Survival Progress League

[Sting in the Tail]

This is very arbitrary and probably nonsense. But if 40 points is the benchmark to survive and I give each game a par point rating (or xp ?) to achieve this, it can be seen how we are doing compared to our rivals if the same match ratings apply.

Man City, Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Leicester. Lose both home and away

Arsenal, West Ham, Everton and Villa. Draw at Home, lose away,

Brighton, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Southampton, Newcastle, Norwich, Leeds, Watford and Wolves. Win at Home, draw away.



So if you think of it like a golf leaderboard these are the standings after the first round of matches.

Brentford +2
Brighton +2
Watford +2
Norwich even
Palace even
Wolves even
Leeds even
Soton even
Newcastle -1
Burnley -3

The need for every team would to finish the season at least even (40 points in reality)



I‘m only including ourselves and what I regard as relegation possibles (yes I know Arsenal aren’t in there but if they were we‘d only be level par).
I’ll update periodically.

 

[Banana]

Also being done here

 

[rebus]

Delete this thread. I’m not counting to 40 to survive.

 

[wanderer paul]

We'll get 46 points and finish around 12th ??

 

[bexleybee]

I'm optimistic, but this sort of view is useful I think. Gives us good perspective particularly when we have a tough set of fixtures back to back like in October

 

[epsombee2]

The 'par' system is a great way of tracking our real progress towards survival Looking forward to regular updates and +2 again today!

 

[badgerbee]

+10 Goal Difference swing compared to Norwich!!!! ?

 

[Downbeat Bee]

It will be extremely tough this year. 4 from first 2 games is a very good start.

 

[upnorthbee]

It will be extremely tough this year. 4 from first 2 games is a very good start.

Exactly, I am certainly counting to 40 points... I'm not foolish enough to think that it's not a pure battle for survival this season, it's going to be ridiculously tough. Fantastic point against Palace.

 

[Milton Keynes Bee]

Exactly, I am certainly counting to 40 points... I'm not foolish enough to think that it's not a pure battle for survival this season, it's going to be ridiculously tough. Fantastic point against Palace.

Gained 10% of the points needed from just over 5% of the games.

 

[pokerface]

40 by Easter Monday (April 18th). You heard it here first.

 

[Mr Cynical]

+10 Goal Difference swing compared to Norwich!!!! ?

Let's perhaps not mention that until we've played both Liverpool and Man City!

 

[Indian Bee]

+10 Goal Difference swing compared to Norwich!!!! ?

I saw Sky highlights just now of their match and some off their defending was poor. I appreciate they have had two extremely tough games against Liverpool and City but I am confident we wouldn't have conceded 8 goals against them. Early doors still but believe they will struggle as they seem easier to play against than teams will find against us.

 

[Mr Cynical]

I saw Sky highlights just now of their match and some off their defending was poor. I appreciate they have had two extremely tough games against Liverpool and City but I am confident we wouldn't have conceded 8 goals against them. Early doors still but believe they will struggle as they seem easier to play against than teams will find against us.

I don't know, despite defending pretty well today we still left a man unmarked in the box three times. Against City or Liverpool that's goals against straight away. I think we have to accept that we're likely to get a bit of a beating from at least one of these teams, that's just the reality of this division. It even happens to well established teams.

 

[grepo]

It will be extremely tough this year. 4 from first 2 games is a very good start.

11 from first 10 games and historically an 83% chance of avoiding relegation. Good start so far. How many of us would have predicted 4 points, top 8 and no goals conceded at this albeit very early stage.

 

[grepo]

I don't know, despite defending pretty well today we still left a man unmarked in the box three times. Against City or Liverpool that's goals against straight away. I think we have to accept that we're likely to get a bit of a beating from at least one of these teams, that's just the reality of this division. It even happens to well established teams.

Didn't CP beat three of the top 6 teams away from home last season. We may well see many unexpected upsets and not just the Gooners result this season. Have faith.

 

[Hullbee]

With 4 points we are ten percent of the way there

 

[Lewbeelou]

This is very arbitrary and probably nonsense. But if 40 points is the benchmark to survive and I give each game a par point rating (or xp ?) to achieve this, it can be seen how we are doing compared to our rivals if the same match ratings apply.

