Points make prizes

[Infatuated Bees Alter Ego]

How many will we get from the remaining games in the normal season ?

19/03 H Chesterfield
22/03 A Blackpool
25/03 A Wrexham
28/03 H Peterborough
02/04 A Stockport
09/04 H Bristol City
12/04 H Tranmere
16/04 A Bradford City
23/04 H Huddersfield
30/04 A Luton
07/05 H Hull City

 

[Carri Bee Un]

19/03 H Chesterfield 3
22/03 A Blackpool 3
25/03 A Wrexham 0
28/03 H Peterborough 0
02/04 A Stockport 1
09/04 H Bristol City 3
12/04 H Tranmere 1
16/04 A Bradford City 1
23/04 H Huddersfield 0
30/04 A Luton 3
07/05 H Hull City 3

This is based on my scientific formula.

 

[alikat]

19/03 H Chesterfield 3
22/03 A Blackpool 3
25/03 A Wrexham 0
28/03 H Peterborough 0
02/04 A Stockport 1
09/04 H Bristol City 3
12/04 H Tranmere 1
16/04 A Bradford City 1
23/04 H Huddersfield 0
30/04 A Luton 3
07/05 H Hull City 3

This is based on my scientific formula.

It doesn't look very scientific to me! Alcoholic, maybe

 

[YorkBee]

well personally I am going for the following

19/03 H Chesterfield 3
22/03 A Blackpool 1
25/03 A Wrexham 3
28/03 H Peterborough 3
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 3
12/04 H Tranmere 1
16/04 A Bradford City 1
23/04 H Huddersfield 3
30/04 A Luton 1
07/05 H Hull City 3

25 points finishing 4th

but I would be happy with finishing 6th and going up via the playoffs

 

[JBN]

Having seen us finish third and not go up via the play offs (which I detest), I would like to see us finish 6th and get promoted.

 

[Brain-dead Bee]

Having seen us finish third and not go up via the play offs (which I detest), I would like to see us finish 6th and get promoted.

I think we even finished second and missed out by losing on pens to Huddersfield, who'd been 3 places below us (think there was only one automatic promotion - Birmingham? - that season).

I can remember 4 unsuccessful sets of play-offs: the finals against Crewe and Stoke, the Huddersfield game mentioned above, and one against Tranmere. Just hope we can make it our year this time

 

[Carri Bee Un]

It doesn't look very scientific to me! Alcoholic, maybe

I drink my scientific formula.

Trust in science Mr Alikat for we are going up.

 

[Snappy]

How many will we get from the remaining games in the normal season ?

19/03 H Chesterfield 3
22/03 A Blackpool 1
25/03 A Wrexham 3
28/03 H Peterborough 3
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 1
12/04 H Tranmere 0
16/04 A Bradford City 1
23/04 H Huddersfield 3
30/04 A Luton 0
07/05 H Hull City 1

A slightly pessimistic 19 from a possible 33, although we've certainly shown that we don't have to fear any team in this division so we're just as capable of winning every single one of our remaining 11 matches including a final day victory over Hull securing our spot in the top 2 and automatic promotion to the Championship.

 

[Matty D]

19/03 H Chesterfield 3
22/03 A Blackpool 1
25/03 A Wrexham 0
28/03 H Peterborough 3
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 3
12/04 H Tranmere 1
16/04 A Bradford City 1
23/04 H Huddersfield 3
30/04 A Luton 0
07/05 H Hull City 0

18 points, with us finishing on 76 - should just be enough :yes:

 

[Les Beeavinu]

19/03 H Chesterfield 3
22/03 A Blackpool 1
25/03 A Wrexham 0
28/03 H Peterborough 3
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 3
12/04 H Tranmere 1
16/04 A Bradford City 1
23/04 H Huddersfield 3
30/04 A Luton 0
07/05 H Hull City 0

18 points, with us finishing on 76 - should just be enough :yes:

Any optimists care to respond.

 

[Edmundo]

I reckon we will get between 22 and 24 points from these games, which will easily be enough to secure a play-off berth. Last season we picked up 18 points from our last 9 games and our squad now is incomparably better (despite the injury to Alex Rhodes). Yes it's a tough run-in. So what? We play better against the better teams and mess up against the rubbish ones - and have done so for just about as long as I can remember (eg the year we won Division 3 (98/99) we took just one point off Scarborough, the team that finished bottom - but took 6 points off Cambridge, who finished second).

 

[Les Beeavinu]

Anybody know the points usually required for a play off place?

 

[kenjamming]

The most points needed since 1994 to clinch sixth place was 82 (2000), while the lowest was 70 (1998). I reckon mid-70s should do it, say 76 points to be safe. Six more wins needed from the last eleven at least. So, if we win all the home games, any bonus on our travels will help push us further up the table.

