Operation Promotion

[Nada Bee]

Starts here.

45 points needed from 22 games.

#PMA, #beelieve

:xmas:

I firmly believe this is the amount we need for automatic promotion. I am for once, being optimistic about it. I am also hoping, it'll be 42 from 21 required come Tuesday evening.

 

[NicoBFC]

Average points for top spot in the past 5 seasons: 95.8

Average points for second place in the past 5 seasons: 88.4

Think you may be right

 

[Nada Bee]

I'd love to win it, but lets not get too carried away

After Bournemouth, i really do expect us to win our next 5 home games.

 

[super J]

I reckon 86 points might be enough to get 2nd place. Uwe made an interesting point that if we beat Bournemouth on New year's day it will make it very tough for them to catch us. Thee top 4 does look like it is pulling away slightly from the pack. The worry for me is coventry but it probably depends on if they can keep McGoldrick or if he will go back to forest.

Question is whether the remaining 23 games (now 22) are harder than the first 23? If we can double our half way total of 44 points, I'm certain 88 will be enough. Sheffield utd, MK dons and coventry away will all be massive but with our home record we may only need to pick up draws.

 

[NicoBFC]

February looks a very tasty month to get some points on the board!

 

[Nada Bee]

I reckon 86 points might be enough to get 2nd place. Uwe made an interesting point that if we beat Bournemouth on New year's day it will make it very tough for them to catch us. Thee top 4 does look like it is pulling away slightly from the pack. The worry for me is coventry but it probably depends on if they can keep McGoldrick or if he will go back to forest.

Question is whether the remaining 23 games (now 22) are harder than the first 23? If we can double our half way total of 44 points, I'm certain 88 will be enough. Sheffield utd, MK dons and coventry away will all be massive but with our home record we may only need to pick up draws.

Our home games are easier, our away games... well. Just win the points at home and we're up!

 

[wanderer paul]

I reckon we shouldn't be counting our chickens just yet. We're good. We have creativity, flair and some bite. When April comes and we're sitting in the top two, then I'll think about promotion. Too early. Way to early.

 

[Nada Bee]

I reckon we shouldn't be counting our chickens just yet. We're good. We have creativity, flair and some bite. When April comes and we're sitting in the top two, then I'll think about promotion. Too early. Way to early.

Whos counting any chickens, just simply stating the points total we need to get too.

 

[wanderer paul]

Whos counting any chickens, just simply stating the points total we need to get too.

What if we need 91 or 92 to be 1st or 2nd?? :shrug:

 

[Nada Bee]

What if we need 91 or 92 to be 1st or 2nd?? :shrug:

Now who's counting their chickens?

 

[GP200]

February looks a very tasty month to get some points on the board!

.............stop it.............people said this about our first ten games.............

 

[wanderer paul]

Now who's counting their chickens?

I'm counting nothing yet. There's such a long way to go. We may need 85 points, 90 points, 95 points. Who knows? There's only one target and that's a top two finish. The next target, if that fails, is top 6. One game at a time, enjoy everyone one of them, try and get to as many as you can and support the players and management, no matter what happens. There will be hiccups along the way. Uwe will deal with it. We got a point today. Some are happy, some aren't, it's a point, we're 4th, 2 pts off top.
If we get neither, we'll all be disappointed, and start a thread of "Uwe out". :yawn:

 

[Herbert]

February looks a very tasty month to get some points on the board!

Every month looks tasty

 

[stano]

Feet on the ground. Lets not pile pressure on the squad.

 

[TW3Bee]

I reckon we shouldn't be counting our chickens just yet. We're good. We have creativity, flair and some bite. When April comes and we're sitting in the top two, then I'll think about promotion. Too early. Way to early.

There speaks 40 years experience of supporting The Bees.

 

[Holysmit]

I like this thread as it foucs on what we have to do and I think if we do that we'll go up! 45 more points required!

 

[BURFORD BEE]

There are no easy games. Ask Shef Utd who must have thought that they just had to turn up to beat Hartlepool at home yesterday. What about our home game with them come to that. There will be games where we drop points which we expect to walk and hopefully games we win which thought that we would be lucky to draw.
We just need to take each game as it comes, trust the manager when he decides to rest players like yesterday ( I believe that he has earned that trust now ) and hope that we dont pick up too many injuries or a horrible fixture backlog. I would be very disappointed if ,from this position, we didnt make the play offs. A top 2 spot is a possibility but there are other strong contenders that we will have to fight off along the way. One or both of Doncaster and Shef U have to drop points tomorrow so we really need to win to take advantage of this.

 

[hypa123]

Feet on the ground. Lets not pile pressure on the squad.

Precisely. I imagine that UR will be encouraging the players to do just that, to take each game as it comes and to continue perfecting their basic skills without concerning themselves with such and such a number of points as an end-of-season target.

