Mathias Jensen

Mathias Jensen

horshambees said:
Okay.
I say what I do when I do,but "We'll support you evermore" is the motto.

Looking forward to Borehamwood on Saturday and revising the fixture list.
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Is the boreham wood game available to watch on YouTube does anyone know ?
 

Mathias Jensen

SH said:
We're a data-driven club, so here's last season's data on MJ: match day ratings courtesy of whoscored.com. Let's not get into an argument about whoscored, it's just the most comprehensive out there. The best players (De Bruyne, TAA, Son, etc.) average 7.5/10 per game. Brentford's leaderboard headed by Ivan (7.28), Christian (7.0) and Ethan (6.97). We have ten players who played regularly who "scored" 6.5 or more.

Mathias played 1602 minutes (31 games) for an average rating of 6.42 (the green line below). Here's the match-by match chart. The red line is the matchgame figure, the blue's a three game moving average to try to even out "form".

View attachment 33260

I'm firmly in the "on-the-fence" camp with MJ. When he's good he's very, very good, when he's bad, he's shocking. That's what my eyes tell me, and that's what the data shows. The data suggests he hit something of an improving run of form after CE joined (Newcastle is game 21 above), but nothing particularly different from earlier runs.

It's the lack of consistency that's the killer. Still, glass half full, he's seen what a CE can do and he has a new season to show that he can emulate it. Onwards and upwards.
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Stats-based or opinion-based? (Which stats/sample size of opinion?)
 

Mathias Jensen

Lionel Bart-At said:
Stats-based or opinion-based? (Which stats/sample size of opinion?)
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31 games with a comparison group of 10-13 players as a reference level in each case. If you think the relative rating is wrong in all (or the majority of the) 31 cases, then that's entirely your opinion. My opinion is that the inconsistency shown in the stats matches exactly what I see with my own eyes, which is why I'm sitting uncomfortably on the fence. And hoping that the numbers at the end of 2022-23 are significantly higher.
 

Mathias Jensen

SH said:
31 games with a comparison group of 10-13 players as a reference level in each case. If you think the relative rating is wrong in all (or the majority of the) 31 cases, then that's entirely your opinion. My opinion is that the inconsistency shown in the stats matches exactly what I see with my own eyes, which is why I'm sitting uncomfortably on the fence. And hoping that the numbers at the end of 2022-23 are significantly higher.
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I haven't expressed an opinion. I've asked you a question. Which you haven't really answered, with respect.
 

Mathias Jensen

Lionel Bart-At said:
I haven't expressed an opinion. I've asked you a question. Which you haven't really answered, with respect.
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Sorry, which bit isn't explained? whoscored do the most detailed contemporaneous player ratings I've found. If you've got a better source of data, because it is statistical data (see below), please point me towards it.

I get that you love MJ; we all have our favourites, rational or irrational, but if you seriously think the numbers are wrong in the whole 31 game statistical comparison then we'll have to agree to disagree, because my own opinion is that they're relatively, pretty fair.

You can find the methodology below:

 

Mathias Jensen

I have previously expressed opinions both praising and criticising Jensen, as I have felt appropriate. Here, I am simply asking you how Whoscored arrive at their ratings. Simple question. Thanks for the link. I'll try to have a look at some point.
 

Mathias Jensen

SH said:
We're a data-driven club, so here's last season's data on MJ: match day ratings courtesy of whoscored.com. Let's not get into an argument about whoscored, it's just the most comprehensive out there. The best players (De Bruyne, TAA, Son, etc.) average 7.5/10 per game. Brentford's leaderboard headed by Ivan (7.28), Christian (7.0) and Ethan (6.97). We have ten players who played regularly who "scored" 6.5 or more.

Mathias played 1602 minutes (31 games) for an average rating of 6.42 (the green line below). Here's the match-by match chart. The red line is the matchgame figure, the blue's a three game moving average to try to even out "form".

View attachment 33260

I'm firmly in the "on-the-fence" camp with MJ. When he's good he's very, very good, when he's bad, he's shocking. That's what my eyes tell me, and that's what the data shows. The data suggests he hit something of an improving run of form after CE joined (Newcastle is game 21 above), but nothing particularly different from earlier runs.

It's the lack of consistency that's the killer. Still, glass half full, he's seen what a CE can do and he has a new season to show that he can emulate it. Onwards and upwards.
Click to expand...

