New Stadium Progress

New Stadium Progress

I also am a bit confused JBN.

are you saying that first we buy the land back from Barrats at around what £11M? and then build a phase one of a total £500M project. What with?

We have to get the land value first, ok possible with the sale of Griffin Park

Then we have to put the funding for phase one up front. err where does the money come from? lets say we got best price for the land a GP at £15M and somehow managed to buy the land at Lionel Road for £11M would £4M be enough to complete phase one?

Where would we play in the meantime?
How long before the revenue is enough to afford phase two?
What if we can't shift the houses for sale?
What if??????


The £500 or so million that is being talked about is the completed development value. This takes into account the cost of the land, the cost of the materials to build it all, the marketing, fees and developers profit, (somewhere around 15% but could be as high as 30%).

BFC take over the option if Barratts cannot go through with this project. BFC work up the master plan, with the architect and Hounslow Council to get a development that works.

The first phase is funded by external cash. Phase 1 could be the stadium and the first 150 or so homes.

In an ideal world we would carry on playing at GP while phase 1 is happening. When the stadium is complete, we move over, sell GP and pay of some of the debt. Phase 2 might be a further 150 homes, which could be funded or part funded by the profits from phase 1. That is all that any other developer would do.

What doesn't sell is rented out.

This would involve substantial borrowing, but it is borrowing that can be secured against either GP (if there is anymore room;) ) or the planning consent on the development. It is just down to how we gear the financing.

Lionel Road might be worth £11m as it is, with a planning consent to stick 500 new homes on, the value will treble at least.

I have spoken to a development agent on this, it is not an unusal proposal, it happens all the time.

Yes the idea of borrowing to do it, is scarey, but we don't need to walk into Barclays and say "lend us £500m, we want to build a new stadium and load of flats". It can be funded, it can be phased. We might 'only' need £50m to kick start it and with the planning consent in place the land value would cover alot of it and the value of the planning consent should be sweet enough to cover at least the rest.

The current plan is pretty vague, no one seems to willing to inform us what we are getting tenure wise and what we are getting in supporting non matchday income producing development.

There isn't a huge amount of keenness to tell us what plan B is, unless it is stay at GP or find someone to fill Barratts shoes.
 

New Stadium Progress

You sound keen.:sorted: Why not take yourself and your agent and see if you can "develop" a relationship with someone at GP?
Interesting posts by the way.
 

New Stadium Progress

The £500 or so million that is being talked about is the completed development value. This takes into account the cost of the land, the cost of the materials to build it all, the marketing, fees and developers profit, (somewhere around 15% but could be as high as 30%).

BFC take over the option if Barratts cannot go through with this project. BFC work up the master plan, with the architect and Hounslow Council to get a development that works.

The first phase is funded by external cash. Phase 1 could be the stadium and the first 150 or so homes.

In an ideal world we would carry on playing at GP while phase 1 is happening. When the stadium is complete, we move over, sell GP and pay of some of the debt. Phase 2 might be a further 150 homes, which could be funded or part funded by the profits from phase 1. That is all that any other developer would do.

What doesn't sell is rented out.

This would involve substantial borrowing, but it is borrowing that can be secured against either GP (if there is anymore room;) ) or the planning consent on the development. It is just down to how we gear the financing.

Lionel Road might be worth £11m as it is, with a planning consent to stick 500 new homes on, the value will treble at least.

I have spoken to a development agent on this, it is not an unusal proposal, it happens all the time.

Yes the idea of borrowing to do it, is scarey, but we don't need to walk into Barclays and say "lend us £500m, we want to build a new stadium and load of flats". It can be funded, it can be phased. We might 'only' need £50m to kick start it and with the planning consent in place the land value would cover alot of it and the value of the planning consent should be sweet enough to cover at least the rest.

The current plan is pretty vague, no one seems to willing to inform us what we are getting tenure wise and what we are getting in supporting non matchday income producing development.

There isn't a huge amount of keenness to tell us what plan B is, unless it is stay at GP or find someone to fill Barratts shoes.


