Points needed?

[blunstone]

We need 50 points to have any chance of staying up.

From here on in, that is almost promotion contender form is it not ??

We certainly need a decent unbeaten run -- with a win every 2 or 3 matches?

Any statos have a better reading of the task in hand?

 

[SKA BEE]

mission impossible

 

[super_bees]

I think were going to need at least one more point than 21st place to stay up

 

[Harry Butler]

Ska bee if(and this is only a question so don't get excited)you ever post anything positive ever is there a chance your head would cave in?

 

[tobyw]

I reckon we need 30 points from our last 16 games (I'm sure one of the stattos will correct me if I'm wrong :computer: but I think historically 52 points is accepted to be the marker); at about 2 points a game that's automatic promotion form over the course of a season...

That's a massive turnaround to expect from out of nowhere

I'm usually one of the more positive ones, but that's just not going to happen is it...

 

[Harry Butler]

ERRRR Nope.....but till it's mathamatical .......bla bla bla.......we'll keep going,heads up.......bla bla bla good feeling and attitude in training......bla bla bla....... our heads won't drop bla bla bla......... good young players bla bla bla....... the fans are great here bla bla bla.........Lional road big leap forward bla bla bla..........No magic wand bla bla bla........Need the rub of the green bla bla bla.........this one's another three pointer bla bla bla...........win our home games bla bla bla...aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

 

[hanworthbee]

we need a major miracle to stay up, we have drawn 2 vital games and dropped 4 points and as we seem to get nothing away from home I think we need to start preparing for League 2, shame as with QPR and Leeds next season could have been tasty!

 

[8 Bee]

I said to Mrs 8 Bee after the match on Saturday that we need 2 points per game till the end of the season. Philosophically she pointed out that you can't get 2 points from a game

 

[Nick Hester]

We need 50 points to have any chance of staying up.

From here on in, that is almost promotion contender form is it not ??

We certainly need a decent unbeaten run -- with a win every 2 or 3 matches?

Any statos have a better reading of the task in hand?

Seriously, we all need to get over it...we were down at Christmas.

Start chanelling any energies and positive thoughts into next term in the basement division..

 

[Hanwell_Bee]

this 50 points thing is total crap, all we need is 4 wins or so then do better then the teams below us. to stay up. the bottom 5 or so teams are so poor they probably wont reach 50 points anyway.

 

[NorthamptonBee]

Seriously, we all need to get over it...we were down at Christmas.

Start chanelling any energies and positive thoughts into next term in the basement division..

Correct, we all knew this but I suffered a genuine hope injection after Yeovil where it looked like the players had it in them to go for it. I'd given up but they hadn't and then Saturday came to spoil it all and I realised I was a soppy old bastard.:sad:

 

[Nick Hester]

Correct, we all knew this but I suffered a genuine hope injection after Yeovil where it looked like the players had it in them to go for it. I'd given up but they hadn't and then Saturday came to spoil it all and I realised I was a soppy old bastard.:sad:

Your not a soppy old bastard..your just a fan.

Sad mate that there were 5,000 odd others there yesterday still turning up to support..I know the attendances are down on budget but 5,000 home fans I think is fantastic seeing the crap we've endured so far and will keep us going next year when we can start all over again..

Despite what some think, I think the Brentford fans are amazing.

 

[Sweepy]

To answer Blunstone Babe's question:

For 50 points it is 27 points required with 16 matches left.

Over the course of the season that would equate to (27/16)*46 = 77.625 points. To put in context what is required, Colchester went up automatically on 79 points last season.

 

[JTofBFC]

50 wont be enough this year I reckon 53/54 probably. If we get to 45 we'll be doing well.

 

[Youngbee2]

this 50 points thing is total crap, all we need is 4 wins or so then do better then the teams below us. to stay up. the bottom 5 or so teams are so poor they probably wont reach 50 points anyway.

We need to go on a short, decent run. Maybe 4 wins in 6. Its possible...

(that crack has gone straight to my head):tongue:

 

[Alan D]

Seriously, we all need to get over it...we were down at Christmas.

Start chanelling any energies and positive thoughts into next term in the basement division..

Personally I think the writing was on the wall long before Christmas. Probably when we appointed that clown Leroy as manager. Still I won't give up all hope until its mathamatically impossible. That should be around mid March.

 

[brickie]

this 50 points thing is total crap, all we need is 4 wins or so then do better then the teams below us. to stay up. the bottom 5 or so teams are so poor they probably wont reach 50 points anyway.

imwith:
This is looking more like it and will give some slim hope .........but its looking grim:sad:

 

[joet]

i was convinced we'd win yesterday.

