538 Prediction Table

[Edmundo]

The only time a team with 90 points wasn't promoted from the Championship was 1998 (unlucky Sunderland!). We can afford to drop 21 points between now and the end of the season and still end up with 90. So 10 wins and 10 draws almost certainly sees us across the line. For every two defeats, we have to turn a draw into a win.

And there are many examples of when 80 or even less than that was enough to secure second place.

Just need to keep our nerve ... and our players fit!

 

[Wooburn Bee]

The only time a team with 90 points wasn't promoted from the Championship was 1998 (unlucky Sunderland!). We can afford to drop 21 points between now and the end of the season and still end up with 90. So 10 wins and 10 draws almost certainly sees us across the line. For every two defeats, we have to turn a draw into a win.

And there are many examples of when 80 or even less than that was enough to secure second place.

Just need to keep our nerve ... and our players fit!

On paper before season began you would think that games behind closed doors, with no particular home and away advantage, would favour the stronger teams and hence points achieved by top three for four sides could mean that more than 90 points are required. At moment it doesn’t seem to be particularly playing out that way although season onkynjust iver half way through. Maybe the compensating factor is the more concertina season which is taking its toll on teams and squads causing strange results?

Us and Bournemouth on their day are probably the two best technical teams and hence the behind closed doors works in favour until hit a dip, or mental pressure takes over, and no crowd to energize or act as 12th man.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

That is all!

 

[PhilE]

View attachment 24092

That is all!

54% chance of Top, 78% chance of Top2...and if care 99%+ of Top 6.

 

[SmiffyBee]

Today's win puts us up to 2 points per game

27 played
54 points

 

[Gazza Bee]

Today's win puts us up to 2 points per game

27 played
54 points

Thanks Carol..

 

[Indian Bee]

Took us 32 games last year when we drew 1-1 home to Leeds for us to reach 54 points. We have reached that this season after only 27 games. Also after the Leeds game last year we only picked up 3 points in our next 4 games.

 

[Gazza Bee]

Took us 32 games last year when we drew 1-1 home to Leeds for us to reach 54 points. We have reached that this season after only 27 games. Also after the Leeds game last year we only picked up 3 points in our next 4 games.

Yep we had 57 points after 36 games but winning 8 in a row helps. Feel that we will need 86 points to finish top 2 though.

 

[Nada Bee]

Need 13 wins.

taking a look at our last 19 games, I’m counting 10 shoulds.

this is also taking into account Swansea and Norwich both keep up their current PPP.

long way to go.

 

[TeeJayBee]

Rather satisfying result, bordering on epic really, a score line I could never have dreamed of. A clutch of great counter attacking goals, and Raya made some stonking saves.

A few ESBs tonight, I should lose the ability to control my legs by about 7.30pm ?

Colin, your men took one hell of a beating ?
View attachment 24105

Is that going to be deep fried?

 

[GlasgowBee]

Is that going to be deep fried?

It could do with being moved by a moderator to the actual match thread, I wondered where it had got too ? ?

 

[Edmundo]

Your wish ....

 

[Nada Bee]

35 more points required from 18 games.

1.94 points per game required.

or 10 wins, 5 draws from 18 games.

can we do that?

 

[Invipai]

87% ?

 

[Gazza Bee]

35 more points required from 18 games.

1.94 points per game required.

or 10 wins, 5 draws from 18 games.

can we do that?

We wont need 92 IMHO - I've said 86 for a while and am sticking to that prediction. 10 more wins will definitely be enough.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

 

[Invipai]

I think we're quite fortunate that Bournemouth had that tumble...it's alarming to see how quickly they dropped off! They easily could have been up there with us if they'd had a manager who could have dealt with things when they started going wrong.

 

[Aussie Bee]

In the next 15 fixtures we played Norwich currently 2nd on Mar 4th - and Blackburn currently 8th on Mar 13th - other than those two games all the other fixtures are against teams 10th or worst until Bournemouth (6th) on April 29th.

I reckon we will win promotion sometime in mid April !!!

 

[lionel2011]

2.38 points per game please - gives us 100, that'll do.

I know this is a bit far fetched but in March 2014 I wrote a similar message targeting 100 points and we were promoted.

 

[AB]

In the next 15 fixtures we played Norwich currently 2nd on Mar 4th - and Blackburn currently 8th on Mar 13th - other than those two games all the other fixtures are against teams 10th or worst until Bournemouth (6th) on April 29th.

