Rasmus Ankersen

[Banana]

the frequency with which a relegated team returns to the Premier League compared with the frequency with which a team promoted from League One goes straight through to the Premier League suggests there is a significant gap

A relegated club, or the bottom club?

As we know to our cost, promotion is a very narrow bottleneck, as is relegation. So there are plenty of overlaps in the leagues. It isn't a given that the Top 20 teams are in the PL and the next 24 best teams are in the Championship etc. Far from it.

 

[Simon C]

If a football match stopped after 75 minutes how many matches would end with a different result? If the Premier League and Championship had a different number of clubs each how different would we think of each clubs position?

The point Ras is making is that the divisions are an arbitrary divider that don't help when you are assessing team or player performance.

You'll hear pundits ask whether a player from a certain league (e.g. the Championship) will make the transition to the next League. We have data that tells us with more certainty than most.

 

[AB]

I can believe that, taking into account that a team at the bottom of a league will be short on confidence and a team at the top of a league, high on confidence. But the frequency with which a relegated team returns to the Premier League compared with the frequency with which a team promoted from League One goes straight through to the Premier League suggests there is a significant gap, and to be honest, watching Fulham or West Brom compared with Blackpool or Lincoln, I think that is clearly the case. So though I'd agree that the biggest difference is between the top 7 or 8 Premier League clubs and those below, I think Rasmus probably did overstate his case a bit.

In the Championship it is not uncommon for promoted teams from L1 to beat relegated teams from the PL or to finish level or above them over the season. Eg last season Luton were on the same points as Huddersfield, the season before Blackburn finished above Stoke, the season before all three promoted clubs finished above Sunderland and two finishes above Hull, season before Barnsley only a place below Villa and so on. Obviously the teams higher up a division are better than ones lower in the same division (barring statistical anomalies like Reading when they got to the play off final last) but that doesn’t obviously apply so clearly between divisions and even adjusting for opposition quality it isn’t that odd for a bad PL team to be insignificantly different in actual performance quality to a very good L1 team.

 

[rebus]

I think Rasmus slightly over-egged it when her went down to the top of League 1 in his comparison with the bottom of the Premier League, but MR was the epitome of a Premier League pundit. The fact that he didn't know who came top two in League 1 he saw as indicative of their insignificance, rather than evidence of his own ignorance, insularity and lack of curiosity for football outside the Premier League.

I don’t think he did over egg it. Our 2014 promotion season saw games in the back end of that campaign that wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Premier League.

 

[BFC1997]

It’s worth mentioning on the above that Rasmus wasn’t saying there is *no gap at all* between the top of League One and the bottom of the Premier League. Just that the gap is often overestimated because the teams are two leagues apart.

And when you consider the context of the point he was trying to make, that the biggest gap of all is between everyone else and the Premier League top 8, he’s right and making a very good point.

 

[AB]

It’s worth mentioning on the above that Rasmus wasn’t saying there is *no gap at all* between the top of League One and the bottom of the Premier League. Just that the gap is often overestimated because the teams are two leagues apart.

And when you consider the context of the point he was trying to make, that the biggest gap of all is between everyone else and the Premier League top 8, he’s right and making a very good point.

The Carabao games against Southampton, WBA, Fulham and Newcastle showed no gulf in class (indeed having beaten them all the reverse). The first round game against newly promoted Wycombe was also very tight despite them having only made the play offs on a technicality. The gap up to top 8 is also not to be exaggerated given that we gave both Spurs and Leicester good games. I read Mourinho’s comment about us basically already being a PL team in that light. At the top of the PL it is also about consistency combined with a higher overall quality. A moderately good but very consistent performing PL team like Wolves, Leeds and Sheff U in their first seasons can finish top half. A moderately good but flaky one can bumble around like Newcastle and Southampton, ultimately safe but in the latter’s case with the odd 9-0 thumping to bear.

 

[Mr Cynical]

I'm pleased he has stated the more athletic area. I think it means we need more midfielders of the Josh type rather than Emiliano types. The still need to be skillful but also able to tackle etc. This is a key area for me to improve if we are to survive in the Prem.

I don't think he's talking about tackling when he mentions athleticism..

 

[Mr Cynical]

Scroll to 1hr 29m here;

5 Live Sport - The Monday Night Club - 31/05/2021 - BBC Sounds

Mark Chapman presents football discussion following the Champions League final.

www.bbc.co.uk

Really enjoyed that interview. It's really encouraging to hear such a calm and almost detached discussion about how we might survive in the Prem. Love the bit about planning for where we want to be in the future rather than the here and now. Not recruiting to just stay up but for way beyond that. Also the comments about the 2 divisions within the PL. It's so true, any of the bottom half last season could end up in trouble this year with just a few poor signings or a bad managerial appointment. You feel like we'll be as on it as we can be with recruiting this summer and that even if it doesn't work out we won't put ourselves in the position that teams like Stoke, QPR and Sunderland have in the past.. I'm not surprised at Micah's reaction. We'll get a load of that next season. PL teams and their fans like to make out that they're a million miles ahead of everyone else. I just hope we can educate them next season..

 

[Alex]

It’s worth mentioning on the above that Rasmus wasn’t saying there is *no gap at all* between the top of League One and the bottom of the Premier League. Just that the gap is often overestimated because the teams are two leagues apart.

And when you consider the context of the point he was trying to make, that the biggest gap of all is between everyone else and the Premier League top 8, he’s right and making a very good point.

