Teams that cannot finish above us 2021/2022 edition

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BFC1997

BFC1997

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Everton have 15 points to play for and are 11 behind us.

They play tomorrow (Leicester) and then Wednesday (Watford), before facing us next weekend.
 
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BFC1997

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Leeds can technically catch us if they win their final three on the bounce and we lose our two. But it would need a GD swing of 27 goals.

We are all but mathematically safe from relegation!
 

wibs

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Leeds can technically catch us if they win their final three on the bounce and we lose our two. But it would need a GD swing of 27 goals.

We are all but mathematically safe from relegation!

FINALLY!!

I have been one of the ones who havent been able to 100% relax, even when we beat Burnley, Watford and Chelsea. But now, Im able to join in with the silly ones who were saying back in February, dont worry theres no chance we are going down.
 

Jay Bee

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Safety will be mathematically ensured prior to the Everton game.... if Leeds drop points at home to Chelsea on Wednesday, or Burnley drop points away to Spurs (midday on Sunday).

There may be other clubs that can join the "can't catch us" list soon too... I haven't looked at every club.
 

djheavens

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Not quite DJ.
If Leeds beat us 5-nil on the 22nd and we lose 7-nil at Goodison ALL Leeds have to do is beat both Chelsea and BHA by 5 clear goals.

But don’t worry untowardly as Leeds have only average one goal/game over the whole season.

:whoosh:
Thanks now you really have put my mind at ease 😉😂
 

BEEcool

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FINALLY!!

I have been one of the ones who havent been able to 100% relax, even when we beat Burnley, Watford and Chelsea. But now, Im able to join in with the silly ones who were saying back in February, dont worry theres no chance we are going down.
I have also given up worrying about going down this season and have started worrying about next season instead.
 

djheavens

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I have also given up worrying about going down this season and have started worrying about next season instead.
Nah! If we can 2-3 real quality players to the group we can really push on next season.
 

CTBee

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FINALLY!!

I have been one of the ones who havent been able to 100% relax, even when we beat Burnley, Watford and Chelsea. But now, Im able to join in with the silly ones who were saying back in February, dont worry theres no chance we are going down.
The silly ones who were right all along?
 

hairman

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FINALLY!!

I have been one of the ones who havent been able to 100% relax, even when we beat Burnley, Watford and Chelsea. But now, Im able to join in with the silly ones who were saying back in February, dont worry theres no chance we are going down.
So glad I was amongst the silly ones. I've been able to enjoy the games without soiling myself about what won't happen in the future.
 

wibs

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The silly ones who were right all along?
Yup, it was silly to say we were safe on 30 points with two months of the season still to go. You wouldn't have put your mortgage on it.

But if you want to receive some "told you so" praise, then well done, yes you are right.
 

LboroBee

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Ok so if I’ve understood right, Leeds need to win 5-0 and 6-0 and 6-0, to make their GD -17.

That combined with Brentford losing 4-0 and 6-0 (with the 0-6 being against Leeds) to make Brentford GD -18.

Have sillier things happened? :fishing:
 

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To all the "we've nothing to worry about" brigade, it's worth noting that it's taken us 43 points and a run of 6 wins from 9 to get us to a position of (virtual) mathematical safety. If we'd won, say, 4 out of those 9 (which would still have been pretty decent!) we'd be sat on 37 points and definitely not comfortable right now. Looking back, our situation prior to Norwich was pretty grim and it could have worked out badly for us.
 

GP200

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To all the "we've nothing to worry about" brigade, it's worth noting that it's taken us 43 points and a run of 6 wins from 9 to get us to a position of (virtual) mathematical safety. If we'd won, say, 4 out of those 9 (which would still have been pretty decent!) we'd be sat on 37 points and definitely not comfortable right now. Looking back, our situation prior to Norwich was pretty grim and it could have worked out badly for us.
..........oh deary me............
 

