Mark Flekken (Closed Thread)

[detours]

So what does -4 mean then ?

Post shot expected goals (psxg) is different to expected goals (xg) because it takes into account whether the shot was on target or not. If the shot was on target it gives it a score based on where the shot was aimed in the goal.

The -4 you are asking about is post shot expected goals against the amount of goals a goalkeeper has actually conceded.

Basically, if you've conceded 14 psxg but only 10 actual goals you'd get a score of +4 (or 4 more goals saved than expected).

If you've conceded 10 psxg but 14 actual goals you'd get a score of -4 (or 4 more goals conceded than expected).

If you scroll up to my post above I've given a few examples of how psxg can be misleading.

There's no doubt that Flekken has statistically underperformed so far this season on this metric, but the club knows better than most that you don't just look at data in a vacuum. Human eyes need to be involved otherwise you might as well sack Thomas Frank and get ChatGPT to pick the team.

 

[JosephG764]

You're saying "he's not preventing goals that he should" -- I don't think anyone with a data background would put it in those terms though.

Post shot expected goals (minus goals against) is a useful measure, but it can still be very misleading. Just to take a few examples:

• The Luton game, Flekken was given a Post Shot Expected Goal score of 0.1. That's 0.9 goals he "should" have saved.
• Same with Forest, given a PSXG score of 0.1 but the header has flown in the net, and that's another 0.9 goals.
• Tottenham is PSXG of 1.1 but he's conceded 2 goals, that's another 0.9 goals.
• Against West Ham he got PSXG score of 1.2 but conceded 2, so that's 0.8 more added to goals he "should" have saved.

From those 4 games he's got a score of +3.5 (psxg minus goals against). That's 3.5 "goals he should have saved" as you put it.

Now, I've seen all those goals, and (perhaps Forest freak header aside) I wouldn't expect Flekken to make any of those saves... I'd even go so far as to argue that most top keepers don't make those saves majority of the time.

There are really fine margins at play here.

He's very unlikely to have been unlucky on every one of the low xG shots that have been taken against him, if that's what you're trying to imply.

 

[Old B]

Wouldn’t it be great to go back to the days where we supported our clubs, our players and made our own minds up as to how we saw things on the day, too much excessive FM stuff, xx, over analysis by people “interpreting” data they probably don’t understand.

Before anyone starts I hated watching Keith Bowen, the Trolley and one or two others, dread to think how they would have been treated if they were playing in todays era.

 

[detours]

He's very unlikely to have been unlucky on every one of the low xG shots that have been taken against him, if that's what you're trying to imply.

We could have a chat about data, but I'm not sure how productive it would be seeing as you're not even referring to the correct stat.

I said in my post above that he has statistically underperformed on psxg thus far, that's not in question.

I've also given four concrete examples that on paper are given very low psxg scores, but in reality are not saves a goalkeeper would be expected to make.

You're welcome to do your own analysis. I'm just pointing out that data only tells half the story — "Flekken is statistically crap" is what's actually being implied, and that's not something a data person would ever say.

 

[Old B]

Or alternatively the selected stat means he is not as good as his peers, the he is crap, he is sh*t type of comments are unworthy of this forum and IMHO those making these type of overreactive statement should stick to X or Facebook. Christ we have seen enough of real crap in our rise up the ranks and no way does MF begin to compare to that pile. Get behind him FFS.

 

[detours]

Christ we have seen enough of real crap in our rise up the ranks and no way does MF begin to compare to that pile. Get behind him FFS.

? Amen to that

 

[JosephG764]

We could have a chat about data, but I'm not sure how productive it would be seeing as you're not even referring to the correct stat.

I said in my post above that he has statistically underperformed on psxg thus far, that's not in question.

I've also given four concrete examples that on paper are given very low psxg scores, but in reality are not saves a goalkeeper would be expected to make.

You're welcome to do your own analysis. I'm just pointing out that data only tells half the story — "Flekken is statistically crap" is what's actually being implied, and that's not something a data person would ever say.

Your examples suggest he has been unlucky, and you have created a narrative around it. That's fine, but statistically I am saying he is unlikely to be unlucky in all the low xG shots faced.

