538 Prediction Table

[Banana]

Thought we would have a thread for this Justice League, and THIS ONE ONLY!!!! Please do not post Bob's xG table in here.

Interesting that even after two matches we apparently already have the best defence in the league Predictably 3 of the top 4 are the relegated clubs. I can't see that being the case by the end of the season. Mind you, the rest of the table looks pretty ordinary.

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Will preserve the situation after 2 games here:

 

[PhilE]

What's more telling is the SPI index and in particular the gulf between 4th and 5th.

The ex-PL sides have a high value because of the sides they were losing to last year (but still scoring and getting an occassional result), but our's is remarkable as it was achieved by dominance over our peers.

 

[detours]

I do love this table, but I also question how accurate any algorithm can realistically be after two games played.

Can anyone explain how the SPI / Attack / Defence scores are calculated?

 

[PhilE]

I do love this table, but I also question how accurate any algorithm can realistically be after two games played.

Can anyone explain how the SPI / Attack / Defence scores are calculated?

Click on the 'How it Works' link. A large part of the prediction is based on the index and the expected results against other teams and their index, therefore not just this seasons results.

 

[detours]

Have to question the score being partially based on Transfermrkt – they've got Toney down as worth €400k despite listing us as having paid €5.6m.

Still, can't question the rest of it. I suppose there will be a swift redistribution in SPI over the next 10 games or so.

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Yes it takes a while to sortout and favourites to emerge although the three promoted teams were heavily favoured from the start. Here is ours and others for last season from fivethirtyeight:
- we should have crashed the party.

 

[PhilE]

- we should have crashed the party.

That point where our line touches Leeds line

 

[Invipai]

That period between the Leeds game and the Sheff Weds game were costly...

Anyway I could believe the 538 table for this season...it honestly doesn't look like a very strong division this year. The three relegated sides you can imagine all of them being up there, although from having watched some of them their performances haven't been massively convincing... The two clubs who I thought might join the 4 of us were Forest and Derby, and so far they're 5/5 losses...

If we fail to make the playoffs that'll be quite a big failure on our part IMO.

 

[Bristolian Bee]

 

[Hungerford Bee]

View attachment 23959

Nice consistent improvement in their rating of our chances:

 

[Banana]

Bournemouth look to have fallen off a cliff.

 

[PhilE]

Funny how Watfords loss has put Norwich back on top of the predicted table (for title). I assume because Norwich are now predicted to get a point from their remaining game against Watford that they were not previously

 

[Edmundo]

Funny how Watfords loss has put Norwich back on top of the predicted table (for title). I assume because Norwich are now predicted to get a point from their remaining game against Watford that they were not previously

But our chances of winning the Championship have actually gone up!

 

[Nada Bee]

Don’t like any of this. What was the highest % we got to last season of being promoted?

I only care when it’s 100%

 

[PhilE]

Don’t like any of this. What was the highest % we got to last season of being promoted?

I only care when it’s 100%

72%

 

[Invipai]

FiveThiryEight currently have us at 42% to win the league and 68% to go up automatically.

Obviously there is still a margin for error there but going up automatically 2 times out of 3 is good odds for now. Hopefully 4 or 6 points from the next two can raise those odds.

 

[Banana]

We are favourites in all the Justice Leagues that matter....

 

[nocoat]

72%

No way! It was higher than that I’m sure.

Banana ? tell someone off !

 

[nocoat]

Hopefully 4 or 6 points from the next two can raise those odds.

Probably better to raise the percentage chances or lower the odds rather than raising the odds

 

[Invipai]

Good point ?‍

 

[PhilE]

No way! It was higher than that I’m sure.

Banana ? tell someone off !

It was 72% on 15th July but that was before the WBA defeat (match 45) that meant we were in 3rd with a game in hand. It may have been slightly higher for those 24 hours but 538 does not hold the history for that date.

 

[nocoat]

It was 72% on 15th July but that was before the WBA defeat (match 45) that meant we were in 3rd with a game in hand. It may have been slightly higher for those 24 hours but 538 does not hold the history for that date.

