Centre Backs??

[ade211]

Very interesting.

Interceptions Per Game

Craig - 2
Dean - 1.73
Tarkowski -2.23
Bidwell - 0.79
Odubajo - 1.3

Blocks Per Game

Craig - 1.1
Dean - 0.88
Tarkowski - 1.46
Bidwell - 0.29
Odubajo - 0

Clearances Per Game

Craig - 10
Dean - 11.5
Tarkowski - 9.31
Bidwell - 4.87
Odubajo - 1.91

Defensive Errors (Leading to Goal)
Craig - 3 (1)
Dean - 1 (1)
Tarkowski - 4 (1)
Bidwell - 0
Odubajo - 1 (0)

Passes (Success Rate)

Craig - 42.15 (81)
Dean - 41.56 (74)
Tarkowski - 41.54 (81)
Bidwell - 35.75 (75)
Odubajo - 32.83 (80)

Key Passes (Assists)

Craig - 3 (1)
Dean - 2 (1)
Tarkowski - 3 (0)
Bidwell - 13 (3)
Odubajo - 25 (3)

Tackles Won - Tackles Lost

Craig - 0.8 - 1.1
Dean - 1.38 - 0.5
Tarkowski - 1.15 - 1.08
Bidwell - 1.25 - 0.96
Odubajo - 1.13 - 0.87

Aerial Duels Won (%)

Craig - 70.37
Dean - 67.74
Tarkowski - 70.59
Bidwell - 49.04
Odubajo - 12.9

Total Duels Won (%)

Craig - 61.11
Dean - 66.09
Tarkowski - 63.16
Bidwell - 49.17
Odubajo - 53.97

Fouls Suffered Per Game

Craig - 0.7
Dean - 0.62
Tarkowski - 0.62
Bidwell - 0.92
Odubajo - 1.91

Fouls Committed Per Game

Craig - 0.5
Dean - 0.75
Tarkowski - 0.92
Bidwell - 0.83
Odubajo - 0.52

Red Cards

Craig - 1
Dean - 0
Tarkowski - 0
Bidwell - 0
Odubajo - 0

Yellow Cards

Craig - 5
Dean - 3
Tarkowski - 5
Bidwell - 4
Odubajo - 1

Excellent post. As you know I like to use the stats to supplement what I observe live as it guards against Confirmation bias, also called myside bias, is the tendency to search for, remember, or interpret information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses. From wiki.

 

[Salford Bee]

Excellent post. As you know I like to use the stats to supplement what I observe live as it guards against Confirmation bias, also called myside bias, is the tendency to search for, remember, or interpret information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses. From wiki.

If I could be bothered I would see how those stats compared with the rest of the division.

 

[ade211]

I posted somewhere today wher are defence ranks. Will try to find it.

 

[ade211]

In terms of defence we are ranked 9th, attack 5th and possession 7th.

Worryingly we have made 13 defensive errors leading to five goals. Only Blackoopl and Reading have a worst record.

 

[ade211]

For what it is worth being tight defensively is the strategy to adopt according to the stats on football. See for example 'The Numbers Game'. Basically conceding ten fewer goals gives you more points than scoring ten extra goals.

Source :https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=FchmOuJ4kjUC&pg=PT104&lpg=PT104&dq=number s+game+fewer+goals&source=bl&ots=qQTG_zVXTf&sig=mr _ob2YdE-6VbwqRo5lWQklXPcs&hl=en&sa=X&ei=sDChVMPWMKne7Aai14 GYDw&ved=0CC0Q6AEwBg#v=onepage&q=numbers%20game%20 fewer%20goals&f=false

I love our attacking style but I do think we need to tighten up defensively.

Button is ranked as either the first or secon best keeper in the league. For keepers who have played more than 20 matches he is second behind Gomes. That strikes me as being excellent.

For defenders who have played more than 14 games Craig is ranked 31 and Dean 8th. Bidwell is ranked 83. Odubajo is at 23 but this includes him playing in the midfield and rated in comparison with other midfield players. Source Squawka.
Reply

 

[Gee Bee]

Bidwell being 83 sums up the stats as inaccurate imho. One of the best left backs I have seen this season.

