Mark Warburton

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Mark Warburton

Balders Bee said:
Can't see that they were that wrong tbh. Saving Forshaw and Mac, time for Logan and Dallas. Didn't see the imbalance. Farid harried well for a knackered Trotta. They are a decent side and always looked dangerous. Job done well.
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Farid should have come on for Marcelo with 20 rather than 10 minutes to go. Once he was on pitch with his fresh legs and energy Mk Dons looked far less threatening and we had an additional threat of our own. We have a squad and need to use it over a 46 game season so he has to rotate players when he gets an opportunity. Grigg and Savile have an enforced rest against Posh, I wouldn't be surprised if Warbs makes one more change albeit he knows they have weekend off after this game so may just bring in Diagourga or Reeves for Savile.
 

Mark Warburton

We seem to be much more aggressive since Rosler left. I like it. :box:
 

Mark Warburton

I came on here expecting to find comments about MW being on 5Live earlier. He spoke very well, emphasised the importance of continuity, spoke of the need for the young players coming through the academy to be given an opportunity (though to me that seems to be getting harder all the time with the quality of players we are bringing in), and left a teaser regarding the stature of some of the managers that applied for the position when Uwe left.
 

Mark Warburton

Yep, spoke very well. You could tell that the host (Mark Chapman) found him very interesting and invited him back in the future to talk about NextGen and youth development.

He was on around 8.45ish for anyone who wants to find it on iPlayer.
 

Mark Warburton

Keighley Bee said:
left a teaser regarding the stature of some of the managers that applied for the position when Uwe left.
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Stop teasing us. What did he say?
 

Mark Warburton

Decent listen, be interested to know who applied for the job!?
 

Mark Warburton

Not bothered who applied for job, MW doing a superb job so far, much more positive than Uwe, win one lose one is better than two draws and at last
we are starting to score the goals we thought we were capable of, a more positive approach would have seen us up last year IMO and also that of
several Bees fans I know, however that's in the past lets hope we can put that right this year.
 

Mark Warburton

Would be interesting to know who applied. Maybe a future TITS scoop?

I think we got the right man anyway though!
 

Mark Warburton

Impressed by his comments after the Milton Keynes game that there were lessons to learn from it - there clearly were.
 

Mark Warburton

WARFIELD BEE said:
Not bothered who applied for job, MW doing a superb job so far, much more positive than Uwe, win one lose one is better than two draws and at last
we are starting to score the goals we thought we were capable of, a more positive approach would have seen us up last year IMO and also that of
several Bees fans I know, however that's in the past lets hope we can put that right this year.
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While I agree with all the above, I'm beginning to think it may have been a blessing in disguise (a hell of a disguise!!) because if we go up this year I think we'll be on a much stronger foundation than we would have been last year, and therefore more likely to stay there.

I wouldn't swap with Yeovil right now. :)
 

Mark Warburton

Great interview on 5Live.

I love what we're doing and have full confidence in MW and the team - times are good - but there's a hell of a long way to go. Nothing, not even Play Offs, is anywhere near certain.

What is for certain is that unless we do a Reading Circa 2009 and achieve over 100 points or top spot (in which case, to quote a BFC player, it's "life changing" bonus money) the run will come to an end at some point (for what it's worth I think it'll be Port Vale who burst our bubble) and it's how the team picks themselves up that matters. Twitter is alight with "Top of the League" hysteria. That's great, but there's the small matter of 23 or so something games to go.

(I hope, come early May, this message is regarded as pure b****K).

Ps GREAT to see the mngmt team at the Globe with fans.
 
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Mark Warburton

Ealing Bee said:
I heard that MB wasn't at the Lionel Road Planning meeting because he was trying to persuade UR to stay at GP.

Does anyone know whether there's anything in this?
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I believed that as it was the rumour going around on the night but I've since been informed by a very reliable source that Matthew wouldn't have been there in the flesh anyway as not his thing.
 

Mark Warburton

Mark Warburton

thenightfly said:
Great interview on 5Live.

I love what we're doing and have full confidence in MW and the team - times are good - but there's a hell of a long way to go. Nothing, not even Play Offs, is anywhere near certain.

What is for certain is that unless we do a Reading Circa 200
9 and achieve over 100 points or top spot (in which case, to quote a BFC player, it's "life changing" bonus money) the run will come to an end at some point (for what it's worth I think it'll be Port Vale who burst our bubble) and it's how the team
picks themselves up that matters. Twitter is alight with "Top of the League" hysteria. That's great, but there's the small matter of 23 or so something games to go.

(I hope, come early May, this message is regarded as pure b****K).

Ps GREAT to see the mngmt team at the Globe with fans.
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I'm loving it at the moment but know we are a club that never does it the easy way and I reckon most of us old diehards and cynics know it will get "hairy" at some stage and we'll be involved in a make or break game come the last week of the season.

