulham did, lose the easy games and then go in to the hard games 20th in the league.
 

epsombee2

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They weren't in the OP's original stab at the final 'bottom ten'. Got to make a working assumption to set the ball rolling and I think it was a reasonable one. Can review later in the season I guess.
 

StevieSteve

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If Arsenal are put in the relegation group then they're -1 and we drop down to Even so let's not do that
 
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After 3 matches

Brentford +3
Brighton +1
Watford +1
Soton +1
Leeds even
Wolves even
Norwich even
Palace -1
Newcastle -3
Burnley -5
 

AB

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The last newly promoted team to be undefeated after their first three games was Huddersfield in 17/18 and they stayed up so we’re on track. I think we fans will have a big role in supporting the club - we were the 12th man against Arsenal and keeping that up will help us to get the wins and draws at home that will make the task achievable. Outsinging 39,000 Villa fans will give the players a lift so that even if we concede first they know we’re behind them. The way we’re playing is defensively solid and hopefully we will tighten up on the mistakes and decision-making we’ve had so far as the players adjust. Attacking is also part of our defence strategy so the growing understanding between our forwards so we make more chances and take more of them with the crowd behind them will take us a long way. We also need to be able to bear the odd beating without losing faith, either in or among the players and management.
 

Shamrock_Bee

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I'm delighted with the start especially the win over Arsenal. The two away points were two good results as well. Those three and Brighton/Wolves provided us with an opportunity. At the start I thought Palace, Villa, Brighton and Wolves would be lower table and some of them would likely be fighting relegation, I didn't rate Villa too highly without Grealish and thought Wolves would struggle without Nuno.

Of them all Brighton have surprised me and I suspect next game will be our toughest of the season so far; 5 points is a great start but the fixtures after the next two are against teams likely to finish top 6 - 8.

It is possible to pick up points but very tough; overall 40 points is a still long way off because as we've seen with Norwich there'll likely be a run of fixtures where it'll be almost impossible to pick up points.
 
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beesbees_bfc

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I'm delighted with the start especially the win over Arsenal. The two away points were two good results as well. Those three and Brighton/Wolves provided us with an opportunity. At the start I thought Palace, Villa, Brighton and Wolves would be lower table and some of them would likely be fighting relegation, I didn't rate Villa too highly without Grealish and thought Wolves would struggle without Nuno.

Of them all Brighton have surprised me and I suspect next game will be our toughest of the season so far; 5 points is a great start but the fixtures after the next two are against teams likely to finish top 6 - 8.

It is possible to pick up points but very tough; overall 40 points is a still long way off because as we've seen with Norwich there'll likely be a run of fixtures where it'll be almost impossible to pick up points.
I agree with the points you’ve made but, hopefully, we won’t need 40 points.

Over the last seven seasons, the average points total to be safe is between 34 and 35. Highest total needed was 38 and lowest 29 (last season).
 

Hippobee

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It is possible to pick up points but very tough; overall 40 points is a still long way off because as we've seen with Norwich there'll likely be a run of fixtures where it'll be almost impossible to pick up points.

Yep. I think it's important to get a win from either of the next 2 (Brighton (H) and Wolves (A)) due to what comes up straight afterwards.
Liverpool, West Ham, Chelsea & Leicester!

By then, we'll have played 9 games - almost a quarter of the season and we'll have a really good idea of where we are in the PL standings. 6 points from those 6 games would be reasonable - giving us 11 points from 9 games. However, I'm sure we're aiming for higher.
 

grepo

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Yep. I think it's important to get a win from either of the next 2 (Brighton (H) and Wolves (A)) due to what comes up straight afterwards.
Liverpool, West Ham, Chelsea & Leicester!

By then, we'll have played 9 games - almost a quarter of the season and we'll have a really good idea of where we are in the PL standings. 6 points from those 6 games would be reasonable - giving us 11 points from 9 games. However, I'm sure we're aiming for higher.
11 from 10 historically has given an 83% chance of survival; so 11 from 9 would be a brilliant start to the season. Fingers crossed. As we adapt to this league, with our fantastic 12th man, great new ground and uniquely brilliant management, there's no reason why we shouldn't progress.
 

jlove

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I agree with the points you’ve made but, hopefully, we won’t need 40 points.