:sad and a bit gutted smillie:

 

[West Ealing Bee]

50 wont be enough this year I reckon 53/54 probably. If we get to 45 we'll be doing well.

Just wondered what you base that on.

Considering one of the likely bottom four is Rotherham, who will have earned ten points more than they finish with meaning someone else will stay up, I reckon a team would need less than normal, not more.

 

[West Ealing Bee]

I've just done a small piece of research comparing the last five years tables at a similar time of the season, very difficult to be exact with cup ties etc.

We currently have 23 points and are bottom and the team fifth from bottom has 31.

The only time a team has needed more than 51 points to finish 20th was last season when the team one place above the drop zone got 52.

At this stage of the season, roughly, the team in 20th had 35 points, which was Bristol City, incidentally.

In each of the preceeding four season, 51 points would keep a team up and the team in 20th had between 29 and 31 points.

Which indicates to me 51 points will do the job, it's getting there that will be difficult.

 

[JTofBFC]

Just wondered what you base that on.

Considering one of the likely bottom four is Rotherham, who will have earned ten points more than they finish with meaning someone else will stay up, I reckon a team would need less than normal, not more.

I'm basing it on the fact that I think Orient and all the teams above them will get to 53/54 points based on current form and how many points they have already.

I actually think the current bottom 4 will be well adrift of 20th place and it wouldn't surprise me if 21st had 48 points or less and were a good 6 points below the team above. Orient only need 22 off 17 to get to 53 which I would think is well within their capabilities. Nobody else above has less than 33 already.

I would be more optimistic about our chances if we had shown ANY sign of a revival in the last month or so.

Not a single goal in the last nine away games hardly bodes well for the rest of the season and if we carry on the form we have shown in the last 12 games under Scott F we are scheduled to finish with 31 points (ie one point every two games).

 

[West Ealing Bee]

I'm basing it on the fact that I think Orient and all the teams above them will get to 53/54 points based on current form and how many points they have already.

I actually think the current bottom 4 will be well adrift of 20th place and it wouldn't surprise me if 21st had 48 points or less and were a good 6 points below the team above. Orient only need 22 off 17 to get to 53 which I would think is well within their capabilities. Nobody else above has less than 33 already.

I wouldn't disagree with your logic, especially the second bit , but football hardly ever works out like that.

Teams win and lose games they shouldn't from February onwards and normally someone collapses from midtable.

As my second post points out history suggests 51 points will finish 20th, and quite often the bottom five now are not the bottom five come May.

 

[JTofBFC]

I would put money on the fact that the bottom 4 now will be the eventual bottom 4 and also that they will be at least 5 points adrift of the team above.

 

[KD]

As my second post points out history suggests 51 points will finish 20th, and quite often the bottom five now are not the bottom five come May.

I'm scrabbling around for some reason to be optimistic and this is the only thing that has done it so far. If you have any time/ inclination would you put some details on here? :clutchingatstraws:

 

[West Ealing Bee]

Last season the bottom five about now were MK, Rotherham, Hartlepool, Swindon and Bristol City. Three went down and Walsall, who also dropped, were 19th.

In 04/05 the bottom five were Stockport, MK, Peterborough, Wrexham and Torquay. MK were 23rd and survived.

In 03/04 the bottom five about now were Wycombe, Notts County, Stockport, Chesterfield and Peterborough. The last three there survived and the teams that sropped were Grimsby in 19th and Rushden, who were 10th.

In 02/03 the five were Huddersfield, Cheltenham, Colchester, Mansfield and Barnsley. Colchester and Barnsley survived and Northampton, who were 19th, went down.

In 01/02 the five were Cambridge, Northampton, Notts County, Wrexham and Bury. Northampton and Notts County survived but Bournemouth dropped, who were 19th.

Not much to clutch at really but those at the bottom do change and no season in the last five has the bottom four at this stage all gone down. Plus if you're 19th you need to worry.

 

[FarnhamBee]

I would put money on the fact that the bottom 4 now will be the eventual bottom 4 and also that they will be at least 5 points adrift of the team above.

What odds are you offering / expecting?

 

[JTofBFC]

As you're in Statto mode, when was the last time that the team who were bottom at Christmas stayed up?

I doubt we will get to 41 points, let alone 51.

 

[Mick.C]

Cast your mind back one year and our last half dozen games were all against sides in the bottom half. The top sides get edgy (we know this only too well) around March, April time.

