Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
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Gazza Bee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Having beaten 3 of the teams above us this season, drawn with 1 and narrowly lost to the other.. bonkers
Sianist
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Brentford Stats, Fixtures, Results and Predictions | Opta Analyst
The home of Brentford football club stats, fixtures, results and predictions brought to you by Opta Analyst.
theanalyst.com
Predicted to have 0.25% of winning the league and 0.20% of ending 20th
6.88% of Champions League
Another 4.98% for 'other' Europe)
Jezybee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
According to Understat, we’re just over par in terms of “Justice League” 14.21pts vs Premier League 13pts.
Striking by how much both North London clubs (although Arsenal still top on xPts) , Bournemouth, Sunderland, Villa & Burnley have outperformed their expected points. Spurs, Sunderland & Villa all bottom half of JL.
On performance data, (dirty) Leeds, not Sunderland, should be the story of the promoted clubs. Let’s see how it plays out over the season.
understat.com
Striking by how much both North London clubs (although Arsenal still top on xPts) , Bournemouth, Sunderland, Villa & Burnley have outperformed their expected points. Spurs, Sunderland & Villa all bottom half of JL.
On performance data, (dirty) Leeds, not Sunderland, should be the story of the promoted clubs. Let’s see how it plays out over the season.
EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2026/2027 season | Understat.com
xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2026/2027 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.
understat.com
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
If you like all things xG, how about this: Actual Goal Difference vs. Expected Goal Difference after 9 games (from Understat):
Our GD is 0, whereas it "should" have been +3.82, but the unbelievable numbers are Burnley and Spurs far outperforming expectations, with Wolves and Leeds the opposite. Hence Burnley's position at the bottom of 'justice leagues' and Leeds near the top.
Our GD is 0, whereas it "should" have been +3.82, but the unbelievable numbers are Burnley and Spurs far outperforming expectations, with Wolves and Leeds the opposite. Hence Burnley's position at the bottom of 'justice leagues' and Leeds near the top.
StevieSteve
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Jay Bee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Impressive. I'm pretty sure the highest we ever made it in the 538 global ranking was 20th, when their rankings were abolished at the end of 22/23. I think we were 20th in the last ever table they published in fact.
Only 12th best team in the PL even so... huge PL domination.
Our two wins have moved us from about 10% chance of relegation to 1.96%.
GABS
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NZ Bee
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Boston Bee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
I’ll be glad too see the backs of Wolves and Forest and Leeds. Odious top to bottom.
brentford born & bred
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
In my best Kevin Keegan "I would love, just love it"
It would only be topped if we could replace West Ham with Leeds.
hairman
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Yes. Those six points are always very welcome.
badgerbee
Mafeking Avenue........gets you there!!!!
Edmundo
Whinging pom
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Leeds I’ll accept, but Putney’s one of the best days out of the season, so that’s not for me, Clive
Indian Bee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
I look at the PL table after we play which is the best version of the truth not some OpTa or Justice league sh*t people (the usual suspects) keep on going about.
Untouchable
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
The usual suspects being the club owner and director of football.
Still, I’m sure you know better
Sianist
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Don't mind them getting relegated, but there's others
A semi-prioritised list would be Forest, Leeds, Fulham, West Ham, Wolves
Bumbling fool
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Indian Bee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Yes I can see them looking at the justice league that YOU are so fond off ahead of the PL table after each Brentford game. Pls don’t write another essay how our club is data driven - I know this sh*tThe usual suspects being the club owner and director of football.
Still, I’m sure you know better
Edmundo
Whinging pom
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Who would replace them that we would beat so frequently?
Untouchable
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Wouldn’t it be horrifically embarrassing for you if there was a video of Phil Giles saying that we ignore the league table because that’s not how we judge our success.
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Oh dear. Are you new around here? This is probably the most awkward post by someone that pretends to know what they are talking about,
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Maybe there's a GPG interview with the owner of the club too that, er, make Indian Bee look like someone that doesn't have a clue.
Indian Bee
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Indian Bee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
ha ha how will Wolves get 29 points this season ? I am not even sure Wolves fans believe this ..... what a load of tosh.
Hullbee
Wash your hands you filthy animals
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
We do the same at the Council just ignore the government performance standards and pat ourselves on the back saying what a great job we all do
Indian Bee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
I'll be interested to know are we top 6 in the Justice league ??
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
2 points after 10 games. They will be lucky to get to double figures.