Maybe it's my inbuilt biases, but that graph shows to me that Jensen is good when we are good and bad when we are bad. Because he's very much a system player. He's the guy who helps the system tick along, but when it breaks down, he can't fix it. So he struggles. The thing is...Eriksen is kinda similar, just better. I think our old midfield of Norgaard, Jensen, and daSilva would be a great bet for us next season, with important parts to play for Janelt, Onyeka, Baptiste, and Ghoddos.

I like MJ. I think he's a good player who does a lot of things right. I have really enjoyed watching his work off the ball in the past, something that many football fans seem to ignore. He's excellent at positioning himself not just to provide an option, but to be in a position to disrupt a counter if we lose the ball. That was especially important in the Championship, when Rico was often found up the pitch, he would slot in in a kind of deep left midfielder position. He was still available for a pass, but if the opposition tried to break, he was in position to cut out passes to their wide forwards.

That's also something hard to quantify, though I'm sure we can and do. It's like the fact Coady - and to a lesser effect VVD - post numbers significantly lower than their actual importance to the team. Their positioning dissuades attacks and forces the opposition to try riskier plays, that result in lower xG.
 

Mathias Jensen

SH said:
Sorry, which bit isn't explained? whoscored do the most detailed contemporaneous player ratings I've found. If you've got a better source of data, because it is statistical data (see below), please point me towards it.

I get that you love MJ; we all have our favourites, rational or irrational, but if you seriously think the numbers are wrong in the whole 31 game statistical comparison then we'll have to agree to disagree, because my own opinion is that they're relatively, pretty fair.

You can find the methodology below:

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As much as I like Whoscored’s and I post them all the time. It can be misleading, and my thoughts are confirmed by reading your posted Explanations. Substitute appearances can be very short and if you have too many can unfairly sway a players average.
Mathias played 31 games in the PL last season but 11 of those were as sub. in those appearances scores start at 6 and are adjusted accordingly by good/bad possession.

His average rating from those 12 appearances is 6.17
Average rating from his other 19 games is 6.78. This is the figure to rate him on, the fair amount.

In 8, 10, 12 or 15 minutes you cant score very highly or lowly in fact his sub appearances are all between 5.9 and 6.49
In matches where he started his ratings ranged between 5.85 (Brighton away) where he got subbed at HT and 7.68 (Norwich home)
 

Mathias Jensen

*Even though Yoane Wissa has scored 3 goals as substitute, his average substitute rating is only 6.29 from 18 sub appearances
 

Mathias Jensen

Lionel Bart-At said:
I have previously expressed opinions both praising and criticising Jensen, as I have felt appropriate. Here, I am simply asking you how Whoscored arrive at their ratings. Simple question. Thanks for the link. I'll try to have a look at some point.
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It seems you have now been labelled a Jensen lover ??‍♂️
Too many black and white thinkers on here…
 

Mathias Jensen

horshambees said:
If we are critical does that make us bad supporters?
If we are not does that make us good supporters?
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Supporter - a person who approves of and encourages a public figure… ?‍♂️
 

Mathias Jensen

I think a question that needs to be asked is, do we expect Jensen to start every match? Seems to be the first choice when it comes to taking free kicks. I think I prefer Janelt overall, but it's hard to pick someone to replace that set piece taker. I'm hoping that Dasilva can help plug the creativity gap that Eriksen will leave, but who takes the set pieces then?
 

Mathias Jensen

Billy Hunt said:
It seems you have now been labelled a Jensen lover ??‍♂️
Too many black and white thinkers on here…
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I don’t think anyone actually loves MJ just as I don’t think anyone actually hates him??? give him is due…this thread could be a record breaker by the time we sell him to mk dons for 200k ???
 

Mathias Jensen

PGH_Bee said:
I think a question that needs to be asked is, do we expect Jensen to start every match? Seems to be the first choice when it comes to taking free kicks. I think I prefer Janelt overall, but it's hard to pick someone to replace that set piece taker. I'm hoping that Dasilva can help plug the creativity gap that Eriksen will leave, but who takes the set pieces then?
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I think it depends a lot on whether TF thinks we still need to go a bit Southgate and play two DMs. If so Janelt plays and we vary between third midfielders depending on opposition (I’m assuming 352- I think with 433 and no CE we need to go with two DMs and possibly have Onyeka as the third, relying on them to boss things for solidity and have a lot of responsibility on the FBs and front 3). If not we may see Jensen starting more regularly than Janelt (who it looked like TF was moving into a more attacking role when CE was here) and a more attacking regular third being played, eg JDS if he steps up.
 