Over the last seven seasons, the average points total to be safe is between 34 and 35. Highest total needed was 38 and lowest 29 (last season).
Maybe we don't need 40 points but it's a good target to be clear of the relegation scrap, that will allow us to play a more controlled game. It will be also a significant recruitment boost if we're not seen as relegation contenders as we go towards our second season.
 
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Personally, I reckon this is more accurate!
From what I can work out they are saying to get to 39 points you win at home / lose away against the other 13 teams in this league and pick up no points against the top six (which has Arsenal instead of Leicester). Obviously it’s all just for fun but their one is very hard on Norwich who were expected to beat Leicester.
 

bexleybee

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Another perspective. We’ve been showing some ruthless efficiency. Would like to see us increasing our chances created from open play 0EB11F29-D489-480D-9BF4-FB6BB44F4121.jpeg
 

Isleworth_Bee

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Another perspective. We’ve been showing some ruthless efficiency. Would like to see us increasing our chances created from open play View attachment 27358
That table after 3 games isnt really worth looking at. We've started well, and i bet Thomas has set us out to start the season solidly ie not conceding goals first. The rest will come.

The first 5-10 games IMO is about getting a few wins under the belt, dont let in bundles and stay clear of the bottom three. Would rather be in our shoes to start with then say Norwich.

I also depends on who these teams have played.
 

wibs

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My genuine concern is we draw a lot of games but win very few and go down, and there is despite our tendencies to try to not sit on a draw.

There are literally no "guaranteed three points" games this season.
 

BFC1997

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My genuine concern is we draw a lot of games but win very few and go down, and there is despite our tendencies to try to not sit on a draw.

There are literally no "guaranteed three points" games this season.
This is why home form is massive. These last two away draws are solid results but wins at home are what will keep us up, if we can pull them off.

As fans, we need to make LR like it was vs Arsenal every single game.
 

Alan D

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Not sure if it's true, but a stato friend of mine told me that any promoted team to the prem who achieve 11 points, or more, from their first 10 games has never been relegated.
 

UnsungZero

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I have to say I think the betting market has overreacted to our decent start. You can now get 7/2 against Bees going down compared to around evens a few weeks before the season.
 

Leonardo

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I am happy where we are. But its a long season. We really need to get our offensive game working more and the return of Jensen and Ghoddos to fitness and form will help that and it won't be long before Mbeumo and Toney are smashing in the goals.

Howerver a pattern I see is Burnley have been the standout poor team. I expect them to go down as can't see them making big transfer gambles. Brighton I expect will be near the bottom. Palace don't look anything good to me but should just survive. Norwich have been so poor and are going to have improve massively to stay up. Watford also are going to flirting around relegation.

As long as we are not stupid we realistically will finish around 12th
 

Garybaldbee

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I am happy where we are. But its a long season. We really need to get our offensive game working more and the return of Jensen and Ghoddos to fitness and form will help that and it won't be long before Mbeumo and Toney are smashing in the goals.

Howerver a pattern I see is Burnley have been the standout poor team. I expect them to go down as can't see them making big transfer gambles. Brighton I expect will be near the bottom. Palace don't look anything good to me but should just survive. Norwich have been so poor and are going to have improve massively to stay up. Watford also are going to flirting around relegation.

As long as we are not stupid we realistically will finish around 12th

Burnley have just spent £13m on a winger from Lyon but I agree they look to be in trouble (though they often do early on in a season). All Brighton's data last year suggested they are a top 10 side. Its too early to judge Norwich. Their opening fixtures have been brutal. Let's see where we are after we've had our own nightmare run of fixtures after Wolves. I'm increasingly confident we can hold our own but would still bite your hand off for 17th.
 

Ealing Bee

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Burnley have just spent £13m on a winger from Lyon but I agree they look to be in trouble (though they often do early on in a season). All Brighton's data last year suggested they are a top 10 side. Its too early to judge Norwich. Their opening fixtures have been brutal. Let's see where we are after we've had our own nightmare run of fixtures after Wolves. I'm increasingly confident we can hold our own but would still bite your hand off for 17th.
Agree with all of this.