 

[Jago16]

Flekken has been absolutely fine. The ever changing state of the defence does not help him. Very interested to see him play those long arrowed balls into Toney next Month

 

[Lozza]

Personally, I'm a fan of MF. I'm also an optimist re most things BFC. But it does worry me how members of this forum are shot down for making criticisms during a discussion. It's the GPG, not Pravda.
Nor is it impossible or traitorous to express a thoughtful criticism online on a Tuesday and then support the team wholeheartedly on the weekend.

 

[James30]

Or alternatively the selected stat means he is not as good as his peers, the he is crap, he is sh*t type of comments are unworthy of this forum and IMHO those making these type of overreactive statement should stick to X or Facebook. Christ we have seen enough of real crap in our rise up the ranks and no way does MF begin to compare to that pile. Get behind him FFS.

Talk about a over exaggeration …

 

[birdy67]

Personally, I'm a fan of MF. I'm also an optimist re most things BFC. But it does worry me how members of this forum are shot down for making criticisms during a discussion. It's the GPG, not Pravda.
Nor is it impossible or traitorous to express a thoughtful criticism online on a Tuesday and then support the team wholeheartedly on the weekend.

No one has a problem with constructive criticism on here. But some of the crap that's written about Mark Flekken is well over the top. When we beat Luton 3-1 the doom mongers on here were focussing on Luton's goal and inexplicably blamed Flekken for it. There were multiple posters criticising him. Meanwhile over on the Vitaly Janelt thread there hadn't been a post for around 2 weeks and the mistake that lead to Flekken's goal was entirely Vitaly's.

I'm not suggesting that everyone should have piled on VJ as I just don't get why anyone feels the need to criticise any of our players. If someone can show me one single benefit to doing this then I'm all ears, but I'm very much of the opinion that it's best not to say anything if you can't find something positive to say.

 

[detours]

Your examples suggest he has been unlucky, and you have created a narrative around it. That's fine, but statistically I am saying he is unlikely to be unlucky in all the low xG shots faced.

@W13 Bee said "the stats are there for all to see. He is not preventing goals that he should" and presented the PSxG-GA stats as their evidence.

All I did was took the 4 games with the highest PSxG-GA disparity. I actually overlooked the Everton game which was the highest disparity (+1.5) . So the 5 games with the highest PSxG-GA disparity account for +5 goals he statistically "should have saved".

That's 5 games where you'd look at the data and say "Flekken has massively underperformed". But by the same token, Thomas Frank or the goalkeeping coach watching those 5 games may well have said "We wouldn't expect Flekken to save any of those goals, therefore he's performed well".

I'm not creating a narrative. I'm agnostic towards the statistics, because I'm not really qualified to interpret them. I'm just saying that picking one data set to support a sweeping statement like "He is not preventing goals that he should" is a very superficial way of looking at Flekken's overall performance.

 

[Freebee]

It's a tough gig for MF.

He replaced Raya who was well liked/loved,some people just can't let it go and will forever compare the two.Raya is going through the same thing now and you can see how all the doubt,debate and negativity is affecting his game.He's form is nowhere near as good as it was with us where he was trusted and supported.

In Raya's time here he never had to play in a team so depleted by injuries,he played with an ever improving squad and in a division below,yet he was still a bit shaky early on and even when he was established,he was capable of mistakes.

MF is doing fine considering we have a much weakened team and he's not perfect but neither are the players infront of him,in reality who is.Stop scrutinising and get behind him.

Raya doesn't live here anymore get over it.

 

[JosephG764]

Personally, I'm a fan of MF. I'm also an optimist re most things BFC. But it does worry me how members of this forum are shot down for making criticisms during a discussion. It's the GPG, not Pravda.
Nor is it impossible or traitorous to express a thoughtful criticism online on a Tuesday and then support the team wholeheartedly on the weekend.

Very well said, I was thinking similar. Quite often this board doesn't feel like the discussion forum that it could (and should) be.

 

[nick logan]

So what does -4 mean then ?

Your school Brentford positivity exam score

 

[James30]

Your school Brentford positivity exam score

?

 

[Indian Bee]

Just seen the highlights on sky -part of me is thinking could he has come out and claimed the ball for their first goal? I think yes.

But where was the marking if Lemina hadn't scored there was a player behind him.

 

[ChertseyBee]

I’ve always been and continue to be hugely supportive of Flekken, but interestingly, I took someone along to the game tonight who had never been to a Brentford game before and who knows nothing of the club. At half-time, he said to me, “the goalkeeper looks a bit leaden-footed.”

