That extra 5%-10%

[WARFIELD BEE]

Thinking about our recent seasons in the Championship an extra 5%-10% in terms of points would have got us promoted, so how do we get this extra (assuming we
don't get promoted via play offs)?

Better players/Bigger squad - Too expensive for our budjet
A version of Bielsa ball, involving fitter more durable players?
Something on the Barnsley theme (after all if they didn't play that way they would probably be bottom third at best.
Any other ideas?

 

[Untouchable]

(assuming we
don't get promoted via play offs)?

As this particular outcome won’t be known for another month, this thread is as premature as a virgin in a brothel.

 

[A Real Mysteron]

We are going up.

But hypothetically the answer is £80 million in parachute payments.
I thank you.

 

[The Pipe]

Thinking about our recent seasons in the Championship an extra 5%-10% in terms of points would have got us promoted, so how do we get this extra (assuming we
don't get promoted via play offs)?

Better players/Bigger squad - Too expensive for our budjet
A version of Bielsa ball, involving fitter more durable players?
Something on the Barnsley theme (after all if they didn't play that way they would probably be bottom third at best.
Any other ideas?

Yes: continue with our existing philosophy as it will achieve the success we want whilst operating in a prudent manner. Each new player we buy greater potential than in the past both for the B team and first team. Logic would suggest that our methodology will achieve success in due course.

The old saying of not throwing the baby out with the bath water would seem apposite in this regard

 

[Silly Hat]

“The difference between ordinary and extraordinary... is that little something extra”.

Dan (Waiting, 2005)

 

[SmiffyBee]

Fans back in the ground will help.
Would have helped....

Small margins like the odd penalty for us and not against us would have helped. But those decisions can't be helped.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

We are going up.

But hypothetically the answer is £80 million in parachute payments.
I thank you.

When I last checked you have to get promoted to get that, the discussion was how to achieve that as we keep getting close but not quite getting there.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Yes: continue with our existing philosophy as it will achieve the success we want whilst operating in a prudent manner. Each new player we buy greater potential than in the past both for the B team and first team. Logic would suggest that our methodology will achieve success in due course.

The old saying of not throwing the baby out with the bath water would seem apposite in this regard

At least one sensible reply.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Fans back in the ground will help.
Would have helped....

Small margins like the odd penalty for us and not against us would have helped. But those decisions can't be helped.

As all fans would be back together not sure what advantage they would give us.

 

[A Real Mysteron]

When I last checked you have to get promoted to get that, the discussion was how to achieve that as we keep getting close but not quite getting there.

It is the difference this season between us and the other teams.

 

[pompeybee]

As all fans would be back together not sure what advantage they would give us.

Because our fans are more supportive than those of any other club. In the world. Ever. Obviously. Lionel Road is renowned the world over as an intimidating hotbed of footballing passion.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Yes: continue with our existing philosophy as it will achieve the success we want whilst operating in a prudent manner. Each new player we buy greater potential than in the past both for the B team and first team. Logic would suggest that our methodology will achieve success in due course.

The old saying of not throwing the baby out with the bath water would seem apposite in this regard

Not suggesting throwing out the baby with the bathwater, just curious if there is any way we can get that little extra edge.

 

[Guildford Bee]

Fans back in the ground will help.
Would have helped....

Small margins like the odd penalty for us and not against us would have helped. But those decisions can't be helped.

To be fair, it’s not like we’ve had a shortage of penalties awarded to us this season

 

[GP200]

Fans back in the ground will help.
Would have helped....

Small margins like the odd penalty for us and not against us would have helped. But those decisions can't be helped.

..................thanks for your help..............

 

[SpiderBee]

Play better, cut out errors and gain more points. Simples!

 

[SmiffyBee]

As all fans would be back together not sure what advantage they would give us.

The advantage, compared to other teams, is our stadium would be more fuller.....more home fans = more pressure on the oppo and referees !
In my opinion.

 

[BFC1997]

Thinking about our recent seasons in the Championship an extra 5%-10% in terms of points would have got us promoted, so how do we get this extra (assuming we
don't get promoted via play offs)?

