Final Day Permutations and Combinations

[Banana]

First of all we HAVE to win, otherwise we will not make the play-offs.

Combination 1:

Brentford WIN; and
Derby LOSE; and
Wolves do not win by more than 4 goals​

Combination 2:

Brentford win margin minus Ipswich lose margin is one goals or more

e.g. Brentford win by more than two goals AND Ipswich LOSE by one goal
e.g. Brentford win by more than three goals AND Ipswich LOSE by two goals
​

PLUS Wolves do not win by more than 4 goals​

Under no circumstances can we qualify for the playoffs IF

Derby get at least a draw AND
Ipswich get at least a draw
​

 

[hypa123]

In short, either Ipswich or Derby have to lose, and if it's Ipswich there has to be a two-goal margin in either our game or theirs. A long shot, but you never know.

Pity about the last 10 minutes in yesterday's Nottingham Forest and Millwall games.

 

[clactonbee]

Two points thrown away against Bolton the reason we are in this position. Been a great season but could have been even better.

 

[Gazza Bee]

Two points thrown away against Bolton the reason we are in this position. Been a great season but could have been even better.

I'd suggest Derbys 92nd minute equaliser was more vital but all teams will point to moments which have cost them points this season - what will be will be

 

[JBN]

They were both dopey draws which shouldn't have happened.

We've missed too many opportunities in front of goal and made a few too many defensive mistakes.

 

[Doovster]

I'm praying Jordan has a great day for Blackburn!

 

[ruislip bee]

In short, either Ipswich or Derby have to lose, and if it's Ipswich there has to be a two-goal margin in either our game or theirs. A long shot, but you never know.

Pity about the last 10 minutes in yesterday's Nottingham Forest and Millwall games.

Can't believe Long will play----

 

[JBN]

In short, either Ipswich or Derby have to lose, and if it's Ipswich there has to be a two-goal margin in either our game or theirs. A long shot, but you never know.

Pity about the last 10 minutes in yesterday's Nottingham Forest and Millwall games.

Thats the only permutation for me. We win, they lose and Wolves don't win by too many..

 

[vcmazz]

Two points thrown away against Bolton the reason we are in this position. Been a great season but could have been even better.

You have a point. But on the other hand we've also had a few last gasp results and a few lucky points to balance that. Swings and roundabouts. :shrug:

 

[GlasgowBee]

I'd suggest Derbys 92nd minute equaliser was more vital but all teams will point to moments which have cost them points this season - what will be will be

And Dallas secured 3 points with the winner in the 4th minute of injury at GP, pros and cons throughout the season

 

[AB]

It's very simple, we've just got to go out and beat Wigan as heavily as possible. If the team goes out to do anything else, we miss out for sure. Then just hope for Ipswich and Derby to lose.

I can imagine a lot of people on Saturday at GP will be checking their phones/radios and that there'll be cheers for every Blackburn and Reading goal.

 

[Sheerwater Bee]

You have a point. But on the other hand we've also had a few last gasp results and a few lucky points to balance that. Swings and roundabouts. :shrug:

The difference is in the vast majority of games where we've gain a point or three with later goals we have been the better team by a country mile. Teams like Derby, Middlesborough, Watford have taken points off us when we've been the better team.

This has been the greatest season and the best football I've witnessed at GP for 43 years. However, I'll be devastated if we don't make the play offs as it will be a massively missed opportunity.

 

[sonofabee]

The difference is in the vast majority of games where we've gain a point or three with later goals we have been the better team by a country mile. Teams like Derby, Middlesborough, Watford have taken points off us when we've been the better team.

This has been the greatest season and the best football I've witnessed at GP for 43 years. However, I'll be devastated if we don't make the play offs as it will be a massively missed opportunity.

 

[halibutbee64]

I have said on another thread that I don't think it will be a nervous day as we will beat Wigan 2-0 and our fate is out of our hands.
There is a scenario however that I am thinking about which does make me nervous.
Ipswich are losing at Blackburn by the odd goal and we are two goals to the good against Wigan with minutes to go. Do we see out the game like the new Brentford and Ipswich play ball, or will it be Brentford Innit and we let in a 94th minute goal?
Alnother scenario is that we are only beating Wigan by 1-0 and we get a 94th minute penalty and ...........................................................

 

[badgerbee]

First of all we HAVE to win, otherwise we will not make the play-offs.

