Survival Progress League

amersfoort bee

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After 5 games we're only 5 points behind the joint leaders.
We're also 6 points clear of the bottom three.
No reason why we shouldn't aspire to a top six finish. :hat:
We can aspire all we like but realistically that is a level we can't hope to reach this season. Next season perhaps but not this.
 

AB

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Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley.

As long as we keep our heads above these, I think we'll be safe.

Another 3 points to 40; first target this and then move on beyond it.
At the current rate of progress we’re on target for that after 25 games leaving 13 and 39 points to play for. At the same rate all season we get 61 points. Which was enough for 8th last season.
 

beesbees_bfc

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At the current rate of progress we’re on target for that after 25 games leaving 13 and 39 points to play for. At the same rate all season we get 61 points. Which was enough for 8th last season.
If that’s still the case after the next four games I think we’ll all start to believe!
 

AB

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If that’s still the case after the next four games I think we’ll all start to believe!
Just needs wins v West Ham and Leicester. Doable.
 

beesbees_bfc

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Just needs wins v West Ham and Leicester. Doable.
Doable but, if we managed it, shouldn’t underestimate what an achievement and excellent start to the season that would be
 
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Leonardo

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Think we've done really well so far and pray we reach that 40 points ASAP.
I do worry though if Toney picked up significant injury as both Forss and Wissa are very different types of player and require changes to our successful formation
 

ITK

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Think we've done really well so far and pray we reach that 40 points ASAP.
I do worry though if Toney picked up significant injury as both Forss and Wissa are very different types of player and require changes to our successful formation
I believe the club must have looked at this possibility and have a plan in place.. Trust those in charge they haven’t done badly so far.
 

swr22

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After 5 matches

Brighton +6
Brentford +2
Palace +2
Soton +2
Watford even
Wolves even
Leeds even
Norwich -3
Newcastle -5
Burnley -6

Brighton are now 28-1 with Bet365 to be relegated. Villa who I didn’t include are 12-1 (they would be around -1 as it stands).
Brentford can only gain against par in the next four games as each is one the 16 hardest rated fixtures for the purposes of this.
Brighton were a top 10 by underlying numbers last season and I have a decent bet on that they will be this season.
 

GABS

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I believe the club must have looked at this possibility and have a plan in place.. Trust those in charge they haven’t done badly so far.
Zanka up top as a target man. Well, they tried Goode last season 😂
 
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Brighton +6
Brentford +3
Wolves +2
Palace Even
Soton -1
Leeds -1
Watford -2
Norwich -3
Newcastle -5
Burnley -5

Daniel Farke actually said in tv interview before this weekends game that Norwich were three points behind their target so it shows that some clubs at least must use similar leagues.
Interesting that we’ve already played the three other teams currently on course to survive.
As it stands we are on target for a 12th place or higher finish but we should remember that two seasons ago Norwich beat Manchester City in their fifth game of the season. They finished bottom with 21 points.
 
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Brighton +6
Brentford +6
Wolves +1
Palace +1
Leeds -1
Soton -1
Watford -3
Norwich -3
Newcastle -6
Burnley -7

Watford’s 7 points obviously not enough for the owners and the table does show that they are underperforming especially when 3 of those points were against Norwich.
At the moment it looks as though 40 points will be more than required.
 

StevieSteve

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Brighton +6
Brentford +6
Wolves +1
Palace +1
Leeds -1
Soton -1
Watford -3
Norwich -3
Newcastle -6
Burnley -7

Watford’s 7 points obviously not enough for the owners and the table does show that they are underperforming especially when 3 of those points were against Norwich.
At the moment it looks as though 40 points will be more than required.
Don't really agree with that last conclusion- if you've got 4 teams heading for under 40 points, then you don't need more than 40 to be above them.
 

bexleybee

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Fun fact. After game week 7 of 20/21 season, the bottom 5 clubs at that point, ended up being the bottom 5 on the final day with Burnley getting themselves off the bottom and Brighton treading enough water to keep clear.
 

malvernbee

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Ray Bigger doing VAR & Michael Hair the linesman against Leeds last game.😁
 
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Brighton +6
Brentford +6
Wolves +5
Palace +2
Soton -1
Leeds -2
Watford -3
Norwich -5
Newcastle -6
Burnley -7

Good week for Wolves but the only other team to improve was Palace and they’ll be gutted to only get a point tonight.
 