Better players/Bigger squad - Too expensive for our budjet
A version of Bielsa ball, involving fitter more durable players?
Something on the Barnsley theme (after all if they didn't play that way they would probably be bottom third at best.
Any other ideas?

Have more players, better players, fitter players, and better coaching to play better to win more matches?

I think you’ve cracked it!!!!

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Have more players, better players, fitter players, and better coaching to play better to win more matches?

I think you’ve cracked it!!!!

This part I said was not affordable, so we needed an alternative.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Has anyone any idea how many teams have been promoted who were not receiving parachute payments?

 

[Hippobee]

Has anyone any idea how many teams have been promoted who were not receiving parachute payments?

I don't, but Bournemouth, Wolves, Huddersfield & Blackpool would have all gone up since 2007 without them. At least two of those clubs though, spent a lot of money to get up.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

I don't, but Bournemouth, Wolves, Huddersfield & Blackpool would have all gone up since 2007 without them. At least two of those clubs though, spent a lot of money to get up.

Leeds one of them?

 

[JPince]

Leeds one of them?

Shef U would be one

 

[Shamrock_Bee]

Thinking about our recent seasons in the Championship an extra 5%-10% in terms of points would have got us promoted, so how do we get this extra (assuming we
don't get promoted via play offs)?

Better players/Bigger squad - Too expensive for our budjet
A version of Bielsa ball, involving fitter more durable players?
Something on the Barnsley theme (after all if they didn't play that way they would probably be bottom third at best.
Any other ideas?

Some fans take my view the wrong way but I think it's lack of depth and developing B team players at the same time as competing in a promotion race.

I understand our model and the financial restraints. Achieving play offs is still a remarkable achievement; if we get into them this season which we're pretty sure of now, it's two in a row.

Our model is therefore getting us closer; as despite competing year on year it would be the third time making the PO's since we got into the championship; apart from Warbs team we always fell short so progress 100%.

Last season was unique, we had a three month break and proved we're one of the best set ups in the championship with what we have. I'm just not sure that set up and model is geared for 46 games over a normal season with no unique circumstances that allows us a break; we were struggling pre Sheff Wed last season and this season like some others before it have run out of steam.

Maybe just maybe with our PO place safe early we're managing the squad in the back ground and might be able to find those percentages over a three game tournament. As for top 2 I don't ever see our model getting as close to that again to be honest; 2020 was a traumatic year well beyond football but those circumstances allowed us to have a genuine shot at top 2 as a three month break allowed the squad to rest, regroup, do a mini pre season and treat the return as a mini season.

 

[BFC1997]

For two seasons in a row we are going to finish the highest team in the pyramid to have never played in the Premier League. It’s just not enough to go up anymore.

 

[jlove]

I'd say that each season in the Championship we've had incremental improvements in the squad, funded primarily via player sales, but each season has also had doses of bad fortune to a greater or lesser extent. This season our bad fortune has been injuries, not just routine injuries but those needing longer-term recovery programmes. Off the top of my head, we've lost significant game time from players who would've been 'first 15' choices:
Baptiste
Jansson
Nørgaard
Roerslev
Marcondes
Henry
Dasilva
Dalsgaard
With 3 or 4 of those out at the same time. That's a serious hit on the squad and depth costs money.

 

[Simon C]

We are our well known for our statistical analysis which often gets used to show how a low scoring game like football has a huge slice of luck in its results which if you keep doing the right things should even out the longer the sample size. If you use seasons as your sample then it's only been two where we have been really challenging, if we keep to our principles then we may have more chance of ending up there this way than doing something radical.

 

[Hippobee]

For two seasons in a row we are going to finish the highest team in the pyramid to have never played in the Premier League. It’s just not enough to go up anymore.

Not quite sure of the relevance of this. Apart from ourselves in the championship, only Millwall, Luton, Preston, Bristol C, Rotherham and Wycombe haven't been in the PL before.