 

[Bangor Bee]

These stats are surely highly dubious: Has Harlee really made just one defensive error and have we really made just 13 in total? For stats to mean anything they have to be based on sound and consistent compilation, and in football I think that is still rare.

 

[IDontBeeLieveIt]

Indeed. However these stats are compiled is extremely questionable. I think it would be bonkers to rely on them to form the basis of any opinion. The lies, damn lies, and statistics phrase obviously springs to mind.
To pick the easy ones. Odubajo - 0 blocks. That's nonsense.
Aerial duels percentage would make TC look better than HD but that's probably only as TC would do a few easy ones and it's left to HD to dominate in the air. It's not even a contest as to who's better in that regard.

 

[ade211]

Bidwell being 83 sums up the stats as inaccurate imho. One of the best left backs I have seen this season.

Interesting. I don't know how the stats are complied but in the public domain they are the best you can get. Sure MW and his team have access to even better stats probably from owner's business.

This is hard to do but our subjective judgements are often biased so try to believe he is not as good as you think and then assess his contribution that way. Btw I think he is an excellent back but have tried recently to look at his contribution through a different lens.

 

[ade211]

Indeed. However these stats are compiled is extremely questionable. I think it would be bonkers to rely on them to form the basis of any opinion. The lies, damn lies, and statistics phrase obviously springs to mind.
To pick the easy ones. Odubajo - 0 blocks. That's nonsense.
Aerial duels percentage would make TC look better than HD but that's probably only as TC would do a few easy ones and it's left to HD to dominate in the air. It's not even a contest as to who's better in that regard.

Thanks for looking at this. The way we can all improve our understanding of the game is to look at the game live, test our judgements against the stats and question the stats.

I think we need to use the stats but not uncritically. We should test them against what we observe but be prepared to test our own judgements.

The slow realisation that crosses are relatively ineffective in creating goal scoring opportunities as are corners has seeped into the Premiership and increasingly into the Championship. As has playing wide players on the wrong wings. They cut in and shot as opposed to driving to the line. Jota is a good example of this.

So observation plus stats and critically, and be prepared to be wrong!

 

[ade211]

These stats are surely highly dubious: Has Harlee really made just one defensive error and have we really made just 13 in total? For stats to mean anything they have to be based on sound and consistent compilation, and in football I think that is still rare.

The list in Button two errors leading to a goal, then Craig, Dean and Tarkowski 1 each. The remaining eight errors did not lead to goals.

 

[IDontBeeLieveIt]

Yeah. Even if I'm a skeptic - I can see some use. It's just to use them effectively you'd be needing to do a LOT of work. Understand each measure fully, ie is it deemed a block only if the ball is goal-bound or does it include blocking a cross that's heading into the box but not at the goal, etc. Furthermore, consider that you could have someone with a load of tackles (making them look good), but it turns out it's because they keep messing up going forward, giving it away, and repeatedly having to make recovery tackles. Crosses never producing a good result might not be because they're useless, it could have been bad form from a striker, bad quality of a striker, poor quality of the cross, etc.
I'm sure there's a zillion examples we could all think of where the stat might not show a helpful picture.
Basically us lot trying to read into a simple stat or two would probably be unfair to any given player in many instances in my opinion

 

[Salford Bee]

Thanks for looking at this. The way we can all improve our understanding of the game is to look at the game live, test our judgements against the stats and question the stats.

I think we need to use the stats but not uncritically. We should test them against what we observe but be prepared to test our own judgements.

The slow realisation that crosses are relatively ineffective in creating goal scoring opportunities as are corners has seeped into the Premiership and increasingly into the Championship. As has playing wide players on the wrong wings. They cut in and shot as opposed to driving to the line. Jota is a good example of this.

So observation plus stats and critically, and be prepared to be wrong!

Going off topic, one stat I'm particularly interested in is to see which of our players would be what the Americans call a 'clutch player'. Namely someone that delivers in the big games (the classic example is Didier Drogba). I reckon ade211 and I could end up in a long conversation of statistics.