Your talking about a club that couldn't organize a FA cup ticket sale properly. Now you wnat to let them loose on a £500m building project. :eek: :rolleyes:
 

New Stadium Progress

Your talking about a club that couldn't organize a FA cup ticket sale properly. Now you wnat to let them loose on a £500m building project. :eek: :rolleyes:

You've found the flaw in the plan:D
 

New Stadium Progress

You sound keen.:sorted: Why not take yourself and your agent and see if you can "develop" a relationship with someone at GP?
Interesting posts by the way.

Apparently the idea has been discussed at BU or BFC board level.:fishing:
 

New Stadium Progress

But where is the money tree?

I'll take a wild stab in the dark and suggest a bank, like most property developers:rolleyes:

Some of us are probably quite glad you don't have a vote!

If this is the calibre of the representatives, I'm glad I don't have a vote. :sorted:

Any that's why your plan doesn't stack up. We're not in the ideal world unfortunately.

The plan can work, the plan works for hundreds of developers across the country who borrow upto their eyeballs and make a mint at the end of it. The plan doesn't work, if you don't take the time to understand it and don't get the right people working for you.
 

New Stadium Progress

If this is the calibre of the representatives, I'm glad I don't have a vote. :sorted:

He doesn't represent BU or speak for it.

The plan can work, the plan works for hundreds of developers across the country who borrow upto their eyeballs and make a mint at the end of it.

I don't need a lecture in the bleedin obvious on how property developers make their money. :D

We cannot do this alone and I wish you would accept it. If it was so feasable then it would be plan a. In this climate, trying to build a stadium with the risk that goes with it would be suicidal.

Why do you think Bristol Rovers have postponed plans to redevelop their stadium until they find another partner? If it was so easy, then why aren't they doing it themselves?

The project team will have several scenarios should the partnership with Barratts not progress and I'm sure you'll understand it would be pretty stupid to reveal them on here.
 

New Stadium Progress

I'll take a wild stab in the dark and suggest a bank, like most property developers:rolleyes:

I know you are well aware of the credit crunch, so must be aware banks are trying to cut back on lending to trailer park trash. Which in reality BFC would be to a bank. They would however lend to someone like Barratts who have such a large portfolio of land bank. :sorted:
 

New Stadium Progress

He doesn't represent BU or speak for it.

I know and I wasn't talking about Edmundo:sorted:

We cannot do this alone and I wish you would accept it.

We will have to agree to disagree, I believe we could, with the right expertise on board.

The project team will have several scenarios should the partnership with Barratts not progress and I'm sure you'll understand it would be pretty stupid to reveal them on here.

I can't imagine there are many football clubs in the market place for a new stadium in Brentford, so why the big secret?

The only potential Plan Bs I can make out are, we either forget the idea and stay at GP, which would obviously piss off a load of fans that have had their hopes raised, which could be why there is a big reluctance to say anything or we get another developer to step in, however, as we do not 'own' the option could Barratts sell the option on to raise cash, leaving us high and dry or would the option revert back to BFC if they couldn't/wouldn't go through with the project?

If you are 100% confident that there is a plan B that will see BFC playing at Lionel Road within 5 years, should plan A go tits up, then fine, i'll buy you a pint in the Peter Gilham Lounge of our new stadium.:sorted: (this offer expires at midnight 12/6/2013;) )
 
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New Stadium Progress

I don't need a lecture in the bleedin obvious on how property developers make their money. :D

I've been meaning to ask.......hows the Ph.D in Public Relations coming along?

:)
 

New Stadium Progress

The current plan is pretty vague, no one seems to willing to inform us what we are getting tenure wise and what we are getting in supporting non matchday income producing development.

There isn't a huge amount of keenness to tell us what plan B is, unless it is stay at GP or find someone to fill Barratts shoes.

JBN,

The Bees United Q&A in January addressed in part some of the issues. I doubt too much more detail will be published until negotiations have been further progressed and more definitive agreements reached between the club and Barratts:

http://www.beesunited.org.uk/content/view/332/2/

Some of the key points from the release:

(6) What happens if the developer pulls out?

If a deal cannot be agreed with the developer, BFCLR has an option to buy back the site from the developer. This would allow the Club to seek an alternative partner.

(14) What facilities will be included that will enable BFC to increase off-the-pitch revenue?

The exact facilities will be dependent upon the outcome of future negotiations. However, potential non football related income areas identified include conferencing, banqueting and other events, car park revenue, revenue from property assets (eg the business centre), non-stadium advertising income, naming rights and any income from a rugby club partner.