 

[AB]

We are our well known for our statistical analysis which often gets used to show how a low scoring game like football has a huge slice of luck in its results which if you keep doing the right things should even out the longer the sample size. If you use seasons as your sample then it's only been two where we have been really challenging, if we keep to our principles then we may have more chance of ending up there this way than doing something radical.

Last season, through an absolutely superhuman effort assisted by having a long midseason break we, with the excellence of Said and Ollie, went from being in contention for a play off place to tantalisingly close to top 2. This season, despite having lost both and having many key players out for long spells with injury, we’ve climbed to top spot briefly (last season we were never at the end of any game in top 2), still have a small chance of second and a tiny chance of missing the play offs. And our position seems disappointing. It might not seem it, but that’s a sign of progression to be feeling we’re significantly underperforming when nobody would have said that with 4 games to go last season.

 

[mhead bee]

Christ not another thread repeating the same old thing,

let’s assume we are going up until the pay offs are over then join this into the million other similar threads.

 

[The Pipe]

Was thinking when walking the dogs today that whilst the club are not yet in the Premier League we seem to have attracted some fans, mostly on the social media sites but a few on here, who seem to have the Premier League sense of entitlement and unless we are winning are actively criticising various players coaches etc which I find quite sad.

When talking to fans of other clubs in various leagues they are so impressed with our club, the way we operate, the way we play and the fact that every Summer we sell our best players for mega millions but then find replacements which continue to make us highly competitive. They refer to the journeymen at their own clubs who are earning substantial wages yet regularly their teams fail to perform.

It looks likely that for the second season running we are going to end up as the 3rd best team in the Championship whilst competing with clubs who are spending considerably more and since being in this league we have always finished in a top 10 position.

I have read posters on here who believe that failure to achieve promotion this season will result in a few years in the wilderness however maybe I am naive but I have absolute confidence in the abilities of our DoF’s to find players of sufficient capability to mount another attempt for promotion ( if unsuccessful this season.)

I see no reason why we should change anything we do, our policy works and improves season on season. If supporters of other clubs think that our philosophy and methodology should be the blue print for their clubs then we should be extremely proud and if promotion is not achieved this season then I am certain it is not far away

 

[TadB]

Thinking about our recent seasons in the Championship an extra 5%-10% in terms of points would have got us promoted, so how do we get this extra (assuming we
don't get promoted via play offs)?

Better players/Bigger squad - Too expensive for our budjet
A version of Bielsa ball, involving fitter more durable players?
Something on the Barnsley theme (after all if they didn't play that way they would probably be bottom third at best.
Any other ideas?

Perhaps if we use the same size squad, and a similar standard player, but play a normal season. The sort of season that is not truncated when you do not play two matches a week plus, for every week. That way the players would not suffer burn out, or be required to play with an injury before breaking down completely. By not carrying a large injury list there would be fewer kids on the Bench, indeed in a normal season there would not be a requirement to put 9 on the Bench. Whatever way one cares to look at it we have been severely handicapped this season, three weeks shorter close season than most other clubs, meaning less rest time for the players, and hardly anytime for the coaches on the training ground, and realistically a shortened transfer window for the DofF. To be honest, massive credit must be given to the players, and management to have brought us to this position with just 3 games left to play notwithstanding these listed difficulties. So well done to Thomas Frank, and well done to the players. Finally I also note that it is not over yet, I still await to hear a song from the fat lady.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Perhaps if we use the same size squad, and a similar standard player, but play a normal season. The sort of season that is not truncated when you do not play two matches a week plus, for every week. That way the players would not suffer burn out, or be required to play with an injury before breaking down completely. By not carrying a large injury list there would be fewer kids on the Bench, indeed in a normal season there would not be a requirement to put 9 on the Bench. Whatever way one cares to look at it we have been severely handicapped this season, three weeks shorter close season than most other clubs, meaning less rest time for the players, and hardly anytime for the coaches on the training ground, and realistically a shorten transfer window for the DofF. To be honest, massive credit must be given to the players, and management to have brought us to this position with just 3 games left to play notwithstanding these listed difficulties. So well done to Thomas Frank, and well done to the players. Finally I also note that it is not over yet, I still await to hear a song from the fat lady.