Mathias Jensen

HaylingBee74 said:
As much as I like Whoscored’s and I post them all the time. It can be misleading, and my thoughts are confirmed by reading your posted Explanations. Substitute appearances can be very short and if you have too many can unfairly sway a players average.
Mathias played 31 games in the PL last season but 11 of those were as sub. in those appearances scores start at 6 and are adjusted accordingly by good/bad possession.

His average rating from those 12 appearances is 6.17
Average rating from his other 19 games is 6.78. This is the figure to rate him on, the fair amount.

In 8, 10, 12 or 15 minutes you cant score very highly or lowly in fact his sub appearances are all between 5.9 and 6.49
In matches where he started his ratings ranged between 5.85 (Brighton away) where he got subbed at HT and 7.68 (Norwich home)
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Very fair point (y) I'm not sure it's"fair" to drop all sub appearances, e.g. Wissa got a 7.07 for 12 mins v. Liverpool, and 7.13 for less v. West Ham, but if you do a time-weighted average for MJ it's 6.6, or 6.66 where he plays at least a half. Better, for sure. Hopefully he'll add another .5 this season ?
 

Mathias Jensen

SH said:
Very fair point (y) I'm not sure it's"fair" to drop all sub appearances, e.g. Wissa got a 7.07 for 12 mins v. Liverpool, and 7.13 for less v. West Ham, but if you do a time-weighted average for MJ it's 6.6, or 6.66 where he plays at least a half. Better, for sure. Hopefully he'll add another .5 this season ?
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Thats why I checked Yoane, I thought his would be better than they were. Even 7.07 & 7.13 weren’t very impressive, though short appearances
 

Mathias Jensen

I’m not sure there’s much value in the ratings out of ten and think the more granular stats are more meaningful in highlighting strengths and weaknesses. MJ could do with improving those too but they throw up fun things like him being dispossessed and having bad control a lot less per game for us last season than CE. Passing accuracy is a bit lower but the stand out stat for CE is how many passes per game he makes - more than double MJ. That’s probably the result of the “vision” thing. If MJ can get that chess player’s way of seeing more moves ahead and assessing options in advance we see a different player without having to change much else. But that is easier said than done and practising set pieces to get success rates up is maybe more feasible.
 

Mathias Jensen

SH said:
Very fair point (y) I'm not sure it's"fair" to drop all sub appearances, e.g. Wissa got a 7.07 for 12 mins v. Liverpool, and 7.13 for less v. West Ham, but if you do a time-weighted average for MJ it's 6.6, or 6.66 where he plays at least a half. Better, for sure. Hopefully he'll add another .5 this season ?
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He's been 6.66 is some people's opinion for some time.
 
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Mathias Jensen

stomalomalus said:
Maybe it's my inbuilt biases, but that graph shows to me that Jensen is good when we are good and bad when we are bad. Because he's very much a system player. He's the guy who helps the system tick along, but when it breaks down, he can't fix it. So he struggles. The thing is...Eriksen is kinda similar, just better. I think our old midfield of Norgaard, Jensen, and daSilva would be a great bet for us next season, with important parts to play for Janelt, Onyeka, Baptiste, and Ghoddos.

I like MJ. I think he's a good player who does a lot of things right. I have really enjoyed watching his work off the ball in the past, something that many football fans seem to ignore. He's excellent at positioning himself not just to provide an option, but to be in a position to disrupt a counter if we lose the ball. That was especially important in the Championship, when Rico was often found up the pitch, he would slot in in a kind of deep left midfielder position. He was still available for a pass, but if the opposition tried to break, he was in position to cut out passes to their wide forwards.

That's also something hard to quantify, though I'm sure we can and do. It's like the fact Coady - and to a lesser effect VVD - post numbers significantly lower than their actual importance to the team. Their positioning dissuades attacks and forces the opposition to try riskier plays, that result in lower xG.
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Fascinating observations from someone who obviously properly observes and analyses. Great to read. Fantastic post. Thanks.

