Stats.....what stats?

[zuko]

That's right... Some people won't get it until we see the difference!

The difference?! We've just finished in our highest position since 1947.

 

[zuko]

if you ask Sir Alex, Jose, or any of the people that really know Football, they will tell you they only buy players for certain positions

They were/are also able to splash £50m on a player. We have to be smarter.

 

[WARFIELD BEE]

Bournemouth don't get this stats thing do they, players have to be 5'6" not 6'5"

 

[Gee Bee]

They were/are also able to splash £50m on a player. We have to be smarter.

Ferguson also didn't just buy players for one position, he often purchased utility players. He also got a number of transfers wrong.

 

[aawharris]

Ferguson also didn't just buy players for one position, he often purchased utility players. He also got a number of transfers wrong.

We are going to get transfers wrong now and then (NP for example) but when we are only spending 800G its not quite so much of a bummer than when teams spend 50 Mil.
And add on top of that,the profit we are likely to make on 80% of our signings, makes it a no lose situation.

 

[Mr Tree]

I was relaxed when we were hammering the likes of forest, Cardiff , Fulham... Did we really need to change

i find these posts really bizarre - the stats thing is overplayed, but it's simply about a very clever man who's made lots of money through his statistical analysis of football, now wanting to apply his statistical analysis to a club and find competitive advantages. i know you've played a decent bit of football - i can't understand why you think this is so incomprehensible?

if you thought that one great season meant that we were now likely to "hammer the likes of Forest, Cardiff and F*lham" and their far larger budgets for ever more... i'm amazed

 

[aawharris]

i find these posts really bizarre - the stats thing is overplayed, but it's simply about a very clever man who's made lots of money through his statistical analysis of football, now wanting to apply his statistical analysis to a club and find competitive advantages. i know you've played a decent bit of football - i can't understand why you think this is so incomprehensible?

if you thought that one great season meant that we were now likely to "hammer the likes of Forest, Cardiff and F*lham" and their far larger budgets for ever more... i'm amazed

I think a lot of the reason we beat those teams (with bigger budgets) is that we were simply different, underestimated.
And by tweaking things again this season, we will be different again, thus staying ahead of the old school "Got money, spend it on the supposed best players" brigade.

 

[mhead bee]

Don't all shoot me down,

Can someone please tell me what stats will be used in this new philosophy? I'm sure only one stat counts when playing football,, and that's...more goals than the opponent?

We are all well aware we just had a superb season playing some smashing football and I know it's been said on here before .... Why change that?
Yes, the past is the past now and we all have to move on and hope this new management team have the same desire and man management skills as the last lot!

But my point is, this is football , nobody or no stat can determine which way the ball will roll, no stat can tell you we will gain or concede a last minute penalty, no stat can tell you who will be sent off, ect ect,

I'm not the "old skool" typo and have played at a good level for 20 years (including bees CoE for 5 years) and still playing so I do know my bit about the game.
I hope it's not a complete failure obviously but I'm curious to know what stats will win us matches??

I am not sure if this is a wind up or not?

Looks like it could have been written by Micky Quinn. Have you honestly not read any of the 50 thousands plus posts on this topic, do we really need yet another thread covering the same ground over and over.

Players stats are used by every football club and every other sport in the world to gauge performance. We are using stats in a unique way that helps us identify good players that other haven't noticed yet so we can pick them up cheap, develop them and sell them on at a huge profit.

Honestly, it isn't really about predicting where the ball will roll that is down to chance. He is predicting what a good player will do with the ball most of the time, if they are consistent at doing this their stats will prove it. You are talking about the 10% of the time chance plays a part, if you stick to the 90% you can control then you will be right 90% of the time and therefore you win far more than you lose.

 

[nick logan]

Well I disagree, cos obviously Andre was found by scoring so many goals for Luton and he deserved to be picked up by a bigger club, I know this is Stats of goal scoring but if you ask Sir Alex, Jose, or any of the people that really know Football, they will tell you they only buy players for certain positions, not about how many corners they give away, or Back passes they play, lt doesn't work cos no one knows how each individual player will balance himself to either pass the ball, or take someone on, or get fouled and lose the ball ! So as I say every game is completely different, this computerised belief will be forgoton within one season, only hope we don't end up like Yeovil Town, just think back to their day at Wembley and where they are now !!!

Is this a wind up ?

 

[mhead bee]

I touched on a couple of the stats in the thread Brentford Transfer Speculation Summer 2015 post 1392. A couple of other stats that may or may not be used are:

Pressing: Rather than simply look at how often the pressing player tackles the player in possession, identify how often he forces them to play a ball which goes to one of his own players.

Passing: The current measurement is the percentage of successful passes a player makes. This means that a high number of sideways or backwards passes can skew the figures. A better way might be to measure how often a forward pass goes to a player who is in space (and equally, you would want to measure how often a player moves into a position where he can receive that kind of pass).

