Team vs Derby

[PJ]

Button

Odubajo Dean Tarkowski Craig

Douglas Toral

Judge Jota Smith

NP

Blimey. You want to drop Jake. One of our most consistent and reliable players imo. He's the least of our worries!

 

[ade211]

Not sure if this will work but according to Squawka, a facts data base, the rankings for our players can be found here.
http://www.squawka.com/football-pla.../10/2014#season#2#all-matches#defense#desc#90

If terms of the midfield the ranks are as follows,

Pritchard
Douglas
Judge
Odubajo
Jota


Pritchard is ranked first in defence, attack and possession. Jota is bottom for all three and for defence he is particularly weak. Jota is very popular and, recently, Pritchard has been criticised by some of us. Perhaps we are overestimating Jota's contribution and under estimating Pritchard's

Now the defence,

Dean
Craig
Tarkowski
McCormack
Bidwell

Of note is how low the performance of Bidwell is. His performace is rated as 2.07 compared to 7.15 for McCormack. Bidwell is popular with us but his performance this season has not been great compared to the other defenders. Food for thought.

http://www.squawka.com/football-pla.../10/2014#season#2#all-matches#defense#desc#90

Please note I am still figuring out how to use this data. So please be careful in using this as I could easily have got it wrong!

 

[jlove]

Actually, watching the extended highlights from Bolton, I though Jota was both the forward who looked most likely to score but also did some excellent defensive work supporting Bidwell. Maybe it was well edited...

 

[ade211]

Actually, watching the extended highlights from Bolton, I though Jota was both the forward who looked most likely to score but also did some excellent defensive work supporting Bidwell. Maybe it was well edited...

Good observation.

According to Squawka Douglas had quite a poor game compared to the other midfielders. Jota' played well but Pritchard stands out.

http://championship.squawka.com/bolton-wanderers-vs-brentford/25-10-2014/football-league-championship/matches

 

[jlove]

I think Pritchard has taken over Douglas' "unseen" work...

 

[tw2bee]

Blimey. You want to drop Jake. One of our most consistent and reliable players imo. He's the least of our worries!

I've been disappointed with Jake. He's done okay but would be willing to sacrifice him so that we can have TC JT and HD to play.

 

[The Pipe]

I've been disappointed with Jake. He's done okay but would be willing to sacrifice him so that we can have TC JT and HD to play.

Please say you have left out the fishing thingy

We have seen TC play at LB not a patch on Jake and by playing h at LB we end up with 2 right footed centre backs

Can you seriously imagine Craig going on lung busting runs down the wing and putting in a cross???

All about opinions I guess but I would hazard you are in a minority of one !!!

 

[4corners]

Button
Moses Tarky TC Bidders

Dougie
Toral Pritch
Judge
Gray Graham (hopefully)

If Graham flops then Smith to start. Gray netted all his goals with Luton in a 442. Currently he is lacking support although I think his battling and hold up is underrated. Would like to see a new formation without sacrificing the flowing football we have seen especially at GP.

 

[sonofabee]

I've been disappointed with Jake. He's done okay but would be willing to sacrifice him so that we can have TC JT and HD to play.

Jeez I've read it all, your village is missing an idiot.

 

[Doovster]

I've been disappointed with Jake. He's done okay but would be willing to sacrifice him so that we can have TC JT and HD to play.

I can't see any of them bombing down the left hand side throwing in crosses. Also TC has never convinced me as a left full back either?

 

[Wise old Bee]

Button
Moses Tarky Craig Bidwell
Douglas Toral
Gray Judge Jota
Big Nick

Subs: Lee, Dean, Pritchard, Dallas (if fit), Toumani, Betinho, Yennaris

Obviously I'm assuming Mac is out.

I also think Gray could be played in a wider role with NP grafting up front. Present striking arrangements are not working.

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

I've been disappointed with Jake. He's done okay but would be willing to sacrifice him so that we can have TC JT and HD to play.

Madness, pure madness. While we are at it lets play Button up top and Jotta at right back.

 

[JANORAK]

Quite a few of us seem to agree that no win in 3 = a bit of rotation is required to freshen things up! Personally I think we need to be more pragmatic away from home. Bolton picked up SIX bookings on Saturday, we, the away team, got NIL. Too many flair players?