 

[ade211]

Going off topic, one stat I'm particularly interested in is to see which of our players would be what the Americans call a 'clutch player'. Namely someone that delivers in the big games (the classic example is Didier Drogba). I reckon ade211 and I could end up in a long conversation of statistics.

Thanks for this never heard the term clutch player. I think I read somewhere about the value of forwards who score the first goal against those who score when game won. Will look this up.

I am hoping to write a piece for a fanzine on stats and also trying to find posters who are interested in all this even if they think it is nonsense to meet up to discuss this area of football.

 

[ade211]

Yeah. Even if I'm a skeptic - I can see some use. It's just to use them effectively you'd be needing to do a LOT of work. Understand each measure fully, ie is it deemed a block only if the ball is goal-bound or does it include blocking a cross that's heading into the box but not at the goal, etc. Furthermore, consider that you could have someone with a load of tackles (making them look good), but it turns out it's because they keep messing up going forward, giving it away, and repeatedly having to make recovery tackles. Crosses never producing a good result might not be because they're useless, it could have been bad form from a striker, bad quality of a striker, poor quality of the cross, etc.
I'm sure there's a zillion examples we could all think of where the stat might not show a helpful picture.
Basically us lot trying to read into a simple stat or two would probably be unfair to any given player in many instances in my opinion

yes I would like also to know how they cacluate or count the instances. The figures are in the public domain but I can't find any help on how they are compied. Start of a long journey I suspect.

 

[ade211]

Found a few videos on opta data calculation. Very illuminating.

 

[ade211]

And this is for Squawka.

http://www.squawka.com/football-stats-definitions

Has blocks in it.

Hope it helps.

 

[7Bee]

Bidwell being 83 sums up the stats as inaccurate imho. One of the best left backs I have seen this season.

This sums up how subjective stats and opinion are as I haven't seen many left backs that are worse than him this season.

 

[Salford Bee]

Thanks for this never heard the term clutch player. I think I read somewhere about the value of forwards who score the first goal against those who score when game won. Will look this up.

I am hoping to write a piece for a fanzine on stats and also trying to find posters who are interested in all this even if they think it is nonsense to meet up to discuss this area of football.

Certainly an area I'm interested in. Just bought the book Moneyball.

 

[doctor_bee(MBBS)]

Ex pat fan here, from what I read/ see highlight wise etc, centre half seems to be our weakest position. How do the current trio compare to when we had Gavin Mahon and Sodje playing there? Personally thought they were a class act, Sodje with his mazy runs and Mahon so composed. Clearly we need a plan B too, big striker up there with Gray, get a bit more physicality in the team.

 

[sonofabee]

Ex pat fan here, from what I read/ see highlight wise etc, centre half seems to be our weakest position. How do the current trio compare to when we had Gavin Mahon and Sodje playing there? Personally thought they were a class act, Sodje with his mazy runs and Mahon so composed. Clearly we need a plan B too, big striker up there with Gray, get a bit more physicality in the team.

Difficult to compare as the attackers are a much better standard than Sodje was up against.
Personally reckon he'd be caught out when showboating as last man and he'd also pick up even more reds with his lunges.
All 3 centre backs are very decent and would coast through the league below and reckon Tarkowski will play in The Premiership one day. I reckon Tarkowski alongside Turner or Ivar at their best would be a formidable partnership at Championship level.

i repeat all 3 current centre backs have done a great job to date but the calibre of forwards means there is little or no margin for error so they have to improve further to become established players in this league.

 

[Salford Bee]

These stats are surely highly dubious: Has Harlee really made just one defensive error and have we really made just 13 in total? For stats to mean anything they have to be based on sound and consistent compilation, and in football I think that is still rare.

I believe we all know what that one defensive error is.

The problem is an 'error' is a subjective viewpoint that an independent observer would make a judgement on. It's not as clear-cut a statistic as goals scored.

Just to use as examples:

Is an overhit ball towards Gray an error?
Is a ball that is brilliantly cut out by the opposition an error?
Is a ball sliced out of play an error?
Is conceding a free kick an error?
Is slipping over an error?