Movement: How often does a player make a run which disrupts the defensive line (for example, by splitting the centrebacks), even if the ball doesn't go his way. It's something that, for example, Tony Woodcock and Gary Birtles were very good at.

Tracking back: How well does a player track back? Ashley Cole was particularly good at this.

It's generally recognised that random elements play a huge part of the game. What stats can do is look at where a difference can be made irrespective of the random bounce of the ball.

For example, other than Stoke under Pulis, few goals result from corners - the figure is something like 1 goal from every 19 corners: Stoke managed something like 1 from every 12. A lot of clubs therefore now keep possession from corners since they can control what happens next.

A very good description.

I read an article on Grimandi when he played for Arsenal. He said he pulled out of 90% of his 50/50's because they made his stats look bad if he lost half of them, he would let the other guys win it and position himself to get the second ball or stop the second pass. He wanted to play next week you see. Michael Carrick is widely regarded as a one of the top passers in the game, rarely misplacing a pass and the stats prove it whereas on the other hand his fantasy football score is awful as he contributes little to the teams success. The intelligent use of stats as described above shows the real truth and not the how many goals/shots/km run by players as used by sky sports as it tells you nothing.

Fans love Tevez because he chased everything but if you look how many times this huge waste of energy actually achieves something it is very low. Surely energy would be better spent doing productive things?

 

[mhead bee]

Is this a wind up ?

Almost definitely. Either that or the most uneducated post in the History of the GPG.

 

[BlueJayBee]

Is this a wind up ?

Statistical analysis gets you nowhere in sport - MB gave up on it after a year and actually made his fortune flogging fruit & veg, down the local market

 

[aawharris]

A very good description.

I read an article on Grimandi when he played for Arsenal. He said he pulled out of 90% of his 50/50's because they made his stats look bad if he lost half of them, he would let the other guys win it and position himself to get the second ball or stop the second pass. He wanted to play next week you see. Michael Carrick is widely regarded as a one of the top passers in the game, rarely misplacing a pass and the stats prove it whereas on the other hand his fantasy football score is awful as he contributes little to the teams success. The intelligent use of stats as described above shows the real truth and not the how many goals/shots/km run by players as used by sky sports as it tells you nothing.

Fans love Tevez because he chased everything but if you look how many times this huge waste of energy actually achieves something it is very low. Surely energy would be better spent doing productive things?

And thats the perfect example of why the "English style" of football (100mph, chase everything etc) doesn't work anymore.
Players need to be clever now, use the ball,their brains and their energy wisely

 

[mhead bee]

That's right... Some people won't get it until we see the difference!

2 promotions and 2 play offs in 5 years and our highest league position in nearly 80 years.....WTF else do you want to see.

We will ALWAYS have to sell players when the big clubs come sniffing, at least we are in a position to make 5-10M profit on each one to bring in replacements.

It really isn't that complicated, but as someone once said there is none so blind as those that will not see.

 

[kevalutonbee]

2 promotions and 2 play offs in 5 years and our highest league position in nearly 80 years.....WTF else do you want to see.

We will ALWAYS have to sell players when the big clubs come sniffing, at least we are in a position to make 5-10M profit on each one to bring in replacements.

It really isn't that complicated, but as someone once said there is none so blind as those that will not see.

I make it two promotions in six years or are you suggesting we all lump on us finishing in the top two this season

 

[The Pipe]

As an old fogey I have been brought up with Clubs appointing Managers who are responsible for determining the players they require, often bringing in players they have had in the past and which they trust

Apart from a few most of those Managers last about a year, at which point they are sacked and the next one comes in and the same cycle begins with the club having to pay another chunk of cash to satisfy the demands of the latest Manager

This system has a degree of success however we are trying something different, looking for " vakue" players and setting out a style of play that every successive manager is tasked with following, thus stopping the regular team replacement

We could have followed the old way and appointed the likes of Warnock et al and History will ultimately determine whether that would have been more successful. However we are trying something different which in the short term may be uncomfortable but ultimately may prove to be the optimum way forward.

We need to embrace the change and probably temper short term expectations. To continue as before has shown to be expensive and no guarantee of success. To never try anything different will always leave the " What if" syndrome

Personally I would far rather try something different and see what happens rather than doing the same old same old with the same result

 

[Ghost]

Walsall Bee and Bobby, if you're not on a massive wind up I suggest for starters you look at the jobs advertised on Smart Odds and Matchbook
Benham actually is employing people whose actual job is to watch football all over the world. This is something that regardless of how big a club is gives us an advantage and I believe why we are picking up rough diamonds and what's his names from obscure places. You cannot just report back and say number 10 had good game for Bongo Rovers or FC Scaldyourself's keeper is blinding. You have to quantify with stats and then if someone stands out then you keep watching them and investigate the player much further.