I feel better now ! I thought we were about 90 percent at one stage

 

[Nada Bee]

I feel better now ! I thought we were about 90 percent at one stage

same with me if I’m honest. Thanks @PhilE

 

[PhilE]

I feel better now ! I thought we were about 90 percent at one stage

Ah it looks like we were...89% on morning of the 18th July (before our match 45). Was only for 24 hours though.

There is a snapshot on the wayback...
???

Championship Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Championship predictions

web.archive.org

 

[Invipai]

In all fairness 89% chance of going up after the WBA Hudders game does sound about right... and for a couple of 'what if' moments easily could have gone that way.

Up to us to drag that to 100% though. Us not having to chase from 12 points behind should help!

 

[Banana]

No way! It was higher than that I’m sure.

Banana ? tell someone off !

As if I would remember ?

 

[nocoat]

As if I would remember ?

Why would that prevent you telling someone off?!

 

[Hungerford Bee]

2019 - 2020 Bees promotion chances up to before game 45 when I gave up tracking

 

[Hungerford Bee]

Highest predicted promotion chance of any team this season (76%) Going to need to change the vertical axis soon

 

[Invipai]

538 isn't even updated yet so that's good ?

(Says last updated 4:40pm...assuming that is UK time)

 

[BFC1997]

Sorry to cite a different source than 538 but just thought it was worth bringing up the table after 26 games last season.

8 points and 2 places better off now, much clearer from the teams outside of the top six too.

With a game in hand on on the team directly above us and a game in hand on most of the chasing pack on the edge of the playoffs you’d have to say it looks really promising!

 

[Hungerford Bee]

538 isn't even updated yet so that's good ?

(Says last updated 4:40pm...assuming that is UK time)

US based site with timings in EST ( I think)

 

[Nada Bee]

The next 5 games will shape our season IMO.

 

[Nada Bee]

Sorry to cite a different source than 538 but just thought it was worth bringing up the table after 26 games last season.

8 points and 2 places better off now, much clearer from the teams outside of the top six too.

With a game in hand on on the team directly above us and a game in hand on most of the chasing pack on the edge of the playoffs you’d have to say it looks really promising!

View attachment 24028

just get 2 points per game. That’s the target!

 

[Invipai]

Sorry to cite a different source than 538 but just thought it was worth bringing up the table after 26 games last season.

8 points and 2 places better off now, much clearer from the teams outside of the top six too.

With a game in hand on on the team directly above us and a game in hand on most of the chasing pack on the edge of the playoffs you’d have to say it looks really promising!

And Hull in 9th, 18 points above the relegation zone, went down. Jesus Christ... ?‍

 

[BFC1997]

just get 2 points per game. That’s the target!

PPG so far -1.961538461538462. Continue that to the end of the season and we finish on 90 points.

 

[BFC1997]

And Hull in 9th, 18 points above the relegation zone, went down. Jesus Christ... ?‍

Yep, mad. You wouldn’t have bet on Cardiff and Forest effectively swapping places either.

 

[BFC1997]

The next 5 games will shape our season IMO.

I know what you mean, but every five game run feels like that.

 

[Byond]

@
BFC1997

when you look at cardiff forest and hull city in your 19/20 table
and which direction's they went
can imagine at least 1 doing same this year

 

[StreathamBee]

What were they saying at this point last season? And other seasons before that? Is that info available?

 

[Invipai]

What were they saying at this point last season? And other seasons before that? Is that info available?

Last year (Feb 1st) they had us at 68% chance to go up and they thought we'd go up on goal difference over West Brom with us both on 81 points. Honestly it was pretty close on that one... This was the period where we were closest to those top two though, before dropping off after a winless run in Feb.

Leeds they underestimated, along with Swansea, but that was fair enough as they'd only just signed Brewster.

2019 at the beginning of Feb they had us on course the finish 14th...

