Not Happening Ivan Toney (Various)

Confirmation that a transfer is now dead and the thread will be locked.
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Ivan Toney (Various)

Do we

a) get the highest value possible and sell in Jan, reinvest and and hope it pays off

b) take a significant drop in value in the summer (I think?) and count on him to score the goals to keep us safe.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

c) Plays the rest of the season, helping us to stay up whilst scoring lots of goals. Signs an extension to his contract out of gratitude towards the club, all of which adds another 20 million to his value, for him to move on in the summer.
Problem with that is that if we get relegated his value will not be £20m higher regardless of how many goals he scores so doesn't benefit us really or are you saying the contract extension comes in the summer?
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

c) Plays the rest of the season, helping us to stay up whilst scoring lots of goals. Signs an extension to his contract out of gratitude towards the club, all of which adds another 20 million to his value, for him to move on in the summer.
If he was going to sign a contract extension I'd suggest that would have happened in the days / weeks after his ban was imposed. There was no reason for anyone to wait until the ban expired (we establish that signing a contract is not football related activity) so I think that ship sailed a long time ago unfortunately.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Problem with that is that if we get relegated his value will not be £20m higher regardless of how many goals he scores so doesn't benefit us really or are you saying the contract extension comes in the summer?
We are not getting relegated.

FFS ?
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Just so we can clarify things and prevent this pointless speculation, there is absolutely no chance someone like Ivan will feel obliged to sign a contract with the club out of loyalty, especially as he got himself a new agent a few months ago
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Sell him now, I think, if someone offers what he is worth + January premium
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

I think most of us expect him to go in this window or the next.

It will be a weird window whichever one it happens. This is The Transfer Rumour for this window and without a doubt the highest profile transfer sale we'll have ever been involved in. People will be talking about it constantly in the press and online, not to mention those Arsenal friends you try to ignore.

Sky maintain a rolling transfer news feed page just for Arsenal, so expect rubbish morning noon and night on there until the end of the month Arsenal transfer news and rumours: Ivan Toney, Joao Palhinha, Thomas Partey, Aaron Ramsdale latest

Not sure how to conclude other than probably best not to take anything too seriously.
If he goes I will try and put the emotion to one side and accept the money is massive even for a PL club and we have done it on our own terms.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Can't see him going in Jan .
Agreed. Just cannot see anyone willing to pay what we would accept.

I can, however, foresee an entire month's worth of clickbait speculation linking us with Arsenal, Chelsea and Utd, backed up by zero substance. It's gonna be a long month.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Agreed. Just cannot see anyone willing to pay what we would accept.

I can, however, foresee an entire month's worth of clickbait speculation linking us with Arsenal, Chelsea and Utd, backed up by zero substance. It's gonna be a long month.
Yep won't get resolved either way early doors so it'll be constant speculation until the end of January
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

The model is to not stop a player moving on for the right price, we have to honour that to bring in new talent and satisfy agents future pathways. If we hinder anyone, our trust is broken and the flow of talent ceases. It is an extension of the prisoner dilemma, simple game theory, no such thing as a right decision, just weigh up the odds and play the best hand.

The fact IT has a new agent would indicate a move to be the most probable outcome as they (the agent) will want to maximise their own income (through association with the player).

We need to maximise our outcome too
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

The model is to not stop a player moving on for the right price, we have to honour that to bring in new talent and satisfy agents future pathways. If we hinder anyone, our trust is broken and the flow of talent ceases. It is an extension of the prisoner dilemma, simple game theory, no such thing as a right decision, just weigh up the odds and play the best hand.

The fact IT has a new agent would indicate a move to be the most probable outcome as they (the agent) will want to maximise their own income (through association with the player).

We need to maximise our outcome too
Agreed, but I think he'll only go, if we have a planned target replacement signed.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Agreed, but I think he'll only go, if we have a planned target replacement signed.
His replacement (KS) was signed and is currently injured. Its a brave roll of the dice, is it possible to sign a short term winner and not break the bank, or ride the storm till there are better winds.

Is a short term, in our pay grade, goal scoring machine even out there?
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

For what it's worth I can't see him going to Arsenal in this window. They couldn't afford to buy our keeper outright so they won't be able to buy Ivan. That is of course unless they were saving money for Ivan ready for a Jan swoop.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

I'm sure we have a better replacement lined up?
Are you sure or not? Your words say you’re sure but your question mark says you’re not. Which is it? You’ve cleverly summed up the situation perfectly! [hamsterwheelemoji]
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

It's up to PG , if he has a quality replacement that can come in straight away ( hit the ground running )plus we make a pretty penny i'd say sell now, everyone is happy.
A big IF Toney sign's a new contract we can sell at our leisure .
Ive read Toney going on loan to Arsenal with buy option like Raya ..Fcuk that !
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Right now, without stating the obvious...We really need Toney. I cannot see any obvious replacements that we can sign in January that I'd be confident could help keep us safely up.
If Arsenal offered cash plus Nketiah for example, I'm not sure I would be 100% happy with that as I don't think we'd be looking to spend 35 million on Nketiah otherwise.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Right now, without stating the obvious...We really need Toney. I cannot see any obvious replacements that we can sign in January that I'd be confident could help keep us safely up.
If Arsenal offered cash plus Nketiah for example, I'm not sure I would be 100% happy with that as I don't think we'd be looking to spend 35 million on Nketiah otherwise.
I think they still want to keep Nketiah ,if they want to get rid , why would we want a player that cant score for them .
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

why do we have a new thread?
Because it is Jan transfer window speculation not his player thread
I'm with Bigbee.