 

[scruff puppy pup]

Thanks for this never heard the term clutch player.

It's a baseball term. It refers to how a hitter performs when he's batting and there are players in scoring position (i.e. on 2nd or 3rd base) and ignores the hits he accumulates when either the bases are empty or there is only someone on first. The reason being that a runner on 2nd or 3rd can generally score on a single, but a runner on 1st can't unless there is also an error. Or something like that.
Personally, I'm happy to go with our management teams' judgement over any stat.

 

[scruff puppy pup]

I believe we all know what that one defensive error is.

The problem is an 'error' is a subjective viewpoint that an independent observer would make a judgement on. It's not as clear-cut a statistic as goals scored.

Just to use as examples:

Is an overhit ball towards Gray an error?
Is a ball that is brilliantly cut out by the opposition an error?
Is a ball sliced out of play an error?
Is conceding a free kick an error?
Is slipping over an error?

Your examples illustrate the impracticality/silliness of trying to translate one sport's practices into another's.
In baseball you have an offficial scorer at the game who decides there and then what is an error. Errors are all matters of misfielding. Hitters don't make errors.
And baseball isn't a game of ebb and flow. Football is.
But try telling that to the statistics junkies.

 

[Bangor Bee]

Ex pat fan here, from what I read/ see highlight wise etc, centre half seems to be our weakest position. How do the current trio compare to when we had Gavin Mahon and Sodje playing there? Personally thought they were a class act, Sodje with his mazy runs and Mahon so composed. Clearly we need a plan B too, big striker up there with Gray, get a bit more physicality in the team.

It's probably fair to say that the defence has not been improved to the same extent as midfield, but Tarkowski is a class act who I would prefer over Mahon and Sodje or even Turner, and he will doubtless improve further with more experience. Harlee and Tony Craig are both useful players but if we want to challenge for promotion we need another dominant player with some speed in the middle of defence.

 

[mhead bee]

Bidwell being 83 sums up the stats as inaccurate imho. One of the best left backs I have seen this season.

A great example of

"Confirmation bias, also called myside bias, is the tendency to search for, remember, or interpret information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses. From wiki."

 

[mhead bee]

I believe we all know what that one defensive error is.

The problem is an 'error' is a subjective viewpoint that an independent observer would make a judgement on. It's not as clear-cut a statistic as goals scored.

Just to use as examples:

Is an overhit ball towards Gray an error?
Is a ball that is brilliantly cut out by the opposition an error?
Is a ball sliced out of play an error?
Is conceding a free kick an error?
Is slipping over an error?

Is passing the ball straight to the Fulham midfielder on the edge of the box an error?

 

[mhead bee]

Only 7 teams have conceded more goals then us this season, nobody in the top 13 has conceded more goals than us. I think that is the only stat we need worry about.

 

[sonofabee]

Only 7 teams have conceded more goals then us this season, nobody in the top 13 has conceded more goals than us. I think that is the only stat we need worry about.

Norwich, Boro and Ipswich account for 11 goals and where we went behind and chased the game and conceded more.
Agree we need to cut out silly individual mistakes but kind of a price we pay for attempting to play football from the back.
It's why we've won more than we've lost but can be costly at times as well.

 

[ade211]

Your examples illustrate the impracticality/silliness of trying to translate one sport's practices into another's.
In baseball you have an offficial scorer at the game who decides there and then what is an error. Errors are all matters of misfielding. Hitters don't make errors.
And baseball isn't a game of ebb and flow. Football is.
But try telling that to the statistics junkies.

No I don't mind being told these things. I think football stats is still relatively new and for one I am still learning how to use them. Opta ans Squakwa have details of how they compile their data with opta having a video that explains how they do it. I find this interesting.

And I am only too happy to let our management team make the calls. That said I quite enjoy this debate. Hope others do too.

 

[GuyBee]

Bidwell being 83 sums up the stats as inaccurate imho. One of the best left backs I have seen this season.

Maybe, but that's not the only view. I am a big Bidders fan, but my old man is convinced that he lets too many people and crosses in from his side. He believes he doesnt close down quickly enough.

