Stats.....what stats?

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Stats.....what stats?

GABS said:
Has anyone mentioned this piece by Ted Knutson? Written back in 2013, in hindsight it seems so simple. Love that he is the man with the foresight though and working for Brentford!

"Building a Better Football Club" | http://statsbomb.com/2013/11/building-a-better-football-club/
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Great find. Also have started going through the links some excellent material there as well.would love to know how informed our quants people are on all this, and how it is translated into coahung and game pay.
 

Stats.....what stats?

red_and_white said:
We probably don't even know 1% of what is being used. What I glean though is that you can't determine who's going to gain or concede a last minute penalty, but you can tell who's more likely to (which is what gives the advantage).
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Did you make that 1% stat up?
 

Stats.....what stats?

Stats.....what stats?

The principles of task division and specialisation are core to this, and not without precedence in football - look at Clough and Peter Taylor. He also identifies stability as a key factor but that should not be confused with no change, more a common framework and direction. Perhaps consistency in approach is a better phrase. But at the heart of any organisations development is marginal gains, I.e. constantly improving every aspect of what you do. This has become very popular recently based on the work of Brailsford and the UK cycling team. Stats are but part of this - they can identify areas for improvement be it recruitment, match analysis, player fitness data and they can offer solutions.

The organisations that develop the fastest are the ones that question everything they do and in which every individual questions what they do and how they do it looking for those small improvements. This requires specialisation and a culture of developing everyone as experts, to recognise that the only certainty is that everything can always be done better. It's been said many times that this is so far at odds with prevailing football wisdom and the cult of the manager but things are shifting fast. Villa are now using statistical analysis heavily whilst clubs like Milan and Real Madrid are unsurprisingly at the forefront of sports science. The difference between football and other sports and industries is just how big those early gains can be because of the traditional approaches - Knutson describes this well.

What will keep us ahead of the game is the emerging culture of questioning, specialisation and development that has become so apparent this summer. It's rare for football clubs and fans to be excited about the development of the background team but that is what is happening here.
 

Stats.....what stats?

psg150 said:
The principles of task division and specialisation are core to this, and not without precedence in football - look at Clough and Peter Taylor. He also identifies stability as a key factor but that should not be confused with no change, more a common framework and direction. Perhaps consistency in approach is a better phrase. But at the heart of any organisations development is marginal gains, I.e. constantly improving every aspect of what you do. This has become very popular recently based on the work of Brailsford and the UK cycling team. Stats are but part of this - they can identify areas for improvement be it recruitment, match analysis, player fitness data and they can offer solutions.

The organisations that develop the fastest are the ones that question everything they do and in which every individual questions what they do and how they do it looking for those small improvements. This requires specialisation and a culture of developing everyone as experts, to recognise that the only certainty is that everything can always be done better. It's been said many times that this is so far at odds with prevailing football wisdom and the cult of the manager but things are shifting fast. Villa are now using statistical analysis heavily whilst clubs like Milan and Real Madrid are unsurprisingly at the forefront of sports science. The difference between football and other sports and industries is just how big those early gains can be because of the traditional approaches - Knutson describes this well.

What will keep us ahead of the game is the emerging culture of questioning, specialisation and development that has become so apparent this summer. It's rare for football clubs and fans to be excited about the development of the background team but that is what is happening here.
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I found your comments most interesting. I feel the use of statistical anaysis mitigates, to a degree, confirmation bias. All of us are orien to this. In summary we overvalue facts that support our existing position and undervalue ones that don't. We tend to remember instances when our existing position is validated and forget incidences when they challenge our position. This means we often end up maintaining false beliefs as we do not wish to reject our past position. When confronted with criticism of our position we adopt such strategies as,

Everyone believes this
It's common sense
Or specify in great detail occupancies that have supported our position

If all else fails we attack the messenger. What do they know? They have only watch football for a few years and then mainly on TV.

Special interest, I played at a good level for several years so what do they know?

I have watched Brentford for thirty years. As an aside I have watched them for 33 years.

At Brenftord we are engaged in a much more open way to understand football. If you have time take a look at the number of backroom staff top clubs have around the world. You may be surprised. We are not out of step but catching up with teams we hope to compete against soon. We don't have the resources they have but we do have MB one of the most qualified statisticians in football. That is our comparative advantage.

As an experiment try to think of the sort of confirmation biases you have relating to Brentford. The one have is the ref never gives us a break against the bigger more glamourous clubs. Evidence our two payoff games. Now I need to try to overcome this to get nearer to what actually happens.
 
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Stats.....what stats?

ade211 said:
I found your comments most interesting. I feel the use of statistical anaysis mitigates, to a degree, confirmation bias. All of us are orien to this. In summary we overvalue fact that support our existing position and undervalue ones that don't. We tend to remember instances when our existing position is validated and forget incidences when they challenge our position. This means we often end up maintaining false beliefs as we do not wish to reject our past position. When confronted with criticism of our position we adopt such strategies as,

Everyone believes this
It's common sense
Or specify in great detail occupancies that have supported our position

If all else fails we attack the messenger. What do they know? They have only watch football for a few years and then mainly on TV.

Special interest, I played at a good level for several years so what do they know?

I have watched Brentford for thirty years. As an aside I have watched them for 33 years.

At Brenftord we are engaged in a much more open way to understand football. If you have time take a look at the number of backroom staff top clubs have around the world. You may be surprised. We are not out of step but catching up with teams we hope to compete against soon. We don't have the resources they have but we do have MB one of the most qualified statisticians in football. That is our comparative advantage.

