538 Prediction Table
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Holysmit
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AB
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538 Prediction Table
It turned out easy but after three defeats, especially the poorest one v Coventry, I wasn’t that confident. There’s nobody nearly as abject as Blackpool 14/15 or Hull from the second half of last season.
red_and_white
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538 Prediction Table
I don't think this has been updated following last night's results, but it is interesting to see that:
It's often rashly over-analysed after both a win or a loss, and context is thrown out of the window. For me as a fan, I readjust expectations when key players are out. For example, to not have Jansson, Henry, DaSilva against top of the league will significantly weaken the chances of getting a good result, and put in a top performance. It's still fine to get disappointed with performances and results, but in my humble opinion context is important to keep front of mind.
With that said, we can't shy away from the ultimate goal of top 2 , and therefore it's really important we navigate the fixtures before the international break where key players are out. By navigate I don't mean we have to win them all. With 3 of our "Prem ready" players sidelined, and Norgaard bedding back in, these are always going to be tough games, so I think we need to prepare for ups and downs in this period. We should recognise it won't be all fluid and perfect and remember that our rivals will have wobbles too. We just have to have less than them.
Then in the final 8 games we can be truly judged: At near full strength I think we'll have enough.
- We're favourite in every game until the end of the season
- There are 3 games where Watford's opponents are favourites over them (Cardiff, Norwich, and us)
- There are 6 games where Swansea's opponents are favourites over them (Blackburn, Bournemouth, Cardiff, Millwall, Reading, and Watford)
It's often rashly over-analysed after both a win or a loss, and context is thrown out of the window. For me as a fan, I readjust expectations when key players are out. For example, to not have Jansson, Henry, DaSilva against top of the league will significantly weaken the chances of getting a good result, and put in a top performance. It's still fine to get disappointed with performances and results, but in my humble opinion context is important to keep front of mind.
With that said, we can't shy away from the ultimate goal of top 2 , and therefore it's really important we navigate the fixtures before the international break where key players are out. By navigate I don't mean we have to win them all. With 3 of our "Prem ready" players sidelined, and Norgaard bedding back in, these are always going to be tough games, so I think we need to prepare for ups and downs in this period. We should recognise it won't be all fluid and perfect and remember that our rivals will have wobbles too. We just have to have less than them.
Then in the final 8 games we can be truly judged: At near full strength I think we'll have enough.
Kingston Bee
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538 Prediction Table
I am afraid you can go on about favourites in games all you want, bit like we were favourites to beat Barnsley or Coventry etc etc, it means nothing, all on paper, its what you do in the 90 minutes that count. Would not waste my energy looking at other teams, all we need to do is win our games, that is all we can influence.
Alex
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538 Prediction Table
Yep, if it doesn't seem to update then it means on the whole, results went the way they were expected to...
Had Swansea taken a 2 goal lead it probably would have been seen as fair enough and probably to expectations. It's just how they won that grates...
Had Swansea taken a 2 goal lead it probably would have been seen as fair enough and probably to expectations. It's just how they won that grates...
Jay Bee
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538 Prediction Table
Interesting, and the first three of those are all before the international break, in which they play 5 games in 15 days starting tomorrow. We'll see what they are made of over this spell!
Watford v Swansea on the last day of the season !!! is probably worth a forecasting thread in its own right, later on....
Jay Bee
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538 Prediction Table
after Norwich and wins for our rivals it's
Promotion 57% (was 67%)
Top 2 42% (was 57%)
Watford top 2 32%
Swansea top 2 24%
2% Barnsley and Bournemouth
1% Reading and Cardiff
Promotion 57% (was 67%)
Top 2 42% (was 57%)
Watford top 2 32%
Swansea top 2 24%
2% Barnsley and Bournemouth
1% Reading and Cardiff
Gazza Bee
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538 Prediction Table
Frankly I don't really look at any of these sites as they don't account for the things that can happen on the pitch like dodgy referring decisions or lapses in concentration by goalkeepers.
At the end of the day after 46 games we will finish were we deserve to based on the results so trying to read anything into % chances of finishing top 2 before then is an unnecessary addition to the already stressful mindset - well it is for me anyway...
At the end of the day after 46 games we will finish were we deserve to based on the results so trying to read anything into % chances of finishing top 2 before then is an unnecessary addition to the already stressful mindset - well it is for me anyway...
Guildford Bee
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538 Prediction Table
100%. The analysis is a reflection of what's happened in the past and takes no account of things like fatigue, relative depth of the squads etc etc.