Man City, Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Leicester. Lose both home and away

Arsenal, West Ham, Everton and Villa. Draw at Home, lose away,

Brighton, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Southampton, Newcastle, Norwich, Leeds, Watford and Wolves. Win at Home, draw away.



So if you think of it like a golf leaderboard these are the standings after the first round of matches.

Brentford +2
Brighton +2
Watford +2
Norwich even
Palace even
Wolves even
Leeds even
Soton even
Newcastle -1
Burnley -3

The need for every team would to finish the season at least even (40 points in reality)



I‘m only including ourselves and what I regard as relegation possibles (yes I know Arsenal aren’t in there but if they were we‘d only be level par).
I’ll update periodically.

I’d swap Brighton with Everton, Brighton will be pushing for top eight this season, Everton could be a relegation candidate. IMO of course

 

[upnorthbee]

I’d swap Brighton with Everton, Brighton will be pushing for top eight this season, Everton could be a relegation candidate. IMO of course

Everton?? No way, I saw the highlights of them at Leeds, they should have won IMO.

 

[LingfieldBee]

I don't know, despite defending pretty well today we still left a man unmarked in the box three times. Against City or Liverpool that's goals against straight away. I think we have to accept that we're likely to get a bit of a beating from at least one of these teams, that's just the reality of this division. It even happens to well established teams.

Totally agree. In both games so far we've given away opportunities that better qaulity would have scored and punished us.

 

[Lewbeelou]

Everton?? No way, I saw the highlights of them at Leeds, they should have won IMO.

I could well be wrong, but I think if a key player or two - particularly c Lewin - is out for a while they will struggle. Fans divided over the manager, the siggurdsson issue and a pretty average squad, they’ll certainly be bottom half. We’ll see.

 

[Banana]

Just looking at Burnley's results last season to achieve 39 points

Home
4 Wins: Villa, CPFC, Sheff Utd, Wolves
6 Draws: Arsenal, Brighton, Everton, Fulham, Leicester, WBA
18 points

Away
6 Wins: Arsenal, CPFC, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool (!), Wolves
3 Draws: Villa, Brighton, WBA (all 0-0)
21 points

Of course last season was not played in front of fans....

Personally I suspect that our home form and our home support needs to be right up there.

The season before WHU ended up on 39 points (and 5th from bottom) viz:

Home
6 Wins: Bournemouth, Chelsea, Man Utd, Norwich, Southampton, Watford
4 Draws: Villa, Brighton, Everton, Sheff Utd
22 points

Away
4 Wins: Chelsea (!), Norwich, Southampton, Watford
5 Draws: Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Man Utd, Newcastle
17 points

 

[stevil]

Just looking at Burnley's results last season to achieve 39 points

Home
4 Wins: Villa, CPFC, Sheff Utd, Wolves
6 Draws: Arsenal, Brighton, Everton, Fulham, Leicester, WBA
18 points

Away
6 Wins: Arsenal, CPFC, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool (!), Wolves
3 Draws: Villa, Brighton, WBA (all 0-0)
21 points

Of course last season was not played in front of fans....

Personally I suspect that our home form and our home support needs to be right up there.

The season before WHU ended up on 39 points (and 5th from bottom) viz:

Home
6 Wins: Bournemouth, Chelsea, Man Utd, Norwich, Southampton, Watford
4 Draws: Villa, Brighton, Everton, Sheff Utd
22 points

Away
4 Wins: Chelsea (!), Norwich, Southampton, Watford
5 Draws: Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Man Utd, Newcastle
17 points

Broken down like that it looks eminently achievable. And I definitely think there'll be a few '(!)' games along the way...

 

[Banana]

Broken down like that it looks eminently achievable. And I definitely think there'll be a few '(!)' games along the way...

I think that there have to be! Luckily we already have "Arsenal (!)"

 

[stevil]

Luckily we already have "Arsenal (!)"

True enough!

 

[BFC1997]

40 points the target for survival.

If we beat the bottom 10 sides at home = 30 points.

If we draw with the bottom 10 sides away = 10 points.

That takes us to the total needed.