I so hope I'm wrong and the cigars are out at Easter but somehow doubt it!
 

Mark Warburton

sonofabee said:
I'm loving it at the moment but know we are a club that never does it the easy way and I reckon most of us old diehards and cynics know it will get "hairy" at some stage and we'll be involved in a make or break game come the last week of the season.
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After Posh away, we have coming up:

Port Vale (H)
Walsall (A)
Gillingham (H)
Bristol City (H)
Shrewsbury (A)
Crawley (H)
Crewe (A)

Under Uwe, we had a tendency to drop points when we had a run of 'easier' games, but the opportunity is there to really put some points on the board between now and the end of February.
Anyone know when the Sheff Utd game is rescheduled for?
 

Mark Warburton

scruff puppy pup said:
After Posh away, we have coming up:

Port Vale (H)
Walsall (A)
Gillingham (H)
Bristol City (H)
Shrewsbury (A)
Crawley (H)
Crewe (A)

Under Uwe, we had a tendency to drop points when we had a run of 'easier' games, but the opportunity is there to really put some points on the board between now and the end of February.
Anyone know when the Sheff Utd game is rescheduled for?
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The Sheffield United match has been scheduled for February 11th, going by the programme, but to be confirmed.
 

Mark Warburton

scruff puppy pup said:
After Posh away, we have coming up:

Port Vale (H)
Walsall (A)
Gillingham (H)
Bristol City (H)
Shrewsbury (A)
Crawley (H)
Crewe (A)

Under Uwe, we had a tendency to drop points when we had a run of 'easier' games, but the opportunity is there to really put some points on the board between now and the end of February.
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Yet when we started our present run, some of Uwe's critics dismissed it, because it was only against 'easier' teams.

And arguably the problem last season was not against the 'easier' teams, but against the 'harder' ones. For example, Bees took just 2 points from 6 games v the 3 promoted teams, Donny, B'mouth and Yeovil, = 0.33 points per game.

Against the other 20 teams, the haul was 77 points = 1.925 points per game.

Anyhow, on a "reversion to the mean" basis, I expect that Bees will drop a few points over the next few weeks.

But that need not be critical, since there should still be plenty of time to recoup them, especially if we do well in the games v Posh, Orient, Wolves, PNE and Rotherham.
 

Mark Warburton

glorybee said:
Over the last 10 seasons, how many teams, top of the table on 31st December, won promotion?
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Having looked at this, MW has put us in the best potential promotion spot we could be in.
In the last 10 seasons of League 1, the club that has been top at the end of December, has also been promoted as champions on 7 occasions at the end of the season. Plus on one occasion the end December leaders came 2nd and were automatically promoted. In the other 2 seasons, the end December leaders were not promoted, with one team losing the play-off final, and the other not even in the play-offs.

So the positive news is that 80% of the time, the end December leaders get promoted automatically.
As we all know from the suffering over many, many occasions we are absolutely terrible at play-offs, so let's go for making it 9 out of 11 times that the end December leaders get promoted automatically!
Final bit of statistical good news is that in the last 10 years, there have never been 2 seasons in a row where the end December leaders were not promoted. Last year Tranmere didn't make it, so it should be back to the end December leader gets promoted this season.

Finally, the MW attack, attack, attack strategy makes great sense in that the more you keep attacking throughout a game, the more goal scoring opportunities you create, and obviously up go your statistical chances of scoring. Which is what we are seeing right now, and long may thus continue.
I just have to adjust my 60 years of support in wishing and hoping, but often getting the worst with the Bees, into the next 5 months of expecting only the best!
 

Mark Warburton

Ealing Bee said:
Anyhow, on a "reversion to the mean" basis, I expect that Bees will drop a few points over the next few weeks.

But that need not be critical, since there should still be plenty of time to recoup them, especially if we do well in the games v Posh, Orient, Wolves, PNE and Rotherham.
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The Wolves game is right after Crewe and Sheff Utd is in the middle of that lot if it's 11th Feb.
 

Mark Warburton

Oceanbee said:
Having looked at this, MW has put us in the best potential promotion spot we could be in.
In the last 10 seasons of League 1, the club that has been top at the end of December, has also been promoted as champions on 7 occasions at the end of the season. Plus on one occasion the end December leaders came 2nd and were automatically promoted. In the other 2 seasons, the end December leaders were not promoted, with one team losing the play-off final, and the other not even in the play-offs.