Combination 1:

Brentford WIN; and
Derby LOSE; and
Wolves do not win by more than 4 goals​

Combination 2:

Brentford win margin minus Ipswich lose margin is one goals or more

e.g. Brentford win by more than two goals AND Ipswich LOSE by one goal
e.g. Brentford win by more than three goals AND Ipswich LOSE by two goals
​

PLUS Wolves do not win by more than 4 goals​

Under no circumstances can we qualify for the playoffs IF

Derby get at least a draw AND
Ipswich get at least a draw
​

'Nana, sorry to be pedantic but I need to make sure in my own mind before Saturday of what we need........ so a couple of slight tweaks to your combinations/permutations by my reckoning for the Ipswich scenario...........

Brentford win margin minus Ipswich lose margin MUST see a swing of 3 goals (they are currently + 3 GD better than us........)

Brentford win (by TWO or more) AND Ipswich LOSE by ONE goal.
Brentford win (by ONE or more) AND Ipswich LOSE by TWO goals.

i.e. We win 2-0, Ipswich lose 1-0, gives us both a GD of +18, we get into Play-Offs on Goals Scored
or
We win 1-0, Ipswich lose 2-0, gives us both a GD of +17, we get into Play-Offs on Goals Scored

(Assuming, as you say, Wolves don't go and do something stupid like making up 6 goals on us.........)

 

[kevalutonbee]

Will there be an event like last year. We've done our bit, team in dressing room radio on and a voice says goal at Ewood or Ipro, few moments silence as the goal is described followed by celebrations as the goal scored late on elsewhere secures our place in the play offs

 

[hanworthbee]

What if we win 1-0 and Ipswich lose 8-6 as then we have equal points, equal goal diff, equal goals and equal goals against?

 

[kempy]

Can someone find out which hotel the Ipswich players will be staying in on Friday night and I'll go set off the fire alarms on the hour every hour from about midnight?

 

[badgerbee]

Can someone find out which hotel the Ipswich players will be staying in on Friday night and I'll go set off the fire alarms on the hour every hour from about midnight?

That's a long way from Shepperton to Blackburn!!!!

 

[PLE]

What if we win 1-0 and Ipswich lose 8-6 as then we have equal points, equal goal diff, equal goals and equal goals against?

Alphabetical simple

 

[No_sting_Bee]

Can someone find out which hotel the Ipswich players will be staying in on Friday night and I'll go set off the fire alarms on the hour every hour from about midnight?

mysterious food poisoning?

 

[hobbsy]

Alphabetical simple

I thought it was a playoff but actually, it's head to head so they win. :sad:

9.2 If two or more Clubs have the same number of points, goal difference and goals scored the highest placed Club shall be determined by the respective League records against each other, taking into account in order of precedence, points gained, goal difference and goals scored. If the above procedures do not separate the Clubs, then the Clubs concerned shall play off a deciding League Match or Matches under arrangements approved by the Board on a neutral ground.


Read more at http://www.football-league.co.uk/global/section3.aspx#ISc4bwHFjIlPzFI0.99

 

[aawharris]

mysterious food poisoning?

Nah, that only works in the Premiershite

 

[NHBrentford]

Just to clarify..

In the scenario where we win by 1 and Ipswich lose by 2, Wolves would have to win by 6 to go above us, not 4.

If we win by 2 and Ipswich lose by 1, Wolves would have to win by 7.

 

[Markybee]

Ipswich's winner yesterday

 

[alikat]

Under no circumstances can we qualify for the playoffs IF

Derby get at least a draw AND
Ipswich get at least a draw
​

Not totally true. If Derby draw and we beat Wigan by 16 goals (or more should Derby score at least 6 goals), then we go above Derby.

HTH.

 

[tobymaxtonesmith]

The Derby result was unfortunate, but a draw at Pride Park is hardly a bad result. We've thrown it away at home with eight stupid goals conceded against four pretty average teams.

 

[Adam]

First of all we HAVE to win, otherwise we will not make the play-offs.

Combination 1:

Brentford WIN; and
Derby LOSE; and
Wolves do not win by more than 4 goals​

Combination 2:

Brentford win margin minus Ipswich lose margin is one goals or more

e.g. Brentford win by more than two goals AND Ipswich LOSE by one goal
e.g. Brentford win by more than three goals AND Ipswich LOSE by two goals
​

PLUS Wolves do not win by more than 4 goals​

Under no circumstances can we qualify for the playoffs IF

Derby get at least a draw AND
Ipswich get at least a draw
​

If Wolves won by 5 goals in either scenario/combination we would still go up (unless their game finished 12-7). They would realistically need win by 6 goals minimum.

 

[Wise old Bee]

I think there'll be a point on Saturday when we are within a goal of the POs. At least MW will go for it, can you imagine a Rosler side chasing a game? We need to score first to put pressure on Ipswich then it could be stick or twist for them.