Obviously we won’t manage EXACTLY that - and there will be the odd defeat at home - but also hopefully the odd away win, so hopefully this balances out. But broken down like that this needs to be the minimum target going into those fixtures.

Anything we can get vs the top half is an added bonus, and we’ve started well with the win against Arsenal.

 

[BFC1997]

40 points the target for survival.

If we beat the bottom 10 sides at home = 30 points.

If we draw with the bottom 10 sides away = 10 points.

That takes us to the total needed.

Obviously we won’t manage EXACTLY that - and there will be the odd defeat at home - but also hopefully the odd away win, so hopefully this balances out. But broken down like that this needs to be the minimum target going into those fixtures.

Anything we can get vs the top half is an added bonus, and we’ve started well with the win against Arsenal.

The ten opponents (on paper) from the bottom half of the league that we MUST aim to beat at home and at least draw with away:

Watford
Southampton
Palace
Leeds
Wolves
Burnley
Newcastle
Norwich
Brighton
Villa

Any home defeats in there and we will need extra away wins or results against top half sides.

 

[kaebess]

I’m working on actuals not assumptions.

2 points a game, finish on 76 points, into Europe we go

 

[brentfordfc4ever]

I like this thread. I genuinely believe we will be in the mix near the bottom. I doubt we will be bottom three at any point, although I certainly think will be hoovering above with one eye looking back.

These clubs like Burnley, Brighton, Southampton, Newcastle all have very good players, they may not be superstars, but they know this league have played it a number of years.

It's quite arrogant to say, as newly promoted side, that we shouldn't be hoping for survival first.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[davewfilms]

We have not got promoted to just survive we are here to compete and thrive up the Bees

 

[brentfordfc4ever]

We have not got promoted to just survive we are here to compete and thrive up the Bees

That is true, although there has to be some reality too. Giving if Charlie Big b***ocks, not aimed at you by the way, may come back to bite in the ass.

I reckon powers at be are doing their own 40 points, then move on from there.... but hey.... what do I know lol

 

[Aussie Bee]

If you think of the Premier League at three tiers its a lot easier to be less worried about getting relegated.

We will get one or two floggings from the Northern powerhouses but will hold out own against the lesser lights like Newcastle, Watford and Norwich.

We will also get some nice results against teams like Southampton / Burnley / Wolves - Hopefully!

Not saying its going to be a piece of cake to stay up - but once you accept we will cop a few losses from the best and compete with the the rest I can see a positive outcome

 

[Judio1999]

There seems to be a big six pointer on Sep 11
Arsenal v Norwich

Will either team have scored a goal or got a point by then ??

 

[FlyBee]

I do think if we win 10 games this season we're safe as the draws will look after themselves. 1 win down. 9 to go from remaining 36 games.

 

[RAF_Patto]

There seems to be a big six pointer on Sep 11
Arsenal v Norwich

Will either team have scored a goal or got a point by then ??

Bees Up, Arsenal Down?

 

[ruislip bee]

That is true, although there has to be some reality too. Giving if Charlie Big b***ocks, not aimed at you by the way, may come back to bite in the ass.

I reckon powers at be are doing their own 40 points, then move on from there.... but hey.... what do I know lol

If they are/were I reckon we might be 2points down now. Just saying.....

 

[Hippobee]

11 from first 10 games and historically an 83% chance of avoiding relegation. Good start so far. How many of us would have predicted 4 points, top 8 and no goals conceded at this albeit very early stage.

Well as it turns out, the vast majority of GPG ers who voted on the other thread!

It is a very good start, but let's not get carried away. We played a poor Arsenal side and a Palace side that will be near the bottom come the end of the season. 40+ points is certainly achieveable, but giving the ball away and mistakes made in both the games so far will cost us goals/defeats against better teams later on.

We've got to find a way of creating more goalscoring chances, because the reality is we are going to concede in most games. IT and BM (who has been otherwise excellent so far) are also going to need to make the most of chances they get. IT has got to be hitting the target more. His all-action defending & effort is great, but £40m rated strikers need to score goals to win games.

The conundrum for TF is getting (i) The balance in midfield right between ball winners and creativity. (ii) Whether to stick with wing backs for all games - they are not going to bomb forward like they did last season, because it leaves us too exposed at the back. This is another reason we're not creating much, as Rico & Sergi will end up being more defensive players - already evidence of this.