I was just about to post the same, this is the part people seem to be missing

 

[jlove]

I'm pleased he has stated the more athletic area. I think it means we need more midfielders of the Josh type rather than Emiliano types. The still need to be skillful but also able to tackle etc. This is a key area for me to improve if we are to survive in the Prem.

If you're referring to Josh Dasilva, he's incredibly athletic but can you recall him making a tackle?

 

[PJ]

The Carabao games against Southampton, WBA, Fulham and Newcastle showed no gulf in class (indeed having beaten them all the reverse). The first round game against newly promoted Wycombe was also very tight despite them having only made the play offs on a technicality. The gap up to top 8 is also not to be exaggerated given that we gave both Spurs and Leicester good games. I read Mourinho’s comment about us basically already being a PL team in that light. At the top of the PL it is also about consistency combined with a higher overall quality. A moderately good but very consistent performing PL team like Wolves, Leeds and Sheff U in their first seasons can finish top half. A moderately good but flaky one can bumble around like Newcastle and Southampton, ultimately safe but in the latter’s case with the odd 9-0 thumping to bear.

Personally don't think league Cup results give an accurate reflection.
That's not to knock our wins at all, but the Prem teams put out were squad teams. And our cup side is also a squad team.
Not the same as league games with both sides at full strength, so an inaccurate indicator IMHO

 

[AB]

Personally don't think league Cup results give an accurate reflection.
That's not to knock our wins at all, but the Prem teams put out were squad teams. And our cup side is also a squad team.
Not the same as league games with both sides at full strength, so an inaccurate indicator IMHO

Southampton, who were top of the league at the time, played the same team as they put out in their previous game. But even as an indicator of squad strength they say something. It’s not so long ago that we got hammered 5-0 at Derby.

 

[PJ]

Southampton, who were top of the league at the time, played the same team as they put out in their previous game. But even as an indicator of squad strength they say something. It’s not so long ago that we got hammered 5-0 at Derby.

Yep, I was there.
Uwe basically played a total second string/youth X1 but Derby put a pretty strong team out.
That's what I'm saying, that result becomes a stat but doesn't reflect the reality!

 

[jlove]

... I think Rasmus probably did overstate his case a bit.

I think his case is supported by data.

If you've followed the little that Matthew Benham has said in various interviews over the years, similarly Rasmus, you will know that one of the tools used by Smartodds is a statistical table that ranks all European clubs. I see no reason to think this is not still the case and that it would have had considerable refinement in the algorithms that underpin it.

It must be this 'league table' that indicates the relative groupings of clubs in their national leagues and that those groupings show overlaps between divisions.

 

[BFC1997]

I think his case is supported by data.

If you've followed the little that Matthew Benham has said in various interviews over the years, similarly Rasmus, you will know that one of the tools used by Smartodds is a statistical table that ranks all European clubs. I see no reason to think this is not still the case and that it would have had considerable refinement in the algorithms that underpin it.

It must be this 'league table' that indicates the relative groupings of clubs in their national leagues and that those groupings show overlaps between divisions.

There’s an example of one here: Global Club Soccer Rankings

In terms of next season’s opponents, it has us ahead of Southampton, Watford, Burnley, Palace and Norwich. Also ahead of West Brom and Sheffield United, who were Premier League last season. Very narrowly behind Wolves and Fulham.

As an example of the point Rasmus was making, the gap between Barnsley and Sheffield United is negligible.

In 19/20 Sheffield United were 9th in the PL and Barnsley were saved from relegation to L1 because of Wigan’s points deduction. The squads for this season were very similar.

 

[AB]

I think his case is supported by data.

If you've followed the little that Matthew Benham has said in various interviews over the years, similarly Rasmus, you will know that one of the tools used by Smartodds is a statistical table that ranks all European clubs. I see no reason to think this is not still the case and that it would have had considerable refinement in the algorithms that underpin it.

It must be this 'league table' that indicates the relative groupings of clubs in their national leagues and that those groupings show overlaps between divisions.

The quality overlaps probably inform recruitment decisions. For instance if you’re a Championship club with ambitions of promotion and then staying up, if you have strong data to say there’s a degree of comparability between the bottom two thirds PL, Championship and top end L1, buying a L1 striker who has stellar stats at that level is a no brainer. If you don’t have that data or don’t have confidence in it, you suck your teeth and miss out.

There are probably also overlaps lower down- so buying Gray from the Conference winners and Hogan from L2 was not blind optimism ahead of a first season in the Championship. But we’d go a dozen or more purchases in from those levels now before finding someone who’d make the step up in less than 3 years and multiple loans (eg today we would not do what Newcastle did in pulling 19 year old Toney from L2).

 

[ruislip bee]

We will have to get used to comments like what Richards said 70% of pundits are uneducated football wise outside of the PL most fans are the same.

We can go under the radar and surprise them all.

Again!

 

[Mick.C]

Rebus calls it right - in 2014 the football played by Wolves and us were the equivalent of low Premier league levels.
Chris Hughton mentioned when managing Brighton that Brentford play Premier League football but the difficulty was getting out the Championship.
Remember Rasmus is quoting the model where there is no league, Watford the season before last when relegated was performing and would have struggled 2 tiers below The Premier league.

I don’t think he did over egg it. Our 2014 promotion season saw games in the back end of that campaign that wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Premier League.