I'd like to see a bit more steel in the middle of the park to help JD anyway & think Tebar should come back in (assuming AllyMac not available). This would enable Judgey to stay further forward & hopefully find his shooting boots. Toral has to start, which means sacrificing one of Jota/Pritchard, as well as Moses to RB or Sub.

That's probably more changes than will be made by MW, & if striking options increase by this Saturday, I"ll probably have a total rethink anyway.

 

[JCMcBee]

if we dont dont do a job on chris martin on saturday it wont matter what team we put out.

 

[Oceanbee]

I think Warbs will be going to Fulham today.....to check out both Fulham and Derby in the League Cup.
Might give him some clues about which team to play on Saturday, although teams do not always put out their best squads for this Cup, as the Championship is more important, when you consider what potentially is at stake.

Regarding our team, one of our biggest weaknesses seems to be that we don't seem to have anyone who can put in on target shots regularly from outside the penalty area. These opportunities seem to often fall to Judge who normally blazes over the bar or wide. We have seen other teams score against us with shots from outside the penalty area. So we always having to play deep into the other side's penalty area to try and create a scoring chance.
In the Championship, a one goal chance is so important. We need to get more shots in on target, and more of those need to come from outside the box.
Does anyone think we do have a reliable outside the penalty area goal scorer?

 

[Markybee]

if we dont dont do a job on chris martin on saturday it wont matter what team we put out.

He played for Swindon against us at The County Ground 2 years ago - and certainly didn't get a look in that day. Mind you, he does have a better team around him now.

 

[beeherenow]

I've been disappointed with Jake. He's done okay but would be willing to sacrifice him so that we can have TC JT and HD to play.

Step away from the crack pipe

 

[nick logan]

----------- Button
Moses *JT/HD* Craig Bidwell
---------Douglas Toral
Jota -----Judge--- Smith
---------- Gray

* sitting on fence with this selection !

 

[hanworthbee]

I'm going left wing..

button
Dean Craig
tarky
Moses jd toral judge bidwell
jota
gray

 

[ade211]

A someone else pointed out we are second worst in the Championship in terms of defensive errors leading to goals. Only Reading have a poorer record. In terms of chances created we are very similar to Derby. We are second from bottom in goals scored from set pieces. Our shooting accuracy puts us at 8th with 43% on target.

So we need to cut out our defensive errors and improve the number of goals we score from set pieces. So the team chosen just has to do that. Easy this football business!

 

[The Pipe]

Flaming hell Ade you had better have a word with Warbs to put him in the right track

Let's see how dies it go again??

Cut out defensive errors at one end and score more at the other, surprised nobody else has come up with this tactic !!

 

[PJ]

I'm going left wing..

button
Dean Craig
tarky
Moses jd toral judge bidwell
jota
gray

I'd like to see us play the 3 CBs away from home at some point.
At home rather see us more on the ftont foot and would go with above but 2 CBs, Gray and Jota either side of big Nick (unless loanee comes in)

 

[NorthamptonBee]

So far it seems that there has been a call to drop Dean, I get it but he doesn't deserve it, an idea about dropping the consistent Bidwell and a few calls/far too many calls for Big Nick. I hope Warbs doesn't read this thread.

 

[Gee Bee]

Button
Tarkowski Dean Craig Bidwell
Moses Toral Douglas Jota
Judge
Big Nick

Subs: Bonham, Yenarris, Pritchard, Tebar, Gray, Toumani, Dallas (if fit)

Won't happen. but have a feeling JT could have a bit of Callum Chambers about him and be able to play RB comfortably.

 

[Gee Bee]

So far it seems that there has been a call to drop Dean, I get it but he doesn't deserve it, an idea about dropping the consistent Bidwell and a few calls/far too many calls for Big Nick. I hope Warbs doesn't read this thread.

Apologies for Big Nick, but we have so few options and Gray coming off the bench with 30 or 20 to go may be useful with extra pace against tiring defenders.

 

[ade211]

Defensive errors are interesting. Craig has done two and Tarkowski four. Of thes both have had one each that lead to a goal. Dean and Bidwell have not committed any, and McCormack one which did not lead to a goal.

Turning to a comparison between Dean and Tarkowski is illuminating.

Dean has won 69% of his duels. Tarkowski has won 62%. Think this includes tackles and headers.

In terms of chances created Dean has averaged 0.15 per game and Tarkowski has managed 0.25 per game.