Most of this applies to other teams as well, apart from our play off involvement.

 

[TadB]

Most of this applies to other teams as well, apart from our play off involvement.

No it did not! The close season was very short for every one but probably about a third shorter for us even shorter for us than the losing semi finalists as we were in the final. In view of the effort and stress involved in getting to the last stage of the play offs we probably required more rest than most.

 

[TadB]

Have more players, better players, fitter players, and better coaching to play better to win more matches?

I think you’ve cracked it!!!!

All that costs money, money that we do not have please read post 30 for explanation!

 

[Invipai]

I don't think we're at the point where we should be looking to integrate other teams models. That usually indicates that they're better or that your own philosophy is lacking. Barnsley's model was always going to result in them being quite innovative and fresh, but they are still overall as a club in a worse and less stable position than us (at least for the time being).

I've said this elsewhere, we're doing everything that we can do to get promoted. That isn't guaranteed and will never be guaranteed, but all we can do is just keep up with the process and hopefully it will land in promotion sooner rather than later.

Us not going up isn't an instant failure IMO, I think there are many factors to us not getting a top two spot. They mainly are:
- Injuries to key players in our system.
- Players not being as good as the ones we had last year (primarily the wide attackers).
- Fatigue from having a truncated season after having the shortest summer break compared with any other club (weeks shorter than most).
- And the fact that Watford, Bournemouth and Norwich were all very well positioned when they came down and two of those have eventually been too much for the league with the players they have. None of those who came down were in a weak position and you suspected all would do well this year.

There is a 25% chance that we'll go up this year. If we don't then we'll lose Toney, Henry and DaSilva and then look to 'go again', but with the impact of Covid there won't be many teams who will be making a strong push. We could be pretty well placed again to have a season like this one, just with hopefully a bit more fluency in our side.

 

[upnorthbee]

The model works , amazingly well....

One thing I’d say about the teams that have been promoted without parachute payments, there’s often been a hell of a lot of momentum (fans helped) luck (lack of injuries) and they’ve generally had quite an eccentric manager... sometimes that extra 5-10% can be found from that stubborn, weirdo manager that can inspire players.

Weirdos in recent years were at Blackpool, Huddersfield , Sheff Utd (to a certain extent) and Leeds. All very memorable, in some cases one off campaigns. I believe Huddersfield got promoted with a negative goal difference? Talk about luck.

I don’t think we change anything, we’re massively punching above our weight as it is, we’ll go up eventually, if it’s not this season probably will be in the next 5 years. I have noticed our fans have lost their patience mind, and I reckon the Championship is an extremely enjoyable level anyway.

 

[JANORAK]

7 (seven) defeats has been top, top class. It’s the draws that have stopped us getting to the very top, this season. I think only Millwall have had more. In itself, I accept that a draw is better than a defeat, but maybe we need to concentrate even more on defending in our preparation. Drills and drills and drills. A more practical and pragmatic flexibility during games. For example, if we take a lead, but it becomes clear our free-flowing style isn’t going to blow the opposition away, then we put the shutters up and don’t let the b*ggers equalise! An alien concept at BFC in recent seasons, I appreciate, but it might just realise that 5 -10%.

 

[Sandybee]

7 (seven) defeats has been top, top class. It’s the draws that have stopped us getting to the very top, this season. I think only Millwall have had more. In itself, I accept that a draw is better than a defeat, but maybe we need to concentrate even more on defending in our preparation. Drills and drills and drills. A more practical and pragmatic flexibility during games. For example, if we take a lead, but it becomes clear our free-flowing style isn’t going to blow the opposition away, then we put the shutters up and don’t let the b*ggers equalise! An alien concept at BFC in recent seasons, I appreciate, but it might just realise that 5 -10%.

10% is 8 points which is 4 wins instead of 4 draws. We drew with Blackburn at home by our own decisions ref subs. We were unlucky against Norwich as they equalised late on, as did Swansea both matches at home, and in my opinion we sat back too deep. We drew away to Watford though we outplayed them in the first half and earned a draw but could have been a win and we did enough to beat Cardiff recently but didn’t. I therefore don’t think we have to fix anything much because it ain’t broken. We may lose 2-3 players for good money, but we always do, and we replace them with better players usually! Let the others do the worrying!

