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ade211

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Prediction

For the last few weeks have been posting where a statistical web sight figures out where teams in league one will be at the end of the season. Today taking into account Saturday's results we will be fifth with 70 to 71 points. Orient will be second with 80 to 81 points. So gap closing but with lots of work to do.

The simulation takes a few hours to settle as I believe some complex stats are being done. This is where it was at 9:45 on Monday.

It can be found at

http://www.footcharts.co.uk/index.cfm?task=simulation
 

Prediction

detours said:
That chart has Coventry currently in 4th...

And Bradford are going to finish 2nd???
Click to expand...

The simulation is still working. It changes quite a lot to start with. At present orient second with nearly 81 points. Us with 71 points. So eleven to make up. Easy. Lol
 

Prediction

Is this a full regression analysis, doesn't really explain how they've calculated this or what variables have been used?
 

Prediction

hobbsy said:
Is this a full regression analysis, doesn't really explain how they've calculated this or what variables have been used?
Click to expand...

I have also looked. Can't find how they do it. I suspect it is not a regression based approach but, whoops this is going to turn even more people off, a large simulation model based on each match to be played, then feed back in to next match, etc. this would explain the sensitivity of it when it is first published. But not really sure. Could be Bayesian based but not convinced that the company that does that has the skills for that.

You can see predictions for future games with percentages. These percentages could be used in the simulation.

MB company I reckon does this sort of analysis. So he probably does know.

Sorry can't help anymore.
 

Prediction

ade211 said:
I have also looked. Can't find how they do it. I suspect it is not a regression based approach but, whoops this is going to turn even more people off, a large simulation model based on each match to be played, then feed back in to next match, etc. this would explain the sensitivity of it when it is first published. But not really sure. Could be Bayesian based but not convinced that the company that does that has the skills for that.

You can see predictions for future games with percentages. These percentages could be used in the simulation.

MB company I reckon does this sort of analysis. So he probably does know.

Sorry can't help anymore.
Click to expand...

Are you addicted to this stuff?
 

Prediction

My therapist says soon my new medication will kick in. I have nearly convince her that there is a team called Brentford. At first she thought that was just a figment of my imagination. She quite likes me doing stats as on the whole it keeps me happy. It could be worse I could be addicted to watching Fulham play. Lol
 

Prediction

Not sure about Bayesian, In the past we've had Monte Carlo calculations up here, last time I saw that it was done by an Exeter fan for our League Two win.
 

Prediction

Bayesian analysis? Monte-Carlo models? What's wrong with the good old Duckworth-Lewis method?
 

Prediction

Full Metal Jacket said:
Bayesian analysis? Monte-Carlo models? What's wrong with the good old Duckworth-Lewis method?
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Trouble with Brentford fans. So behind the times. Mind you could use bootstrap methods. As for DL I prefer Benham -Rosler double inversion.
 

Prediction

ade211 said:
For the last few weeks have been posting where a statistical web sight figures out where teams in league one will be at the end of the season. Today taking into account Saturday's results we will be fifth with 70 to 71 points. Orient will be second with 80 to 81 points. So gap closing but with lots of work to do.

The simulation takes a few hours to settle as I believe some complex stats are being done. This is where it was at 9:45 on Monday.

It can be found at

http://www.footcharts.co.uk/index.cfm?task=simulation
Click to expand...


What a load of bollox.
 

Prediction

wayfarer172 said:
What a load of bollox.
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May well be but it does give an indication of what we need to do to get automatic promotion, and failing that in the playoffs. We are about ten points away from automatic. We will not catch Wolves unless they have a complete drop in form for a few months. A long way to go but shows we do need some great results and some scrappy ones to get automatic.
 

Prediction

Lies, damned lies and statistics, as they say.
 

Prediction

So lets fix a point in the ground, say End November, look at all the predictions sites and who the forecast will be in the top 6, and then lose the thread until May. Then have a look and see which ones are right. Then next year we do all the same, everyone loads the house and the coppers from the back of the sofa to the one that did best and pool our winnings to buy the next Paul Hayes?
 

Prediction

Unfortunately in my experience predictions at this stage mean sod all and have little veracity behind them and there are so many potential pitfalls ahead for all the clubs. The table is the best thing as it actually relates to what has happened

Wolves Posh and Orient could all go busy after Christmas which would mean the predictions are useless!!

Ade I love your honesty and obvious enjoyment of stats but quite frankly for the vast majority if us they are as helpful as a chocolate teapot !!!
 

Prediction

Chocolate teapot. Damn I was going to buy some of these to give as presents at our Xmas home matches. Are you saying they are of no use. Wish I had known that. Before buying them. Worryingly have just got access to a large database of soccer research so you can look forward to even more of this sort of thing. Lucky you.
 

Prediction

ade211 said:
Chocolate teapot. Damn I was going to buy some of these to give as presents at our Xmas home matches. Are you saying they are of no use. Wish I had known that. Before buying them. Worryingly have just got access to a large database of soccer research so you can look forward to even more of this sort of thing. Lucky you.
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Oh joy!!!! Not sure my simple brain is up to the challenge!!!!

Keep doing the good work and perhaps even dinosaurs such as myself may be converted !!!!
 

Prediction

The Pipe said:
Oh joy!!!! Not sure my simple brain is up to the challenge!!!!

Keep doing the good work and perhaps even dinosaurs such as myself may be converted !!!!
Click to expand...

I am told that from next season we will have to take an ipad to the game.
 

