Not sure exactly how many more black players there are now than in the 70's/80's etc
But in any case, if the figures were, say, 10% in 1970, 15% in 1990 and 20% now, why has the number of black Managers in the game never reached even 5% at any stage in the last 44 years?
And you predict that the percentage will increase "significantly in the next few years". Considering so many (white) players have stepped from playing into their
first job in Management, with maybe only a couple of years Coaching/acquiring Badges in between (sometimes not even that), why could this not already have happened for black players during, say, the last 10 years*?
Or do you think something has changed recently during that period to make a substantial difference to the next ten?
I'd like to think you're right, but see absolutely no sign of it myself.
For myself, I doubt that many Chairmen/Owners are consciously racist in shunning black candidates solely because of their colour, but suspect that far too many still harbour a subconscious view that black candidates "may be OK when it comes to playing the game, but they're not really cut out for
Managing in it" (due to background, education, contacts, social skills, or whatever other bollox they want to come out with to reinforce their prejudices).
Which if I'm right means the only things which could change this mindset significantly is if:
(a ) the Government intervenes with Quotas or Affirmative Action; or
(b ) a 'black Alex Ferguson' emerges; or
(c ) British Football adopts a version of the NFL's 2003 'Rooney Rule' -
"At the start of the 2006 season, the overall percentage of African American coaches had jumped to 22%, up from 6% prior to the Rooney Rule" (see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rooney_Rule )
Of these three, I don't think (a ) is at all likely, or even desirable and I fear (b ) must be so statistically unlikely as to be discounted.
I suspect (c ) may have an outside chance of being adopted and could prove beneficial if it were, but even then, it is hardly the perfect answer (imo) -
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...ng-job-done/Z8kX8KPbDtKO0gIzrcesmI/story.html
* - You point out that most Managers are 40+, but most players retire in their early/mid 30's, so that those retiring 10 years ago will all now be 40+ and with a high percentage of black people in their ranks. Yet 2014's Managers are still overwhelmingly white. This simply doesn't add up.