As an experiment try to think of the sort of confirmation biases you have relating to Brentford. The one have is the ref never gives us a break against the bigger more glamourous clubs. Evidence our two payoff games. Now I need to try to overcome this to get nearer to what actually happens.
Click to expand...

Hans and Ora Rolling do a great presentation on Ignorance at www.gapminder.org look for the ignorance project tab. They show how counting/measuring mitigates 5 main biases we all have.
 

Stats.....what stats?

GlasgowBee said:
Hans and Ora Rolling do a great presentation on Ignorance at www.gapminder.org look for the ignorance project tab. They show how counting/measuring mitigates 5 main biases we all have.
Click to expand...

Will look into this. Ty.
 

Stats.....what stats?

ade211 said:
I found your comments most interesting. I feel the use of statistical anaysis mitigates, to a degree, confirmation bias. All of us are orien to this. In summary we overvalue facts that support our existing position and undervalue ones that don't. We tend to remember instances when our existing position is validated and forget incidences when they challenge our position. This means we often end up maintaining false beliefs as we do not wish to reject our past position. When confronted with criticism of our position we adopt such strategies as,

Everyone believes this
It's common sense
Or specify in great detail occupancies that have supported our position

If all else fails we attack the messenger. What do they know? They have only watch football for a few years and then mainly on TV.

Special interest, I played at a good level for several years so what do they know?

I have watched Brentford for thirty years. As an aside I have watched them for 33 years.

At Brenftord we are engaged in a much more open way to understand football. If you have time take a look at the number of backroom staff top clubs have around the world. You may be surprised. We are not out of step but catching up with teams we hope to compete against soon. We don't have the resources they have but we do have MB one of the most qualified statisticians in football. That is our comparative advantage.

As an experiment try to think of the sort of confirmation biases you have relating to Brentford. The one have is the ref never gives us a break against the bigger more glamourous clubs. Evidence our two payoff games. Now I need to try to overcome this to get nearer to what actually happens.
Click to expand...

Or the widely held belief that we are consistently unlucky in the playoffs.. Though I accept the sample is very small.
 

Stats.....what stats?

psg150 said:
Or the widely held belief that we are consistently unlucky in the playoffs.. Though I accept the sample is very small.
Click to expand...

Good point and admission time I have a confirmation bias around this.been to every playoff or cup final and we have lost. Must be the great football God is against us. And while I am on this I have another about penalities. Know there must be something more to these but this is how I feel. Guess first step in overcoming confirmation bias is admit being a sufferer.

Thanks for the insight.
 
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Stats.....what stats?

Stats.....what stats?

amersfoort bee said:
Not too sure how he works that out but I would be very surprised if Ipswich and Leeds finish 20th and 21st. I would very much enjoy it if Leeds did finish 21st mind you.
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There was a mistake. The post has been updated and Ipswich now rates higher. Leeds not, however.
 

Stats.....what stats?

GABS said:
Another decent read

"Will Brentford FC get promoted to Premier League?"

http://www.goalimpact.com/2015/07/w...utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&m=1
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Go spot. My reading of pre season and for that matter predictions after a few games is the random element plays an important part. From what I have read after about game twenty it becomes relatively easier to predict final league position. As random fluctuations count less than actual skill etc. at the start of the season. A few bad referees' decisions or injuries will lead to a league position that underestimate the long term one. Similarly a poor side can be bolstered early in the season by some good luck. Supporters and managers can easily be mislead by this. Still it is interesting to know what is being predicted at present.
 

Stats.....what stats?

Stats.....what stats?

sussexb said:
Saw that in the paper today - really good article. And good to see that at least one journo gets it...
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I think we had a big advantage when very few people got what was happening. This is disappearing fast as clubs realise what is happening makes perfect sense. Soon other clubs in the Championship with money will invest as we have. We did have a big lead on this but how long can we stay ahead is difficult to estimate? And while MB is wealthy compared to others his pockets are not that deep.

I think we do have an advantage that even richer clubs will find hard to negate, namely MB's own sikills both as a self made entrepreneur who is prepared to take calculate business risks, he also has a deep understanding of the statistics involved. This should keep us ahead of the game for a while.
 

Stats.....what stats?

ade211 said:
I think we do have an advantage that even richer clubs will find hard to negate, namely MB's own sikills both as a self made entrepreneur who is prepared to take calculate business risks, he also has a deep understanding of the statistics involved. This should keep us ahead of the game for a while.
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I think it is a persistent advantage. Other clubs may start the journey - in fact many clubs are already a way along, like Arsenal - but we have a resource shared with another club, thereby larger but also with multiple inputs, and this resource will share information with MB's other businesses, which (I guess) also share information and experiment with methods and techniques. It is clear that MB attracts like-minded individuals and will have a greater creative pool. It is the both the size of the 'community' and the variation of reason that other clubs will not be able to catch.
 

Stats.....what stats?

Based on us buying predominantly foreign players this summer, does this point the finger at British players having cack stats?

Or are they compatible but too expensive?
 

Stats.....what stats?

Bridge Bee said:
Based on us buying predominantly foreign players this summer, does this point the finger at British players having cack stats?

Or are they compatible but too expensive?
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My guess would be the latter.
 

Stats.....what stats?

Just listen to Lasse Vibe's and Andreas Bjelland's interviews and that may throw some light on why we've signed 2 "great danes" ?
 

Stats.....what stats?

If it's ok with everyone, I'd like to close this thread. If someone would like to open up a new stats thread, please do so.
 
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