League One

[TOMOGP]

If this is the wrong forum I apologise

Overall this league must be the most interesting for a number of years.

The top six appear to just slightly be pulling away, however Chesterfield in
8th have 48 points from 34 games but Yeovil in 20th 38 points from 32 games
Normally by this time at least one if not 2 teams are for the drop thankfully it looks like that lot from Milton Keynes however the other three its perm any 3 from 16.

The top 6 have altered many times with what some 5 clubs holding top spot at various times and I would think WE are going to need some 85-87 points to be in the top 2
We have 15 games left (45 points) 9 away & 6 at home at best i cannot see us getting more than 24 points which will give us 81 :sad:

Does anybody remember the 3rd div season when an American (?) poster did a run down forecast which worked pretty well
where is he now

 

[Edmundo]

I think 24 points from 15 games is a very poor return - what makes you think we will do so badly? Certainly our form to date is better than that. I think we will get 30-35 points from our remaining games and that will be hard for two teams to surpass.

 

[Carri Bee Un]

I can't see us ****ing it up at the end this time. It won't happen, can't, no way.

 

[FarnhamBee]

Does anybody remember the 3rd div season when an American (?) poster did a run down forecast which worked pretty well
where is he now

I could resurrect my 'promotion calculator' - was gonna leave it 'til later once the front runners have opened up a bit more of a gap but if there's an interest already :shrug:

 

[Carri Bee Un]

I could resurrect my 'promotion calculator' - was gonna leave it 'til later once the front runners have opened up a bit more of a gap but if there's an interest already :shrug:

 

[Les Beeavinu]

I could resurrect my 'promotion calculator' - was gonna leave it 'til later once the front runners have opened up a bit more of a gap but if there's an interest already :shrug:

Yes please. My desk, first thing in the morning, is fine.

 

[West Ealing Bee]

I agree with much of what you say TOMOGP.

We may well need to get more points than we ever have before to go up but I think we'll get there.

The top 6 are clear, someone is going to have to put together a great run to bridge the gap and the top 6 have, in general, beaten the teams just below and maintained the gap.

If we win at Doncaster next week that probably puts them out of it, only Oldham look like they'll put a run of wins together but I don't think they're good enough unless someone collapses, only Swansea, at the moment, look like doing that.

I also wouldn't count MK out, although I'd like to, they are capable of winning 6 games between now and the end of the year and that will put them very close to survival.

 

[Alex]

Does anybody remember the 3rd div season when an American (?) poster did a run down forecast which worked pretty well
where is he now

Something to do with magic numbers I seem to recall. Was it that long ago? I have had a search but I can't find it so it could well be from Div 3 season which is before this board existed.

 

[bees78]

...you must also take into account how many games the top 6 will play against each other, we have Barnsley(H), Swansea(A), and Colchester(A) to play. Others below (plus Swansea play Colchester in LDV 2 legs);
Southend: Colchester(a), Barnsley(a), and Swansea(a)
Colchester: Barnsley(A), Southend(h), and Bees(h)
Huddersfield: Swansea(a), and Barnsley(h)
Swansea: Huddersfield(h), Barnsley(a), Bees(h) and Southend(h)
Barnsley: Colchester(h), Swansea(h), Bees(a), Huddersfield(a) and Southend(h)

So either way, Barnsley will have a big influence on the outcome of this years league :yes:

 

[Alex]

...you must also take into account how many games the top 6 will play against each other, we have Barnsley(H), Swansea(A), and Colchester(A) to play. Others below (plus Swansea play Colchester in LDV 2 legs);
Southend: Colchester(a), Barnsley(a), and Swansea(a)
Colchester: Barnsley(A), Southend(h), and Bees(h)
Huddersfield: Swansea(a), and Barnsley(h)
Swansea: Huddersfield(h), Barnsley(a), Bees(h) and Southend(h)
Barnsley: Colchester(h), Swansea(h), Bees(a), Huddersfield(a) and Southend(h)

Yes that's what he did, gave us a number of points we needed each week and a comparison to the others to see how we were going against them.

 

[bees78]

Yes that's what he did, gave us a number of points we needed each week and a comparison to the others to see how we were going against them.

So I could of saved myself digging through all the fixtures then

 

[davido_i]

The rule of thumb I use is 85 points for automatic promotion & 75 points for a play-off spot, if you can get or better still, exceed these targets, you should have done enough.

Leaves us needing 28 points from 15 games, a minimum of 8 wins, tough but do-able.

Southend (22 from 12) & Colchester (26 from 14) have very similar challenges.

I just hope we have enough firepower, particularly away from home.

 

[Mr Tree]

those are indeed the norms, davido, but i can see some bizarre totals happening this year - think you'll need more than 50 to avoid relegation, for example, and everyone keeps winning at the top so who knows!

 

[TOMOGP]

I think 24 points from 15 games is a very poor return - what makes you think we will do so badly? Certainly our form to date is better than that. I think we will get 30-35 points from our remaining games and that will be hard for two teams to surpass.

On the surface I would agree however we have 57 points from 31 games this is 1.83 per game * by 15 = 27 points with an allowance for example 3 away in 8 days etc thats where I get the 24 points from but with my PMA specs on its 30 points

 

[bees78]

PMA... we're not going to lose another game...PMA

 

[The H]

i'll wait until you've edited this

 

[TOMOGP]

PMA... we're going to lose another game...PMA

 

[SQUELCH]

Big game tonight. Who do we want/need to win?

 

[Claire]

a draw would be best surely?

 

[jlove]

0-0 draw and a few red cards would suit us nicely!

 

[Bigbee]

I didnt read this thread before I started a more specific one on " other football " etc .Also this thread doesnt say its live on Sky ,I think some of us would like to watch it ?

 

[kojebee]

I could resurrect my 'promotion calculator' - was gonna leave it 'til later once the front runners have opened up a bit more of a gap but if there's an interest already :shrug:

I see it like this (but subject to change)

Southend 89 points +28 Goal diff
Colchester 83 +26

Brentford 83 +25
Huddersfield 80 +18
Swansea 76 +27
Barnsley 71 +17


Play offs:

Barnsley 1 Brentford 1
Swansea 2 Huddersfield 1

Brentford 1 Barnsley 0 (2-1agg)
Huddersfield 1 Swansea 0 (2-2agg - Hudds on away goals)

Final

Brentford 2 Huddersfield 1

 

[bees78]

I see it like this (but subject to change)

Southend 89 points +28 Goal diff
Colchester 83 +26

Brentford 83 +25
Huddersfield 80 +18
Swansea 76 +27
Barnsley 71 +17


Play offs:

Barnsley 1 Brentford 1
Swansea 2 Huddersfield 1

Brentford 1 Barnsley 0 (2-1agg)
Huddersfield 1 Swansea 0 (2-2agg - Hudds on away goals)

Final

Brentford 2 Huddersfield 1

GO AWAY! No Play-offs this year...up as CHAMPIONS

 

[Bristolian Bee]

Taking 85 points as the bench-mark for a place in the top two, Udders and Swansea need 25 and 27 points respectively from their last 11 games if they are to secure automatic promotion.

That means 9 wins from 11 for both of them.

 

[West Ealing Bee]

If today is anything to go by perhaps it's not just down to six teams

 

[Boston Bee]

While I definitely didn't think so last Saturday, maybe it's for the best that we're out of the Cup; not waiting for a physically and emotionally sapping return fixture with CAFC. I think MA will get them back in focus for a determined run-in starting Tuesday night.