So the positive news is that 80% of the time, the end December leaders get promoted automatically.
As we all know from the suffering over many, many occasions we are absolutely terrible at play-offs, so let's go for making it 9 out of 11 times that the end December leaders get promoted automatically!
Final bit of statistical good news is that in the last 10 years, there have never been 2 seasons in a row where the end December leaders were not promoted. Last year Tranmere didn't make it, so it should be back to the end December leader gets promoted this season.

Finally, the MW attack, attack, attack strategy makes great sense in that the more you keep attacking throughout a game, the more goal scoring opportunities you create, and obviously up go your statistical chances of scoring. Which is what we are seeing right now, and long may thus continue.
I just have to adjust my 60 years of support in wishing and hoping, but often getting the worst with the Bees, into the next 5 months of expecting only the best!
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Are you Ade in disguise? :)
 

Mark Warburton

Oh btw attack, attack attack although exciting is not as effective as defend, defend, defend. Keeping players up on corners not a good idea either. See all this under statistics.
 

Mark Warburton

JANORAK said:
Can I join your gang as well, please?

I like Stats, but not necessarily the statistics.....
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Yes but the stats you supply at games are irrelevant, boring and in recent weeks related to toilets on Kings Cross station!!!!!
 

Mark Warburton

Oceanbee said:
Having looked at this, MW has put us in the best potential promotion spot we could be in.
In the last 10 seasons of League 1, the club that has been top at the end of December, has also been promoted as champions on 7 occasions at the end of the season. Plus on one occasion the end December leaders came 2nd and were automatically promoted. In the other 2 seasons, the end December leaders were not promoted, with one team losing the play-off final, and the other not even in the play-offs.

So the positive news is that 80% of the time, the end December leaders get promoted automatically.
As we all know from the suffering over many, many occasions we are absolutely terrible at play-offs, so let's go for making it 9 out of 11 times that the end December leaders get promoted automatically!
Final bit of statistical good news is that in the last 10 years, there have never been 2 seasons in a row where the end December leaders were not promoted. Last year Tranmere didn't make it, so it should be back to the end December leader gets promoted this season.

Finally, the MW attack, attack, attack strategy makes great sense in that the more you keep attacking throughout a game, the more goal scoring opportunities you create, and obviously up go your statistical chances of scoring. Which is what we are seeing right now, and long may thus continue.
I just have to adjust my 60 years of support in wishing and hoping, but often getting the worst with the Bees, into the next 5 months of expecting only the best!
Click to expand...

Good info - thanks.

Unfortunately we are that team that was the first to ever lose from the "lucky" dressing room at the Millenium Stadium!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

Mark Warburton

scruff puppy pup said:
After Posh away, we have coming up:

Port Vale (H)
Walsall (A)
Gillingham (H)
Bristol City (H)
Shrewsbury (A)
Crawley (H)
Crewe (A)

Under Uwe, we had a tendency to drop points when we had a run of 'easier' games, but the opportunity is there to really put some points on the board between now and the end of February.
Anyone know when the Sheff Utd game is rescheduled for?
Click to expand...

By my reckoning, we can afford to drop 27 points before the end of the season and still get 92 points. Looking at that list, I don't see many dropped points there. We are in very good shape. :sorted:
 

Mark Warburton

Idaho Bee said:
While I agree with all the above, I'm beginning to think it may have been a blessing in disguise (a hell of a disguise!!) because if we go up this year I think we'll be on a much stronger foundation than we would have been last year, and therefore more likely to stay there.
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I wouldn't swap with Yeovil right now.
Agree. We are a much more solid outfit now. Much better to add the right players to the squad slowly as we have done. We would have probably needed several new signings if we had gone up. That would have been difficult.
It takes time to build a team for a higher division and we are on the right track.
 

Mark Warburton

I said this to a (QPR-supporting) mate yesterday: promotion last year would probably have stretched us too far too soon. We have strengthened and deepened and appear to continue to do so; this gives us both a better chance of promotion this season and a better chance of a strong, young core of players to base a Championship squad on.
 

Mark Warburton

Just looking at the last 10 years (not an exact science but food for thought)

Average points picked up by second placed team: 85.8 (so we'll call it 86). 86 would see us up on points in 5/10 seasons. We'd miss out in 2012 (93), 2011 (92) and 2009 (89) and rely on goal difference on two other occasions (2010 and 2005) but that figure would win the league in 2013 and 2006.
Most points picked up by second placed team: 93 (Sheffield Wednesday 2011/12)
Least points picked up by second placed team: 79 (Colchester 2005/06) - That figure would not have been good enough for the play offs in 2010.