And even Wolves could be a (mini-)nightmare, if the way they outplayed Man U y'day is any guide.
 

Mikey Bee

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Not sure if it's true, but a stato friend of mine told me that any promoted team to the prem who achieve 11 points, or more, from their first 10 games has never been relegated.

 

Banana

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Ealing Bee

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I ... thought Wolves would struggle without Nuno.
So did I, but they look to me to be playing much better than their results indicate.

The problem is that their shot-to-goal conversion rate is appalling, but if they can solve that, then they can do ok.

Jimenez making a complete recovery from his horrible injury could be the key.
 

farm cove bee

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Winning at home is the key to survival in our first year and the vocal support at BCS will go a long way to helping the team achieve those wins.
The passion and noise from the Arsenal game needs to be heard at every game and if we maintain that momentum we will be okay, you all have your part to play.
All the best from an ex New Roader.
 
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Brighton +3
Palace +2
Wolves +2
Soton +1
Brentford even
Leeds even
Norwich even
Watford -2
Newcastle -3
Burnley -5
 

vcmazz

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Survival. Survival indeed. We've played five Premier League games and been beaten once in a game that with the rub of the green we could have won 3-0. Is it just me, or is this the most negative thread in the history of football forum threadyness? Somebody who understands this golf stuff, start a Top Six Finish Progress League ffs. :rolleyes: Ivan has the right idea. As he said in his post match interview, he's aiming to finish top. Be like Ivan. Down with this sort of thing. :sorted:
 
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RAF_Patto

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Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley.

As long as we keep our heads above these, I think we'll be safe.

Another 3 points to 40; first target this and then move on beyond it.
 

badgerbee

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Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley.

As long as we keep our heads above these, I think we'll be safe.

Another 3 points to 40; first target this and then move on beyond it.
Think??
😁
Or are the PL considering relegating more than 3 teams this season??!! 😁
 
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Survival. Survival indeed. We've played five Premier League games and been beaten once in a game that with the rub of the green we could have won 3-0. Is it just me, or is this the most negative thread in the history of football forum threadyness? Somebody who understands this golf stuff, start a Top Six Finish Progress League ffs. :rolleyes: Ivan has the right idea. As he said in his post match interview, he's aiming to finish top. Be like Ivan. Down with this sort of thing. :sorted:
It’s not just a league for Brentford is it? Every single club in the league aims for 40 points and then they can push for Europe. The reality is three of these teams will go down and the league shows performance against fixtures rather than just points. IF we lose our next five fixtures it will show we are still ahead of our minimum requirement to survive which I don’t think anyone would view as negative.
I could easily do a top six finish progress league but we’d be on minus five so it’s probably better to have realistic expectations considering how well we’ve done.
 
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After 5 matches

Brighton +6
Brentford +2
Palace +2
Soton +2
Watford even
Wolves even
Leeds even
Norwich -3
Newcastle -5
Burnley -6

Brighton are now 28-1 with Bet365 to be relegated. Villa who I didn’t include are 12-1 (they would be around -1 as it stands).
Brentford can only gain against par in the next four games as each is one the 16 hardest rated fixtures for the purposes of this.
 

epsombee2

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After 5 matches

Brighton +6
Brentford +2
Palace +2
Soton +2
Watford even
Wolves even
Leeds even
Norwich -3
Newcastle -5
Burnley -6

Brighton are now 28-1 with Bet365 to be relegated. Villa who I didn’t include are 12-1 (they would be around -1 as it stands).
Brentford can only gain against par in the next four games as each is one the 16 hardest rated fixtures for the purposes of this.
 

epsombee2

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"Performance against fixtures rather than just points" - a deceptively simple but insightful way of assessing our progress this season. We've bagged a decent 8 points from the 'right' games (shame about Brighton) and the next four games are now free hits, so let's go for it. The aim is not just survival but to get promoted from the survival league into the 'middle of the table league'. Top 6 a bit of a stretch this season I think. Probably need to re-set the likely bottom 10 teams after 19 games or something like that.
 

Mikey Bee

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Progress.jpg
 
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