Good Fortune

[Downbeat Bee]

Some good fortune today. Got me wondering what have been some of the best examples of good fortune we've had. Can't think of many.

Willock's phantom penalty looms largest in my mind.

 

[Lionel Bart-At]

Should be included in the list of stats reported in the papers. Goals, shots, shots on target, possession, pass completion, moments of good fortune.

 

[Humblebee]

Makes up for some of our bad luck in the past.

 

[Brentford Bob]

I’m not sure what was fortunate about Thomas being so much more astute that Fat Frank?

 

[Rob-BEE]

I think good luck tends to get overlooked in favour of bad luck by every set of fans. Just the way it is. In general, I'm a firm believer that it evens out, after all, we can't ALL be on the wrong side of decisions or poor luck can we?!

Most of the time it's a question of creating situations that can bring you "luck" and then making the most of it when it happens. Yesterday was a case in point.

 

[BFC1997]

don’t think we got fortunate really. Both red cards were red cards 100%.

Mykolenko also went very close to crossing the line into “headbutt” territory on Toney, so we could have been playing against 8 men at the end.

Everton also got a penalty and a number of very soft free kicks for “fouls” on Richarlison.

I would say that Ajer’s shirt pull on Richarlison prior to the Branthwaite red looked bad at the time - and could have been a pen - but watching back, they had a hold of each other and VAR didn’t think it was even worth looking at.

 

[BFC1997]

I think good luck tends to get overlooked in favour of bad luck by every set of fans. Just the way it is. In general, I'm a firm believer that it evens out, after all, we can't ALL be on the wrong side of decisions or poor luck can we?!

Most of the time it's a question of creating situations that can bring you "luck" and then making the most of it when it happens. Yesterday was a case in point.

It evens out, you say. But over what period of time? A season? 10 seasons?

I reckon you can be “net lucky/unlucky” in a significant way across a game or even across an entire season for sure.

Thought we were neither yesterday though.

 

[Infatuated Bees Alter Ego]

Can you expand on the 'good fortune' from yesterday ?

 

[Rob-BEE]

Can you expand on the 'good fortune' from yesterday ?

Personally I think it's good fortune when an opponent gets himself sent off so early in the game, don't you?

 

[beeeehive]

Take away all the wonder strikes against us and injuries during the winter. We should be in Europe!

 

[Fat Bee Slim]

I actually think we've had a reasonable amount of good fortune this season. Yesterday, is Oliver had given a pen for the shirt tug by Ajer, I don't think var would've overturned it as a clear and obvious error. In that case we'd likely be 2-0 down, 11v11, in a cauldron of noise.

Earlier this season, Joelinton getting into a great position to put Newcastle 4-3 up in the away game with only a few minutes left, only to slip over.

Another one is the Watford miss in injury time at their place, Lozer had pretty much an open goal but missed. Seconds later we win a free kick, Christian put it on Pontus's head, and a 1-2 is turned into a 2-1!

 

[Infatuated Bees Alter Ego]

Personally I think it's good fortune when an opponent gets himself sent off so early in the game, don't you?

I think we've been fortunate to have played some teams this season, when the opposing side had key players out. Also fortunate to have played some teams, at certain times. The opposing teams eyeing up other games down the line and playing teams 2 days after they've already played a game, but we've had to deal with all that aswell.
The bit about them having 2 players sent off yesterday. Fortunate ? Maybe ...
Both Leeds and Everton have had players sent off recently. I put a lot of that down to the way the Managers, prime their players for the games. The importance etc. Its not controlled urgency. Its reckless. No patience. Fine line between all guns blazing, must win games and it being controlled, which both Everton and Leeds are not.

 

[Rob-BEE]

I think we've been fortunate to have played some teams this season, when the opposing side had key players out. Also fortunate to have played some teams, at certain times. The opposing teams eyeing up other games down the line and playing teams 2 days after they've already played a game, but we've had to deal with all that aswell.
The bit about them having 2 players sent off yesterday. Fortunate ? Maybe ...
Both Leeds and Everton have had players sent off recently. I put a lot of that down to the way the Managers, prime their players for the games. The importance etc. Its not controlled urgency. Its reckless. No patience. Fine line between all guns blazing, must win games and it being controlled, which both Everton and Leeds are not.

To clarify, I think we are fortunate beneficiaries if an opponent does something stupid to get himself sent off, especially with so much of the game still to play. Just like when we played Newcastle, they were lucky that JDS got himself sent off!

 

[mhead bee]

don’t think we got fortunate really. Both red cards were red cards 100%.

