• Remember 6pm Kick Off today. On iFollow or Sky (Arena Channel)

The 2021 GPG Supercomputer (after Blackburn(A))

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
By popular demand the GPG Supercomputer has returned. A whole day of screwdrivers and poking has been necessary to coax the old girl back to life.

Forget 538, Forget all the others. This is the true, never been wrong, GPG Supercomputer!

10,000,000,000 simulations later and she's come out with the truth. Can you handle the truth??? Let find out....

Chances of Automatic Promotion
Brentford: 82.46%
Swansea: 68.39%
Norwich: 40.06%
Watford 4.14%
Reading 2.92%
Bournemouth: 1.29%
all others < 1%


Chances of Top Six Finish
Brentford: 99.89%
Swansea: 99.48%
Norwich: 98.92%
Watford: 75.40%
Reading: 67.97%
Bournemouth: 52.93%
Blackburn: 30.50%
Middlesboro: 18.77%
Stoke: 22.28%
Cardiff: 10.83%
all others < 6%

Brentford Final Position
1st: 53.54%
2nd: 28.92%
3rd: 13.44%
4th: 2.95%
5th: 0.80%
6th: 0.24%

Lowest Possible Finish:
16th: 0.000003%

Most Likely Points at End of Season:
94: 6.172%

Minimum Likely Number of Points to Win Championship (Any Team):
96: 51.42%

Minimum Likely Number of Points to Win Auto Promotion (Any Team):
91: 58.06%

Points Required for Brentford to Absolutely Guarantee Promotion (100% certain):
106

Points Required for Brentford to Absolutely Guarantee That Beautiful Trophy (100% certain):
111
 
Last edited:

FJBee

Member
Joined
24 Apr 2014
Messages
770
Reaction score
125
Seems odd that our likely predicted points is less than what the supercomputer predicts is needed for the title, but we’re also the favourite by some distance to be promoted. Seems like something isn’t working there
 

PhilE

Definitely European Then :)
Joined
24 Mar 2014
Messages
3,897
Reaction score
188
Location
Camberley
So is this saying we have a 61.72% chance of getting exactly 94 points?

Surely that can't be right.
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
Seems odd that our likely predicted points is less than what the supercomputer predicts is needed for the title, but we’re also the favourite by some distance to be promoted. Seems like something isn’t working there
So is this saying we have a 61.72% chance of getting exactly 94 points?

Surely that can't be right.
Correct.

6.172%, now corrected.
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
Great stuff. Any chance of a run down of our chances for each points total...or at least the ones > 1%.
Percentage on left, culminative percentage on right.

e.g. 4.15% (left hand column) of 88 points, 22.77% (right hand column) chance of AT MOST 88 points. So (100% - 22.77%) = 77.23% of AT LEAST 88 points.

81: 1.079114 3.986060
82: 1.387225 5.373285
83: 1.743772 7.117057
84: 2.154358 9.271415
85: 2.612271 11.883686
86: 3.108033 14.991719
87: 3.624762 18.616481
88: 4.155691 22.772172
89: 4.668952 27.441124
90: 5.151676 32.592800
91: 5.556076 38.148876
92: 5.878986 44.027862
93: 6.102409 50.130271
94: 6.172293 56.302564
95: 6.111959 62.414523
96: 5.941947 68.356470
97: 5.578069 73.934539
98: 5.128550 79.063089
99: 4.609985 83.673074
100: 3.941709 87.614783
101: 3.330522 90.945305
102: 2.713543 93.658848
103: 2.031851 95.690699
104: 1.585067 97.275766
105: 1.096878 98.372644
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
105. That's what we'll get. 105 points. And finish a freak 3rd. And lose to Luton in the play off final.
109 isn't guaranteed 2nd place yet. 2 in 10,000,000,000 chance :cool:
 

vcmazz

Well-known member
Joined
20 Apr 2009
Messages
16,887
Reaction score
1,211
Location
Isle of Red & Wight
109 isn't guaranteed 2nd place yet. 2 in 10,000,000,000 chance :cool:
But it says....

Points Required for Brentford to Absolutely Guarantee Promotion (100% certain):
106

???
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
But it says....

Points Required for Brentford to Absolutely Guarantee Promotion (100% certain):
106

???
Yes you are correct.

If we get 106 points then we are promoted. Absolutely Certain
However if some other team gets 106 points then there is a 1 in 5 billion chance that they won't be :) Probably on goal difference as we will finish above them!
 

vcmazz

Well-known member
Joined
20 Apr 2009
Messages
16,887
Reaction score
1,211
Location
Isle of Red & Wight
Yes you are correct.