Average points picked up by third placed team: 82.8 (so we'll call it 83). In those 10 years, 84 points that would have been good enough for second place twice and win the league twice (2006 and 2013 - Goal Difference)
Most points picked up by third placed team: 90 (Sheffield United 2011/12)
Least points picked up by third placed team: 76 (Brentford 2005/06)
 

Mark Warburton

ade211 said:
Oh btw attack, attack attack although exciting is not as effective as defend, defend, defend. Keeping players up on corners not a good idea either. See all this under statistics.
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Yes, Fergie's positive football ultimately cost him. Actually you can use that for both Fergie's, two promotions from league one is not a great return either.
 

Mark Warburton

Salford Bee said:
Just looking at the last 10 years (not an exact science but food for thought)

Average points picked up by second placed team: 85.8 (so we'll call it 86). 86 would see us up on points in 5/10 seasons. We'd miss out in 2012 (93), 2011 (92) and 2009 (89) and rely on goal difference on two other occasions (2010 and 2005) but that figure would win the league in 2013 and 2006.
Most points picked up by second placed team: 93 (Sheffield Wednesday 2011/12)
Least points picked up by second placed team: 79 (Colchester 2005/06) - That figure would not have been good enough for the play offs in 2010.

Average points picked up by third placed team: 82.8 (so we'll call it 83). In those 10 years, 84 points that would have been good enough for second place twice and win the league twice (2006 and 2013 - Goal Difference)
Most points picked up by third placed team: 90 (Sheffield United 2011/12)
Least points picked up by third placed team: 76 (Brentford 2005/06)
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You've got Sheffield Wed finishing in 2011/12 second on 93 and third on 90 points -schizophrenic bastards
 

Mark Warburton

As for being defensive or more attacking minded all I can say is evidence supports view that conceding ten fewer goals gets more points than scoring ten more goals.

According to the numbers games a team will score from a corner once in every ten games and leaving players up at corners is at present not a favoured tactic. Counter attacks from corners are negligible and having everyone back reduces opposition scoring.

If you have time watch match of the day or sky or the champions league. This may be changing as teams strive for gaining small advantages by bucking the trend. Perhaps Warburton is doing this.
 

Mark Warburton

ade211 said:
As for being defensive or more attacking minded all I can say is evidence supports view that conceding ten fewer goals gets more points than scoring ten more goals.

According to the numbers games a team will score from a corner once in every ten games and leaving players up at corners is at present not a favoured tactic. Counter attacks from corners are negligible and having everyone back reduces opposition scoring.

If you have time watch match of the day or sky or the champions league. This may be changing as teams strive for gaining small advantages by bucking the trend. Perhaps Warburton is doing this.
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You're statistical analysis misses the point on this occasion. Of course a defensive styled side is going to be effected by goals conceded more than goals scored, or any team in fact. You concede another goal in a game that you are winning 2-1 it's a draw, you score another it's 3-1. Statistics cloud the issue in this respect, I don't think a defensive style of play has a better impact at all. Look at Barcelona, Manchester United, Arsenal (10 years ago), Real Madrid (not under Mourinho) and Bayern. The most successful sides in recent years have been positive attacking sides, there are only a few anomalies. Also the failure of Italian sides and their style of play in the CL is something to note. Of course you need a solid defence, but been extra cautious doesn't help your chances IMO, if anything I would say it hinders them. How many leads did we blow under MA trying to hold out instead of killing the game off? I would also say it cost Mancini his job last season.
 

Mark Warburton

ade211 said:
As for being defensive or more attacking minded all I can say is evidence supports view that conceding ten fewer goals gets more points than scoring ten more goals.

According to the numbers games a team will score from a corner once in every ten games and leaving players up at corners is at present not a favoured tactic. Counter attacks from corners are negligible and having everyone back reduces opposition scoring.

If you have time watch match of the day or sky or the champions league. This may be changing as teams strive for gaining small advantages by bucking the trend. Perhaps Warburton is doing this.
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Tell you what Ade, you are obviously advocating defensive football whilst Edcase is just pure bloody miserable so how about the 2 of you getting together as we could then play defensive football in the quiet and you will both be happy !!!!!
 

Mark Warburton

The Pipe said:
Tell you what Ade, you are obviously advocating defensive football whilst Edcase is just pure bloody miserable so how about the 2 of you getting together as we could then play defensive football in the quiet and you will both be happy !!!!!
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In the quiet?
I think you're confusing me with NorthamptonBee, Voice of Braemer, or any of the other doddery Bees pensioners.
I'm part of that horrible "singing lot" - you know, the ones who on match day actually support and gee-up the players.
 

Mark Warburton

jlove said:
I said this to a (QPR-supporting) mate yesterday: promotion last year would probably have stretched us too far too soon. We have strengthened and deepened and appear to continue to do so; this gives us both a better chance of promotion this season and a better chance of a strong, young core of players to base a Championship squad on.
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So really we should be "praising Caesar Augustus Trotta, not burying him"?

[EB dons Tin Hat and heads for the bunker]
 
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