 

[I'll Bee Damned]

Was thinking when walking the dogs today that whilst the club are not yet in the Premier League we seem to have attracted some fans, mostly on the social media sites but a few on here, who seem to have the Premier League sense of entitlement and unless we are winning are actively criticising various players coaches etc which I find quite sad.

When talking to fans of other clubs in various leagues they are so impressed with our club, the way we operate, the way we play and the fact that every Summer we sell our best players for mega millions but then find replacements which continue to make us highly competitive. They refer to the journeymen at their own clubs who are earning substantial wages yet regularly their teams fail to perform.

It looks likely that for the second season running we are going to end up as the 3rd best team in the Championship whilst competing with clubs who are spending considerably more and since being in this league we have always finished in a top 10 position.

I have read posters on here who believe that failure to achieve promotion this season will result in a few years in the wilderness however maybe I am naive but I have absolute confidence in the abilities of our DoF’s to find players of sufficient capability to mount another attempt for promotion ( if unsuccessful this season.)

I see no reason why we should change anything we do, our policy works and improves season on season. If supporters of other clubs think that our philosophy and methodology should be the blue print for their clubs then we should be extremely proud and if promotion is not achieved this season then I am certain it is not far away

I agree with the majority of your post Mr P, I generally agree with most of your other contributions too & you're probably not the poster to take issue with on this matter. MB wants, in fact needs, to get us in the Premier League. If that is our goal then we need to be single minded and not readily accept failure to do so. There is a difference between "entitlement" and " wanting better".

We have come a million miles from depressing Tuesdays in Hartlepool, Doncaster, Bury and elsewhere (I've done my share of those) and am immensely proud to be following this wonderfully run club. If we want to go up though we can't keep looking back and saying " look how far we have come" because that gives an excuse to fail. We need to be absolutely focused on the goal and hold ourselves to account if we fall short. I don't mean sackings or wholesale changes but learn, evolve and, most of all, not accept failure because "at least we aren't playing Grimsby Town".

 

[mhead bee]

Perhaps if we use the same size squad, and a similar standard player, but play a normal season. The sort of season that is not truncated when you do not play two matches a week plus, for every week. That way the players would not suffer burn out,

Lets make sure we bom out of all cup competitions too at the first hurdle and hit the ignore button when the moaners start on about how important a cup run is, lets face it they are probably the same people moaning about about us "bottling it" now.

 

[AB]

7 (seven) defeats has been top, top class. It’s the draws that have stopped us getting to the very top, this season. I think only Millwall have had more. In itself, I accept that a draw is better than a defeat, but maybe we need to concentrate even more on defending in our preparation. Drills and drills and drills. A more practical and pragmatic flexibility during games. For example, if we take a lead, but it becomes clear our free-flowing style isn’t going to blow the opposition away, then we put the shutters up and don’t let the b*ggers equalise! An alien concept at BFC in recent seasons, I appreciate, but it might just realise that 5 -10%.

Last season the problem was too many defeats. We had a whole bunch of 1-0 losses where even with our exceptional attacking players we didn’t have the wherewithal to break down teams hitting us on the break or with an absolute fluke and parking the bus otherwise. This season we’ve had a few too many draws but many have been late equalisers, often highly fortuitous (eg Norwich at home) or downright illegal (Swansea!), in games we were doing well in. Arguably the problem has been not being able to see out wins more than being unexciting in attack. We’ve also come from behind to win a lot, which again points to us being stronger in attack and mentality than we give the team credit for.

Because we’ve missed out on top 2 and lacked Said’s swashbuckling it seems like we’re lacklustre but we’ve developed, in great part we’ve addressed the systemic failings of last season and not had to rely on individual brilliance/opposition error as much.

