Rob-BEE
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xG
Yeah the Ivan one is another good example. I'm guessing that if he missed his kick completely it wouldn't have registered as an xG chance (even though it clearly was a great chance!)
xG
- Thread starter Thomas Bathurst
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xG
Thanks for this @GABS Seems weird that we have scored five more than we "should" on his xG (+3 on infogol) but still a point and a place lower than we "might" be, but that's obviously the big Man U and Leeds margins. 10 pts is probably where a neutral judge would have us, and the stats generally bear out what the naked eyes (or at least mine) say... Bournemouth have been lucky with their wins, Man U too. Villa under Stevie Me look decidedly average. Liverpool have been better than their points to date. Looking forward, will these revert to norm? What happens to a Potter-less Brighton? Can Mitrovic keep Fulham up single-handedly? Who will score Leicester and Everton out of trouble? As for Forest, who knows?
Really fascinating season ahead.
Really fascinating season ahead.
GABS
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AB
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xG
I think on xG we should have beaten Palace and Everton, lost to Leicester and drawn with Leeds. The outperforming of xG on goals scored comes from the Leeds and Man U games (TF actually said immediately after Man U it wasn’t a 4-0 and we should really have had a couple of those goals in the first half of the home game last season- pure xG comments). The different distribution of results but overall even after only 6 games shows how xG is more of a long term measure and one which in individual games is tempered by luck and randomness.
I wonder whether if we’d had the xG results we (as fans) would have been feeling as positive as now because after Leicester we’d have not had the come back and felt more like after losing at Fulham, a narrower win against Man U wouldn’t have been seen as so huge, Palace and Everton are a bit meh, and drawing against Leeds might have been a bit worryingly high scoring against another meh team.
xG
Attack: Non penalty xG is up by 0.27
Defence: Non penalty xG is down by 0.24
GABS
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jlove
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jlove
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jlove
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Rob-BEE
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xG
For anyone interested, we are apparently 7th in the xG table with 5 wins out of 7 so far. If nothing else, it shows we're playing ok, just not taking our chances (which tbf is pretty obvious from just watching our games!).
www.football365.com
Chelsea retain perfect record with Man City to top only Premier League table that really matters...
Goals are great, but what's even better than actual goals? Expected goals, obvs. And, according to xG, Chelsea are brilliant - they should've won every game this season. Here's the full xG table...
www.football365.com
xG
Yes, reassuring for those like me who worry we will be dragged into a relegation battle every time anyone below us wins a game. I think it's probably explained largely by the absence of Toney and Raya who kept us at or around our xG last season (if my memory serves we finished close to our expected points total). Hopefully Flekken settles down as he gets used to the Premier League and Wissa returns to the brilliant finisher of the last two seasons.For anyone interested, we are apparently 7th in the xG table with 5 wins out of 7 so far. If nothing else, it shows we're playing ok, just not taking our chances (which tbf is pretty obvious from just watching our games!).
Chelsea retain perfect record with Man City to top only Premier League table that really matters...
Goals are great, but what's even better than actual goals? Expected goals, obvs. And, according to xG, Chelsea are brilliant - they should've won every game this season. Here's the full xG table...
xG
Yep. Makes sense. In a similar position in the Justice Table too, with currently available players onlyFor anyone interested, we are apparently 7th in the xG table with 5 wins out of 7 so far. If nothing else, it shows we're playing ok, just not taking our chances (which tbf is pretty obvious from just watching our games!).
Chelsea retain perfect record with Man City to top only Premier League table that really matters...
Goals are great, but what's even better than actual goals? Expected goals, obvs. And, according to xG, Chelsea are brilliant - they should've won every game this season. Here's the full xG table...
detours
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xG
Firstly, that's not true:
And secondly, looking at the highlights 6-1 did flatter them. Every shot Villa had, however difficult, seemed to fly in.
The final three Villa goals were 0.10, 0.05, and 0.03 xg respectively. What point are you trying to make here?
xG
Depends who is interpreting these fantasy goals. The football365 numbers quoted on this thread award the game to Brighton by 1.7 to 1.6. My point is that, in the real world, results and league tables are based on goals actually scored, not expected.
nick logan
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xG
We all know that , xg is a an important performance indicator for the bedwetters who think we are in trouble
AB
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xG
The point is it’s a good long run measure of actual performance levels and what if anything needs tweaking. Brighton won’t have reacted to that humping by going “oh noes, we are deeply terrible and need to change everything, bin everyone off and start again”. So it is just a bad result from a team that’s fundamentally a good one and which will almost certainly end up challenging again at a similar level to Villa.
Even at the end of a season while an overperforming team may get the real life reward of a title or trophy the ones who have underperformed can use it sensibly. That’s part of why despite finishing well behind Norwich in 2021 we always looked a much better team the following season. Particularly as their overperformance relied heavily on a couple of players who were consistently better at scoring/preventing than players on average.