Only any point having a new thread if there is some new speculation to report or, god forbid, an actual bid!

A skim of the posts so far would seem to be exactly the same as what's already been done to death on here in the past 6-8 months.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

The model is to not stop a player moving on for the right price, we have to honour that to bring in new talent and satisfy agents future pathways. If we hinder anyone, our trust is broken and the flow of talent ceases. It is an extension of the prisoner dilemma, simple game theory, no such thing as a right decision, just weigh up the odds and play the best hand.

The fact IT has a new agent would indicate a move to be the most probable outcome as they (the agent) will want to maximise their own income (through association with the player).

We need to maximise our outcome too
Subject to a gargantuan offer being made, which I don't anticipate in January, I think on this occasion our model will suggest we retain him. Our odds of relegation have increased considerably in the last few weeks and this will have a significant impact on our willingness to sell.

I don't think choosing to retain him until the summer will break our trust with players/agents etc, more so considering we've paid Ivan circa £1.5M in wages during his 8 month ban!
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

I think they still want to keep Nketiah ,if they want to get rid , why would we want a player that cant score for them .

Exactly, he cannot score for them so would not be confident he'd get us out of this mess and we wouldn't be interested in him otherwise.

Just got to hope we keep hold of Toney till the summer now.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Fulham and Bournemouth both signed strikers that have worked out well.

As long as not another 5'6- 5'8" short arse
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Just so we can clarify things and prevent this pointless speculation, there is absolutely no chance someone like Ivan will feel obliged to sign a contract with the club out of loyalty, especially as he got himself a new agent a few months ago
Why someone like Ivan?
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Do we

a) get the highest value possible and sell in Jan, reinvest and and hope it pays off

b) take a significant drop in value in the summer (I think?) and count on him to score the goals to keep us safe.
B all the way. Premiership safety is paramount plus if IT starts knocking in the goals, your fears of a drop in value will be unfounded.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

B all the way. Premiership safety is paramount plus if IT starts knocking in the goals, your fears of a drop in value will be unfounded.
Goals don't necessarily equal value. I suspect his value will drop, as his contract will be 6 months shorter than it is now.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Goals don't necessarily equal value. I suspect his value will drop, as his contract will be 6 months shorter than it is now.
Yeah there is that. Didn't think about his contract being 6 months shorter. Nevertheless a few man of the match performances plus the goals should still make him a very attractive proposition !!
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

His replacement (KS) was signed and is currently injured. Its a brave roll of the dice, is it possible to sign a short term winner and not break the bank, or ride the storm till there are better winds.

Is a short term, in our pay grade, goal scoring machine even out there?
Too late. Hull City have snapped up Billy Sharp!??
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Not a difficult one, How do you define "Someone" like Ivan?
I assume he means someone who, on the pitch gives his absolute all for the team and club and is a leader and star performer, however, off the pitch (social media and various interviews) has implied or ‘come across’ as someone who’s primary interest is his own ambitions (not commenting on whether that’s right or wrong) and definitely doesn’t feel he ‘owes’ the club, most of what he says indicates more that we ‘owed’ him for getting us up and firing us to a top half finish.

I agree with Wibs assessment that there’s little, to no, chance of IT feeling obligated to sign an extension and will only do so if he (and his new agent) believes It’s in the best interests of IT to do so, the impact on Brentford being of little consequence in his decision.

However, should he remain here until the end of the season I think he’d come back hungry and all that confidence/arrogance/‘prove everyone wrong’ traits that he has would serve us and him well with lots of goals.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Ivan Toney (Various)

I treat the article with a huge dollop of skepticism but FYI: New Brentford contract likely for Ivan Toney, with Arsenal and Chelsea waiting for release clause confirmation

If he did sign a new deal, for a few years or more, with a release clause of £80m as suggested, I'd say fair play to him and that's a pretty reasonable way to say thanks to us in the grand scheme of things.
If they don't know the details of IT's contract by now then they've been talking to the wrong people for years
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

If they don't know the details of IT's contract by now then they've been talking to the wrong people for years
Not sure I follow. Are you suggesting the existing one has a release clause like that or there's been one on the table for ages with a clause like that which hasn't been signed? (or something else)
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Not sure I follow. Are you suggesting the existing one has a release clause like that or there's been one on the table for ages with a clause like that which hasn't been signed? (or something else)
Either or. If Clubs buying don't know whether one exists or not then they are clearly uninterested.
 

Ivan Toney (Various)

Either or. If Clubs buying don't know whether one exists or not then they are clearly uninterested.
Think I understand you now.
Although isn't the article suggesting he's about to put pen to paper on a new deal with a release clause in (whilst that wouldn't exactly make sense to me - unless he really REALLY wants to do right by the club - as footballers who would do this in this situation are few and far between...although there have been some...he says clinging onto that hopefully).
 
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