If we get 106 points then we are promoted. Absolutely Certain
However if some other team gets 106 points then there is a 1 in 5 billion chance that they won't be :) Probably on goal difference as we will finish above them!
Yes. I expect that's what will happen. Best of luck to them against Luton in the play offs. :sorted:
 

Vid

Active member
Joined
30 Sep 2013
Messages
4,360
Reaction score
865
Location
*
More importantly will QPHa be relegated ?
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
More importantly will QPHa be relegated ?
Good question but unlikely I reckon

0.01% chance of auto promotion and still a 5.01% of Top Six.

Sadly just a 3.94% chance of relegation. (However SWFC's 6 points deduction not taken into account)
 
Last edited:
  • Sad
Reactions: Vid

Jay Bee

Active member
Joined
24 Jan 2001
Messages
7,879
Reaction score
214
Location
London
Minimum Likely Number of Points to Win Auto Promotion (Any Team):
91: 58.06%
Thanks for this. So are you saying 91 points for Brentford is > 50% chance of top 2, but 90 points is less than 50% chance as it stands? or is there a different definition of likely?
The likely number of points needed for promotion is useful for various other predictions and simulations
 

liverbee

Active member
Joined
17 May 2006
Messages
5,136
Reaction score
332
Location
Liverpool at present
I find this interesting as an odds setting exercise. I think Reading and Watford could be value bets. Then again, I actually think 111 points can still be considered.
 

hypa123

hypa123
Joined
29 Jul 2006
Messages
3,802
Reaction score
190
Location
Paris
Do these computations take into account the goal difference factor? For the time being our GD is in effect the equivalent of a half-point advantage over other teams. But one could envisage a scenario in which we end up level on points with, for example, Swansea, behind Norwich, and due to a couple of massive wins by them and a couple of complete collapses by our defence as a result of injuries, they shade it into second place.

Perish the thought.
 

Edmundo

Whinging pom
Joined
5 Apr 2000
Messages
36,832
Reaction score
222
Location
Alexandria, NSW, Australia
Only one team has ever got more than 89 points at this level and failed to be promoted. I don’t believe we need that many but I believe we will get at least that many.
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
Thanks for this. So are you saying 91 points for Brentford is > 50% chance of top 2, but 90 points is less than 50% chance as it stands? or is there a different definition of likely?
The likely number of points needed for promotion is useful for various other predictions and simulations
This is the full definition of that stat:

In all 10 billion simulations 91 points was the lowest points total to secure second place over 50% of the time.
 

jbee

Active member
Joined
22 Oct 2003
Messages
4,067
Reaction score
817
Location
Ealing
If the supercomputer says that more than half the time, 90 points won’t win you automatic promotion, then it needs some fine-tuning.
I dunno, this season is a bit different with the top three accumulating a lot of points already.
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
If the supercomputer says that more than half the time, 90 points won’t win you automatic promotion, then it needs some fine-tuning.
90 points is 49.5%
 

Jay Bee

Active member
Joined
24 Jan 2001
Messages
7,879
Reaction score
214
Location
London
This is the full definition of that stat:

In all 10 billion simulations 91 points was the lowest points total to secure second place over 50% of the time.
If the supercomputer says that more than half the time, 90 points won’t win you automatic promotion, then it needs some fine-tuning.
Thanks nana that's what I thought you meant.

Edmundo's thinking was the same reason why I asked to clarify. 91 points is a higher target than I'd hoped to be setting. In reality we only get one outcome and the actual number needed could be a lot less (or more!) of course.
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
Thanks nana that's what I thought you meant.

Edmundo's thinking was the same reason why I asked to clarify. 91 points is a higher target than I'd hoped to be setting. In reality we only get one outcome and the actual number needed could be a lot less (or more!) of course.
I suspect it's a point higher than expected as there are 3 teams breaking away. However a few more dropped points and it looks like 90% will creep over the 50% threshold (and with rounding it already does)
 

GlasgowBee

Knows **** all about anything
Joined
12 Apr 2000
Messages
5,962
Reaction score
168
Location
Gartham Lock (People's Republic of)
If the supercomputer says that more than half the time, 90 points won’t win you automatic promotion, then it needs some fine-tuning.
Are you in danger of torturing the data till it confesses.

Though I must throw my thinking in the ring and say a Bayesian approach asks how probable the data fits the hypothesis not vice versa :sorted: 🐝
 
OP
Banana

Banana

Very, very seldomly incorrect
Joined
7 Apr 2000
Messages
73,917
Reaction score
4,411
Location
London
After Barnsley (H) L 0-2

Note: I have updated the methodology to ignore any home advantage (as there is little to none this season).


Chances of Automatic Promotion
Brentford: 68.8% (was 82.5%)
Swansea: 68.4% (68.4%)
Norwich: 47.2% (40.1%)
Watford 13.0% (4.14%)
Reading 1.1% (2.92%)
Bournemouth: 1.3% (1.3%)
all others < 0.05% (1%)

Our chances have taken a large knock here, in reality I suspect the previous number was way overstated due to our 21 match unbeaten run.