Mykolenko also went very close to crossing the line into “headbutt” territory on Toney, so we could have been playing against 8 men at the end.

Everton also got a penalty and a number of very soft free kicks for “fouls” on Richarlison.

I would say that Ajer’s shirt pull on Richarlison prior to the Branthwaite red looked bad at the time - and could have been a pen - but watching back, they had a hold of each other and VAR didn’t think it was even worth looking at.

Considering the Everton love fest I thought the MOTD pundits pretty much agreed with every decision including the penalty being a foul and no more as Richarlison threw himself down, was nowhere near the ball and there was less than minimal contact anyway.

Personally I think it's good fortune when an opponent gets himself sent off so early in the game, don't you?

Probably better fortune when your Centre Forward is allowed to go through on goal and score, the resulting free kick from a pro foul rarely goes in. Helped us in the long run but they committed the foul not lady luck.

 

[mhead bee]

To clarify, I think we are fortunate beneficiaries if an opponent does something stupid to get himself sent off, especially with so much of the game still to play. Just like when we played Newcastle, they were lucky that JDS got himself sent off!

I see what you mean, but a bloke doing a professional foul doesn't really warrant a thread titled "good fortune" does it, like something really abnormal has happened (just saying)

 

[Rob-BEE]

Probably better fortune when your Centre Forward is allowed to go through on goal and score, the resulting free kick from a pro foul rarely goes in. Helped us in the long run but they committed the foul not lady luck.

I think Toney has less than 10% chance of scoring from there if he's not taken down. Racing clear of defenders and scoring 1 on 1s isn't exactly his forte! Plus, I think yesterday Everton were massively on top. Even in the unlikely event he did equalise I'd still have said Everton were favourites to win. The red card completely changed the game in our favour.

I'd also add, if this was in, say, the 80th minute it's a different equation. But with 70 mins left, I'd take playing against 10 men every time.

 

[Rob-BEE]

I see what you mean, but a bloke doing a professional foul doesn't really warrant a thread titled "good fortune" does it, like something really abnormal has happened (just saying)

I think we just have different interpretations of "good fortune"...!

 

[BerksBee]

Personally I think it's good fortune when an opponent gets himself sent off so early in the game, don't you?

Erm...

Yes, no and not necessarily!

Let's look at that red card incident from a different perspective. Would it have been good or bad fortune for that foul not to have been committed, no red card given and for Toney to be clear 1 on 1 with the keeper and scores, levelling the score up? Levelling the scores up at that point in the game would (in my opinion) have had just as much impact on the game as the red card did. We will never know. If he doesn't score, of course the red card gives us an advantage for the rest of the game.

However, I don't think Everton going down to 10 men gave us as much of an advantage as a lot of people are making out. Being in the lead they were always (at some point) going to go into defensive mode, maintain defensive shape and defend that lead. That red card simply meant they did it earlier rather than later because they were never going to maintain the kind of intensity they were showing in the first 10 or 15 minutes over the course of 90.

It was only a matter of time before we settled down, regained our compsure, started dominating posession, being patient and pushing and probing their defence for openings. The second half pretty much panned out in exactly the way I expected it to. Did the red card help in that? Of course it did, but it would have happened anyway red card or not.

I predicted we would score 3 goals before the game, I just didn't think they would score 2.

 

[Invipai]

I think there's a difference between good fortune, and and correct decisions going your way. The 'luck evens itself out' is primarily in relation to fouls not given, reds given for light offences, offsides given incorrectly etc. That won't affect us as much in a VAR world, so 'luck' will be a lot tighter between teams.

Could MBS have received a second yellow for the pen....yes. But I didn't think it warranted one at all on first viewing. A pen is a very strong punishment for a pull though, so no reason a yellow should be given as well awarding a 7.8 goal chance. There were other defenders as well around.

I don't believe in 'luck evens itself out' though, I just think it's not that simple. Some teams will have better luck, some worse overall. You're not going to get a lucky decision next week because you had a bad one this.

 

[Rob-BEE]

Erm...

Yes, no and not necessarily!

Let's look at that red card incident from a different perspective. Would it have been good or bad fortune for that foul not to have been committed, no red card given and for Toney to be clear 1 on 1 with the keeper and scores, levelling the score up? Levelling the scores up at that point in the game would (in my opinion) have had just as much impact on the game as the red card did. We will never know. If he doesn't score, of course the red card gives us an advantage for the rest of the game.

However, I don't think Everton going down to 10 men gave us as much of an advantage as a lot of people are making out. Being in the lead they were always (at some point) going to go into defensive mode, maintain defensive shape and defend that lead. That red card simply meant they did it earlier rather than later because they were never going to maintain the kind of intensity they were showing in the first 10 or 15 minutes over the course of 90.