Prediction

sonofabee said:
It's what you wear that covers your eyes when you want to sleep or when you have dodgy sight- I think some have already been wearing regularly at games.
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Great idea then, I can think of several games where they would have been very useful.
 

Prediction

You are not going to believe this but I have been looking at stats on when a league table starts to be influenced by the impact of talent than more than luck. It appears that after about 19 games variation attributed to luck becomes less significant than that of talent. Luck is still important but talent's effect outweighs it. So in about five games or so we will get a better understanding of how well we are doing. I suspect orient will start to slip away and Bristol City will start to improve. I also think we will be just outside automatic promotion by then.

Also looking at same other stats defensively we are best in the league at restricting opponents to a few shots, 6.73 a match compared to 10.57 wolves, we are not great at stopping shots turning into goal, 36%, compared with wolves 13.5%. Is this as we have been unlucky as I think I heard Rosler say that opponents seem to score when they do attack us or does it show we have a defensive weakness? In summary we appear to manage to restrict the opposition to few shots, but a high percentage are on target and of these a high percentage go in. Why?
 

Prediction

GuyBee said:
So lets fix a point in the ground, say End November, look at all the predictions sites and who the forecast will be in the top 6, and then lose the thread until May. Then have a look and see which ones are right. Then next year we do all the same, everyone loads the house and the coppers from the back of the sofa to the one that did best and pool our winnings to buy the next Paul Hayes?
Click to expand...

I predict in the great Brentford tradition that Paul Hayes will have his contract part paid up & leave in January, therefore freeing up a spot for a new loan signing I would suspect.:D
 

Prediction

ade211 said:
For the last few weeks have been posting where a statistical web sight figures out where teams in league one will be at the end of the season. Today taking into account Saturday's results we will be fifth with 70 to 71 points. Orient will be second with 80 to 81 points. So gap closing but with lots of work to do.

The simulation takes a few hours to settle as I believe some complex stats are being done. This is where it was at 9:45 on Monday.

It can be found at

http://www.footcharts.co.uk/index.cfm?task=simulation
Click to expand...

Does it take into account Tomlin breaking a leg, Doyle being sold during the January window and Lisbie coming out as a trans-sexual?
 

Prediction

hypa123 said:
Does it take into account Tomlin breaking a leg, Doyle being sold during the January window and Lisbie coming out as a trans-sexual?
Click to expand...

How did you know about Lisburn. I thought that was a big secret?

And Messi joining us in new year. You heard it here first.
 

Prediction

We have the fifth biggest playing budget, (or so I'm told). We are currently fifth. Now, let me see, where are we most likely to finish.............? Ah, yes..........fifth!
 

Prediction

Full Metal Jacket said:
We have the fifth biggest playing budget, (or so I'm told). We are currently fifth. Now, let me see, where are we most likely to finish.............? Ah, yes..........fifth!
Click to expand...

May be higher as Bristol City have a long way to make up as I believe their budget is higher. And is Sheffield united's. They also a lot to make up.

Would as Rosler, I think, likes more defensive play, this may give us an edge.

So perhaps third. Automatic promotion will be very hard for us.
 

Prediction

Full Metal Jacket said:
We have the fifth biggest playing budget, (or so I'm told). We are currently fifth. Now, let me see, where are we most likely to finish.............? Ah, yes..........fifth!
Click to expand...

We're actually sixth if you ignore Coventry's 10 point deduction.
I believe we have one of the top four squads in the division, maybe top three even, but you don't field a squad, you field 11 players. That's one of the reason Uwe's management is under the spotlight in a way it wasn't at the start of the season.

I can't see Wolves failing over 46 games due to the combination of their resources and their manager (it's the combination, Ade. Managers are so important but good ones still need to be given something to work with).
My guess is Leyton Orient won't fade as badly as Tranmere did (right after they beat us at Griffin Park!), but they probably won't keep up their curent amazing pace. Still, that's gotta be one of the play-off places filled at least and maybe an automatic one.
After that, I'd look at the sides who haven't lost much, so that's Preston, Posh and Coventry.

My guess is we finish 3rd or 4th, unless Uwe really is turning into..........I dunno, Neil Warnock?
 

Prediction

scruff puppy pup said:
We're actually sixth if you ignore Coventry's 10 point deduction.
I believe we have one of the top four squads in the division, maybe top three even, but you don't field a squad, you field 11 players. That's one of the reason Uwe's management is under the spotlight in a way it wasn't at the start of the season.

I can't see Wolves failing over 46 games due to the combination of their resources and their manager (it's the combination, Ade. Managers are so important but good ones still need to be given something to work with).
My guess is Leyton Orient won't fade as badly as Tranmere did (right after they beat us at Griffin Park!), but they probably won't keep up their curent amazing pace. Still, that's gotta be one of the play-off places filled at least and maybe an automatic one.
After that, I'd look at the sides who haven't lost much, so that's Preston, Posh and Coventry.

My guess is we finish 3rd or 4th, unless Uwe really is turning into..........I dunno, Neil Warnock?
Click to expand...
 

Prediction

Squad depth is important as injuries and suspensions have such a negative impact. As you point out hard to believe orient can keep going with its relative lack of quality squad players.

Looking at the stats we are good at limiting our opponents to few shots but for some unknown reason, well at least to me, they tend to convert a relative high percentage of them.

See http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=Leagues

Also to be controversial crosses are not a very productive way to score. That surprises me. And corners are also not a great source of goals. What appears is ball retention and pressing high up the pitch to gain the ball create better goal scoring opportunities. Wonder if this is the style Rosler is going for?
 
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