In terms of pass complete Dean has 73%. Tarkowski has 81%.

So Dean slightly better at winning duels, Tarkowski creates more chances and is a better passer than Dean. But Tarkowski is more error prone.

Guess those who like stats will quite like this. Those who don't will be critical of this approach. Well that's life.

 

[ade211]

Flaming hell Ade you had better have a word with Warbs to put him in the right track

Let's see how dies it go again??

Cut out defensive errors at one end and score more at the other, surprised nobody else has come up with this tactic !!

If you look at my next post Craig and Tarkowski are the chief offenders in terms of defensive error, and their errors have lead to one goal each. Only played 14 games so this could just be variation own to luck. Derby have not had any defensive errors.

And yes cut out the errors. I wonder with the help of match video and more detailed statistics this is what is happening on the training ground.

Thanks for your post . My post does look a bit silly I guess.

 

[NorthamptonBee]

Apologies for Big Nick, but we have so few options and Gray coming off the bench with 30 or 20 to go may be useful with extra pace against tiring defenders.

No need to apologise but he isn't an option.

 

[Gee Bee]

No need to apologise but he isn't an option.

You are almost certainly right, but Gray needs to be taken out of firing line otherwise it may harm in longer term. Smith isn't the answer either.

 

[wanderer paul]

Button
Tarkowski Dean Craig Bidwell
Moses Toral Douglas Jota
Judge
Big Nick

Subs: Bonham, Yenarris, Pritchard, Tebar, Gray, Toumani, Dallas (if fit)

Won't happen. but have a feeling JT could have a bit of Callum Chambers about him and be able to play RB comfortably.

Dean did play right back when he came on loan to us from Southampton. I wonder if MW will use this as a way of getting JT and TC back together in the middle?

I see Moses as the answer to the RB spot if Macca isn't fit.

Button

Moses Dean TC Bidwell

Pritchard Douglas Toral Judge
Jota
Gray

 

[nick logan]

You are almost certainly right, but Gray needs to be taken out of firing line otherwise it may harm in longer term. Smith isn't the answer either.

Nah , Andre will score saturday

 

[NorthamptonBee]

Defensive errors are interesting. Craig has done two and Tarkowski four. Of thes both have had one each that lead to a goal. Dean and Bidwell have not committed any, and McCormack one which did not lead to a goal. Turning to a comparison between Dean and Tarkowski is illuminating.

Dean has won 69% of his duels. Tarkowski has won 62%. Think this includes tackles and headers.

In terms of chances created Dean has averaged 0.15 per game and Tarkowski has managed 0.25 per game.

In terms of pass complete Dean has 73%. Tarkowski has 81%.

So Dean slightly better at winning duels, Tarkowski creates more chances and is a better passer than Dean. But Tarkowski is more error prone.

Guess those who like stats will quite like this. Those who don't will be critical of this approach. Well that's life.

So all those "mistakes" that Dean makes don't actually lead to goals then.

 

[NorthamptonBee]

You are almost certainly right, but Gray needs to be taken out of firing line otherwise it may harm in longer term. Smith isn't the answer either.

Having seen Dean put in a run and chipped crap cross that nearly floated in at Bolton, I'd start him over Big Nick, you are correct, Smith isn't the answer either.

 

[hatfieldbee]

Having seen Dean put in a run and chipped crap cross that nearly floated in at Bolton, I'd start him over Big Nick, you are correct, Smith isn't the answer either.

Harlee as an emergency lone striker? Hmmm - KOC mark 2 as a versatile player! Could do worse, and would bee one way of keeping him and Tarky happy!

 

[nick logan]

So all those "mistakes" that Dean makes don't actually lead to goals then.

97 % of people are supportive of HD , you are seeing things that are not there imo. A lot of people see TC and JT as the best pairing and i cant see that as being contentious.

 

[Balders Bee]

97 % of people are supportive of HD , you are seeing things that are not there imo. A lot of people see TC and JT as the best pairing and i cant see that as being contentious.

I think that's about a fair summary.

 

[Shirley Bee]

Dean did play right back when he came on loan to us from Southampton. I wonder if MW will use this as a way of getting JT and TC back together in the middle?

I see Moses as the answer to the RB spot if Macca isn't fit.