I would also argue he let the Cardiff player get in front of him for their first goal, and that he might have done a better job of stopping Ipswich's 3rd. Maybe one of the hudders goals too. There have been other instances as well, cant recall them at the moment

 

[IslandBee]

Maybe, but that's not the only view. I am a big Bidders fan, but my old man is convinced that he lets too many people and crosses in from his side. He believes he doesnt close down quickly enough.

I would also argue he let the Cardiff player get in front of him for their first goal, and that he might have done a better job of stopping Ipswich's 3rd. Maybe one of the hudders goals too. There have been other instances as well, cant recall them at the moment

Your dad has plenty of grist for his mill on the goalcam from the Wolves game.

 

[Mr Tree]

Thanks for this never heard the term clutch player.

They use it in basketball quite often too - not sure where the original meaning of "clutch" comes from though... Anyway it's about performing in the high-pressure situations. So there is an "advanced stat" in the NBA which measures players' shooting percentages in the last 3mins of games when the score is within 5 (or so, can't remember - but basically ruling out late-game situations in matches which are already over, really). It does help to highlight some players who step up, and some who shy away from the big moments.

i've been looking out for some mentions in articles about stats vs "the eye test", but haven't found anything yet. the guy does like to point out some "interesting" stats too and then point out the small sample size ("worth keeping an eye on whether this will be a long-term trend") or "noise" (which would be things like simply pointing out the Bees' high numbers of goals conceded without taking into account the three big defeats - how do our goals per game compare when you take Norwich, Boro and Ipswich out? but then, everyone's would look better if you threw their worst three games out... etc etc...)

as you often mention, the stats are "interesting", but i do agree with points that they don't "work" so well in football - or, at least, that we'll see them being refined over the next few years. on the other hand, i think cricket could make a lot more use of stats than it currently does....

 

[Salford Bee]

Your examples illustrate the impracticality/silliness of trying to translate one sport's practices into another's.
In baseball you have an offficial scorer at the game who decides there and then what is an error. Errors are all matters of misfielding. Hitters don't make errors.
And baseball isn't a game of ebb and flow. Football is.
But try telling that to the statistics junkies.

That was the intention to illustrate the impracticality of a 'subjective' statistic. I am someone that is interested in the statistics but acknoweledge they have their limitations.

Is passing the ball straight to the Fulham midfielder on the edge of the box an error?

As I mentioned that is the error I'm sure that is clocked against Harlee.

They use it in basketball quite often too - not sure where the original meaning of "clutch" comes from though... Anyway it's about performing in the high-pressure situations. So there is an "advanced stat" in the NBA which measures players' shooting percentages in the last 3mins of games when the score is within 5 (or so, can't remember - but basically ruling out late-game situations in matches which are already over, really). It does help to highlight some players who step up, and some who shy away from the big moments.

i've been looking out for some mentions in articles about stats vs "the eye test", but haven't found anything yet. the guy does like to point out some "interesting" stats too and then point out the small sample size ("worth keeping an eye on whether this will be a long-term trend") or "noise" (which would be things like simply pointing out the Bees' high numbers of goals conceded without taking into account the three big defeats - how do our goals per game compare when you take Norwich, Boro and Ipswich out? but then, everyone's would look better if you threw their worst three games out... etc etc...)

as you often mention, the stats are "interesting", but i do agree with points that they don't "work" so well in football - or, at least, that we'll see them being refined over the next few years. on the other hand, i think cricket could make a lot more use of stats than it currently does....

That's my reading of a 'clutch' player, namely a 'big moment' player that produces the goods when the pressure is on.

I've been reading Moneyball at the moment and it is interesting that only one player (Nick Swisher) was approved by both the stats people and the 'old school' scouts.

I think there are statistics that we now look at today more than we did before - namely pass completion. Over the coming years there may be different metrics used to judge a player different to what happened before. We've moved on from the days, pretty much, where a player was ignored because of their height.

Cricket is certainly an easier sport to look at statistics. I have a theory, admittedly not thoroughly tested, that a wicket in the first 10 overs is the equivalent of 10 runs in the last 10 overs.