 

[Les Beeavinu]

The most points needed since 1994 to clinch sixth place was 82 (2000), while the lowest was 70 (1998). I reckon mid-70s should do it, say 76 points to be safe. Six more wins needed from the last eleven at least. So, if we win all the home games, any bonus on our travels will help push us further up the table.

Many thanks. Cardiff it is then

 

[davido_i]

Totally agree with Ken, the usual "formula" is 85 points for automatic & 75 for play-off based on 46 games. Since we have such a dodgy goal difference, I would have 76 points which will get you in 9 years out of 10.

 

[West Ealing Bee]

I reckon 25 is a realistic aim, and should she us comfortably in the play-offs, may even secure a home second leg.

I think 21 will be enough for top 6 and if we were to get 30ish we wouldn't be far off 2nd.

 

[Holysmit]

How many will we get from the remaining games in the normal season ?

19/03 H Chesterfield
22/03 A Blackpool
25/03 A Wrexham
28/03 H Peterborough
02/04 A Stockport
09/04 H Bristol City
12/04 H Tranmere
16/04 A Bradford City
23/04 H Huddersfield
30/04 A Luton
07/05 H Hull City

Chesterfield 3
Blackpool 0
Wrexham 1
Peterborough 3
Stockport 3
Bristol City 3
Tranmere 3
Bradford 1
Huddersfield 3
Luton 3
Hull 3

giving us a further 26 points

 

[Matty D]

I think 21 will be enough for top 6 and if we were to get 30ish we wouldn't be far off 2nd.

7th place totals (what you would have had to beat to get 6th spot):
2003-2004 73
2002-2003 80
2001-2002 73
2000-2001 73
1999-2000 80
1998-1999 76
1997-1998 70
1996-1997 69
1995-1996 72
1994-1995 75
1993-1994 70
1992-1993 72

Average: 73.6

So to beat that average by a clear point you really want 75 points. 3rd place average (what you would have had to beat to go up automatically) for the same period: 82.5

So far we've got 58 from 35 - 1.66 points per game. Maintainning the same 'run-rate' gives us 18.2 more points. My predicted results gave us 18, and a total of 76

 

[oakes12]

Hopefully Luton and Hull will have nothing to play for by the time we play them. If we still need the points we will get them. It would be great to enter the play offs in form and on a roll.

 

[alikat]

I drink my scientific formula.

Trust in science Mr Alikat for we are going up.

CBU, I am hopeful, based on recent form, that we stand a very good chance of making the play offs, and, if we do so, I am more confident that on all previous occasions that we will be successful in the play offs. With MA + PMA (brothers in arms? ), everything is possible.

My initial comment was merely based on some of your individual match predictions, which seem, shall we say, a tad odd (in particular P'boro home and Huddersfield home, and, to a lesser extent, Wrexham away, Stockport away, Luton away). But then again, you could well be right on these, as it's a funny ol' game, innit? Hey ho!

 

[AB]

The sort of run we need to guarantee the play-offs also means that we would be in sufficiently good form to have a good chance of winning them.

I would imagine that MA hasn't yet written off the possibility of winning our remaining 11 games to take us onto 91 points (what's the highest points total for a team not to get auto promotion, 86 by Reading in 00/01, which was also a similar season to this one with 2 teams in the 90s). So we could even probably afford a slip up as long as it was against one of the lower teams!

 

[alikat]

Hopefully Luton and Hull will have nothing to play for by the time we play them. If we still need the points we will get them. It would be great to enter the play offs in form and on a roll.

If they don't have the position as Champions to play for, I'm sure that Luton, at least, will be very determined to beat us after already losing twice to us this season, so if we get anything out of that game, I think it'll be a bonus.

I'm still very hopeful that we'll may it irrespective of these last 2 games.

 

[BEEWILD]

19/03 H Chesterfield 3
22/03 A Blackpool 3
25/03 A Wrexham 3
28/03 H Peterborough 3
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 3
12/04 H Tranmere 3
16/04 A Bradford City 3
23/04 H Huddersfield 3
30/04 A Luton 3
07/05 H Hull City 3

PMA

 

[Beesnut]

19/03 H Chesterfield 3
22/03 A Blackpool 0
25/03 A Wrexham 1
28/03 H Peterborough 1
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 3
12/04 H Tranmere 3
16/04 A Bradford City 1
23/04 H Huddersfield 1
30/04 A Luton 3
07/05 H Hull City 3

 

[Edmundo]

I would imagine that MA hasn't yet written off the possibility of winning our remaining 11 games to take us onto 91 points

The highest points total Brentford have ever achieved is 85. In 1994/5 this gave us second place in Division 2. In 1998/9 it gave us the Championship of Division 3.