JosephG764
Member
xG
For anyone interested, we are apparently 7th in the xG table with 5 wins out of 7 so far. If nothing else, it shows we're playing ok, just not taking our chances (which tbf is pretty obvious from just watching our games!).
Chelsea retain perfect record with Man City to top only Premier League table that really matters...
Goals are great, but what's even better than actual goals? Expected goals, obvs. And, according to xG, Chelsea are brilliant - they should've won every game this season. Here's the full xG table...
Weird that they don't count draws. Makes it misleading.
JosephG764
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xG
But which one (actual or expected) is more predictive of what will happen in the future, over the long term?
xG
Really? I never knew this!
I do however that football has is incredibly lucky sport due to its low scoring outcomes. So there is probably a better way of measuring "performance" rather than relying on how many times the ball ends up in the onion bag
I'm actually quite surprised that there are what are clearly long-term Brentford fans that don't understand this yet.
detours
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xG
Yes I realise there is variation between who is producing the numbers but it's usually by a small margin – I've looked at a few and not seen Brighton "winning" (so to speak) the xg vs Villa anywhere.
Variation between who's doing the xg aside, we can hopefully agree it was a tighter game than the scoreline might suggest.
xG
I disagree.
I ruthlessly ignore the complete rank amateur at "The xG Philosophy" because of this. Not only for trying to rip off our owner but also because he admitted that his own xG was completely changed materially when reviewed by those at Smartodds that knew what they were talking about.
JosephG764
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xG
The ones that come from Smartodds. The £100m+ invested in BFC suggests that they are reliable.
538 was close I am told. But that's gone now.
JosephG764
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xG
Yes, of course, I guess I was referring to those out on the internet for public view. Some will be more reliable than others.
Nate Silver will probably keep his models going so may pop up somewhere. His xg models were not that different to many of those out there (such as Understat and even xg philosophy).
xG
Yes but. There is no "juice" in this game anymore. So you cannot rely on w***ers like xg philosophy.
You or I could come up with a reasonable xG. But to actually have it mean anything.....
Rob-BEE
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Lionel Bart-At
formerly known as 'heavywoollenbee'
xG
I'm not a big student of it, so shouldn't comment directly on xG. However, I would question the assertion that "we're playing ok, just not taking our chances (which tbf is pretty obvious from just watching our games!)". I will admit to not having watched either Arsenal at home or Forest away (where reports suggest improved performance), but against Bournemouth and Everton we were far from playing OK, in my view. In fact I found the performances quite worrying. So if xG suggests this conclusion in these two games (especially the latter), I would seriously question its validity.For anyone interested, we are apparently 7th in the xG table with 5 wins out of 7 so far. If nothing else, it shows we're playing ok, just not taking our chances (which tbf is pretty obvious from just watching our games!).
Chelsea retain perfect record with Man City to top only Premier League table that really matters...
Goals are great, but what's even better than actual goals? Expected goals, obvs. And, according to xG, Chelsea are brilliant - they should've won every game this season. Here's the full xG table...
xG
Even having given away £105m later, and owning a Premier League club? Rightio.
Rob-BEE
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xG
Yeah I take your point. I suppose "playing well" and "creating good chances" are not always the same thing, especially from a fan's perspective.
Although in the case of the Everton game we were just terrible which was also reflected in the xG!
Lionel Bart-At
formerly known as 'heavywoollenbee'
xG
"In these two games". Having already admitted to not really understanding xG, my comment was directed at the conclusions drawn from it, in these instances, rather than the metric itself.
bexleybee
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xG
I like it but I have to question the validity of a model where its impossible to draw on xG. I mean I guess all things are equal in this model but it feels a bit flawed. Any games where the xG is within 10% of eachother, it should be considered an xG draw or something like that. This isnt rugby or cricket lolFor anyone interested, we are apparently 7th in the xG table with 5 wins out of 7 so far. If nothing else, it shows we're playing ok, just not taking our chances (which tbf is pretty obvious from just watching our games!).
Chelsea retain perfect record with Man City to top only Premier League table that really matters...
Goals are great, but what's even better than actual goals? Expected goals, obvs. And, according to xG, Chelsea are brilliant - they should've won every game this season. Here's the full xG table...
xG
Xg does make sense and you can see how it would help target your tactics and play
Low Xg - needs improvement in making chances. Team may get away with it in the short term but eventually the goals will dry up
High Xg and lower actual goals - making chances but need to finish better. For Chelsea - go spend £100m on a striker and expect to move up the table. For Brentford - have we got a replacement for Toney for within our relatively low budget?
High Xg and matching goals - you are taking your chances and with a low Xa you are going to be in the top 6, if not winning it
I’m sure we all know this already
Low Xg - needs improvement in making chances. Team may get away with it in the short term but eventually the goals will dry up
High Xg and lower actual goals - making chances but need to finish better. For Chelsea - go spend £100m on a striker and expect to move up the table. For Brentford - have we got a replacement for Toney for within our relatively low budget?
High Xg and matching goals - you are taking your chances and with a low Xa you are going to be in the top 6, if not winning it
I’m sure we all know this already