They're useful for providing an insight into where we should be at the present if life and football was fairer but not so much in terms of predicting the future.
538 Prediction Table
yeah i dont like them at all, didnt we get to 80% only 2-3 weeks ago?
Gazza Bee
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538 Prediction Table
Quite - it changes after every game just the same as the league table so why bother? We were massive favourites to go up after 44 games last season and look what happened...
538 Prediction Table
We were about 89% likely to go up after 44 games last season. Looking back you'd say that's fair...we just landed in the 11%.
Prediction threads are just for speculation, but I enjoy looking at the stats side of the game as do others. Clearly on the pitch is what matters but it's good for getting a deeper look on the way things may pan out, other than the general speculation we may have. I'd say 538 is about right at the moment, where they think it will be a bit of a grandstand finish with the three clubs.
Prediction threads are just for speculation, but I enjoy looking at the stats side of the game as do others. Clearly on the pitch is what matters but it's good for getting a deeper look on the way things may pan out, other than the general speculation we may have. I'd say 538 is about right at the moment, where they think it will be a bit of a grandstand finish with the three clubs.
Edmundo
Whinging pom
538 Prediction Table
Curiously 538 currently predict us to finish third, below Watford. But they give us a higher chance of promotion and a lower chance of finishing in the playoff positions. I'm struggling to make sense of that.
red_and_white
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538 Prediction Table
It could be because we have a slightly higher chance than Watford of falling out of the top 6 with the remaining fixtures + current points on board. However if we were to be in playoffs, we are more marginally more likely than anyone else to win them
badgerbee
Mafeking Avenue........gets you there!!!!
538 Prediction Table
"Interesting" odds for the 2 Blackburn games this week from Bet365.
They have Blackburn at 6/4 to beat Swansea on Tuesday, with a Swans victory at 9/5.
For our game on Friday, it's 11/4 for a Blackburn win, and Evens for us.....
Seems like they think we're almost twice as likely to win there compared to Swansea.......
They have Blackburn at 6/4 to beat Swansea on Tuesday, with a Swans victory at 9/5.
For our game on Friday, it's 11/4 for a Blackburn win, and Evens for us.....
Seems like they think we're almost twice as likely to win there compared to Swansea.......
shepperton bee
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538 Prediction Table
I think the odds for Swansea winning at Blackburn depend on who Swansea appoint as the referee.
twickersbee
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It also shows us finishing a greater goal difference compared to Watford which could be reflected in our greater chance of promotion as compared to them.
Bigbee
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538 Prediction Table
That is very good . Do we know the ref yet ? It would be good to send him some messages about their sh*thousery and footage of their cheating before Tuesday
Wise old Bee
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Lozza
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Thank-you, I just laughed very loudly in an empty room!
WD19 BEE
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Vid
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538 Prediction Table
Oh fukk.
He was the truly gash referee we had when we lost 2-1 at Forest in 2019. One of the absolute worst.
Congratulations to Mr Cooper’s dad for arranging this.
Jay Bee
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538 Prediction Table
after all of the weekend's unfavourable results, our postponement and Blackburn 1 Swansea 1
Promotion 55% (was 57%)
Top 2 37% (was 42%)
Watford top 2 36% (was 32%)
Swansea top 2 27% (was 24%)
1% Reading
The field including Barnsley, <1% each
(Norwich 96%)
They have us tying on 84 points but with us having a better goal difference, and yet Watford in second. I assume they round the predicted points total for display purposes and Watford are a fraction of a point ahead on their model? E.g. Watford 84.2, Bees 83.9.
Promotion 55% (was 57%)
Top 2 37% (was 42%)
Watford top 2 36% (was 32%)
Swansea top 2 27% (was 24%)
1% Reading
The field including Barnsley, <1% each
(Norwich 96%)
This is still the case though the numbers are tighter now.
They have us tying on 84 points but with us having a better goal difference, and yet Watford in second. I assume they round the predicted points total for display purposes and Watford are a fraction of a point ahead on their model? E.g. Watford 84.2, Bees 83.9.
Jay Bee
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538 Prediction Table
Yes you have mentioned this on several occasions... Many have mentioned that this should not be required but I think aiming high is not the worst thing. I don't think we will get that many points tbh.
Jay Bee
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538 Prediction Table
What? I'm not salty / angry.