(15) Who will own the ground?


The intention is that the proceeds of selling Griffin Park will be re-invested in the new stadium and the Club or BFCLR as a subsidiary of the Club will own the ground. In practice the commercial structure will depend on a number of complex factors including commercial arrangements and tax considerations.



Barratts and other homebuilders have received a lot of attention in the financial press this week.

Analysts have expressed concern that a lot of land assets have been acquired by homebuilders in the past 12 months at top of the market prices and that accounting revaluation of landbanks at the end of June will wipe out big chunks of their equity, potentially causing a breach of banking covenants or even leading to negative net worth positions in some of the more heavily indebted companies.

Barratts have 2bn of assets on their balance sheet, comprised principally of land assets of which roughly 40% reportedly has planning consents for development. With 1.7bn of net debt supporting a market capitalisation of circa £400m. Barratts debt ratio is higher than many of their competitors and the company appears vunerable to sharp falls in land values.

Barratts also has £800m of maturing debt to be refinanced by the end of June and the refinancing agreements are yet to be signed off.

The CEO of Barratts issued a statement to the stock exchange advising that the company does not expect to breach its banking covenants. He also advised that progess was being made with an in principle agreement to refinance an £800m tranche of debt for two years.

One of the differences in this downturn is that the housebuilding companies do not appear to be caught with large stocks of unsold properties, so they have the ability to quickly slow new construction and go about securing planning consents on their landbanks while waiting for demand to pick-up before ramping up construction work again. Hopefully, just about when a planning consent is secured on Liionel Road at the end of 2009.
 
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New Stadium Progress

The plan can work, the plan works for hundreds of developers across the country who borrow upto their eyeballs and make a mint at the end of it. The plan doesn't work, if you don't take the time to understand it and don't get the right people working for you.

The point you're missing is that this isn't the plan that works for hundred of developers any more, it's the plan that's left developers all over the place high & dry due to the current unavailability of credit & lack of buyers. There's articles in the financial pages of the papers today about housebuilders, including all of the big boys, Wimpey, Persimmon, Barratt etc being on the verge of going bust as their revenue streams dry up leaving them up to the neck in debt with no immediate way to generate the kind of massive profits that sustained this business plan.

I'm not trying to knock you for proposing the idea, but the business model you're proposing is suicide in the current financial climate, we won't be able to get the credit to finance this and if by some miracle we could we wouldn't be able to sell the houses we were building.

Trust me, I'm right in the middle of all this & may well be out of a job soon if you believe the dire forecasts in the papers.
 

New Stadium Progress

The point you're missing is that this isn't the plan that works for hundred of developers any more, it's the plan that's left developers all over the place high & dry due to the current unavailability of credit & lack of buyers. There's articles in the financial pages of the papers today about housebuilders, including all of the big boys, Wimpey, Persimmon, Barratt etc being on the verge of going bust as their revenue streams dry up leaving them up to the neck in debt with no immediate way to generate the kind of massive profits that sustained this business plan.

I'm not trying to knock you for proposing the idea, but the business model you're proposing is suicide in the current financial climate, we won't be able to get the credit to finance this and if by some miracle we could we wouldn't be able to sell the houses we were building.

Trust me, I'm right in the middle of all this & may well be out of a job soon if you believe the dire forecasts in the papers.

I appreciate the point.

Developers have got greedy and over cooked their appraisals allowing them to spend over the odds for land and gambling on house prices continually growing at stupid %ages when pepoles income isn't. The bubble had to burst at some point.

With the residential element, what we couldn't sell we could rent out, which would overcome some of the issue. I met with a residential developer just last week who is starting on £75m development which will include over 300 units. His view is that they will retain what they can't sell and rent them out, producing an income stream.

It's abit of a management headache, but it is model that he believes can work because he has done it before. It pays for his funding and gives him a bit of income on top. It could be covered under non matchday income.;)

Hope the job sorts itself out.
 

New Stadium Progress

Barrats are in the red and are likely to put projects onhold (today's The Times).

oh what joy you are..................................... :rolleyes:

how about you just pop down to Loftus Road now and ask if YOU can share with them, :wave:

Barratts may be having problems with the stockmarket, but then read JB's post above, BFC(LR) LTD have the right to buy back and use another partner.