GABS
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
It's like when everyone was worried how we'd replace Toney (and then how we'd replace Bryan and Wissa). Everyone wondered how Leeds would replace Bamford but hey, they've done it. They've only gone and done it.
Gazza Bee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
So in essence we should have scored more and conceded less than we have which would have lead to 3 more points - hopefully we revert to the xPTS across the whole season and we could be in for another exciting finale just like last season...
ChrisSmith1992
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Beecareful
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Lionel Bart-At
formerly known as 'heavywoollenbee'
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
This may be of interest to you stato's (BBC Sport website):
Why xG can't always tell us how good a team really is
Why xG can't always tell us how good a team really is
brentford born & bred
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
The comments section contained so many dinosaurs it reminded me of Jurassic Park. I would image most them are Florist supporters.
Jezybee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Like a rare near complete solar eclipse both “there’s only one league table that counts” and “trust the underlying performance data” camps are aligning. 7th in the EPL table and 6th in the Justice League, with a small Points and Expected Points delta.
Aston Villa and Sunderland continue to out point their performances. Indicates they’ve won games they should have drawn and drawn games they should have lost - we have first hand experience of this with Sunderland (A). Let’s not repeat it on Weds.
Conversely, Leeds are actually better than the points they’ve gained (no tears shed here) and Wolves continue to be bad but nowhere near as terrible as their points total.
5th - 16th so tight that small difference in Ponits and XPoints creating substantial divergence between EPL & Justice table positions.
understat.com
Aston Villa and Sunderland continue to out point their performances. Indicates they’ve won games they should have drawn and drawn games they should have lost - we have first hand experience of this with Sunderland (A). Let’s not repeat it on Weds.
Conversely, Leeds are actually better than the points they’ve gained (no tears shed here) and Wolves continue to be bad but nowhere near as terrible as their points total.
5th - 16th so tight that small difference in Ponits and XPoints creating substantial divergence between EPL & Justice table positions.
EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2026/2027 season | Understat.com
xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2026/2027 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.
understat.com
kaebess
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Like a rare near complete solar eclipse both “there’s only one league table that counts” and “trust the underlying performance data” camps are aligning. 7th in the EPL table and 6th in the Justice League, with a small Points and Expected Points delta.
View attachment 62784
Aston Villa and Sunderland continue to out point their performances. Indicates they’ve won games they should have drawn and drawn games they should have lost - we have first hand experience of this with Sunderland (A). Let’s not repeat it on Weds.
Conversely, Leeds are actually better than the points they’ve gained (no tears shed here) and Wolves continue to be bad but nowhere near as terrible as their points total.
5th - 16th so tight that small difference in Ponits and XPoints creating substantial divergence between EPL & Justice table positions.
EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2026/2027 season | Understat.com
xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2026/2027 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.
Only 18 teams showing ?
Jezybee
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
How I was able to screenshot it on my phone.
West Ham & Burnley (in that order) below Wolves when ranked by XPoints.
Link at bottom of my previous post should you want to go to the source.
kaebess
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Thank you, should have realised that those two teams would be below Wolves
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
Good evidence of the old saw about long term data trends aligning: 7th in the table, 6th in the justice league, 5th in xGF, 6th in xGA, 8th in home xPTS, 5th in away xPTS (!)
As you say, let's hope Sunderland revert to their 'true' posiition: 17th in justice league, 19th in xGF, 13th in xGA, 15th in away xPTS. Interesting that their away goals conceded (11; =3rd) is miles better than their 16 xGA away. Hopefully we'll put those numbers right on Wednesday.
Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
It's called reversion to the mean. Now that more games have been played, it stands to reason that there's convergence.
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Opta Expected Table (Week v Week)
17% chance of Europe
Fulham are 20x more likely to get relegated than us
Spurs are 22x more likely to get relegated than us!
UECL is 0% for all as that's where the League Cup winners go, until it's evident that it will be won by a team that qualifies for Europe by league position.
Also, I suspect that the 6.27% assumes there are 4 CL places, when it is likely that England will get 5 CL places. It which case our chances of CL next season are 17% (6.29% of Top 4 + 10.41% for 5th place)
Fulham are 20x more likely to get relegated than us
Spurs are 22x more likely to get relegated than us!
UECL is 0% for all as that's where the League Cup winners go, until it's evident that it will be won by a team that qualifies for Europe by league position.
Also, I suspect that the 6.27% assumes there are 4 CL places, when it is likely that England will get 5 CL places. It which case our chances of CL next season are 17% (6.29% of Top 4 + 10.41% for 5th place)