Chances of Top Six Finish
Brentford: 99.8% (99.9%)
Swansea: 99.6% (99.5%)
Norwich: 99.3% (98.9%)
Watford: 92.9% (75.4%)
Reading: 58.7% (68.0%)
Bournemouth: 59.1% (53.0%)
Barnsley: 20.4% (?)
Blackburn: 17.2% (30.5%)
Cardiff: 16.8% (10.4%)
Middlesboro: 8.2% (18.8%)
Millwall: 7.2% (< 6%)
Stoke: 5.2% (22.3%)
all others < 5%

Brentford Final Position
1st: 37.8% (53.5%)
2nd: 31.0% (28.9%)
3rd: 21.0% (13.4%)
4th: 7.8% (3.0%)
5th: 1.6% (0.8%)
6th: 0.5% (0.2%)

Lowest Possible Finish:
17th: 0.00001%

BFC Points at End of Season with Promotion Probability:
Example, 62.7% chance of getting at least 90 points. If we get exactly 90 points then we would stand a 60.8% chance of being promoted.

87: 78.6% => 34.8% chance of promotion
88: 74.1% => 43.4% chance of promotion
89: 69.1% => 52.1% chance of promotion
90: 62.7% => 60.8% chance of promotion
91: 57.9% => 68.9% chance of promotion
92: 51.8% => 76.1% chance of promotion
93: 45.5% => 82.3% chance of promotion
94: 39.2% => 87.4% chance of promotion
95: 33.0% => 91.3% chance of promotion
96: 27.2% => 94.4% chance of promotion


Number of Points to Win Championship (Any Team):
95: 33.2%
96: 41.8% (51.4%)
97: 50.7%
98: 59.8%
99: 68.1%
100: 76.0%
101: 82.5%

Minimum Likely Number of Points to Win Auto Promotion (Any Team):
89: 24.6%
90: 32.8%
91: 41.9% (58.1%)
92: 51.5%
93: 60.9%
94: 69.8%
95: 77.7%
96: 84.4%
 
Last edited:

badgerbee

Mafeking Avenue........gets you there!!!!
Joined
28 Jan 2008
Messages
15,465
Reaction score
1,475
Location
Langport, Somerset
I blame the firing up of the Supercomputer for our performance today!!!

Shut it down!!!
Shut it down!!!
Shut it down!!! 😁
 

Nada Bee

Well-known member
Joined
10 Aug 2001
Messages
18,596
Reaction score
1,007
Location
Aveley
Should be 69.8% auto or there is a typo in the positions bit...
 

Nada Bee

Well-known member
Joined
10 Aug 2001
Messages
18,596
Reaction score
1,007
Location
Aveley
Chances of Automatic Promotion
Brentford: 68.8% (was 82.5%)

Brentford Final Position
1st: 38.8% (53.5%)
2nd: 31.0% (28.9%)
 

GABS

Active member
Joined
17 Apr 2000
Messages
7,324
Reaction score
276
I'm coming back to this thread in 2 months time and not a moment before! Bye 👋🏻😂
 

badgerbee

Mafeking Avenue........gets you there!!!!
Joined
28 Jan 2008
Messages
15,465
Reaction score
1,475
Location
Langport, Somerset
This thread is as much to blame as the "Where were you when we went top?" one.....
 

Invipai

Active member
Joined
29 Jul 2011
Messages
7,079
Reaction score
557
Location
Ealing, London
FiveThirtyEight still have us at 67% for promotion, although they've dropped us from being favourites now.

They think we'll finish on 86, and Swansea on 83.

QPR now have a 7% chance of making the playoffs according to that! Was 2% a couple of games ago.
 

Bangor Bee

Bangor Bee
Joined
25 Mar 2002
Messages
2,045
Reaction score
110
Location
Menai Bridge, Anglesey
All this talk about what computers predict...do they take into account psychological factors and mental strength? The moment I saw the 82% chance of promotion I thought oh dear...haven't we been here before? Supporters of other teams are now constantly referring to us as bottlers, and some of the panicky defending in the second half suggested there's fragility in the mental department and a tendency to panic under pressure.... I mean, Rico, for heaven's sake do anything except head the ball back across the box straight to an opposing forward. Sort of thing that gets taught to 8 year olds. Plus we lack the ruthless streak that other teams have. If ever there was a moment that called for a cynical foul it was when Willock broke forward before the first goal. QPR defenders would have hacked our forward down in the same situation without a doubt, but we put in powderpuff challenges. The players and management need to sit down and have a long talk today, because we should not have lost that game.
 

Scratchy

And it's goodbye......from them!
Joined
18 Apr 2000
Messages
1,537
Reaction score
12
Location
Hanwell,London
Perhaps it's time to switch off the Supercomputer for a while eh?
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top Bottom