RAF_Patto

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To all the "we've nothing to worry about" brigade, it's worth noting that it's taken us 43 points and a run of 6 wins from 9 to get us to a position of (virtual) mathematical safety. If we'd won, say, 4 out of those 9 (which would still have been pretty decent!) we'd be sat on 37 points and definitely not comfortable right now. Looking back, our situation prior to Norwich was pretty grim and it could have worked out badly for us.
That's like saying if we'd won every game up to this point, we'd have won the league title 🤷‍♂️ We've survived, the number of points required is irrelevant, our mission was to stay up!
 

Cbee

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To all the "we've nothing to worry about" brigade, it's worth noting that it's taken us 43 points and a run of 6 wins from 9 to get us to a position of (virtual) mathematical safety. If we'd won, say, 4 out of those 9 (which would still have been pretty decent!) we'd be sat on 37 points and definitely not comfortable right now. Looking back, our situation prior to Norwich was pretty grim and it could have worked out badly for us.
If’s, but’s and maybe’s.
 

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Yup, it was silly to say we were safe on 30 points with two months of the season still to go. You wouldn't have put your mortgage on it.

But if you want to receive some "told you so" praise, then well done, yes you are right.
I’m with you 100%. We’ve supported Brentford all our lives, not Man Utd - we half expect it all to go wrong because it so often does. If Brentford haven’t given you PTSD, then you haven’t been a fan very long!
 

AB

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Leeds can technically catch us if they win their final three on the bounce and we lose our two. But it would need a GD swing of 27 goals.

We are all but mathematically safe from relegation!
This basically requires the freak Northampton/Bristol Rovers swing yesterday to happen in each of five games rather than just a single pair of games.
 

Rob-BEE

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That's like saying if we'd won every game up to this point, we'd have won the league title 🤷‍♂️ We've survived, the number of points required is irrelevant, our mission was to stay up!
My point is, a number of posters were shot down a few weeks back for being worried about our position. I think that's unfair. We've done a fantastic job to turn it around, but the fact that, in the end, we've had to pick up as many points as we have to be safe, should be a warning against complacency.

Personally, like others, I was sure 33-35 points would have been enough to survive. It's now looking more like 37-40. Wind the clock back 2 months and not many of us would have been too confident of getting that.
 

sonofabee

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My point is, a number of posters were shot down a few weeks back for being worried about our position. I think that's unfair. We've done a fantastic job to turn it around, but the fact that, in the end, we've had to pick up as many points as we have to be safe, should be a warning against complacency.

Personally, like others, I was sure 33-35 points would have been enough to survive. It's now looking more like 37-40. Wind the clock back 2 months and not many of us would have been too confident of getting that.
100%, I thought 38 was needed but in fairness it might turn out to be 40 that was originally seen as home and dry.
 

Silly Hat

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Yup, it was silly to say we were safe on 30 points with two months of the season still to go. You wouldn't have put your mortgage on it.

But if you want to receive some "told you so" praise, then well done, yes you are right.

Can you please reference any GPGers who said on 8 March 2022 that 30 points were enough for Brentford to avoid relegation?

Show your workings.

On the flip side, at least you’ve temporarily stopped criticising Jensen whilst pretending that you’re not criticising Jensen. Thank you for that 👏
 

wibs

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Can you please reference any GPGers who said on 8 March 2022 that 30 points were enough for Brentford to avoid relegation?

Show your workings.

On the flip side, at least you’ve temporarily stopped criticising Jensen whilst pretending that you’re not criticising Jensen. Thank you for that 👏

Whatever
 

Banana

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Can you please reference any GPGers who said on 8 March 2022 that 30 points were enough for Brentford to avoid relegation?

Show your workings.

On the flip side, at least you’ve temporarily stopped criticising Jensen whilst pretending that you’re not criticising Jensen. Thank you for that 👏
There were none. Absolutely none.
 

Rob-BEE

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So glad I was amongst the silly ones. I've been able to enjoy the games without soiling myself about what won't happen in the future.
I think it's ok to feel confident about staying up but at the same time fearing it might still happen. That's pretty much how I feel about next season right now and I can assure you I won't be "soiling myself" about it!
 

nocoat

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There were none. Absolutely none.