We had this situation years ago, then look what happened, the housing market suddenly went boom, prices rocketing, more people buying, the market will stabilise and this LR project will be built. Whether you'd care to share it with Bees supporters is another thing, from reading your posts.
 

New Stadium Progress

Barrats are in the red and are likely to put projects onhold (today's The Times).

:rolleyes: They have borrowed money against £2b worth of land assets. That is not in the red.

Why don't we just sell up GP and share Loftus Road, just to make life easier for you. :rolleyes: :wave:
 

New Stadium Progress

JBN,

The Bees United Q&A in January addressed in part some of the issues. I doubt too much more detail will be published until negotiations have been further progressed and more definitive agreements reached between the club and Barratts:

http://www.beesunited.org.uk/content/view/332/2/

Some of the key points from the release:

(6) What happens if the developer pulls out?

If a deal cannot be agreed with the developer, BFCLR has an option to buy back the site from the developer. This would allow the Club to seek an alternative partner.

(14) What facilities will be included that will enable BFC to increase off-the-pitch revenue?

The exact facilities will be dependent upon the outcome of future negotiations. However, potential non football related income areas identified include conferencing, banqueting and other events, car park revenue, revenue from property assets (eg the business centre), non-stadium advertising income, naming rights and any income from a rugby club partner.

(15) Who will own the ground?


The intention is that the proceeds of selling Griffin Park will be re-invested in the new stadium and the Club or BFCLR as a subsidiary of the Club will own the ground. In practice the commercial structure will depend on a number of complex factors including commercial arrangements and tax considerations.



Barratts and other homebuilders have received a lot of attention in the financial press this week.

Analysts have expressed concern that a lot of land assets have been acquired by homebuilders in the past 12 months at top of the market prices and that accounting revaluation of landbanks at the end of June will wipe out big chunks of their equity, potentially causing a breach of banking covenants or even leading to negative net worth positions in some of the more heavily indebted companies.

Barratts have 2bn of assets on their balance sheet, comprised principally of land assets of which roughly 40% reportedly has planning consents for development. With 1.7bn of net debt supporting a market capitalisation of circa £400m. Barratts debt ratio is higher than many of their competitors and the company appears vunerable to sharp falls in land values.

Barratts also has £800m of maturing debt to be refinanced by the end of June and the refinancing agreements are yet to be signed off.

The CEO of Barratts issued a statement to the stock exchange advising that the company does not expect to breach its banking covenants. He also advised that progess was being made with an in principle agreement to refinance an £800m tranche of debt for two years.

One of the differences in this downturn is that the housebuilding companies do not appear to be caught with large stocks of unsold properties, so they have the ability to quickly slow new construction and go about securing planning consents on their landbanks while waiting for demand to pick-up before ramping up construction work again. Hopefully, just about when a planning consent is secured on Liionel Road at the end of 2009.

Joe

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

Although there is a plan B, it is just plan A with a different developer.

As for the non matchday income, there is not a huge amount that is new, just better opportunities on what we already have. I guess I was expecting more as enabling development and non matchday income were yelled from the roof tops.

With regard to tenure, the intention is to own it but..................

Fingers crossed it all works out.
 

New Stadium Progress

have just been told today Barratts shares were about £16 Six Weeks ago down to 63p Last week and taken off the market today - Where the F*** does that leave us now?
 

New Stadium Progress

have just been told today Barratts shares were about £16 Six Weeks ago down to 63p Last week and taken off the market today - Where the F*** does that leave us now?

Yes, shares have fallen 93%.

First of all - these are purely my personal thoughts and certainly nothing to do with BU.

I suspect that no-one is building new speculative development at the moment. However, Lionel Road is a long-term game - that has been proven beyond doubt over the past few years - it has been a long, hard road up to this point and Brian Burgess and Chris Gammon have got us to here against the opinion of most of us on here.

We still have the council behind it. AFAIK we still have Barratts behind it. With the council full-square behind the deal it has a strong chance of coming to fruition, but perhaps not in the timescale that we would like. The property market needs to recover to a sensible place before Lionel Road can be developed.