 

[beeherenow]

That's right... Some people won't get it until we see the difference!

You've just proved my point

 

[Alex]

Well how else are we "gonna be successful on the field "?? By selling best players?

Yes as the plan is that we will then use the money to acquire equal or better undervalued replacements. Football is a business like any other, buy low, sell high. If part of that means that we as fans get to enjoy watching some great football with great players then so be it and I am sure this is Mr Benham's intention, but ultimately the club is going to have pay its own way if it is to have a long term future.

 

[jlove]

I think it's a mistake to see the departure of MW and the appointment of two DoF's and Coaching team as some sort of major sea change in our strategy. It is indicative of a continuum and logical extension of what has been behind the scenes since not long after MB took total control. So, the last few weeks may have appeared to be a complete left turn but it's only been the outward part of a much longer process.

 

[walsall bee]

The difference?! We've just finished in our highest position since 1947.

Yes... But the management that led us to that position have gone!!!!!!!

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

I was relaxed when we were hammering the likes of forest, Cardiff , Fulham... Did we really need to change

But then how do you not know that the recruitment stragegy was already in place but at a lesser level?

 

[nick logan]

Yes... But the management that led us to that position have gone!!!!!!!

But the system that got us the players is in place and being improved

 

[Owlsmoor_Bee]

Yes... But the management that led us to that position have gone!!!!!!!

But the chairman and statistical analysis which played considerable part in it, and the recruitment of several of the key players, are still here.

 

[Isleworth_Bee]

Why's that tripe? He has a point . And an opinion.

Beccause its disrespectful to everything MB has done and will do for this club......................... Too many people willing to stay with the age old way of running football in this country. One of the main reasons our national team is so pony and the big clubs just get richer and richer, whilst the rest of us have to scratch around for a place in the top divisions. We cant spend tens of millions on players, this is why we have to buy cheap and sell high until we are sustainable.

Some people will just never understand the new model.

What a bonkers thread.

 

[Ghost]

I'm sure some people said the wheel would never catch on

 

[walsall bee]

Almost definitely. Either that or the most uneducated post in the History of the GPG.

Why is that uneducated??? The blokes allowed an opinion. And if his worries come true...... Then will it still be uneducated. ? I think he is also worried about the change in man-management, cause we all know we had the best bloke in the job for that, the proof was on the pitch. He knew how to get the best out of each player... We just all hope marinus can follow that act!

 

[walsall bee]

Beccause its disrespectful to everything MB has done and will do for this club......................... Too many people willing to stay with the age old way of running football in this country. One of the main reasons our national team is so pony and the big clubs just get richer and richer, whilst the rest of us have to scratch around for a place in the top divisions. We cant spend tens of millions on players, this is why we have to buy cheap and sell high until we are sustainable.

Some people will just never understand the new model.

What a bonkers thread.

He's not saying anything bad about Benham to be fair, he just putting his point forward and obviously don't agree with the stats approach and obviously pi**ed warbs went when the club looked to be bounding up! There are a lot of bees like that so can't blame him for being a little angry

 

[aawharris]

Why is that uneducated??? The blokes allowed an opinion. And if his worries come true...... Then will it still be uneducated. ? I think he is also worried about the change in man-management, cause we all know we had the best bloke in the job for that, the proof was on the pitch. He knew how to get the best out of each player... We just all hope marinus can follow that act!

I think the major problem with us having "The best bloke for the job" is that he also thought he was the best bloke for the Norwich job...

 

[Billy Hunt]

He's not saying anything bad about Benham to be fair, he just putting his point forward and obviously don't agree with the stats approach and obviously pi**ed warbs went when the club looked to be bounding up! There are a lot of bees like that so can't blame him for being a little angry

Well they, yourself included, need to man up and accept that Warburton quit Brentford. New season's coming. Last season is dead.

Not accepting the stats approach? That's a bit like not accepting the fact that crossbars have replaced a piece of tape. It's there, get used to it. Why try to fight it?
We are still looking to recruit players that will benefit the club, just using an additional tool that will hopefully enable us to find some hidden gems.

Alternatively, one could carry on sulking. :shrug:

 

[walsall bee]

Well they, yourself included, need to man up and accept that Warburton quit Brentford. New season's coming. Last season is dead.

Not accepting the stats approach? That's a bit like not accepting the fact that crossbars have replaced a piece of tape. It's there, get used to it. Why try to fight it?
We are still looking to recruit players that will benefit the club, just using an additional tool that will hopefully enable us to find some hidden gems.

Alternatively, one could carry on sulking. :shrug:

Agree with you billy hunt, we do have to look ahead. Just annoying to be starting with a new gaffer when the old one did so well !