 

[GuyBee]

'Nana, sorry to be pedantic but I need to make sure in my own mind before Saturday of what we need........ so a couple of slight tweaks to your combinations/permutations by my reckoning for the Ipswich scenario...........

Brentford win margin minus Ipswich lose margin MUST see a swing of 3 goals (they are currently + 3 GD better than us........)

Brentford win (by TWO or more) AND Ipswich LOSE by ONE goal.
Brentford win (by ONE or more) AND Ipswich LOSE by TWO goals.

i.e. We win 2-0, Ipswich lose 1-0, gives us both a GD of +18, we get into Play-Offs on Goals Scored
or
We win 1-0, Ipswich lose 2-0, gives us both a GD of +17, we get into Play-Offs on Goals Scored

(Assuming, as you say, Wolves don't go and do something stupid like making up 6 goals on us.........)

To put it simply, Ipswich have to lose, we have to win and one of the games has to have a goal margin of at least 2

 

[badgerbee]

To put it simply, Ipswich have to lose, we have to win and one of the games has to have a goal margin of at least 2

Agreed.
Was just trying to explain that some of Nana's logic wasn't quite right.......

 

[Letchbee]

The Derby result was unfortunate, but a draw at Pride Park is hardly a bad result. We've thrown it away at home with eight stupid goals conceded against four pretty average teams.

Oh please change the tune, that is water under the bridge!

 

[JTofBFC]

There is only one combination that matters . We need to ensure we win by 2 goals and hope for the best at Ewood Park .

 

[badgerbee]

There is only one combination that matters . We need to ensure we win by 2 goals and hope for the best at Ewood Park .

Errr, no....... as has been said above a few times already.....a 1 goal win would be ok for us if either Derby lose or Ipswich lose by 2......

 

[hanworthbee]

Some nerves setting in at Portman road http://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/341415/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-we-will-cock-it-up-at-blackburn/#36

 

[johnnym]

Alphabetical simple

Hull Tigers...Aardvark Bees job done!!!!

 

[cheshirebee]

Hoping for Rovrum and Reading to draw Tues night.

It puts Wigan down but leaves Millwall with something to play for at Wolves,

 

[JCMcBee]

Hoping for Rovrum and Reading to draw Tues night.

It puts Wigan down but leaves Millwall with something to play for at Wolves,

i'm with you mate......wigan with nothing to play for......we smash into them...... blackburns front two smash into a less than convincing ipswich defence.....and GP goes:banana::banana::banana:'s

 

[seanrs]

What will be will be but two possible outcomes wiould leave me gutted:

1. Derby and/or Ipswich lose and we fail to beat Wigan

2. Ipswich to lose by one goal and us to win by one goal

 

[StamfordBee]

Potentially, Ipswich and Derby could both blow out in favour of us and the Wolves

 

[JasonBee]

Teams above us both know a draw is enough and this might work in our favour if they play deep and play for the draw, Derby are nothing special and Ipswich are up against a useful Blackburn attack.
There is still hope as long as we don't muck it up against a team who we don't have a great record against.

 

[grutter]

Wow - 40 replies on this thread (make that 41 now, doh!). Talk about over complicating things. Win by 2 - hope for the best.

 

[Manchester_Bee]

What if we win 1-0 and Ipswich lose 8-6 as then we have equal points, equal goal diff, equal goals and equal goals against?

Goes to games won I think

 

[hobbsy]

Goes to games won I think

See post 22

 

[teesbee]

Might be a good time for everyone on Twitter to send pleading messages to Jordan Rhodes ...

 

[Billy Hunt]

The Derby result was unfortunate, but a draw at Pride Park is hardly a bad result. We've thrown it away at home with eight stupid goals conceded against four pretty average teams.

...and if only Cadette's shot at Anfield in the first-half had hit a divot... :yawn: Keep on over-analysing, gents. If it makes you happy... :yawn:

 

[Billy Hunt]

Might be a good time for everyone on Twitter to send pleading messages to Jordan Rhodes ...

You feel the need to embarrass yourself and our club? :scratch:

 

[SH]

We'll stuff Wigan at home, probably scoring 4 or 5. Ditto, Derby will stuff Millwall. $64,000 question is whether Rhodes and Gestede can keep up their recent scoring for Rovers: Rhodes has scored in 3 of their last 4 and Gestede has scored 5 in the last 3. If either of those could get an early goal, it'll be fun and games

 

[SH]

Der, I meant Derby will stuff Reading

 

[absenteebee]

It's always ifs and buts...

What if the team hadn't turned up at Craven Cottage and we didn't win 4-1? Saturday would mean nothing and we'd not have a memory of one of the top games ever.

Its's always ifs and buts...