If we exceed 85 points this season, I am confident that we will be playing in the Championship next year!

 

[JANORAK]

I think we even finished second and missed out by losing on pens to Huddersfield, who'd been 3 places below us (think there was only one automatic promotion - Birmingham? - that season).

Yep, it's actually happened twice to us (1958 -2nd to Brighton[?]). Only Brentford could manage to do this of course, choosing to shine in seasons when the leagues are being reorganised, and not be promoted as a result....

 

[JANORAK]

I bow to those earlier in the thread who've had time to work their slide rules, but would expect c.20pts to be enough for the Play-Offs. Obviously if the present run continues, this could turn into 24-25 pts to make the end of season exciting.
Assessment :- Realistically the top 2 have too much of a head start, but with game(s) in hand 3rd place might be possible...SheffW have had bad news this week with CF McLean breaking a foot & GK Lucas (who def.had a dodgy knee
at GP the other week) having an op. & now out for 6 weeks...Tranny have slipped to 4th & may have cracked with the strain of chasing the top 2 for so long...B'mouth remain inconsistent & now running out of games...'Pool have already lost too many games, but may hang on to 6th....Bris,Swin & Brad all need to put a run together in their last 9 games = all done & dusted

 

[Carri Bee Un]

My initial comment was merely based on some of your individual match predictions, which seem, shall we say, a tad odd (in particular P'boro home and Huddersfield home, and, to a lesser extent, Wrexham away, Stockport away, Luton away). But then again, you could well be right on these, as it's a funny ol' game, innit? Hey ho!

I was quite quite drunk.....

I actually think we'll do much better than that, though both H'field and P'boro will indeed beat us at home

 

[Gazza Bee]

Hmm i would say 78 points needed to be certain. I cant see Hartlepool getting 20 points from their last 10 games and Bournemouth would need 18 from 9. 6 wins should do us tho i could be fun if it comes down to a last day shootout against Hull for the playoffs.

 

[Les Beeavinu]

...tho i could be fun if it comes down to a last day shootout against Hull for the playoffs.

No thank you. I couldn't face the stress of another Bournemouth. All nicely tied up before Luton away please.

Mind you, the play offs after that. They're always a laugh.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Anybody else notice who Bournemoth and Hartlepool are playing on the last day of the season

each other!

I hope they don't both need a point to get into the playoffs at our expense

 

[Garybaldbee]

Anybody else notice who Bournemoth and Hartlepool are playing on the last day of the season

each other!

I hope they don't both need a point to get into the playoffs at our expense

On the other hand, if we are two points clear of them both..... :bound:

 

[alikat]

Anybody else notice who Bournemoth and Hartlepool are playing on the last day of the season

each other!

I hope they don't both need a point to get into the playoffs at our expense

If that is the scenario, then we will have failed in our efforts to reach the play offs - we really need to ensure our place in the play offs before the last game (and ideally before that!).

 

[South Acton Bee]

22/03 A Blackpool 3
28/03 H Peterborough 3
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 1
12/04 H Tranmere 1
16/04 A Bradford City 3
19/04 A Wrexham 3
23/04 H Huddersfield 3
30/04 A Luton 1
07/05 H Hull City 3

80 points should be good enough for a playoff i'm hoping

 

[Les Beeavinu]

22/03 A Blackpool 3
28/03 H Peterborough 3
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 1
12/04 H Tranmere 1
16/04 A Bradford City 3
19/04 A Wrexham 3
23/04 H Huddersfield 3
30/04 A Luton 1
07/05 H Hull City 3

80 points should be good enough for a playoff i'm hoping

Four away wins out of five. Brave (some may say foolish ) man.

 

[beesbees]

22/03 A Blackpool 3
28/03 H Peterborough 3
02/04 A Stockport 3
09/04 H Bristol City 3
12/04 H Tranmere 3
16/04 A Bradford City 3
19/04 A Wrexham 3
23/04 H Huddersfield 3
30/04 A Luton 3
07/05 H Hull City 3


:bound: :bound:

 

[Paul O'Brien]

"Yep, it's actually happened twice to us (1958 -2nd to Brighton[?]). Only Brentford could manage to do this of course, choosing to shine in seasons when the leagues are being reorganised, and not be promoted as a result...."

Actually, the Brighton season was just an ordinary one as far as promotion to the old Div 2 was concerned. Although Brighton's bribery of Watford did have a little to do with us not going up.

It's almost impossible to tell what number of points will do it - 1997-8 saw Fulham in the playoffs with 70 points: Stoke on the other hand needed 82 points in 1999-2000.