Blackpool and Hartlepool both bottom four when they came to us got draws against the odds. Bottom of the table sides start to play with less fear, gamble a bit more especially late on and get odd points here and there and the odd shock win.

I agree that on paper the bottom four at the moment look likely to end up there come May, but I think Northampton, Millwall, Chesterfield aren't safe for a long time yet.

Odd/shock results will happen but we have to gamble a bit and go for 3 points and not hang on for 1 like we did in the last 20 mins yesterday.

 

[Claire]

I dont think its going to happen

 

[RT]

Can't see us getting more than 17 points.

We won't get anything out of Blackpool, Scunthorpe, Bristol City, Oldham, Forest, Doncaster and Tranmere

The bottom 4 now will go down.

On a £1 accumulator, you'll get £2.06 back if they all do

 

[Edmundo]

I actually think the current bottom 4 will be well adrift of 20th place and it wouldn't surprise me if 21st had 48 points or less and were a good 6 points below the team above.

If the team in 21st place has 48 points, then 49 points is enough to stay up, surely?

 

[SKA BEE]

Ska bee if(and this is only a question so don't get excited)you ever post anything positive ever is there a chance your head would cave in?

rofl just a bit of fun arofl
must be me age

 

[sgaz]

I don't follow this i'm afraid, 51 points my nut-sack

We need to finish 5th from bottom, what's to say the 4 teams above us won't win anymore games

Unlikely i know, but that's the situation we're in. If that was the case we'd only need 3 more wins to be safe

 

[KD]

Last season the bottom five about now were MK, Rotherham, Hartlepool, Swindon and Bristol City. Three went down and Walsall, who also dropped, were 19th.

In 04/05 the bottom five were Stockport, MK, Peterborough, Wrexham and Torquay. MK were 23rd and survived.

In 03/04 the bottom five about now were Wycombe, Notts County, Stockport, Chesterfield and Peterborough. The last three there survived and the teams that sropped were Grimsby in 19th and Rushden, who were 10th.

In 02/03 the five were Huddersfield, Cheltenham, Colchester, Mansfield and Barnsley. Colchester and Barnsley survived and Northampton, who were 19th, went down.

In 01/02 the five were Cambridge, Northampton, Notts County, Wrexham and Bury. Northampton and Notts County survived but Bournemouth dropped, who were 19th.

Not much to clutch at really but those at the bottom do change and no season in the last five has the bottom four at this stage all gone down. Plus if you're 19th you need to worry.

Thanks WEB. More hopeful than I would have guessed.

 

[KD]

Odd/shock results will happen but we have to gamble a bit and go for 3 points and not hang on for 1 like we did in the last 20 mins yesterday.

That's the key to me. I would have preferred an all out attack for the three points and risk a loss compared to what we saw yesterday. There was hardly any more urgency in the last 20 minutes. Surely we are past the stage when one point a game is worth anything meaningful.

 

[JTofBFC]

If the team in 21st place has 48 points, then 49 points is enough to stay up, surely?

.............err no. Usually you have to get above 21st place to stay up.

If the team in 21st place has 48 points and the team in 20th has 54 points then you would still be in 21st place with 49 points. !!

 

[West Ealing Bee]

If the team in 21st place has 48 points, then 49 points is enough to stay up, surely?

.............err no. Usually you have to get above 21st place to stay up.

lol

If the team in 21st has 48 and you have 49 you are 20th and you stay up QED.

lol

 

[JTofBFC]

lol

If the team in 21st has 48 and you have 49 you are 20th and you stay up QED.

lol

errr no. You do not jump one place by getting an extra point. You have to overtake the team ahead of you !!! Have another think.

I'll draw a hypothetical diagram for you.

Ltn Orient Played 46 Points 54
Brentford Played 46 Points 48
Bournmouth Played 46 points 47
Rotherham Played 46 Points 44
Cheltenham Played 46 Points 42

Are you really trying to tell me that if the team in 21st (ie Brentford) had 49 points instead of 48 they would stay up.!!!

QED I think is the term you used !!! If correct grammar is soon to be a pre-requisite of posting on here, how about basic maths !

It's all hypothetical anyway as we will probably end up with less than 45.

 

[The H]

how about

Brentford Played 46 Points 49
Leyton Orient Played 46 Points 48
Bournmouth Played 46 points 47
Rotherham Played 46 Points 44
Cheltenham Played 46 Points 42

 

[JTofBFC]

how about

Brentford Played 46 Points 49
Leyton Orient Played 46 Points 48
Bournmouth Played 46 points 47
Rotherham Played 46 Points 44
Cheltenham Played 46 Points 42

Thats not hypothesis , it's hallucination.