 

[w7 bee]

Could he have come out quicker for the 2nd ? Is that a bit harsh perhaps.

 

[ChertseyBee]

Could he have come out quicker for the 2nd ? Is that a bit harsh perhaps.

Personally, I’d liked to have seen him be a bit more aggressive there. Okay, he may well have ended up being red-carded, but that’s a risk you take.

 

[TW3Bee]

Could he have come out quicker for the 2nd ? Is that a bit harsh perhaps.

He certainly should have come for the first.

 

[Guildford Bee]

I’m afraid I’m fast coming to the conclusion that he’s not good enough for the PL.

OK he hasn’t made any glaring mistakes for a while but is that the bar now?

He gives me no confidence that he’s going to stop anything but the most routine of shots.

 

[TW3Bee]

I’m afraid I’m fast coming to the conclusion that he’s not good enough for the PL.

OK he hasn’t made any glaring mistakes for a while but is that the bar now?

He gives me no confidence that he’s going to stop anything but the most routine of shots.

Doesn't like coming for crosses either, which resulted in their first goal, can't really blame him for the other three, that fault lies elsewhere.

 

[Balders Bee]

I’ve always been and continue to be hugely supportive of Flekken, but interestingly, I took someone along to the game tonight who had never been to a Brentford game before and who knows nothing of the club. At half-time, he said to me, “the goalkeeper looks a bit leaden-footed.”

He's not the nimblest on his feet on either his speed off the line or his relexes or footwork. All areas his predecessor excelled in.
In the positive condition he's excellent with the Ball at his
Good with his distribution but waiting for his 'Wow Flekken won us that game' moment.

 

[BFC1997]

Distribution remains excellent. If and when Toney comes into the side, and he has an outlet for long balls, his contribution on that front could go up another gear. A step up even from Raya with the short passing IMO and makes a real difference to our ability to progress up the pitch and ultimately harm the opposition. Shouldn’t be take for granted.

As for the other goalkeeping fundamentals; positioning, shot stopping, handling etc. I think he’s just “not great”. Not the walking disaster others make him out to be but I don’t think he’s got quite so many “match-winning saves” in his locker as some others at this level.

 

[davewfilms]

Not good enough to be in premier League,he will not win us any games like David Raya used to.
Should of come for the cross for the 1st goal.
Looks like we need to make some tough decisions in January starting with number 1 .

 

[brentfordfc4ever]

A very basic goalkeeper from what I've seen so far. He has zero presence of his box. Zero. A lot goes past him too.

Anyone saying they're not worried, even ever so slightly, is not telling the truth

Plenty of others were rubbish tonight but I'm really struggling with him

 

[upnorthbee]

A very basic goalkeeper from what I've seen so far. He has zero presence of his box. Zero. A lot goes past him too.

Anyone saying they're not worried, even ever so slightly, is not telling the truth

Plenty of others were rubbish tonight but I'm really struggling with him

I’m worried ever so slightly but that’s about it.

His distribution is superb and that’s half the battle when we have a full team. He’s more exposed because we have 8 first team players out.

We have bigger problems than the keeper at the minute, probably worth a review in the summer however again I imagine we have bigger priorities. He has my full backing personally.

 

[hanworthbee]

Wonder if he's ever thought about saving a shot ?

 

[Guildford Bee]

Doesn't like coming for crosses either, which resulted in their first goal, can't really blame him for the other three, that fault lies elsewhere.

True that you can’t blame him but it would be nice if he surprised us with an actual save he shouldn’t be expected to make once in a while

 

[claphambee]

It’s a similar story every week with Flekken

I don’t question his distribution (although that reversed chipped pass across his goal that he loves gives me a heart attack every time)

I do question his ability to command his box - surely everyone can see he plays safe. Roots to his line and flaps/punches rather than catches with confidence, like Raya did at half the height. We will concede many goals from crosses of this continues (and we are)

Then, many people are saying ‘nice if he saves something’ and although it seems like an overreaction, I have to agree. If it’s on target and vaguely decent shot, it tends to go past him. Good keepers get you points by saving what they should, and occasionally, those they’re not expected to. I can count on on hand in 16 games how many times I’ve thought - ‘good save’. The story is the same every week - by and large if it’s on target against Flekken, it’s a goal. The stats back it up - one of the worst save percentages in the league.