The number of points needed will be one more (or a superior goal difference) than whoever finishes in third place. Given the wider spread of plausible contending clubs this season, I expect the requisite number of points for automatic promotion to be rather fewer than the usual 90 or thereabouts, perhaps as few as 85. Over the past 22 games, ie excluding the non-performances in the opening games against Bury and Yeovil, we have taken 44 points, exactly equivalent to an unbroken win-draw-win-draw sequence and good for a total of 92 points if maintained over a season.

The five-win run has now been broken and it's pretty certain - though not inevitable - that the unbeaten run will come to an end sooner or later this season. The important thing is to ensure that the squad's resources are properly developed and exploited, spreading the burden of games so that it doesn't fall too heavily on individual players, accepting the occasional setback - for example, the odd defeat or the inevitable duff refereeing decision - with resilience, and not placing undue emphasis on this or that individual result or setting targets that may or may not be achievable.

 

[The Pipe]

Are we safe from relegation yet ???? ( 50 plus years of support behind me!!!!!)

 

[Nada Bee]

I find it amusing that a thread im starting on the GPG to merely state what points tally we need to get to is "putting pressure on the squad"

 

[scruff puppy pup]

February looks a very tasty month to get some points on the board!

So did September and October and looked what happened back then.

 

[hanworthbee]

Just, need to win all of our home games

 

[dbee3]

I find it amusing that a thread im starting on the GPG to merely state what points tally we need to get to is "putting pressure on the squad"

Apparently, the media not talking about us will also help.

 

[scruff puppy pup]

Div One 3rd place points totals since 2004/5 (i.e. what we need to better):

Sheff Utd 90
Huddersfield 87
Millwall 85
MK Dons 87
Doncaster 80
Blackpool 83
Brentford 76
Tranmere 79

So, only exceptionally is 90 points required, usually 88 will do. When Donaster finished with 80, the runners-up went up with 82.

 

[YorkBee]

simples 45 points = 15 wins therefore thats the way to count it have a checklist on my wall as we speak ready counting them down

 

[Rusholme Bee]

Average for third place is 85.8 then, so 86 could be enough for second.

 

[vcmazz]

What if we need 91 or 92 to be 1st or 2nd?? :shrug:

Agreed. A decent first half but we're in for a long winter. Snow, wind and rain to deal with - and we've been relatively lucky with injuries so far. But what I find most encouraging is the way we have improved and grown stronger as the season has progressed. Fingers firmly crossed .

 

[Nada Bee]

44 from 21 games needed.

Another point gained today.

Can someone edit my main post please.

 

[scruff puppy pup]

Average for third place is 85.8 then, so 86 could be enough for second.

I'm going to guess 87 will be enough for 2nd.

 

[Nada Bee]

41 from 20 needed.

No point getting upset with other results. This is the target we need!!!

 

[Holysmit]

41 from 20 needed.

No point getting upset with other results. This is the target we need!!!

Wouldn't have been enough last season

 

[GP200]

...............three more today..................

 

[grutter]

Wouldn't have been enough last season

...or the season before, for that matter.

However, I don't think there are two stand out sides in the division this year. Plenty of teams are capable of beating/drawing with the teams in the top 6 and are doing so - I reckon 90 points will be enough to win the division this year.

 

[vcmazz]

41 from 20 needed.

No point getting upset with other results. This is the target we need!!!

Been thinking that very thing today. It's our points tally that will count in the end, the other team's results will take care of themselves in the long run .

 

[SH]

Hadn't realised how the fixture list sets up the next couple of months. Until we play Swindon on March 12th, we don't play anyone higher than 9th and mostly mid-table, with a couple of strugglers. 30 really vital points up for grabs before the final 9 games bring Swindon, Sheffield Utd, MK, Coventry and, of course, the big Donny denouement.

What a cracking three months to look forward to

 

[super J]

Well this looks a write off now doesn't it. 1 win in the last 8 has put paid to this however with lots of teams taking points off each other I think it could be a much lower total needed for automatic promotion.

If we can find our mojo again and get back to winning ways:

16 games left
10 wins
3 draws
3 defeats

84 points could be enough?

 

[josht]

This season is starting to remind me of the 2008/2009 season when we won League Two.

That year it seemed as if no team wanted to go up, basically meaning that the difference in quality amongst the top ten was minimal. In the end it came down to whom went on the best run over the last 10-15 games.

I reckon stringing together a good run of results over the next 5 games could define this season. We've now got 6 very winnable games, with only Walsall amongst those whom are on form. 15 points from these could see us hovering around the top two again. A string of good performances and winning the seventh against Swindon... and we'll get promoted

Big time for us.