Button

Moses Dean TC Bidwell

Pritchard Douglas Toral Judge
Jota
Gray

I think that's close to a certainty, although Douglas would be the defensive 1 in a 4-1-4-1 with Jota out wide.

 

[NorthamptonBee]

97 % of people are supportive of HD , you are seeing things that are not there imo. A lot of people see TC and JT as the best pairing and i cant see that as being contentious.

But to strengthen their best pairing theory there has been a bag of bollox written about Harlee.

 

[Keighley Bee]

Dean did play right back when he came on loan to us from Southampton. I wonder if MW will use this as a way of getting JT and TC back together in the middle?

I see Moses as the answer to the RB spot if Macca isn't fit.

Button

Moses Dean TC Bidwell

Pritchard Douglas Toral Judge
Jota
Gray

I don't remember Dean at RB, though I am not disputing that, but I'm sure I recall him putting up a good show as holding midfielder at Rochdale?

 

[GP200]

I don't remember Dean at RB, though I am not disputing that, but I'm sure I recall him putting up a good show as holding midfielder at Rochdale?

.............yep............came on as a sub I think..............

 

[Boston Bee]

If you want to solve our current "problems": We have three brilliant centerbacks, McCormack is crocked, we don't score enough - then this is just what I've been thinking. I think we'd scare the hell out of people with this formation. We went all-in with attacking football and it worked last year, let's go for it again. This please!

--------------------Button--------------------

--------Tark-------Dean-------Craig--------

Moses----Douglas------Judge-----Bidwell

-----------------------Jota----------------------

-----------Big Nick----------Gray--------------

Something different, which I know won't happen. If a Gray isn't going to have a partner to help him he may as we'll be on the bench and come on for the last 20mins.

If we play our usual formation Toral in for Pritchard, Dallas in for Moses and Nick in for Gray.

 

[NorthamptonBee]

I don't remember Dean at RB, though I am not disputing that, but I'm sure I recall him putting up a good show as holding midfielder at Rochdale?

Correct, he looked good there that day, came on with 20 minutes?? to go and won everything, I don't recall the RB thing either. I agree with an earlier poster about thinking Tarks would piss that RB position.

 

[westendbee]

Defensive errors are interesting. Craig has done two and Tarkowski four. Of thes both have had one each that lead to a goal. Dean and Bidwell have not committed any, and McCormack one which did not lead to a goal.

trying to understand these stats, who would you say made the defensive error which led to Bolton's second goal?

The player who headed the ball to the advancing Bolton player?
The player who shepherded him towards the centre of the goal?
The player who missed the tackle?

I suspect stats can be used to support any argument...

 

[psg150]

Dallas up front?!

I think Dallas could play this role well. Very similar player to CD in my book. But untried..

 

[JCMcBee]

looks like whoever plays at the back might have their work cut out saturday

 

[Bridge Bee]

A serious test on Sat. Feel Derby are by far the best team in this league. Deserved to go up last season and have kept the squad in tact.

A tough week coming up.

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

A serious test on Sat. Feel Derby are by far the best team in this league. Deserved to go up last season and have kept the squad in tact.

A tough week coming up.

Beat Fulham easily tonight. Think we will need to be on the top of our game.

 

[chris1969]

Can Tarks or Dean play right back..........what do I know?

 

[Oldmead]

If you want to solve our current "problems": We have three brilliant centerbacks, McCormack is crocked, we don't score enough - then this is just what I've been thinking. I think we'd scare the hell out of people with this formation. We went all-in with attacking football and it worked last year, let's go for it again. This please!

You know...this just might work!

 

[ade211]

trying to understand these stats, who would you say made the defensive error which led to Bolton's second goal?

The player who headed the ball to the advancing Bolton player?
The player who shepherded him towards the centre of the goal?
The player who missed the tackle?

I suspect stats can be used to support any argument...

Yes good point. I cannot find on the site that provides the information how defensive errors are recorded. I have only just started using the site so suspect there are quite a few things that need more investigation. So if you or anyone else spots something post it so I can investigate it.

I believe though that the stats clubs use and the people employed to look at it do provide valuable insights. Even in the public domain there is now a wealth of stats that can be evaluated. I am pretty sure that given the owner's own business MB and his team have access to some high quality data.

If you get time it is worthwhile looking at http://www.squawka.com/comparison-matrix to see what is available.