As a club, we’re focused on a long term view more than microscopically on individual games so that does mean we aren’t set up to make big changes in game or game to game. That is a feature, not a bug. Which is why we’re in third and feel a bit disappointed whereas at the same point last season we were 3rd/4th but exhilarated by the charge and ultimately disappointed. I feel despite the absence of Rico, Josh and Henrik, nearly a third of our first choice outfield, we’re ready to go up a gear in the last lap, whereas last season we topped out two games early and didn’t have anything new to offer right at the end.

 

[JANORAK]

10% is 8 points which is 4 wins instead of 4 draws.
Let the others do the worrying!

I’m not disagreeing, just suggesting a tweak to achieve the 5-10%, maybe a bit sooner than by natural evolution. We’ve been playing this way for 8 or 9 years now. I love Championship football, but what if each season continues to throw up 2 teams better than us? Is the philosophy absolutely set in stone?
If not, how long do we persevere with it?

 

[TadB]

I’m not disagreeing, just suggesting a tweak to achieve the 5-10%, maybe a bit sooner than by natural evolution. We’ve been playing this way for 8 or 9 years now. I love Championship football, but what if each season continues to throw up 2 teams better than us? Is the philosophy absolutely set in stone?
If not, how long do we persevere with it?

Well should we continue as we have done for the past 8/9 years then we will continue to improve, and you will get your tweak!

 

[TadB]

I agree with the majority of your post Mr P, I generally agree with most of your other contributions too & you're probably not the poster to take issue with on this matter. MB wants, in fact needs, to get us in the Premier League. If that is our goal then we need to be single minded and not readily accept failure to do so. There is a difference between "entitlement" and " wanting better".

We have come a million miles from depressing Tuesdays in Hartlepool, Doncaster, Bury and elsewhere (I've done my share of those) and am immensely proud to be following this wonderfully run club. If we want to go up though we can't keep looking back and saying " look how far we have come" because that gives an excuse to fail. We need to be absolutely focused on the goal and hold ourselves to account if we fall short. I don't mean sackings or wholesale changes but learn, evolve and, most of all, not accept failure because "at least we aren't playing Grimsby Town".

I must be deluding myself as it appears to me that over the past 8/9 years we have been evolving, and over those years I have not noticed any acceptance of failure. What I have noticed is an increasing impatience by many fans, understandable perhaps, however, unnecessary because slowly steadily we are progressing to the Premiership whilst developing a superbly run club that is fast becoming the envy of the football industry.

 

[AB]

I must be deluding myself as it appears to me that over the past 8/9 years we have been evolving, and over those years I have not noticed any acceptance of failure. What I have noticed is an increasing impatience by many fans, understandable perhaps, however, unnecessary because slowly steadily we are progressing to the Premiership whilst developing a superbly run club that is fast becoming the envy of the football industry.

I think this season and last season’s teams would have won automatic promotion in 14-15 and if you take out loanees the BFC owned squads have improved steadily and noticeably for a decade. Doing so while also selling major players every season is the 5-10% improvement. If we could manage without such sales we’d advance further and faster but it isn’t my money and I’m not the one who’d be taking my personal loss each year from £10m to £30m.

 

[wadbee]

Suggest the introduction of VAR in the Championship may help us as a team that looks to play football and
not revert to the dark arts of several of our recent opponents. As one of the 'nicer behaved' teams I would
expect a plus factor to be gained over the course of a full season. Think TF was bemoaning the lack of VAR in the
Play Offs and last couple of league games last season. Thats not to say that I personally think VAR is doing anything
for football in general, because I don't.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

10% is 8 points which is 4 wins instead of 4 draws. We drew with Blackburn at home by our own decisions ref subs. We were unlucky against Norwich as they equalised late on, as did Swansea both matches at home, and in my opinion we sat back too deep. We drew away to Watford though we outplayed them in the first half and earned a draw but could have been a win and we did enough to beat Cardiff recently but didn’t. I therefore don’t think we have to fix anything much because it ain’t broken. We may lose 2-3 players for good money, but we always do, and we replace them with better players usually! Let the others do the worrying!

These issues will always be there, bad referee, unforced mistakes, bad substitutions etc. its football and affects all teams.