Just saying - with tongue in cheek, honest - that you've mentioned 92 points on these threads absolutely loads of times. And every time time I think, and others often say, "that's probably several more than we need". 538 currently think 86 would see us promoted by 2 points.
I am on board with the idea that aiming for 92 points is a nice ambition. But I don't think it is required which was your choice of words.
The next time promotion targets were mentioned I was actually going to reference "Nada bee's 92 points" in passing as a little joke but I don't want to prompt anyone to think I'm angry!
538 Prediction Table
Only playing mate I know I keep carping on about it. But 2 points per game will see us up.
I’d rather see us up with 2 games to go that sweat it out in early May!
There is nothing stopping this team going on a run like last season now. If we do. Well... time will tell.
538 Prediction Table
Except margin-call penalty decisions going against us. Imagine the mood on this board if the penalty call for the foul on Fosu had gone against us and if the ref had got the penalty call for a foul by MBS right.
Delbee
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538 Prediction Table
It will be interesting to see what the state of the table is today after this week fixtures. Away from the fixtures, message from friend whose Bournemouth Season Ticket holder , Cook out with Cruciate Ligaments .
13th March
Luton v Swansea
Bournemouth v Barnsley
Cardiff v Watford
16th March
Derby v Brentford
Rotherham v Watford
Bournemouth v Swansea
17th March
Wycombe v Barnsley
20th March
Brentford v Notts Forest
Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
Watford v Birmingham
Swansea vv Cardiff
13th March
Luton v Swansea
Bournemouth v Barnsley
Cardiff v Watford
16th March
Derby v Brentford
Rotherham v Watford
Bournemouth v Swansea
17th March
Wycombe v Barnsley
20th March
Brentford v Notts Forest
Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
Watford v Birmingham
Swansea vv Cardiff
beesbees_bfc
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538 Prediction Table
Out of interest, why have you included Barnsley’s fixtures but not Reading’s?
Delbee
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Jay Bee
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538 Prediction Table
After wins for us, Swansea and Watford yesterday and today
Promotion 57% (was 55%)
Top 2 40% (was 37%)
Watford top 2 39% (was 36%)
Swansea top 2 25% (was 27%)
Barnsley 1% (was <1%)
(Norwich 94%, was 96%)
Something relatively positive.
Promotion 57% (was 55%)
Top 2 40% (was 37%)
Watford top 2 39% (was 36%)
Swansea top 2 25% (was 27%)
Barnsley 1% (was <1%)
(Norwich 94%, was 96%)
Something relatively positive.
Holysmit
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538 Prediction Table
I think we just need to get through these next two games and be within in 3 points of promotion.
As after the international break we will be stronger then Watford and Swansea when our big players come back.
As after the international break we will be stronger then Watford and Swansea when our big players come back.
red_and_white
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538 Prediction Table
My thoughts exactly. I've literally said word for word same thing about being within 3 points after international break today.
I think that will give us favourites.
red_and_white
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538 Prediction Table
According to 538, we currently have 49% chance of promotion.
Our likely finishing position is broken down as:
1st: 1%
2nd: 24%
3rd: 44%
4th: 22%
5th: 6%
6th: 2%
7th: <1%
8th: <1%
Our likely finishing position is broken down as:
1st: 1%
2nd: 24%
3rd: 44%
4th: 22%
5th: 6%
6th: 2%
7th: <1%
8th: <1%
Ealing Bee
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538 Prediction Table
The Good News is that we seem to be guaranteed a Play-Off place.
While the Bad News is that we seem to be guar....
(You can fill it in yourselves)
538 Prediction Table
I found it weird that people were questioning our playoff status recently, there was no way we were going to finish 7th or so.
Obviously we hope to increase the 2nd spot chances, but 49% isn't bad. The playoffs would be less predictable than last season though, where I think the teams would be more evenly balanced, rather than the 'two good, two bad' we had last time round.
Obviously we hope to increase the 2nd spot chances, but 49% isn't bad. The playoffs would be less predictable than last season though, where I think the teams would be more evenly balanced, rather than the 'two good, two bad' we had last time round.
538 Prediction Table
There are too many imponderables for any meaningful prediction of the final order of the teams in the 2nd to 4th positions to be made. Watford have points on the board but have played a game more and have by far the hardest run-in, including matches against their two nearest challengers. Brentford and Swansea are in effect tied, with roughly equal chances of overtaking Watford. Norwich, as the 538 stats indicate, are 99 percent certain of promotion.
Hungerford Bee
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