 

[Kingston Bee]

12 wins and 3 or 4 draws from 20 games will take us to 90 or 91 points, should be enough.

 

[AB]

12 wins and 3 or 4 draws from 20 games will take us to 90 or 91 points, should be enough.

Particularly as despite my feeling our unbeaten run will end every game I can’t see us losing 4 or 5 more games this season!

 

[Kingston Bee]

Particularly as despite my feeling our unbeaten run will end every game I can’t see us losing 4 or 5 more games this season!

Agree, we have some head room. I personally think the only team that can stop us is ourselves. Great opportunity.

 

[Ealing Bee]

And Hull in 9th, 18 points above the relegation zone, went down. Jesus Christ... ?‍

Hull sold their two best players by far in January (Bowen and Grosicki) and didn't even try to replace them, sending out entirely the wrong message. Their rookie manager, McCann, was in no position to protest and their (hated) owners were happy to allow him to take the flak instead of them, which he did in buckets, as they sank like a stone - 33 points in first half of season, 12 in the second!

Thing is, they kept him on and this season and despite the fact they've signed nobody of note this time, they're top of the division and FiveThirtyEight's favourite to go up (71% promotion, 40% the title):
League One Predictions

 

[Ealing Bee]

Should we be worried about our defence? (Well maybe not "worried", but a little concerned?)

We're clearly top scorers in the division on 48 (B'burn next best on 41), but five teams have conceded fewer than our 26, with Bournemouth also on 26 having played a game more.

And we've only kept one clean sheet (1-0 v Luton) in our last 9 games (7 wins and 2 draws), which might explain our signing of Winston Reid i.e. add experience and solidity?

I know the rest of the team have been scoring regularly, meaning even without Ivan's 20, our 28 remaining goals would still be more than 9 other teams. But what if (Heaven forbid) something were to keep Ivan out for a spell? As it stands, his goals have (theoretically) made the difference for 14 points gained so far. (And that's not counting his Assists, or sterling defensive work.)

I am a huge fan of Forss, but it's far too early to expect him to fill in for Ivan this season, meaning Ivan's absence would probably necessitate a new formation.

 

[liverbee]

Should we be worried about our defence? (Well maybe not "worried", but a little concerned?)

We're clearly top scorers in the division on 48 (B'burn next best on 41), but five teams have conceded fewer than our 26, with Bournemouth also on 26 having played a game more.

And we've only kept one clean sheet (1-0 v Luton) in our last 9 games (7 wins and 2 draws), which might explain our signing of Winston Reid i.e. add experience and solidity?

I know the rest of the team have been scoring regularly, meaning even without Ivan's 20, our 28 remaining goals would still be more than 9 other teams. But what if (Heaven forbid) something were to keep Ivan out for a spell? As it stands, his goals have (theoretically) made the difference for 14 points gained so far. (And that's not counting his Assists, or sterling defensive work.)

I am a huge fan of Forss, but it's far too early to expect him to fill in for Ivan this season, meaning Ivan's absence would probably necessitate a new formation.

Exciting though, these high-scoring matches, especially when we win. I thought that was what the owner was hoping for. I agree that a little tightening up is probably due and Winston, Christian and the younger backs can deliver.

 

[mhead bee]

12 wins and 3 or 4 draws from 20 games will take us to 90 or 91 points, should be enough.

When you look at it that way.
You tend to think you have to win every game to move away from those around you but when it’s twelve wins out of 20, wow.

just wish I was there.

 

[PhilE]

One of the interesting indicators on 538 is that Blackburn will finish 7th on 68 points. So by that measure at the moment we are 17 points from a top 6 finish - they have us as 98% for a top 6 place.

Of course I know how we all feel about playoffs but having spent much of the last 7 seasons eyeing a top 6 place, old habits die hard.

Hopefully top 2 finish beckons.

 

[westendbee]

12 wins and 3 or 4 draws from 20 games will take us to 90 or 91 points, should be enough.

But that’s 7 or 8 matches which we don’t win ... just imagine the Twitter meltdown!