Not piling on because of last night as he was not the main reason we lost. Obviously. But I feel absolutely zero confidence he will not make mistakes every game, not least earn us points.

And he’s not young. We need better in my opinion.

 

[hanworthbee]

Yep bottom of the goalie stats table on -6.8
Second bottom on save percentages on 63.2%

 

[Hippobee]

I’m afraid I’m fast coming to the conclusion that he’s not good enough for the PL.

OK he hasn’t made any glaring mistakes for a while but is that the bar now?

He gives me no confidence that he’s going to stop anything but the most routine of shots.

Agree with most of this, but I wonder how much of this is down to a lack of confidence, worsened by an inconsistent back line? As you say, no major gaffs lately, but that doesn't make him a good keeper. He does seem slow to react and not particularly instinctive, but he must have been better at these attributes to gain the reputation he did at his previous club.

it's a bit 'chicken and egg' for me. Is a poor functioning defence causing Flekken to be less confident, or vice versa?

 

[Untouchable]

Wonder if he's ever thought about saving a shot ?

No, I suspect he just spends training leaning against the post and puffing on a cigarette.

 

[claphambee]

His trademark for most saves is that starfish technique keepers do. Problem is it’s great for 1on1s as it ‘makes you look big’ when the player has the whole goal to aim at.

He just seems to do it all the time. Make that shape but ultimately stay in one position rather than dive. Even if it’s painfully obvious which side the shot will go (e.g cover or blockers on the other side) Doing this is, again a ‘safe’ option. And that’s my issue with him in everything.

I think it’s because his reactions are slow (how many goals go in with him rooted without going for it) and he knows it too - so rather than trust his reactions to get down and make a save to one side once the shot is hit, he just stays rooted again, but pulls this starfish shape - often meaning he misses shots that aren’t really too far to one side of him - see last nights fourth as an example but it’s very common.

 

[Thomas Bathurst]

It’s a similar story every week with Flekken

I don’t question his distribution (although that reversed chipped pass across his goal that he loves gives me a heart attack every time)

I do question his ability to command his box - surely everyone can see he plays safe. Roots to his line and flaps/punches rather than catches with confidence, like Raya did at half the height. We will concede many goals from crosses of this continues (and we are)

Then, many people are saying ‘nice if he saves something’ and although it seems like an overreaction, I have to agree. If it’s on target and vaguely decent shot, it tends to go past him. Good keepers get you points by saving what they should, and occasionally, those they’re not expected to. I can count on on hand in 16 games how many times I’ve thought - ‘good save’. The story is the same every week - by and large if it’s on target against Flekken, it’s a goal. The stats back it up - one of the worst save percentages in the league.

Not piling on because of last night as he was not the main reason we lost. Obviously. But I feel absolutely zero confidence he will not make mistakes every game, not least earn us points.

And he’s not young. We need better in my opinion.

Very well put and echoes my thoughts exactly.

Good with his feet but that's where the positives end. Loads of over analysis on here as to whether he should have saved this chance or that. Point is, he doesn't save any chances and appears to have very slow reactions. Decent keepers will pull off saves you sometimes don't expect to be saved. Plus his stay on his goalline tendencies and flapping at crosses exacerbates the situation. When does he ever come and claim crosses?

I think (bar Raya) keeper recruitment is our achilles heel.

 

[Rob-BEE]

Obviously not the reason we lost yesterday. But, for me, their 1st goal was a big mistake and any GK who is competent with balls into the box would have just caught it and nobody would even give it a second thought.

You can see from the stills below, the guy has basically hit the cross right at him! But his mindset is not focused on dominating his 6 yard box and that is a problem I think.

 

[Indian Bee]

Obviously not the reason we lost yesterday. But, for me, their 1st goal was a big mistake and any GK who is competent with balls into the box would have just caught it and nobody would even give it a second thought.

You can see from the stills below, the guy has basically hit the cross right at him! But his mindset is not focused on dominating his 6 yard box and that is a problem I think.

View attachment 43642View attachment 43643

Yep my reaction when I saw the goal again. He has to come out and command his area.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Obviously not the reason we lost yesterday. But, for me, their 1st goal was a big mistake and any GK who is competent with balls into the box would have just caught it and nobody would even give it a second thought.