 

[Aussie Bee]

Well its 36 points from 15 games now - or 12 wins - we have to play Swindon, Sheff Utd, Coventry and Doncaster amongst that lot - so taking into account the usual "It's Brentford INNIT" moments still to come like losing at home to Portsmouth I can't see us getting anywhere near 90 points.

Is 90 points still the target though? Maybe 85 would get us into second spot the way everyone keeps dropping points?

 

[chizbee]

Second place will do very nicely thankyou very much.

 

[taylor339]

If we win the remaining 15 fixtures, that would end our season on 99 points so we should definitely go up that with that tally. As Aussie Bee mentioned, I reckon it will be more like 85.... here's how.

Home games - we are very strong- If we only took our home form only into account we would be 2nd. Wins against Walsall, Scunny, Swindon, PNE, Notts C, Pompey, Hartlepool, Donny = 24 points
Away games, 7 points - we have some hard away games plus mid week ones where we don't generally do as well in. Crawley - 1, Stevenage - 1, Carlisle - 3, Shef Utd 0, MK 1, Coventry 0, Crewe 1 = 7 points

Total 31
Plus 54 points we have already

Total 85 - so definitely plays offs I reckon and anything else above that is a bonus

 

[super J]

Automatic Promotion- 10 more wins?

We don't want the playoffs so it has to be automatic promotion to aim for, this division is so open, there is no outstanding side and anyone can beat anyone.

How many points do we need and how many wins do we need?

15 games left, 7 home, 8 away. Crucially though a lot of the away games are southern based or near enough to take large followings (Coventry, MK Dons, Stevenage).

I reckon 10 wins from 15 will be enough but that is a big, big, ask of a young, small squad. That would give us 84 points which on its own may be enough.

I know at this stage of the season fixtures on paper count for little but I think avoiding away games against top six clubs is very important and we only have Sheffield Utd away to play.

Huge couple of months coming up!

 

[ChinaBee]

If we win the remaining 15 fixtures, that would end our season on 99 points so we should definitely go up that with that tally. As Aussie Bee mentioned, I reckon it will be more like 85.... here's how.

Home games - we are very strong- If we only took our home form only into account we would be 2nd. Wins against Walsall, Scunny, Swindon, PNE, Notts C, Pompey, Hartlepool, Donny = 24 points
Away games, 7 points - we have some hard away games plus mid week ones where we don't generally do as well in. Crawley - 1, Stevenage - 1, Carlisle - 3, Shef Utd 0, MK 1, Coventry 0, Crewe 1 = 7 points

Total 31
Plus 54 points we have already

Total 85 - so definitely plays offs I reckon and anything else above that is a bonus

Can't count Pompey as I think they will be expelled from league, the games against the lower teams will be harder to get max points. Big three months

 

[Bill Benn]

Can't count Pompey as I think they will be expelled from league, the games against the lower teams will be harder to get max points. Big three months

Really?l fully expect them to see out the season and then be liquidated ( sadly) their current situation is the same as its been all season.

 

[Bill Benn]

We have 7 games to play before we get to the so called big one against Sheffield united which is a month away.So much can and will change over that period l can't see Yeovil keeping up their incredible run.Wouldnt be too quick to right off swindon may get a good manager in to replace Paulo.Still think its us and Sheffield United to get top 2 places.

 

[Nada Bee]

So 7 out of the last 9 points, are we feeling anymore optimistic yet?

90 points is now not the target, it would mean the top 2 winning 10 out of their last 12 games. So at 2 points a game from now, it is now

Operation 86 points :yes:

So, 28 points from 13 games required now.

Starting with hopefully, 3 points tomorrow.

#pma!!!!

 

[SH]

58 + 18 (6 home wins) + 9 (Stevenage, Carlisle, Hartlepool away wins) + 2 (MK, Crewe away draws) = 87 = automatic promotion

 

[bostonhanwell]

Our next 3 games are absolutely vital. We need to win all these as we face a really tricky run in. Even Hartlepool away which looked a banker a few weeks ago looks like a toughie now.
The Swindon, Sheffield United and Doncaster games are all six pointers.

Interestingly the bookies have us second favorites to win the League.

 

[taylor339]

It'll come down to the last game of the season against Donny I bet. Hope i'm wrong though!

 

[NicoBFC]

It'll come down to the last game of the season against Donny I bet. Hope i'm wrong though!

Tranny v Bmouth on the last day as well!

 

[Wooburn Bee]

So 7 out of the last 9 points, are we feeling anymore optimistic yet?

90 points is now not the target, it would mean the top 2 winning 10 out of their last 12 games. So at 2 points a game from now, it is now

Operation 86 points :yes:

So, 28 points from 13 games required now.

Starting with hopefully, 3 points tomorrow.

#pma!!!!

I think 85 points will now be sufficient. At present though i cant see us averaging more than an average two points a game which will put us on 84!!