It was only a matter of time before we settled down, regained our compsure, started dominating posession, being patient and pushing and probing their defence for openings. The second half pretty much panned out in exactly the way I expected it to. Did the red card help in that? Of course it did, but it would have happened anyway red card or not.

I predicted we would score 3 goals before the game, I just didn't think they would score 2.

I would agree with some of that, certainly the fact that the pattern of the game may have naturally shifted towards Everton sitting back. Of course, we'll never know what would have happened 11 v 11.

Regarding the incident itself, you're making a lot of assumptions there. I can't think of one single occasion where Toney has out paced a defender to score a 1v1. He had an awful lot still to do, and when you watch it back, the ball was bouncing high in the air so he'd not only need to out run and hold off the defender but also bring the ball down and set himself to shoot. For me it was just a rank bad decision to bring him down. Contrast, say, with Mepham in the PO semi, where Mbeumo was clear through with the ball at his feet and only the keeper to beat.

 

[BerksBee]

For me it was just a rank bad decision to bring him down.

It was a terrible decision, made by a very inexperienced defender, but we've seen defenders get away with those before.

Am I the only one who thinks he got shoved in the back? Because I've seen very little reference to that.

 

[rogercross]

I would agree with some of that, certainly the fact that the pattern of the game may have naturally shifted towards Everton sitting back. Of course, we'll never know what would have happened 11 v 11.

Regarding the incident itself, you're making a lot of assumptions there. I can't think of one single occasion where Toney has out paced a defender to score a 1v1. He had an awful lot still to do, and when you watch it back, the ball was bouncing high in the air so he'd not only need to out run and hold off the defender but also bring the ball down and set himself to shoot. For me it was just a rank bad decision to bring him down. Contrast, say, with Mepham in the PO semi, where Mbeumo was clear through with the ball at his feet and only the keeper to beat.

Ivan scored a very similar goal from a long ‘punt’ away to Forest when we last took our customary six points off them albeit that was first time on the volley ?

 

[8corner]

Personally I think it's good fortune when an opponent gets himself sent off so early in the game, don't you?

No, I don't personally. Otherwise everything becomes fortunate or unfortunate - e.g. it was fortunate that Everton didn't have anyone on the line to clear Wissa's header, it was unfortunate that the ref gave them a really soft penalty, etc. etc.
The opponent being sent-off "so early" resulted from a wonderful pass, Toney getting on the end of it, a bit of inexperience from the Everton defender and the ref correctly applying the rules. Neither fortunate nor unfortunate.

 

[Indian Bee]

Good fortune bad fortune tends to even itself out at the end of the season. We were very unfortunate when Jensen and Rico clashed heads against Wolves at home and both has to go off. We were on top and lost that game.

 

[Rob-BEE]

No, I don't personally. Otherwise everything becomes fortunate or unfortunate - e.g. it was fortunate that Everton didn't have anyone on the line to clear Wissa's header, it was unfortunate that the ref gave them a really soft penalty, etc. etc.
The opponent being sent-off "so early" resulted from a wonderful pass, Toney getting on the end of it, a bit of inexperience from the Everton defender and the ref correctly applying the rules. Neither fortunate nor unfortunate.

I think when it's a single, rare, event that influences the game it can be considered fortunate that we benefitted from it. It doesn't have to mean that it was a dodgy decision. Nor does it mean that we didnt deserve to win.

 

[BerksBee]

I think when it's a single, rare, event that influences the game it can be considered fortunate that we benefitted from it.

Yes, it's hard not to agree with that.

But!

There's also a prevailing view that playing against 10 men can be more difficult than playing against 11, particularly when the defensive side of the 10 men is good and well organised. Fortunately, Everton's defence was neither of those two things.

 

[jlove]

I've read a lot of comments from pundits and fans of other clubs and I just think we're fortunate to have stolen a place in the Premier League ...

 

[BudleighBee]

We have had both good and bad fortune this season. We were unfortunate that none of our efforts against Spurs or Chelsea went in and perhaps fortunate with late goals against Watford and West Ham, but all of that is just how games of football go. Players missing open goals is not fortunate, it is what makes some teams better than others and its the same with defensive mistakes, these will always happen. Not getting penalty decisions maybe is down fortune, but they tend to even out over a season and are often marginal anyway. Red cards are not down to fortune. Both of Everton's red cards were for poor challenges, nothing to do with luck and the same goes for Leeds. They play that way because they think it will intimidate others and will get them more points. When it doesn't work, that is not bad luck. I reckon lady luck has smiled on us to the tune of 2-3 points gained this season. Very pleased with that too, we have earned it.