I reckon we will win promotion sometime in mid April !!!

My main concern is that a run of games against lower teams might see several parking the bus in a desperate attempt to grind out draws. Wycombe will have shown the folly of having a go. We’ve not really played a genuinely negative purely defensive opponent for quite a while, when we last did we were ourselves very conservative in trying to avoid the 1-0s of last season so we haven’t got a good yardstick for how we’d handle one now.

Teams challenging for the top 6 will try to play and that’ll leave them open for us to pick off.

 

[Invipai]

I would say that coming from 1-0 down to win for the last three games is a pretty good indicator that we're handling going a goal down much better this year. Boro under Warnock are a prime example of a team where we'd lose 1-0 last year, so I do think we can handle it much better this year.

I don't expect all of the lower teams to be as easy as our recent results have suggested, but I would be confident in a lot of them.

 

[AB]

I would say that coming from 1-0 down to win for the last three games is a pretty good indicator that we're handling going a goal down much better this year. Boro under Warnock are a prime example of a team where we'd lose 1-0 last year, so I do think we can handle it much better this year.

I don't expect all of the lower teams to be as easy as our recent results have suggested, but I would be confident in a lot of them.

Yes, maybe we’d play openly enough to cause doubt in unconfident teams about whether they were doing the right thing in burning all their energy just to stop us scoring. The run of wins from 1-0 down starts to look a bit of a rope a dope strategy even though we’d not have wanted to concede, doing so has an effect on opponents’ resolve to stick to their game plan. Float like a butterfly, sting like a Bee!

 

[Vid]

We saw Reading running away at the start of the season and recently Norwich. Now that it's us , lets buzz off.

 

[Ealing Bee]

My main concern is that a run of games against lower teams might see several parking the bus in a desperate attempt to grind out draws.

You might be right.

On the other hand, much more of this and they might start looking at Brentford and decide: "Realistically we're not going to get a result there", and so keep their resources for the more winnable "six pointers" against the teams round them?

Certainly if we get more Covid/weather cancellations etc, meaning two games a week (or even five a fortnight), they may be forced to "pick and choose" which they go for.

Small squads and risk of injury to key personnel from overplaying could be another factor.

 

[Nada Bee]

Swansea have a fairly easy run of games over the next half dozen games.

BUT

They then play

Stoke away
Boro
Blackburn away
Muff away
Millwall away
Reading away
Watford away

from March onwards in their final bakers dozen games Or so. I would say that’s a tougher run in that we have.

 

[Ashford Bees]

Relegate the Brummies and get promoted on Easter Monday would be a dream

 

[Ashford Bees]

Beating Watford to win the league would also be nice

 

[BEEcool]

Enjoying the enthusiasm of who’s got who let to play and run in fixtures of each team etc but seems a little premature. We’ve only played 5 teams twice (Swansea, Reading, Boro, Luton and Wycombe).

 

[nick logan]

Enjoying the enthusiasm of who’s got who let to play and run in fixtures of each team etc but seems a little premature. We’ve only played 5 teams twice (Swansea, Reading, Boro, Luton and Wycombe).

strange post , shall we not talk about football until its all decided then

 

[BEEcool]

strange post , shall we not talk about football until its all decided then

No. Just at this stage which teams we and our our main rivals have played twice seems a better measure of who’s got the tougher fixtures to come?

 

[Nada Bee]

No. Just at this stage which teams we and our our main rivals have played twice seems a better measure of who’s got the tougher fixtures to come?

Norwich have an easier run in than us
Swansea have a harder run in than us

sorry for looking ahead. I’d suggest you leave this thread as it’s all about predictions?!

 

[BEEcool]

Norwich have an easier run in than us
Swansea have a harder run in than us

sorry for looking ahead. I’d suggest you leave this thread as it’s all about predictions?!

I agree regarding Norwich and Swansea based upon who they’ve each reached played twice (rather than scanning the 18 teams they have left to play).

Sorry to have angered anyone- wasn’t my intention!

 

[Nada Bee]

I agree regarding Norwich and Swansea based upon who they’ve each reached played twice (rather than scanning the 18 teams they have left to play).