I guess the next question is "What if Barratts go under ? What is plan B". Well as has been discussed before we have the option then to try and get another developer involved.

There is no question that the current market is not good for Lionel Road and any delay in Lionel Road is not good for BFC. However the property market is a long game and we should not be loading the bullets in the revolver just yet.

P.S. Reading an article on the biggest fallers in the current market I note that Barclays are down 53% - that must be good price at the moiment.
 

New Stadium Progress

Stop the doom and gloom, The highest hurdle Was getting to Lionel rd in the first place. This has been achieved, to my mind this has been a self inficted slump sat off by the american credit slump. This is not the end of the world. Unless something very major is going to happen, these things have always happened in relation to the economy. We have had a few good years, now we are in for a correction. How long things take to recover who knows?
Iam just a football fan, but in my opinion a lot of the hard work has been done. Maybe we might be setback for a year or two, but Brian Burgess and his team have done bloody well up till now. Keep the faith.
 

New Stadium Progress

have just been told today Barratts shares were about £16 Six Weeks ago down to 63p Last week and taken off the market today - Where the F*** does that leave us now?

12 month high was £10.31, at close of business yesterday, they were 63p.

If you need to know chapter and verse, try emailing Brian at BU, on Bananas "advice", I did. That was over two weeks ago and I have not been afforded a reply. :rolleyes:

There was a public response from Joe, which confirms Bananas comments, Plan B is Plan A with a different developer, however, if the whole sector is suffering, Plan B will go the same way as Plan A:eek:

What it actually comes down too is, we don't realy have a Plan B.
 
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New Stadium Progress

What it actually comes down too is, we don't realy have a Plan B.

You are not privvy to the negoiations and therefore have no basis to make that statement as it is completely untrue.

The Lionel Road steering group, of which I am am member, will report back next week with an update on the scheme.
 

New Stadium Progress

have just been told today Barratts shares were about £16 Six Weeks ago down to 63p Last week and taken off the market today - Where the F*** does that leave us now?


Fantastic! More seasons at Griffin Park! :sorted:
 

New Stadium Progress

You are not privvy to the negoiations and therefore have no basis to make that statement as it is completely untrue.

The Lionel Road steering group, of which I am am member, will report back next week with an update on the scheme.

I appreciate I'm not privvy to 'inside info', however, Joe went into print with this a couple of weeks ago and Banana has said as much when asked what his opinion is.

(6) What happens if the developer pulls out?

If a deal cannot be agreed with the developer, BFCLR has an option to buy back the site from the developer. This would allow the Club to seek an alternative partner.


So is Joe telling porkies?
 
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New Stadium Progress

Interesting commentary in the Independent yesterday on Barratt's current woes http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...red-housebuilders-on-life-support-855495.html.

The share price on Friday valued a company with over £2bn of tangible net assets and with £395m of forecast profits for the current year at £221m i.e. around 10% of it's potential break-up value or 60% of this year profits. For the shares to have that low a value the company's net asset value and future profit potential would have to be all but wiped out. That would only happen if the lenders insisted on taking shares in a debt for equity swap and/or the business was broken-up to realise cash for debt repayment. It would not be the first time that a perfectly viable and healthy business has fallen prey to market panic, but as the Independent reporter says would lending banks really want to precipitate such drastic actions, when there is every reason to believe that the housing market will settle and stabilise within a few years as has historically been the case?

There was a two page spread in the Sunday Times last week on Barratt's and other housebuilders. One of the key comments that the Barratt's CEO made in the article, was that he want's to refocus the company on traditional housebuilding projects over the next few years and disengage from more speculative high rise and commercial developments. Such a policy would probably not augur well for the Lionel Road project and make the task of delivery that much tougher for the guys negotiating the develpment plan.

There was also a property report this week that while house prices were holding up reasonably well in some areas of London and the South-east other areas were not doing so well - notably the borough of Hounslow which had reportedley recorded a 20% fall in the last 12 month period.

It is still all crystal ball stuff at the moment as to how long it will take for house prices to plateau and settle, and perhaps even more difficult to forecast when significant demand for new high rise developments might outstrip the current supply. Developers nonetheless, need to plan for market conditions four to five years ahead. I hope this means it will be business as usual in at least progessing a planning consent and development plan for Lionel Road to keep this project moving through the pipeline.
 