 

[To Bee Someone]

We've been in the same position as Everton ourselves. JDS red card v Newcastle totally changed the complexion of that game but you just get on it. Bad luck, misfortune, naivety or whatever you wish to call it, the season shouldn't be dependent on one game or one incident.
We've earned the privilege of PL safety already, the conspiracy mongers that are Leeds and Everton have not

 

[ManorBee]

The red card for fouling Toney should go down as a brilliant pass and very clever centre forward play. Toney got the flight of the ball spot on and positioned himself to be ahead of the defender who just plain panicked and brought him down. Thomas then played a master stroke second half, withdrawing 2 centre backs and playing 2 midfielder in their positions resulting in total control of the ball. How many other teams would have made those changes. My guess is none as they would have stayed to conservative in their set ups. Fortunate? The game was 15 minutes old. If the game had remained 1-0 my guess is that Everton would have dropped deep and we would have pushed on them. Games changed and no one can second guess whether we would have won anyway. Lampard claiming a penalty their centre forward had hands all over Ager so it could quite easily have been a free kick to the Bee. We deserved that win we were not fortunate

 

[GP200]

Take away all the wonder strikes against us and injuries during the winter. We should be in Europe!

............... hopefully pre season...............

 

[mhead bee]

Good fortune bad fortune tends to even itself out at the end of the season. We were very unfortunate when Jensen and Rico clashed heads against Wolves at home and both has to go off. We were on top and lost that game.

LCFC twice, Chelsea at home and Brighton at home, we couldn’t have had more bad fortune but some would say they were “cleverer” than us with their dark arts.

 

[TadB]

I think we've been fortunate to have played some teams this season, when the opposing side had key players out. Also fortunate to have played some teams, at certain times. The opposing teams eyeing up other games down the line and playing teams 2 days after they've already played a game, but we've had to deal with all that aswell.
The bit about them having 2 players sent off yesterday. Fortunate ? Maybe ...
Both Leeds and Everton have had players sent off recently. I put a lot of that down to the way the Managers, prime their players for the games. The importance etc. Its not controlled urgency. Its reckless. No patience. Fine line between all guns blazing, must win games and it being controlled, which both Everton and Leeds are not.

This season there were many teams who had the Good Fortune to play us when injuries had stripped us bare!

 

[Indian Bee]

LCFC twice, Chelsea at home and Brighton at home, we couldn’t have had more bad fortune but some would say they were “cleverer” than us with their dark arts.

I would add it has been ‘bad fortune’ that we have conceded some absolute wonder goals.

 

[ruislip bee]

I would add it has been ‘bad fortune’ that we have conceded some absolute wonder goals.

Bad fortune because we are in the Premier League and hence playing against players good enough to score wonder goals and keepers who make wonder saves! Brilliant isn't it!

 

[looneytunes]

Bad fortune because we are in the Premier League and hence playing against players good enough to score wonder goals and keepers who make wonder saves! Brilliant isn't it!

Would like to see a few Billy barrs in the premier league as well

 

[Indian Bee]

Bad fortune because we are in the Premier League and hence playing against players good enough to score wonder goals and keepers who make wonder saves! Brilliant isn't it!

Yes but I have seen Rüdiger shoot outside the box many times and always ended up 50 rows back and that Leicester left back will not score the goal he scored against us at their place again.

I would add some of our defensive mistakes we have made this season we could have got away with last season but the PL is ruthless.

 

[mhead bee]

Bad fortune because we are in the Premier League and hence playing against players good enough to score wonder goals and keepers who make wonder saves! Brilliant isn't it!

But we can call it good fortune if one of ours goes in?

 

[BlueJayBee]

Good fortune bad fortune tends to even itself out at the end of the season. We were very unfortunate when Jensen and Rico clashed heads against Wolves at home and both has to go off. We were on top and lost that game.

And, don't forget, that head clash was was followed by the drone fiasco. What are the odds of those 2 things happening again, in a game?

 

[Debut1949]

To clarify, I think we are fortunate beneficiaries if an opponent does something stupid to get himself sent off, especially with so much of the game still to play. Just like when we played Newcastle, they were lucky that JDS got himself sent off!

Although no-one can know what would have happened if the Everton centre back had not been sent off early in the game, the poor way in which he defended the long ball through the middle suggests that he was prone to making further errors giving Brentford many opportunities to score and that it would have been a matter of time before one of those opportunities was taken.