I believe there were. There were certainly lots of posts saying 30-35 would be enough. Im not going to waste time searching for them. Believe me or don’t believe me but my recollection was the anti bedwetters were moving the goal posts as regards how many points we needed on a weekly basis 😆
 
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BFC1997

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I believe there were. There were certainly lots of posts saying 30-35 would be enough. Im not going to waste time searching for them. Believe me or don’t believe me but my recollection was the anti bedwetters were moving the goal posts as regards how many points we needed on a weekly basis 😆
It’s def true that most thought low-to-mid 30s would be enough points this season.

The consensus being that those below us with games in hand would not suddenly have a major upturn in form. Everton and Burnley have done so.

Doesn’t matter anyway as we’ve kept our distance with our own results.
 
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BFC1997

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Here’s the table approximately 10 games ago, after the Newcastle defeat:

6CE409E2-1457-484C-9794-3BB25F7F2360.jpeg

Since then, points picked up:

Norwich - 4pts (0.44PPG)
Watford - 3pts (0.33PPG)
Burnley - 13pts (1.18PPG)
Everton - 15 pts (1.5PPG)
Leeds - 11pts (1.22PPG)
Brentford - 19pts (2.11PPG)
 

TadB

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I believe there were. There were certainly lots of posts saying 30-35 would be enough. Im not going to waste time searching for them. Believe me or don’t believe me but my recollection was the anti bedwetters were moving the goal posts as regards how many points we needed on a weekly basis 😆
The issue is that we have never once this season been in relegation trouble, never! Yes, several months back during a bad run the stalwarts amongst us had a few nervous glances over their shoulders. The main point at issue here is that at no point during our entire first season in the Premier League have we ever been candidates for relegation.
 

nocoat

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The issue is that we have never once this season been in relegation trouble, never! Yes, several months back during a bad run the stalwarts amongst us had a few nervous glances over their shoulders. The main point at issue here is that at no point during our entire first season in the Premier League have we ever been candidates for relegation.

that may be your issue but it wasn’t @wibs issue and the point I was quoting !

In any case it’s arguable that we were never candidates when you look at that table above . I’ve not even ventured to the washing basket to look at the state of my boxer shorts after that Newcastle game
 

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that may be your issue but it wasn’t @wibs issue and the point I was quoting !

In any case it’s arguable that we were never candidates when you look at that table above . I’ve not even ventured to the washing basket to look at the state of my boxer shorts after that Newcastle game
I do not agree! It is not just the League Table the fixture list is just as important.
 

bexleybee

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Looking again at the run-in this morning. And yeah Leeds are in big trouble. Burnley and Everton look as though they've got games where they can pick up points
 

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I’m with you 100%. We’ve supported Brentford all our lives, not Man Utd - we half expect it all to go wrong because it so often does. If Brentford haven’t given you PTSD, then you haven’t been a fan very long!
Does PTSD stand for Points Disaster?
 

Rob-BEE

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that may be your issue but it wasn’t @wibs issue and the point I was quoting !

In any case it’s arguable that we were never candidates when you look at that table above . I’ve not even ventured to the washing basket to look at the state of my boxer shorts after that Newcastle game
Sorry, but "never candidates for relegation" is a bit ridiculous. We were not FAVOURITES for relegation, nor even were we ever odds on, but being favourites and being candidates are two very different things! By your definition, are Liverpool no longer candidates to win the league?

EDIT: I think actually you may have been making the same point as me in arguing against @TadB's post!
 

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We definitely *were* in relegation trouble, even if we were never the favourites to go down ('sleepwalking toward relegation' was a phrase my non-Brentford friend used).

538 had us at 22% before the Norwich game, which looking at the above table looks about right. Fortunately there were some very poor teams below us and we managed to put them away. Things could have gone differently if we hadn't won those crucial games, but we did which was all that mattered... And then we won many more since!

Relegation has more been a milt irritant than a real worry for the most part, but there definitely was a chance we could go down in late Feb if things continued to go badly.
 

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