New Stadium Progress

As somebody who actually works within spitting distance of Lionel Road South and well within the so called "Brentford Diamond" that the council are actively looking to regenerate, I can assure you that Barratts are still purchasing/trying to purchase the freehold of many business's within this area.

At worst they are only "Land Banking" in order to have sites available when conditions in the economy improve to enable new developments to commence.
 

New Stadium Progress

As somebody who actually works within spitting distance of Lionel Road South and well within the so called "Brentford Diamond" that the council are actively looking to regenerate, I can assure you that Barratts are still purchasing/trying to purchase the freehold of many business's within this area.

At worst they are only "Land Banking" in order to have sites available when conditions in the economy improve to enable new developments to commence.

Lionel Road may be different, I have heard that Barratts are not buying land unconditionally. They will only consider land that has a planning consent.
 

New Stadium Progress

My oh my there's a lot of writing in this thread!
So are we getting a pub on every corner and nice toilets for the ladies then?
 

New Stadium Progress

In peoples expert opinion. . . How long do you realistically think this will be before this whole thing is completed?
 

New Stadium Progress

http://www.stmargaretsfair.org/schedule.html

12th July is the annual St.Margarets Fair on Moormead including:



I'll be going along to have a nose.

this was on show at the Bees fun day, as i said before, plans show where the stadium, hotel, housing and the leisure centre are planned to be built. the stadium has 3 sides enclosed with the usual looking new builds at Donny and others, with what looked like a seperate main stand adjoining the 2 ends. with the property market as it is now, i can see this project being delayed now, which is a shame.
 

New Stadium Progress

In peoples expert opinion. . . How long do you realistically think this will be before this whole thing is completed?

Some time after 13th June 2013. :D

We haven't got a master plan, we haven't got a planning application in and our development partner has bigger things to worry about at the moment.

If all went acccording to plan, the application would be in by September this year, a consent within 6 months, another 6 months negotiating the build contract and then 18 months build period. At best we could be looking at starting the 11/12 season in a new stadium.

Personally, I think it will be mid/late 2013.
 

New Stadium Progress

I'd guess 2014 at the earliest.
 

New Stadium Progress

In peoples expert opinion. . . How long do you realistically think this will be before this whole thing is completed?


Barratts publish information quite regularly on their website. Last assessment I can see on the housing market is included here http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/media/releases/Content.aspx?id=1532

“We do not expect to see a meaningful upturn in the housing market until there are improvements in the availability of mortgage finance. We do, however, continue to believe the medium-term outlook remains strong given the restricted supply of housing in the UK.”


So long as that remains the case, one would hope that the project continues on schedule for the forseeable future (next 12 to 18 months), in accordance with Barratts view of a strong medium-term outlook for UK housing.

As has been noted above, any delay in the project is not good for the club The reason a long delay would be problematical is clearly set out in the BU Chairman's end of seaon review http://www.beesunited.org.uk/content/view/349/2/


2. Whether the club is owned by BU or anyone else, continually borrowing against the value of Griffin Park is not sustainable. This is exactly what Ron Noades did as owner, and our objective has to be to reduce the cash requirements of the club. Ultimately this will be determined by the Board of the Football Club (which includes BU representatives such as myself), and it is a tough challenge. The football league shows a consistent picture of clubs living beyond their means, and the increasing numbers of clubs in crisis is a direct result. Let me be explicit: without the financial support of Matthew Benham and some of our BFC Board Directors the football club is not financially viable. The 08/09 cash requirements are likely to be even more than in 07/08, so the challenge to keep Brentford FC alive is bigger than ever.

MY VERDICT: Making material reductions in the cash requirements of the club is a huge challenge for the BFC Board. It will take time and a united effort to achieve.

3. It is questionable whether we will ever be able to break-even at Griffin Park – it would involve reducing the cash requirements each year (through reduced costs and increased income) by approximately £700k. That equates to a third of all current income, or nearly half the current playing budget. Our best hope of breaking even is to get a new stadium at Lionel Road. Good progress is being made by Brian Burgess and Chris Gammon, although any project like this takes a long time and is fraught with difficulties. BU gives Brentford a community aspect which is a great help in overcoming planning objections
 
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