Aussie Bee

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I'm waiting for the wheels to fall off but we seem to be getting better each week lol

Long may it continue!!! 👍❤️👍
 

A Real Mysteron

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The problem is that the media are currently in stage one of the build them up, knock them down routine.
Stage 2 will be viscous.
 

I'll Bee Damned

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The wheels can come off quickly, I remember 92/93 beating Portsmouth at home and thinking we had comfortably enough to stay up, so I won't believe we're safe until we are.

However, we are proving, not only very difficult to beat, but are a constant threat. Bravery has been the key and even when we've lost, which has only been to a single goal on each occasion, we've been in the game until the end.

We only have to be better than 3 other teams and I can see Norwich, Watford and, if a new manager doesn't change their fortunes, Newcastle having a bigger job of staying up. They lack the squads. tactical approach and attitude that we have and that needs comprehensively reforming before they turn results around (the graphs for those 3 teams above, courtesy of @Hungerford Bee, have an upward trajectory which won't be easy to turn around) .

The foundations of squad, tactical approach and attitude are all very much in place for us
 

AB

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I thought when the fixtures came out the challenge would be to avoid being adrift after playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, leicester and a bunch of decent upper midtable aimed teams by now. We’ve just got Leicester of those to come but have done great. The worry now for me is whether players and fans can keep that up in the run of games coming against relegation candidates. If we don’t we can rapidly be drawn down there while giving them all a boost. We really need to turn it up against Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle in this next little run after another good game v Leicester.
 

BFC1997

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I thought when the fixtures came out the challenge would be to avoid being adrift after playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, leicester and a bunch of decent upper midtable aimed teams by now. We’ve just got Leicester of those to come but have done great. The worry now for me is whether players and fans can keep that up in the run of games coming against relegation candidates. If we don’t we can rapidly be drawn down there while giving them all a boost. We really need to turn it up against Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle in this next little run after another good game v Leicester.
They’re all cup finals until we are safe. Long long way to go.
 

GuyBee

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I thought when the fixtures came out the challenge would be to avoid being adrift after playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, leicester and a bunch of decent upper midtable aimed teams by now. We’ve just got Leicester of those to come but have done great. The worry now for me is whether players and fans can keep that up in the run of games coming against relegation candidates. If we don’t we can rapidly be drawn down there while giving them all a boost. We really need to turn it up against Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle in this next little run after another good game v Leicester.
Those games against Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle are more important than the ones against Arse, Chelski and the scousers
 

Invipai

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We have a 9 point buffer from the relegation zone and are clearly better than at least 6 of the teams below us. I can't see it without a spectacular implode.

Of course form may dip, if momentum drops or results start to turn. But if we get relegated from here then I don't know what to say. We're easily good enough to not have to worry about it, just need to keep getting results.
 

kaebess

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I thought when the fixtures came out the challenge would be to avoid being adrift after playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, leicester and a bunch of decent upper midtable aimed teams by now. We’ve just got Leicester of those to come but have done great. The worry now for me is whether players and fans can keep that up in the run of games coming against relegation candidates. If we don’t we can rapidly be drawn down there while giving them all a boost. We really need to turn it up against Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle in this next little run after another good game v Leicester.

As you say, we need the points against, Burnley, Norwich, Newcastle and the like. I think with the intensity we have been playing with, I am worried we will struggle to be up for every game as much, when we have to bring some mid week and holiday games in during December, especially with a few out injured at present.
 

Gazza Bee

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Every single game requires maximum focus and performance if we are to survive but I am fairly confident that we have enough to stay up - we will go on runs where we don't win for 4,5,6 games but the performances against the top sides have really built confidence that we can not only compete against the middling teams but also the best teams in Europe (whether this will be the case away from home is more doubtful IMHO).
 