 

[Billy Hunt]

Agree with you billy hunt, we do have to look ahead. Just annoying to be starting with a new gaffer when the old one did so well !

Honestly, you have to let it go. What's the point in carrying on with that mindset?

We did very, very well when Mark Warburton was here. He chose to leave. I wish him luck, but he's someone else's employee now.

 

[aawharris]

Nick Leeson did well with Barings Bank for a while

 

[Paul O'Brien]

Yes, I'm sorry that Warbs has gone, but I was also gutted that Frank Blunstone and Steve Coppell left. They were the right managers for a specific time and a certain set of circumstances.

I look at it this way: For 60+ years, we've been taking the same approach and it still hasn't got us into the top division. As Einstein is supposed to have said: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." MB stands for Matthew Benham, not Mad B***ard.

It's a case of Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis. (Times change, and we change with them).

For those who want to retain the status quo, here's a lovely quote...
"Tempora labuntur, tacitisque senescimus annis, et fugiunt freno non remorante dies."
(The times slip away, and we grow old with the silent years, and the days flee unchecked by a rein.)

 

[nick logan]

Nick Leeson did well with Barings Bank for a while

and he shagged Anna Friel , the git

 

[Billy Hunt]

and he shagged Anna Friel , the git

:laugh:

 

[Owlsmoor_Bee]

He's not saying anything bad about Benham to be fair, he just putting his point forward and obviously don't agree with the stats approach and obviously pi**ed warbs went when the club looked to be bounding up! There are a lot of bees like that so can't blame him for being a little angry

There is nothing wrong with expressing caution about the increased use of statistical analysis. What I find so irksome is posters proclaiming they don't agree with it. That's like me saying I don't agree with some PLC's announcement about a change in corporate strategy. How can you proclaim to disagree with something that you know no details of which hasn't even been implemented yet ? What's basically being said is "it's new, therefore I don't like it".

 

[nick logan]

There is nothing wrong with expressing caution about the increased use of statistical analysis. What I find so irksome is posters proclaiming they don't agree with it. That's like me saying I don't agree with some PLC's announcement about a change in corporate strategy. How can you proclaim to disagree with something that you know no details of which hasn't even been implemented yet ? What's basically being said is "it's new, therefore I don't like it".

People don't like change , its a basic Human flaw

 

[NorthamptonBee]

Agree with you billy hunt, we do have to look ahead. Just annoying to be starting with a new gaffer when the old one did so well !

I think we get your point, we all liked Warbs, MB didn't and I prefer it that MB is sticking around, worrying about Warbs, starting another Warbs type thread and keeping saying he was the best man is good if it makes you feel better but it isn't much use really, now is it?



Ola from Menorca.

 

[peebees]

and he shagged Anna Friel , the git

Who hasn't !

 

[NorthamptonBee]

Honestly, you have to let it go. What's the point in carrying on with that mindset?

We did very, very well when Mark Warburton was here. He chose to leave. I wish him luck, but he's someone else's employee now.

I'm watching the sea move gracefully, reading the GPG, vodka in hand and agree completely, life is good even though Warbs has gone, please keep up the good work on a thread from a bloke who just wants to keep saying how much he misses Warbs.

 

[nick logan]

Who hasn't !

Me sadly

 

[walsall bee]

I'm watching the sea move gracefully, reading the GPG, vodka in hand and agree completely, life is good even though Warbs has gone, please keep up the good work on a thread from a bloke who just wants to keep saying how much he misses Warbs.

Not warbs I'm gonna miss ... It's the way we played under him

 

[jlove]

Not warbs I'm gonna miss ... It's the way we played under him

... but the players who played that way are (mostly) still here and 85% of the back-room coaching and fitness team are still here; more important, MB and his cheque book are still here.

 

[kevalutonbee]

Me sadly

nor me

 

[walsall bee]

... but the players who played that way are (mostly) still here and 85% of the back-room coaching and fitness team are still here; more important, MB and his cheque book are still here.

Let's hope we keep those players and play like we did most of last season

 

[kevalutonbee]

Not warbs I'm gonna miss ... It's the way we played under him

Hang on.Okay we have a new manager but the players haven't even comeback to pre season training, we haven't even had a pre season game let alone a regular season one yet and we know for certain the playing style is going to change?

 

[jlove]

Let's hope we keep those players and play like we did most of last season

Personally, I'd like to see some defensive improvements.

 

[NorthamptonBee]

Not warbs I'm gonna miss ... It's the way we played under him

I agree, balls to him, let's hope the football is as good, if you had said that and posted a thread saying Bollox to Warbs but can we still please play nice football then that thread would have been lovely.

 

[walsall bee]

I agree, balls to him, let's hope the football is as good, if you had said that and posted a thread saying Bollox to Warbs but can we still please play nice football then that thread would have been lovely.

Fair do