Sorry to have angered anyone- wasn’t my intention!

its ok mate. I’d assume Swansea’s % on the prediction table is much lower than Norwich’s because of their final fixtures. So I think it all goes hand in hand

 

[Nada Bee]

Championship - Table calculator

Championship Table calculator

www.worldfootball.net

Just done this if you fancy a go.

It went to the last game of the season...

Forest, Coventry and Wycombe went down.

That would mean in the last 18 games we will go... 10 - 6 - 2

 

[Adam]

Championship - Table calculator

Championship Table calculator

www.worldfootball.net

Just done this if you fancy a go.

It went to the last game of the season...

Forest, Coventry and Wycombe went down.

That would mean in the last 18 games we will go... 10 - 6 - 2

View attachment 24178

Some Xg tables have Swansea as far down as 11th or 12th at the moment. Id be staggered if they got anywhere near 90 points.

 

[Nada Bee]

Some Xg tables have Swansea as far down as 11th or 12th at the moment. Id be staggered if they got anywhere near 90 points.

So would i, and it would would nothing for my anxiety but its based on pretty much the run in and current form - you cant count anything yet. just a bit of fun.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Norwich have an easier run in than us
Swansea have a harder run in than us

sorry for looking ahead. I’d suggest you leave this thread as it’s all about predictions?!

Championship - run-in analysis (soccerstats.com)

This also rates Norwich's run in as easier than ours but Swansea's more or less the same.

 

[AB]

Can’t be bothered to fill i

Championship - run-in analysis (soccerstats.com)

This also rates Norwich's run in as easier than ours but Swansea's more or less the same.

On that basis the prediction would be for Norwich to pick up 3-4 points on us which would be just enough to pip us to the title but for us to finish clear of Swansea in second.

 

[mhead bee]

We wont need 92 IMHO - I've said 86 for a while and am sticking to that prediction. 10 more wins will definitely be enough.

87 is the average for second place over the last 20 years or some thing.

 

[Invipai]

Because we can't just check this when we win....looking very tight now. Swansea moved above us after our loss, but have now gone below Watford with their loss. This could be very, very tight...although obviously the injuries to Toney and Henry aren't accounted for in this.

Good day for Norwich...

 

[mhead bee]

Watfords last 6 games look horrible.

We need to get winning the easier looking games and then it leaves thenm having to beat a lot of good teams at the end.

 

[cheshirebee]

Didn’t fecking predict the last 3 games did it.

 

[GABS]

Because we can't just check this when we win....looking very tight now. Swansea moved above us after our loss, but have now gone below Watford with their loss. This could be very, very tight...although obviously the injuries to Toney and Henry aren't accounted for in this.

Good day for Norwich...

View attachment 24255

Where has it put Swansea above us?

 

[Invipai]

Where has it put Swansea above us?

They moved above us after our loss, but then dropped back below us after they lost. So they were above us for about 3 hours.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Fist time this season that we have fallen below last season's prediction:

 

[FJBee]

Fist time this season that we have fallen below last season's prediction:

View attachment 24258

Interesting that it fell as much with the last game, as it did the two prior, given the other results weren't that bad for us this last game, Norwich & Watford aside.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Interesting that it fell as much with the last game, as it did the two prior, given the other results weren't that bad for us this last game, Norwich & Watford aside.

I suspect that was because we lost to a lower rated side than in the previous two games which offsets our rivals poor results

 

[Jay Bee]

After Sheff Wed (H) 3-0 and wins for other sides

Bees 58% to be promoted (was 56%)
Bees 45% to be in the top 2 (vs. chances for Norwich 84%, Watford 38%, Swansea 29%)

Interesting Swansea are made fourth favourites for top 2, vs. the GPG supercomputer which currently as them as second favourites after Norwich.

 

[badgerbee]

After Sheff Wed (H) 3-0 and wins for other sides

Bees 58% to be promoted (was 56%)
Bees 45% to be in the top 2 (vs. chances for Norwich 84%, Watford 38%, Swansea 29%)

Interesting Swansea are made fourth favourites for top 2, vs. the GPG supercomputer which currently as them as second favourites after Norwich.

......and Bet365 have us 2nd favourites to finish top 2, and 2nd favourites to be promoted.....

 

[Jay Bee]

Also worth noting somewhere stats based that we hit 60 points last night, just as we did after beating Sheff wed last season. That was the last game before the season stopped of course. Five matches earlier this season. Obviously it helps if we also win our next 7 in a row....