You can see from the stills below, the guy has basically hit the cross right at him! But his mindset is not focused on dominating his 6 yard box and that is a problem I think.

View attachment 43642View attachment 43643

I think quite similar to the Janelt chance where the keeper blocked it, also he came for the cross then went back.

 

[alikat]

Good with his distribution but waiting for his 'Wow Flekken won us that game' moment.

I fear that we may have a long wait for that one.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Yep my reaction when I saw the goal again. He has to come out and command his area.

Yes 6 yard box has to be his, a keeper of his size, also his reactions generally seem to be slow.

 

[Brandy]

Obviously not the reason we lost yesterday. But, for me, their 1st goal was a big mistake and any GK who is competent with balls into the box would have just caught it and nobody would even give it a second thought.

You can see from the stills below, the guy has basically hit the cross right at him! But his mindset is not focused on dominating his 6 yard box and that is a problem I think.

View attachment 43642View attachment 43643

Yes I thought the same, he was at fault for this goal IMO when you look at his original starting position, but other than that generally played ok. Initially I thought he maybe could have got to Collin’s back pass quicker, however having watched the replay I’m not so sure. I don’t get why he was getting stick for not going long from goal kicks from the West Stand when we have no one up top to win headers like Toney currently.

 

[whyteleafebee76]

Obviously not the reason we lost yesterday. But, for me, their 1st goal was a big mistake and any GK who is competent with balls into the box would have just caught it and nobody would even give it a second thought.

You can see from the stills below, the guy has basically hit the cross right at him! But his mindset is not focused on dominating his 6 yard box and that is a problem I think.

View attachment 43642View attachment 43643

This illustrates things well. He retreated 3 yards an ended on his line rather than coming forward and claiming the ball.

 

[Indian Bee]

Yes 6 yard box has to be his, a keeper of his size, also his reactions generally seem to be slow.

Remember back in the day we had that 3rd choice goal keeper from Rangers - something Scott and he just used to just stand still. Flekken had shades of him last night.

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

Wonder if he's ever thought about saving a shot ?

So what was he meant to do with the shots last night then?

 

[paulj]

In my opinion simply not good enough, all season having watched him he is rooted to the 6 yard box every time a cross of corner comes in. For his stature he should coming for these, if he cannot catch them at least punch them clear. His stats say it all, not good enough, flapping awful.

 

[BaildonBee]

His trademark for most saves is that starfish technique keepers do. Problem is it’s great for 1on1s as it ‘makes you look big’ when the player has the whole goal to aim at.

He just seems to do it all the time. Make that shape but ultimately stay in one position rather than dive. Even if it’s painfully obvious which side the shot will go (e.g cover or blockers on the other side) Doing this is, again a ‘safe’ option. And that’s my issue with him in everything.

I think it’s because his reactions are slow (how many goals go in with him rooted without going for it) and he knows it too - so rather than trust his reactions to get down and make a save to one side once the shot is hit, he just stays rooted again, but pulls this starfish shape - often meaning he misses shots that aren’t really too far to one side of him - see last nights fourth as an example but it’s very common.

I don't necessarily disagree, I just think he is facing many more point blank or open goal (ie completely exposed) shots that mean he either has no time to react or he is basically guessing which way a striker is going to put it. The chances we are giving away at the moment are pretty big. Could he command his box more? I think he could. Could he dive more? Definitely yes. Is he too static? It does feel like it.

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

It's easy to say he should come for the first, our back line we're so deep and so slow to press the cross it's no wonder he's starting on his line.

Anyone calling him out for the second should give their head a wobble.

His distribution was very good, not sure what some of you expected him to do last night.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Yes I thought the same, he was at fault for this goal IMO when you look at his original starting position, but other than that generally played ok. Initially I thought he maybe could have got to Collin’s back pass quicker, however having watched the replay I’m not so sure. I don’t get why he was getting stick for not going long from goal kicks from the West Stand when we have no one up top to win headers like Toney currently.

His reaction was a bit slow, if he had been on his toes a bit quicker he may have got a block in.

 

[North London Bee]

I know he ticks all our boxes re distribution and having Toney back will offer him a proper target but I have yet too see anything about the other aspects of the role that fill me with any enthusiasm or optimism.