Add Iniesta to your last paragraph. Don’t feel I should bore everyone with the story all over again, but it is fair to point out the limitations of algorithms. I suppose they are there as a starting point to aid one’s analysis, rather than dictate it.
 

Mathias Jensen

horshambees said:
Supporter is some one who openly and publicly promotes that individual too.
We could be football fans one minute supporters the next.
Customers even who of course are never wrong.
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In that case, I’m a supporter, not a fan. ?‍♂️
I definitely don’t consider myself a customer :nono:
 

Mathias Jensen

Great involvement in the build-up, and then assist, for our goal vs Stuttgart.

If it had been a certain other Dane people would be creaming about it for weeks.

MJ didn’t get a pre-season last year due to injury and I don’t think it helped him to adapt to the physical rigours of PL football, especially as he was in and out of the team upon his return.

By the end of the season though he was looking really good and with a proper pre-season behind him he could be a secret weapon in the next campaign.
 

Mathias Jensen

BFC1997 said:
MJ didn’t get a pre-season last year due to injury and I don’t think it helped him to adapt to the physical rigours of PL football, especially as he was in and out of the team upon his return.
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Hopefully this summer’s break will have given him a major boost. As you say, he was still playing in the Euros (and injured) last July. The previous year was covid, playoff defeat and rapid turnaround, and 2019 had him captaining the Danish U21s at the junior Euros in late June, before moving to Bees in early July. So his first proper “downtime” in years. ?
 

Mathias Jensen

James30 said:
Never has a bad game okay …
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I think the question mark is productivity.
Just putting my Fantasy team together for the coming season,and Jensen’s record last year was one assist and no goals in 18 appearances.
 

Mathias Jensen

kewbee said:
I think the question mark is productivity.
Just putting my Fantasy team together for the coming season,and Jensen’s record last year was one assist and no goals in 18 appearances.
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Yes, he’s not the best FPL pick. Five short of Zinchenko and only 15 above Kalvin Phillips!
 

Mathias Jensen

James30 said:
Did you watch any games in which he played last season ? I don’t need to back it up he was poor until end of the season !
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I feel you may not be entirely correct... but any debate would be entirely subjective, therefore a complete waste of energy. The only person that matters is Thomas Frank and his selections last season didn't fully support your view. I'd guess the selections in the first 8 games may be the deciding factor.
 

Mathias Jensen

jlove said:
I feel you may not be entirely correct... but any debate would be entirely subjective, therefore a complete waste of energy. The only person that matters is Thomas Frank and his selections last season didn't fully support your view. I'd guess the selections in the first 8 games may be the deciding factor.
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The only person that matters is, me and my opinion. That's why I post. Sometimes Thomas gets ; personnel, formation and tactics right, and sometimes , he doesn't. This forum is for debating these decisions... I reckon
 

Mathias Jensen

Chipshop Bee said:
The only person that matters is, me and my opinion. That's why I post. Sometimes Thomas gets ; personnel, formation and tactics right, and sometimes , he doesn't. This forum is for debating these decisions... I reckon
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It is but sometimes it’s worth having a little quiet think beforehand about whether the manager who has taken us to our highest position in English football since WW2 might have generally and overwhelmingly often over the last 4 years got all those right or if wrong at the very least for better reasons than a failure to notice that Jensen is rubbish (etc).
 

Mathias Jensen

BudleighBee said:
Where do I say that Voice is not entitled to his views? I just disagree and don't especially like constant criticism of a player, which doesn't really in my view serve any purpose, but as Voices response indicated, the fact I disagree makes no difference to what he thinks and unless I have persuaded him, nor should it. The fact I disagree does not mean Voice or anyone else can't say what they want.
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In that case can I just let Ruislip Bee know that Vibe was never 'brilliant' - good on his day, but tended to avoid any real contact with
opposition defenders of a robust kind. Was good at pre-empting defensive mistakes that rarely happened.
 

Mathias Jensen

Chipshop Bee said:
The only person that matters is, me and my opinion. That's why I post. Sometimes Thomas gets ; personnel, formation and tactics right, and sometimes , he doesn't. This forum is for debating these decisions... I reckon
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Wow I hope it's not a long drop falling out your own arse which you are clearly up. Your own trumpet that you are blowing might be more of a problem.
 
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