Balders Bee

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Every single game requires maximum focus and performance if we are to survive but I am fairly confident that we have enough to stay up - we will go on runs where we don't win for 4,5,6 games but the performances against the top sides have really built confidence that we can not only compete against the middling teams but also the best teams in Europe (whether this will be the case away from home is more doubtful IMHO).
Why we haven't lost away from home and our away results suggest to me that we can be competitive in any fixture this season as long as we bring our A game?
 

Gazza Bee

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Why we haven't lost away from home and our away results suggest to me that we can be competitive in any fixture this season as long as we bring our A game?
We have played 'easier' teams away so far - not sure we will compete with the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City away from home but that is just my opinion
 

Kingston Bee

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The big unknown for me is the number of players we will lose to injuries over time. In most positions we have good backup but in 1 or 2 positions we are light. The bench looked weak against Chelsea after 3 or 4 players as we already have 4 out. If we can put out a relatively strong team every game we will have no problems from what I have seen so far, but if we pick up further injuries we could struggle, and the season could look very different. It is of course an unknown, but we will require a little luck in this area if we are to maintain the good progress we have made to date.
 
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AB

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We have played 'easier' teams away so far - not sure we will compete with the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City away from home but that is just my opinion
I think we’ll compete with everyone but that doesn’t mean we’ll get points off the big boys (as with Chelsea at home). But avoiding getting the routine 5-0s that the big teams are dishing out at half pelt against the weaker teams is an achievement in itself.
 

Ealing Bee

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Those games against Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle are more important than the ones against Arse, Chelski and the scousers
Certainly in the first half of the season.

But if we can get decent results in them, come the second half a series of draws will be enough to maintain the gap which will likely have built up.

(That's if you're thinking solely about avoiding relegation - hopefully our sights will be set higher than that come the New Year?)
 

Balders Bee

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We have played 'easier' teams away so far - not sure we will compete with the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City away from home but that is just my opinion
I'm not sure Villa, Palace, Wolves or West Ham would be termed 'easier' in this division though I accept the comparison in respect of Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City. I think our team are well set up to play away from home and will pick up decent results away from the Community Stadium & I do think we will be capable of picking up points off of the top three or four on occasion as well. As you say just differing opinions.
 

BudleighBee

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The thing is we have been without Janelt, Ajer, Wissa, Mads Bech and Josh and the players that have come in have been incredible. We certainly turned up v Chelsea and sprung the great result against West Ham (ok, with Wissa I must admit). It has been said that we don't have strength in depth. I beg to disagree, I think we have. No complacency, I remember 92/93 as well, but it is looking quite good at the moment and we have excellent players to come back and depth for the cold, bleak winter ahead. Just added: We didn't even use Bidstrup or Roeslev against Chelsea and Baptiste was out too. Our 2nd team won 7-0 and we have a good second keeper as well. It's even better than I thought. Still not complacent though.
 
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Ealing Bee

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The thing is we have been without Janelt, Ajer, Wissa, Mads Bech and Josh and the players that have come in have been incredible. We certainly turned up v Chelsea and sprung the great result against West Ham (ok, with Wissa I must admit). It has been said that we don't have strength in depth. I beg to disagree, I think we have. No complacency, I remember 92/93 as well, but it is looking quite good at the moment and we have excellent players to come back and depth for the cold, bleak winter ahead. Just added: We didn't even use Bidstrup or Roeslev against Chelsea and Baptiste was out too. Our 2nd team won 7-0 and we have a good second keeper as well. It's even better than I thought. Still not complacent though.
I agree the players look to be good enough, even including the younger, squad players.

But that's only the half of it (imo). It remains to be seen whether they're also also what I call "battle-hardened" i.e. physically and mentally tough enough to keep it up for a whole season, including spells when things are going against them.

I've no doubt that the senior players will cope, but if we sustained 3 or 4 long-term injuries to key players, could their replacements from the fringe of the squad be relied upon over a run of 15, 20 or 25 games? (Eg Forss for Toney)

All that said, I've no doubt the people at the club are far more aware of this than I'll ever know, and presumably will be planning for the possibility of getting tested in that way, should the need arise. :sorted:
 
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