I think TF has it right at the moment - priority 1 is not to concede, but at some point that balance will have to shift, certainly against the 'weaker' teams.

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

At the minute we’ve been brilliant. I don’t care what people say about arsenal, they still have some class players who are playing for an average manager. Palace also aren’t as bad as people make out. You can see how well drilled they have been under Hodgson and now playing ball under Viera (I don’t think they will be that low).

4 points 2 goals and none conceded after two is awesome and I didn’t think we would be sat on that many.

We also hit the post against arsenal and palace so our goal stats could be even higher. Yes palace missed a clear cut chance but so did teams in the championship. Agree the bigger sides will score them and more against us but that’s life when playing the big boys.

We are well drilled but lacking some creativity. Also our play IMO is too rushed resulting in too much turn over.

It’s going to be a great season.

 

[nick logan]

11 from first 10 games and historically an 83% chance of avoiding relegation. Good start so far. How many of us would have predicted 4 points, top 8 and no goals conceded at this albeit very early stage.

loads of us would have predicted 4 points , maybe not the 0 goals against

 

[I'll Bee Damned]

A little over 1 point per game to survive and feel we can achieve that if we continue to be solid whilst we find our feet.

As with all promoted teams, scoring goals will be critical to survival. Those couple of set piece chances against CP (and BMs dragged shot against the Arsenal when he got himself free) are the sort we have to start taking.

 

[grepo]

At the minute we’ve been brilliant. I don’t care what people say about arsenal, they still have some class players who are playing for an average manager. Palace also aren’t as bad as people make out. You can see how well drilled they have been under Hodgson and now playing ball under Viera (I don’t think they will be that low).

4 points 2 goals and none conceded after two is awesome and I didn’t think we would be sat on that many.

We also hit the post against arsenal and palace so our goal stats could be even higher. Yes palace missed a clear cut chance but so did teams in the championship. Agree the bigger sides will score them and more against us but that’s life when playing the big boys.

We are well drilled but lacking some creativity. Also our play IMO is too rushed resulting in too much turn over.

It’s going to be a great season.

A very exciting one for sure, with plenty of ups and downs. Hopefully, more of the former. Our two clean sheets so far bode well.

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

loads of us would have predicted 4 points , maybe not the 0 goals against

Still think the 4 puts us ahead of the curve.

Been a great start. The creativity worries me but the defensive shape is very encouraging

 

[mhead bee]

Can we change this to top 7 progress league please, survival league is too defeatist, small time and enjoying our moment in the sun which is what your MOTD pundits expect from us. We are better than that or should at least be aiming to be, it's insulting.

 

[Invipai]

Survival should be the target, but 13th counts as survival... Very good start, but we do need to be creating more chances. We're defending very well, but attacking needs addressing. Hopefully Jensen coming back will help there, as I think we're missing a player for that role who can play others in.

A very good start, but we do need another level IMO.

 

[marvelous007]

Still think the 4 puts us ahead of the curve.

Been a great start. The creativity worries me but the defensive shape is very encouraging

Bringing in Ajer is a massive signing for us.

 

[Sting in the Tail]

After 2 weeks

Brighton +2
Brentford +2
Watford +1
Soton +1
Leeds even
Wolves even
Norwich even
Newcastle -1
Palace -2
Burnley -3

 

[epsombee2]

Yep, that was my calculation too. It's a really good approach and shows the importance in particular of home wins against the most likely teams around us e.g. the draw against Palace was ok for us but bad for them . Norwich doing ok so far despite what the 'real' table says!

 

[bexleybee]

I like this perspective. Will be more meaningful after 10 games.

Even so, while Norwich are "on track" still, it must be a challenge to extract the positives mentally from the pre-International Break phase if they remain on zero points and close to double digit negative goal difference.

 

[epsombee2]

yes, there is that side of it too!

 

[Banana]

I like this perspective. Will be more meaningful after 10 games.

Even so, while Norwich are "on track" still, it must be a challenge to extract the positives mentally from the pre-International Break phase if they remain on zero points and close to double digit negative goal difference.

Indeed, fixture list has been kind to us.