Peter Moores is very much a student of Moneyball and they do use statistics when plotting how to bowl, not that they put it in the right area. I think in one of Strauss' books it said that if you bowl at Mike Hussey in one area he averages 12 and in another he averages considerably higher.

 

[Full Metal Jacket]

All three players have done us proud over the last 12 months. Let's not jump on their backs the moment they have a slight dip in form or make a mistake.

 

[beebopalula]

Maybe, but that's not the only view. I am a big Bidders fan, but my old man is convinced that he lets too many people and crosses in from his side. He believes he doesnt close down quickly enough.

I would also argue he let the Cardiff player get in front of him for their first goal, and that he might have done a better job of stopping Ipswich's 3rd. Maybe one of the hudders goals too. There have been other instances as well, cant recall them at the moment

To be fair I don't think he always has decent protection in front of him.

 

[red_and_white]

Would be interesting to see a straw poll for the preferred current partnership. Is it possible to add a poll for this?

Craig and Dean
Craig and Tarkowski
Tarkowski and Dean

Sorry, I don't know how (or indeed if i can).

 

[hanworthbee]

Really awful first half, luckily for us they were horrendous infront if goal.much better second half but at the moment you could drop either of them for tony.need david weir to have a word with them about defending...

 

[shouldbee]

Would be interesting to see a straw poll for the preferred current partnership. Is it possible to add a poll for this?

Craig and Dean
Craig and Tarkowski
Tarkowski and Dean



Why don't you start one then ?...........just be thankful it's not Bennett and Phillips

Sorry, I don't know how (or indeed if i can).

 

[thenightfly]

Really awful first half, luckily for us they were horrendous infront if goal.much better second half but at the moment you could drop either of them for tony.need david weir to have a word with them about defending...

Did Rotherham not have three one on ones in first half? Perhaps four? I can't recall a visiting team missing such sitters. We had one.

Dean in his Beesplayer interview said they abandoned the offside trap for the second half and were tighter for it.

 

[Markybee]

Did Rotherham not have three one on ones in first half? Perhaps four? I can't recall a visiting team missing such sitters. We had one.

Dean in his Beesplayer interview said they abandoned the offside trap for the second half and were tighter for it.

No. They had Hamill in if Derbyshire had played the right pass...and Smallwood through in which he shot tamely. 2 IIRC.

 

[Oldmead]

Confidence means a lot in all positions but perhaps especially at CH or keeper. I watched Tarky closely first half and he did not want the ball, he was done for pace by their forward in the first 10 minutes and you could see his body language change from there in. I'm not knocking him as I rate him highly but his body shape also appears to have changed...he has definitely gained weight and was flat footed throughout. We need an option here to keep him and Dean on their toes.

 

[BURFORD BEE]

Would be interesting to see a straw poll for the preferred current partnership. Is it possible to add a poll for this?

Craig and Dean
Craig and Tarkowski
Tarkowski and Dean

Sorry, I don't know how (or indeed if i can).

At the moment my answer would be None of the above!

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

Poll added. I suppose i should have put "none of them" as an option as well. Not sure if i can edit this. For me Craig and Dean slightly edge JT at the min. A new CB is required though.

 

[ruislip bee]

Dean and Craig for me. Tarky has been very poor last couple of games.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Several people commenting on Tarkies weight gain, with all the stats we prepare and fitness checks I am surprised he has been allowed to let this slip.

 

[jlove]

Several people commenting on Tarkies weight gain, with all the stats we prepare and fitness checks I am surprised he has been allowed to let this slip.

I'd like to know how much weight he's gained. Much of it is going to be in people's imaginations, I think.

 

[GP200]

I'd like to know how much weight he's gained. Much of it is going to be in people's imaginations, I think.

.............yep............same as Paul Hayes massive weight gains.............

 

[Jersey Bee]

Tarky is the one who could play at the next level. Give him a chance to get back to form, long break out. Our passing style needs a player of his quality.

Very strong for his age.

Personally I would stick with Dean and Tarky.

 

[TW3Bee]

Where's the fourth option of all three?