 

[West Ealing Bee]

errr no. You do not jump one place by getting an extra point. You have to overtake the team ahead of you !!! Have another think.

I'll draw a hypothetical diagram for you.

Ltn Orient Played 46 Points 54
Brentford Played 46 Points 48
Bournmouth Played 46 points 47
Rotherham Played 46 Points 44
Cheltenham Played 46 Points 42

Are you really trying to tell me that if the team in 21st (ie Brentford) had 49 points instead of 48 they would stay up.!!!

QED I think is the term you used !!! If correct grammar is soon to be a pre-requisite of posting on here, how about basic maths !

It's all hypothetical anyway as we will probably end up with less than 45.

But in your example Orient would stay up with 49 points wouldn't they

Because the team in 21st have 48.

 

[JTofBFC]

But in your example Orient would stay up with 49 points wouldn't they

Because the team in 21st have 48.

In the example, Orient would need 49 to stay up but Brentford would need 55 !!

The point is that the team..................(oh whats the use), this is like going round in ever decreasing circles. Go back to post number 31 and start again.

To state the bleeding obvious, obviously if the team in 20th has 49 and the team in 21st has 48 then 49 is enough. That is not however what Edmundo kindly queried if you re-read post 31. If the team in 21st has 48 and the team in 20th has 54, then quite clearly an extra point for the team in 21st would make bugger all difference.

Please don't bother disputing this. I know what I'm on about, you apparantly also think you do , nobody else could I imagine give a stuff and meanwhile back in the real world even if we get twice as many points per game than we have got in Scott F's first 12 games we will end up with 39.

 

[Edmundo]

errr no. You do not jump one place by getting an extra point. You have to overtake the team ahead of you !!! Have another think.

I'll draw a hypothetical diagram for you.

Ltn Orient Played 46 Points 54
Brentford Played 46 Points 48
Bournmouth Played 46 points 47
Rotherham Played 46 Points 44
Cheltenham Played 46 Points 42

Are you really trying to tell me that if the team in 21st (ie Brentford) had 49 points instead of 48 they would stay up.!!!

No, because they would still be the team in 21st place. In your example, Orient only need 49 points (or 48 if their goal difference is superior) in order to stay up. The fact that they have more than that is immaterial. I stand by my assertion that you only need one more point than the team in 21st position in order to avoid relegation.

 

[Sweepy]

I understood the point JTofBFC was trying to make 24 hours ago. Clearly, nobody else wanted to.

 

[JTofBFC]

No, because they would still be the team in 21st place. In your example, Orient only need 49 points (or 48 if their goal difference is superior) in order to stay up. The fact that they have more than that is immaterial. I stand by my assertion that you only need one more point than the team in 21st position in order to avoid relegation.

You need to re-read your own post in 31 again. I stated that the current bottom 4 (includes Brentford) would be the bottom 4 at the end of the season and would be 6 points adrift of 20th place. You then contradicted me and suggested that one more point for us was enough to save us which obviously is incorrect if the team in 20th has 6 points more.

Life is too short to talk about this any more. If you still don't get it, then lets move on. I suspect we are talking at cross purposes anyway.

 

[Edmundo]

I can read it as often as you like, but it will still say that if the team in 21st place has 48 points, then 49 points is enough to stay up. And that's a simple fact, whether you like it or not.

We don't need more points than the team in 20th, just the team in 21st.

 

[Harry Butler]

Nice one.My mate lives in Dibden Perlieu and he's happy go lucky so its not the water.

 

[hubble]

if we lose say the next 4 games not mathematical but realistically we are down so at what point do the board tell scott he will not be manager next season and try and bring in a new manager toget things in place for the pre season like friendlys ect

 

[kullyrai]

this 50 points thing is total crap, all we need is 4 wins or so then do better then the teams below us. to stay up. the bottom 5 or so teams are so poor they probably wont reach 50 points anyway.

the only problem with this is that out of those bottom 5 or so teams, we ARE the bottom team and are doing worse than anyone else and right now.. even 40 could be a stretch if things dont turn around asap

 

[Gee Bee]

We need a minimum of 8 wins imho to get anywhere near safety and even then it proabaly won't be enough without 3 or more draws, so from 16 games remaining we need to not lose in probably 12 and win at least 8 of those. When you look at what we are achieveing currently with the slight improvement to the squad, it seems a big ask to expect that. I hope I'm proved wrong. :sad: